Warriors offer Brand huge contract

[aaprigs311]

I don't mean to "de-toot" your horn, but quite a few people mentioned it was possible Brand would be traded to Miami one way or another. It's not exactly a mystery that Riley is Brand's #1 fan.

[GrandAdmiralDan]

I understand what you are saying about Brand not able to be traded until a certain amount of time. What I am telling you is Golden State worked something out with Brand.

Look, it is evident to me that you obviously have heard some things on this Brand issue from someone who at least has a few tidbits of information.

Not all that long after you first mentioned it, I also became privy to some information about Baron and Brand getting the idea of becoming free agents rather than taking one more year of high salary in their prior contracts, and then possibly joining forces on the Clippers. I certainly had not heard about it before you mentioned it and I looked into it. I think it is a good thing that you are passing on what you have heard, regardless. I likewise have not heard anything about this "Warriors S&T of Brand to Miami" scheme you are now mentioning.

As was pointed out, it is not possible to S&T another team's free agent.
Yes, you've since attempted to revise what you have said a couple times in an attempt to have what you are saying be at all possible. But much of the information you have presented has been horribly inaccurate and flawed. You are not the only one doing this. And it isn't necessarily your fault.
But somewhere in your chain of information, things have become massively distorted from information that has any chance of being true to things you are posting that just aren't correct at all.

Somewhere along the line something is getting screwed up.

I mean, these are pretty critical details.

If Brand could actually do the S&T deal you first introduced, that might make a big difference. He'd sign a contract knowing he was going to Miami to start the season. That's quite different then Brand signing a contract with Golden State hoping that they will stay true to this supposed wink-and-nod arrangement with the Heat (and when teams get involved in this kind of thing that can be very dangerous for the teams). And of course the earliest that could happen is December 15th. When December 15th roles around, Brand would have to hope that both the Warriors AND the Heat had not changed their minds or started to move in a different direction, or whatever.

Big difference.

Golden State absolutely can't can't offer $30+ mil more than the Clippers can over the same period of time as you previously stated.

That's a huge difference.

And once again, plenty of media outlets are screwing up this information in their coverage of this story. This is a pet peeve of mine, because I really do not understand how they run some of this stuff without having it checked first. That contributes to the spread of inaccurate information.

Certainly continue to pass along whatever you hear. I am all for that. You might want to talk to whoever you're getting this information from and question them about the quality and accuracy of the information they are giving you.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

The more valuable contract depends on the discount rate that you apply to it. I know most players would rather just have a high number to brag about, but the timing of when you receive the money changes the value dramaticly. The present value of that sixth year from the Clippers is a lot less than the first year of the deal from the Warriors. Unfortunately I don't have a financial calculater on me, but when I get home I'll plug in the numbers with different discount rates (unless someone wants to do it before me!). My gut feeling is that the Clippers deal with the extra 11 million is not actually more guaranteed money in a practical sense.

[Jez2983]

Surely the Clippers would have expected this from the Warriors? Surely they would know who could offer what to Brand pre- and post- signing Davis? I think Brand will be going back to the Clippers.

[raferfenix]

Wiretap is saying that the Clippers are nervous about resigning Brand----I wonder why this kind of information would/could leak?

Anybody with insider experience want to chime in as to the likelihood to which this is a calculated leak to prepare the fan base to lose Brand?

[GrandAdmiralDan]

The thing I find most annoying in this latest update from Marc Stein on ESPN is the continuation of this myth that "Golden State was poised to give him a deal possibly $20 million richer than what the Clippers can offer"

How did Marc Stein not figure out that wasn't accurate?

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

Stein was obviously discounting to present value like I do. I'll let you know what Stein's cost of capital is later.

[GrandAdmiralDan]

Stein was obviously discounting to present value like I do. I'll let you know what Stein's cost of capital is later.

I'm sure that was not what Stein was doing

It will be interesting to see that discount rate stuff you mentioned though.

Unfortunately if the media ever gets wind of that, they'll screw up reporting that information as well.

[WEFFPIM]

Brand opted out of his contract to he could take less money and fit Baron Davis under the cap. I have a really hard time believing that just because the Warriors are offering him money he's going to take it since he made sure the Clippers would pick up Baron Davis.

[Profound23]

Brand opted out of his contract to he could take less money and fit Baron Davis under the cap. I have a really hard time believing that just because the Warriors are offering him money he's going to take it since he made sure the Clippers would pick up Baron Davis.

Brand opted out of his final year, to take a long term deal with LA while at the same time getting Baron. It was a way to kill two birds with one stone.

Opt out of 1 yr 18 mil, but get a 5 yr 65 mil. What would you rather have?

But now GS stepping in and offering not just 2 mil more, they are offering 20+ mil more. The Clippers can match, but again be right at or above the luxury tax and if you know Sterling he would not do that.

[NeedsMoreCheese]

Brand opted out of his contract to he could take less money and fit Baron Davis under the cap. I have a really hard time believing that just because the Warriors are offering him money he's going to take it since he made sure the Clippers would pick up Baron Davis.

Brand opted out of his final year, to take a long term deal with LA while at the same time getting Baron. It was a way to kill two birds with one stone.

Opt out of 1 yr 18 mil, but get a 5 yr 65 mil. What would you rather have?

But now GS stepping in and offering not just 2 mil more, they are offering 20+ mil more. The Clippers can match, but again be right at or above the luxury tax and if you know Sterling he would not do that.

Not really. With the Clippers somewhere around 30 mil committed now (outside of Baron), if they give those two the contracts GAD stated they could get, that would be 25 mil combined this year. Thats only 55 something mil.
Isnt the lux tax like 70?

[Nebula1]

I'm still not sure the Clippers are anything special. We'd probably go deeper with Brand than the Clip Show will. What a shame.

[BROWN]

so ... basically the clips can still offer more money then the warriors by adding one extra year.
I think brand takes it, but it was a good move on the warriors part to screw the l.a franchise

[NeedsMoreCheese]

so ... basically the clips can still offer more money then the warriors by adding one extra year.
I think brand takes it, but it was a good move on the warriors part to screw the l.a franchise

Im not impressed. Sterling has been doing that on his own for the last 27 years.

[GrandAdmiralDan]

Brand opted out of his contract to he could take less money and fit Baron Davis under the cap. I have a really hard time believing that just because the Warriors are offering him money he's going to take it since he made sure the Clippers would pick up Baron Davis.

Brand opted out of his final year, to take a long term deal with LA while at the same time getting Baron. It was a way to kill two birds with one stone.

Opt out of 1 yr 18 mil, but get a 5 yr 65 mil. What would you rather have?

But now GS stepping in and offering not just 2 mil more, they are offering 20+ mil more. The Clippers can match, but again be right at or above the luxury tax and if you know Sterling he would not do that.

Dude!

How are you still screwing up the numbers so massively? I went over the numbers in quite a bit of detail.
The Clippers can offer Brand WAAAY more than 5 years $65 mil.
Try $86.8175 mil over 5 years or $108.70125 mil over 6 years. The Clippers can offer Brand more than $65 mil in just 4 years at $66.4405 mil

I see you've migrated down from the 30+ mil difference you were claiming earlier in this thread and are now claiming a $20+ mil difference, but where is THAT number coming from? That is wrong as well.

And what in the world is leading you to incorrectly mention the Clippers being right up to or over the luxury tax after this?

Just how would they be doing that? They'd be using cap space for this deal and they aren't signing anyone for more than their cap hold. There are already empty roster spot cap holds in place when calculating cap space, so even by using MSEs after signing Brand and Baron in order to bring in minimum salary guys to fill out the roster, a bunch of that money is already accounted for with cap holds. If they tried really hard and signed only 10+ year vets to 2 year MSE deals, they could get themselves over the salary cap this season by $3.280644 mil (barring any subsequent trades that stepped up salary through use of the 125% plus $100k rule).

There is a much larger gap than that between the salary cap threshold and the luxury tax threshold.
For example, this past season the salary cap threshold was $55.63 mil and the luxury tax threshold was $67.865 mil. The season prior the salary cap threshold was $53.135 mil and the luxury tax threshold was $65.42 mil.

The system is designed for there to be that kind of gap. It gives teams the flexibility to be over the salary cap without having to pay luxury tax until you go over it by quite a bit.

You've actually got the luxury tax concern completely backwards. If anyone would be concerned about lux tax implications, it would be the Warriors, not the Clippers.

The Warriors are squeezing out cap space to use to sign Brand (or another free agent or free agents while keeping Biedrins cap hold that is likely to be slightly lower than his first year salary and Ellis' cap hold that is WAY lower than what his first year salary is.
Ellis' cap hold is only $1.001269 mil

Depending on what the Warriors would end up giving Ellis and Biedrins, on top of a similar small chunk of minimum salary free agents, the Warriors can easily close the gap between the two thresholds right away, PERHAPS even eclipsing it if they get really foolish with what they give to Ellis and Biedrins. I doubt that would happen, but the Warriors have been known to give out head-scratchingly large contracts (Adonal Foyle? Mike Dunleavy Jr.? Brian Cardinal?) that exceeded any reasonable person's expectations.

[Profound23]

Wow GAD you are a bit of a snob with some of this stuff huh?

I am not messing up numbers as I am not working in exact. So 20 or 30 mil, either way GS offered a lot more than the Clippers did.

I am telling you the Clippers and Brand agreed on a 5 yr deal worth 65-68 mil. GS feeling shafted stepped in and offered Brand 5yrs at the most they could possibly offer. I don't know the exact offer yet but I have heard anywhere from 90-100 mil. If true you are talking about 22-35 mil. So I said 30 mil one time and 20 mil another because it is between those two numbers.

I am not saying the Clippers can not match, maybe that was bad information I got. What I am saying is if they do match they run the risk of possibly bumping close or over the luxury tax soon enough, and if they want to add the extra piece or two like Boston did (I am assuming this is who they are trying to mirror) then they will probably go over the luxury tax. And I agree GS would also be in danger of being against the luxury tax, but I have a feeling they don't care in this situation. It is more out of spite if nothing else, which is not always a good thing but fun to watch.

If it was any other owner I would see that happening. But Sterling I am sure is questioning it. And if Brand is really considering that big of a pay raise it puts the Clipps in a bad situation.

How about this? Next time I get info.....I won't share it. You guys dogged me out when I told you what the Clippers were doing and now you are fighting me about what GS is doing. Man, I told you what they were doing before they opted out. I told you guys last year, NJ was trying to acquire Yi and all I get is flack.

If I have any info it will just remain on the Bulls board going forward. But if Brand ends up taking the deal with GS and being traded to Miami by December I would appreciate a little respect.

Maybe, I don't know everything about the cap rules, or free agent rules or the CBA.....but I know when I got good info for the most part and I share it. I said it before it was on ESPN, FoxNews, in any LA newspaper, on any forum.....the info I have is legit and now I see why guys like wichmae decide to keep it to themselves.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

Here are the inputs I used to get my present values. Both are from GAD.

14.35
15.85675
17.3635
18.87025
20.377
21.88375

Now, if the Warriors really want, they can start Brand off at a much higher salary than $14.35
Here's what the Warriors could offer:
16.801301
18.14540508
19.48950916
20.83361324
22.17771732

PRESENT VALUES
10% Discount Rate - Clippers Offer: $77.09 Million; Warriors Offer: $72.91 Million
14% Discount Rate - Clippers Offer: $68.23 Million; Warriors Offer: $65.71 Million
18% Discount Rate - Clippers Offer: $60.86 Million; Warriors Offer: $59.57 Million

Some of you are well versed in the time value of money, but for those who aren't: money received today is more valuable than money received tomorrow, because if you have it today, you can do stuff with it (such as invest it). The discount rate appropriate to Brand's situation depends on what his investment acumen is. If he's going to put his money in an index fund and get around a 10% return, then the Clippers 6 year offer is better than the Warriors 5 year offer. This rate is probably the most realistic way to look at it, IMO.

If on the other hand, he has a Warren Buffett like ability to earn somewhere near 18% on his capital, the Warriors offer is worth more - just because he gets the money sooner, and can start compounding it.

Now keep in mind, this is comparing a 6 year deal against a 5 year deal. If the 10% discount rate is the preferred way to compare the two deals, Brand may want to know what amount he would need to get as a new free agent after 5 years to make the Warriors offer better than the Clippers offer. That amount is $8 million. So if Brand is pretty certain he can pick up $8 million (over one year) as a free agent in the summer of 2013, the Warriors deal is better even at 10%. But I don't think that is very realistic, as he will most likely be on his way out of the league at that point.

Conclusion: Contrary to my "gut reaction" earlier, the Clippers six year deal is worth more money, unless Brand is an excellent allocator.

[Wade-A-Holic]

I would also assume that there are more marketing dollars to be made for Brand in LA than there are in Oakland.

[El Duderino]

Here are the inputs I used to get my present values. Both are from GAD.

14.35
15.85675
17.3635
18.87025
20.377
21.88375

Now, if the Warriors really want, they can start Brand off at a much higher salary than $14.35
Here's what the Warriors could offer:
16.801301
18.14540508
19.48950916
20.83361324
22.17771732

PRESENT VALUES
10% Discount Rate - Clippers Offer: $77.09 Million; Warriors Offer: $72.91 Million
14% Discount Rate - Clippers Offer: $68.23 Million; Warriors Offer: $65.71 Million
18% Discount Rate - Clippers Offer: $60.86 Million; Warriors Offer: $59.57 Million

Some of you are well versed in the time value of money, but for those who aren't: money received today is more valuable than money received tomorrow, because if you have it today, you can do stuff with it (such as invest it). The discount rate appropriate to Brand's situation depends on what his investment acumen is. If he's going to put his money in an index fund and get around a 10% return, then the Clippers 6 year offer is better than the Warriors 5 year offer. This rate is probably the most realistic way to look at it, IMO.

If on the other hand, he has a Warren Buffett like ability to earn somewhere near 18% on his capital, the Warriors offer is worth more - just because he gets the money sooner, and can start compounding it.

Now keep in mind, this is comparing a 6 year deal against a 5 year deal. If the 10% discount rate is the preferred way to compare the two deals, Brand may want to know what amount he would need to get as a new free agent after 5 years to make the Warriors offer better than the Clippers offer. That amount is $8 million. So if Brand is pretty certain he can pick up $8 million (over one year) as a free agent in the summer of 2013, the Warriors deal is better even at 10%. But I don't think that is very realistic, as he will most likely be on his way out of the league at that point.

Conclusion: Contrary to my "gut reaction" earlier, the Clippers six year deal is worth more money, unless Brand is an excellent allocator.

Between the last contract for Brand and whichever one he signs this year, he could hide every cent in an underground safe with no interest and outside him being a complete moron with his cash, Brand could buy nearly anything his heart desires. When you're talking about earning over 100+ million dollars either way over a career, i'd rather make playing where i want most as the highest priority over some extra millions.

[NeedsMoreCheese]

Wow GAD you are a bit of a snob with some of this stuff huh?

I am not messing up numbers as I am not working in exact. So 20 or 30 mil, either way GS offered a lot more than the Clippers did.

I am telling you the Clippers and Brand agreed on a 5 yr deal worth 65-68 mil. GS feeling shafted stepped in and offered Brand 5yrs at the most they could possibly offer. I don't know the exact offer yet but I have heard anywhere from 90-100 mil. If true you are talking about 22-35 mil. So I said 30 mil one time and 20 mil another because it is between those two numbers.

I am not saying the Clippers can not match, maybe that was bad information I got. What I am saying is if they do match they run the risk of possibly bumping close or over the luxury tax soon enough, and if they want to add the extra piece or two like Boston did (I am assuming this is who they are trying to mirror) then they will probably go over the luxury tax. And I agree GS would also be in danger of being against the luxury tax, but I have a feeling they don't care in this situation. It is more out of spite if nothing else, which is not always a good thing but fun to watch.

If it was any other owner I would see that happening. But Sterling I am sure is questioning it. And if Brand is really considering that big of a pay raise it puts the Clipps in a bad situation.

How about this? Next time I get info.....I won't share it. You guys dogged me out when I told you what the Clippers were doing and now you are fighting me about what GS is doing. Man, I told you what they were doing before they opted out. I told you guys last year, NJ was trying to acquire Yi and all I get is flack.

If I have any info it will just remain on the Bulls board going forward. But if Brand ends up taking the deal with GS and being traded to Miami by December I would appreciate a little respect.

Maybe, I don't know everything about the cap rules, or free agent rules or the CBA.....but I know when I got good info for the most part and I share it. I said it before it was on ESPN, FoxNews, in any LA newspaper, on any forum.....the info I have is legit and now I see why guys like wichmae decide to keep it to themselves.

Calm down. Hes repeating himself because you're clearly not understanding it. Even after he goes into specific detail that the Clippers CANNOT get anywhere near the lux tax you reply with the above post.

In order to acquire more guys with salary higher than the minimum after that, theyd have to trade guys. Which wouldnt really put them near the lux tax either considering outgoing salary would have to be near the amount of incoming. And its not like that would change next year either, the Clippers dont have any guys that have signed extensions from their rookie deals where it would escalate a lot.
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/la_clippers.htm