Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!)

[BlacJacMac]

The core of the team for the Ant window is Ant, Jaden, Naz, and NAW. We need to find players to fit around that.

Who fits that timeline better than KAT? Trade Rudy or others. Yes, KAT is the (currently) biggest piece of the salary pie, but come on. How in the He() are you going to replace what he does?

Again, we are talking about the 25-26 season. Karl’s birthday is 11/15/95. Rudy’s birthday is June 26 1992. In 2025 Karl will be 30 and Rudy will 33. Ant was born August 5, 2001. Ant will be 24. Fastforward two years to Ant’s prime. Ant at 26 will be playing with a 32 soon to be 33 Karl (the age at which big men with knee issues tend to decline is 33.) and a 35 year old Rudy. You are asking who can replace what Karl does, prime Naz. You saw the leaps he took year to year, do you think he peaked? Jaden and NAW will both be better offensively and defensively with those extra years and the continuity. You don’t salary dump Karl, you trade him for a blue chip. You don’t salary dump Rudy you try to resign him to a cheaper deal. A core of 26 year old Ant, 27 year old Jaden, 28 year old Naz, and 29 year old NAW sounds pretty good to me. Also you hope that Minott and Miller have developed behind them, you get some nice players back for the Karl deal, and you have some cheap free agents. The new CBA doesn’t let us keep everyone, dumping younger guys to keep older guys seems like a troubling recipe.

I don't worry that much about the ages thing. Sure in theory, it would be great to have an entire team of guys who are 25, but that's not reality.

Nothing is guaranteed in the future, so I'm not lessening my chances to contend today to keep an imaginary window open longer.

If you can trade KAT for Evan Mobley or Scottie Barnes, then sure. But I don't think you're going to get the player of the caliber you think we will considering his age and injury history.

[winforlose]

How did gutting the bench to keep the stats work for The Suns and Nuggets? Karl costs the combined salary of Jaden and Naz. Would you really dump Jaden and Naz to keep Karl? Or how about trading prime Ant like Shrink was suggesting above (I don’t think he meant to write it, but it certainly shocked me.)

FWIW, I wrote “Ant” and meant “NAW” and corrected it within a few seconds. I agree Ant is the last player you trade.

I missed the correction, but figured it was a typo. To be clear how many of Naz, NAW, Jaden, do you need to trade? Do you still think we can contend without 2 of them?

[shrink]

Championship windows for new teams are often very short, and many times teams see the window close before they even start through it, because they want to keep all their youth, and expect to contend for the next decade.

My big learning moment was in 2008. The Trailblazer fans were confident they would be successful for years with all the talent their excellent scouting department had found. They were overflowing with talent. They had a young budding star in Brandon Roy (24) and a terrific number 2 in LaMarcus Aldridge (23). Greg Oden (21) had missed his rookie year, but had played 61 games in his sophomore season, and looked like a beast. Martell Webster (23), their 6th pick, and Travis Outlaw (24) were on the team, and they had added Jerryd Bayless (20) and Nic Batum (20) in the draft. Channing Frye was only 25. Moreover, they were right behind the spurs in developing an overseas scouting department, and had brought over Rudy Fernandez (23) and Sergio Rodriguez (22).

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2009.html

This team was loaded with young talent, but as you probably realized when you read the name “Greg Oden,” they never got anywhere. Just like their RealGM counterparts, the Trailblazers front office was unwilling to trade their young players for veterans to actually win playoff games. If they had consolidated some of those high value young players for a few additional win-now vets, they could have a place in NBA history. The team led the league in “trade value” that year, by a wide margin.


I think Tim Connelly has done an excellent job mixing a young team with critical veteran elements in Gobert, Towns and Conley. As he said when he made the Gobert trade, adding vet talent that doesn’t necessarily fit Ant’s timeline is still an investment in Ant’s development, getting him experience in critical games early in his career. We have a young team, but unlike POR, we already have the tentpole vets that are helping us advance in the playoffs. I think it takes a mix of both young and old to be successful, and never bought into that “timeline” argument podcasters kept making last year.

[winforlose]

Championship windows for new teams are often very short, and many times teams see the window close before they even start through it, because they want to keep all their youth, and expect to contend for the next decade.

My big learning moment was in 2008. The Trailblazer fans were confident they would be successful for years with all the talent their excellent scouting department had found. They were overflowing with talent. They had a young budding star in Brandon Roy (24) and a terrific number 2 in LaMarcus Aldridge (23). Greg Oden (21) had missed his rookie year, but had played 61 games in his sophomore season, and looked like a beast. Martell Webster (23), their 6th pick, and Travis Outlaw (24) were on the team, and they had added Jerryd Bayless (20) and Nic Batum (20) in the draft. Channing Frye was only 25. Moreover, they were right behind the spurs in developing an overseas scouting department, and had brought over Rudy Fernandez (23) and Sergio Rodriguez (22).

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2009.html

This team was loaded with young talent, but as you probably realized when you read the name “Greg Oden,” they never got anywhere. Just like their RealGM counterparts, the Trailblazers front office was unwilling to trade their young players for veterans to actually win playoff games. If they had consolidated some of those high value young players for a few additional win-now vets, they could have a place in NBA history. The team led the league in “trade value” that year, by a wide margin.


I think Tim Connelly has done an excellent job mixing a young team with critical veteran elements in Gobert, Towns and Conley. As he said when he made the Gobert trade, adding vet talent that doesn’t necessarily fit Ant’s timeline is still an investment in Ant’s development, getting him experience in critical games early in his career. We have a young team, but unlike POR, we already have the tentpole vets that are helping us advance in the playoffs. I think it takes a mix of both young and old to be successful, and never bought into that “timeline” argument podcasters kept making last year.

I am gonna be honest, I don’t understand the roster you want us to contend with. It seems like you’re saying let’s gut the team, eliminate all our depth, (the exact thing that the Suns and Nuggets did,) and pray that Ant is good enough to carry a vastly inferior roster into a chip. So please place a rotation 1-14 down below. If some of the players are traded for name as TBD but in the position you expect them to play.

[shrink]

I am gonna be honest, I don’t understand the roster you want us to contend with. It seems like you’re saying let’s gut the team, eliminate all our depth, (the exact thing that the Suns and Nuggets did,) and pray that Ant is good enough to carry a vastly inferior roster into a chip. So please place a rotation 1-14 down below. If some of the players are traded for name as TBD but in the position you expect them to play.

I don’t think “gut the team” is an accurate description, but every team needs to walk that fine line between depth and elite talent. A deep team with one star rarely goes anywhere. A team with three stars and no depth struggles too. Two would be preferred, but we may be locked into 2.5, if Rudy will take a discount…

(I’ll edit this post later with more detail, but I have five minutes before I’m out the door, so I’ll start something quick.)

2025-26
$45.7 Ant (with the 30% supermax)
$53.3 Towns
$30.0 Gobert (hopefully)
$10.7 Conley (if he can still compete)
2024 1st rounder

One of Jaden $24.4 or Naz $25. Trade the other for ..
1st rounder

$15 NAW (keep if he or Ant can develop playmaking, otherwise trade for a 1st.

Sign Morris only if he is willing to take a short, NAW-like two year deal. We insure his injury, and he can get back on the market at 30 for one last contract. If he won’t take a pay cut, we have to let him go too. PG’s are plentiful, we have a contender and offer opportunity as a frequent starter behind Conley.

Hinkie Specials on Miller and Clark, let Moore walk. See if we can get a second for Minott - otherwise give him one more year (still cheaper than a vet min deal)

If that keeps us under the second apron, use the tax-payer midlevel and/or biannual.

Find ring-chasing vet mins for slots we aren’t using to develop youth in Iowa.

[Klomp]

Championship windows for new teams are often very short, and many times teams see the window close before they even start through it, because they want to keep all their youth, and expect to contend for the next decade.

My big learning moment was in 2008. The Trailblazer fans were confident they would be successful for years with all the talent their excellent scouting department had found. They were overflowing with talent. They had a young budding star in Brandon Roy (24) and a terrific number 2 in LaMarcus Aldridge (23). Greg Oden (21) had missed his rookie year, but had played 61 games in his sophomore season, and looked like a beast. Martell Webster (23), their 6th pick, and Travis Outlaw (24) were on the team, and they had added Jerryd Bayless (20) and Nic Batum (20) in the draft. Channing Frye was only 25. Moreover, they were right behind the spurs in developing an overseas scouting department, and had brought over Rudy Fernandez (23) and Sergio Rodriguez (22).

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2009.html

This team was loaded with young talent, but as you probably realized when you read the name “Greg Oden,” they never got anywhere. Just like their RealGM counterparts, the Trailblazers front office was unwilling to trade their young players for veterans to actually win playoff games. If they had consolidated some of those high value young players for a few additional win-now vets, they could have a place in NBA history. The team led the league in “trade value” that year, by a wide margin.


I think Tim Connelly has done an excellent job mixing a young team with critical veteran elements in Gobert, Towns and Conley. As he said when he made the Gobert trade, adding vet talent that doesn’t necessarily fit Ant’s timeline is still an investment in Ant’s development, getting him experience in critical games early in his career. We have a young team, but unlike POR, we already have the tentpole vets that are helping us advance in the playoffs. I think it takes a mix of both young and old to be successful, and never bought into that “timeline” argument podcasters kept making last year.

I am gonna be honest, I don’t understand the roster you want us to contend with. It seems like you’re saying let’s gut the team, eliminate all our depth, (the exact thing that the Suns and Nuggets did,) and pray that Ant is good enough to carry a vastly inferior roster into a chip. So please place a rotation 1-14 down below. If some of the players are traded for name as TBD but in the position you expect them to play.

Every team shuffles pieces. That doesn't mean they're gutting the roster.

[Klomp]

I think Tim Connelly has done an excellent job mixing a young team with critical veteran elements in Gobert, Towns and Conley. As he said when he made the Gobert trade, adding vet talent that doesn’t necessarily fit Ant’s timeline is still an investment in Ant’s development, getting him experience in critical games early in his career. We have a young team, but unlike POR, we already have the tentpole vets that are helping us advance in the playoffs. I think it takes a mix of both young and old to be successful, and never bought into that “timeline” argument podcasters kept making last year.

With Ant still so young, this has been critical to both the team's and Ant's success.

But I think over time, keeping old guys with him becomes less important. Because he's becoming that vocal leader. He's becoming the alpha. So we'll start to bring in guys younger than him.

[winforlose]

Championship windows for new teams are often very short, and many times teams see the window close before they even start through it, because they want to keep all their youth, and expect to contend for the next decade.

My big learning moment was in 2008. The Trailblazer fans were confident they would be successful for years with all the talent their excellent scouting department had found. They were overflowing with talent. They had a young budding star in Brandon Roy (24) and a terrific number 2 in LaMarcus Aldridge (23). Greg Oden (21) had missed his rookie year, but had played 61 games in his sophomore season, and looked like a beast. Martell Webster (23), their 6th pick, and Travis Outlaw (24) were on the team, and they had added Jerryd Bayless (20) and Nic Batum (20) in the draft. Channing Frye was only 25. Moreover, they were right behind the spurs in developing an overseas scouting department, and had brought over Rudy Fernandez (23) and Sergio Rodriguez (22).

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2009.html

This team was loaded with young talent, but as you probably realized when you read the name “Greg Oden,” they never got anywhere. Just like their RealGM counterparts, the Trailblazers front office was unwilling to trade their young players for veterans to actually win playoff games. If they had consolidated some of those high value young players for a few additional win-now vets, they could have a place in NBA history. The team led the league in “trade value” that year, by a wide margin.


I think Tim Connelly has done an excellent job mixing a young team with critical veteran elements in Gobert, Towns and Conley. As he said when he made the Gobert trade, adding vet talent that doesn’t necessarily fit Ant’s timeline is still an investment in Ant’s development, getting him experience in critical games early in his career. We have a young team, but unlike POR, we already have the tentpole vets that are helping us advance in the playoffs. I think it takes a mix of both young and old to be successful, and never bought into that “timeline” argument podcasters kept making last year.

I am gonna be honest, I don’t understand the roster you want us to contend with. It seems like you’re saying let’s gut the team, eliminate all our depth, (the exact thing that the Suns and Nuggets did,) and pray that Ant is good enough to carry a vastly inferior roster into a chip. So please place a rotation 1-14 down below. If some of the players are traded for name as TBD but in the position you expect them to play.

Every team shuffles pieces. That doesn't mean they're gutting the roster.

Trading Naz and NAW and not replacing their production is gutting the roster. Especially in 2 years when Mike is 38 and you have no backup PG because you let go of Morris.

[Klomp]

Trading Naz and NAW and not replacing their production is gutting the roster. Especially in 2 years when Mike is 38 and you have no backup PG because you let go of Morris.

Amazing how little faith you have in Tim Connelly. Have the last two years taught you nothing?

This is the same type of narrative that was likely uttered in the hours after he completed a deal trading D'Angelo Russell for a semi-retired Conley and a throw-in bust NAW.

[winforlose]

Trading Naz and NAW and not replacing their production is gutting the roster. Especially in 2 years when Mike is 38 and you have no backup PG because you let go of Morris.

Amazing how little faith you have in Tim Connelly. Have the last two years taught you nothing?

This is the same type of narrative that was likely uttered in the hours after he completed a deal trading D'Angelo Russell for a semi-retired Conley and a throw-in bust NAW.

Is TC the one saying to trade Naz and NAW for salary relief or is Shrink? The new ownership plans to trade KAT, not Naz.

[BlacJacMac]

Trading Naz and NAW and not replacing their production is gutting the roster. Especially in 2 years when Mike is 38 and you have no backup PG because you let go of Morris.

Amazing how little faith you have in Tim Connelly. Have the last two years taught you nothing?

This is the same type of narrative that was likely uttered in the hours after he completed a deal trading D'Angelo Russell for a semi-retired Conley and a throw-in bust NAW.

Is TC the one saying to trade Naz and NAW for salary relief or is Shrink? The new ownership plans to trade KAT, not Naz.

Without opening the forbidden can of worms. No one has ever said that.

[Klomp]

I'm just going to say....while the roster isn't filled with "sexy" names that everyone gets excited for, New York has a solid collection of guys who are the lunch pail/hard hat type and would fit in perfectly with the culture that's been built here.

[shangrila]

The core of the team for the Ant window is Ant, Jaden, Naz, and NAW. We need to find players to fit around that.

Who fits that timeline better than KAT? Trade Rudy or others.

I will say, for those who were scared about trading Rudy because he's our defensive "identity", I think we saw decent evidence in Game 2 that says the defensive culture he instilled is there whether he's in the arena or not...

I'm not saying you're right or wrong here but using a one game sample size to prove anything is stupid.

[younggunsmn]

I don't see any way that NAW is only a MLE guy on his next contract.

I agree, I think if NAW reaches free agency, some team will offer him a few mil more than the MLE to shut out other suitors.

But I don’t see him getting to $20. Younggunsmn put it in one of his informational posts, but my take is that right now, (or maybe after he shuts down SGA next series?), NAW’s value is going to be at its highest. The fame and drama of the playoffs have suddenly made the Wolves “must see TV” and NAW has been one of the stars. NAW (and most of the team) has risen his level in the playoffs.

But next year, people are going to forget. He’ll be coming off the bench, and his offensive numbers will be reduced with fewer opportunities. He’s long, but he’s only 6-4 or 6-5. He doesn’t have great playmaking skills yet to be a starting PG. and he’s a little too small to be preferred at SF.

MLE money doesn’t go to key starters. It goes to 5th starters and 6th men, and NAW can certainly fill that role for several teams next year. But he’ll have to get better to join the $20 mil club.

While you see it as a year for NAW's value to cool, I see next season as an opportunity for his value to climb even higher. Obviously, cap considerations will be in play, but just schematically, I could see a team see him as a missing piece. I don't know their cap, but he would be perfect alongside Doncic, for example.

Did you see NAW fumble the ball away twice tonight just trying to initiate the offense?
He does not have guard skills offensively. His handle and passing are much worse than say Bruce Brown.
He's a very good 3+D role player and a streaky corner 3 shooter with decent (not great) overall shooting numbers.

For his lack of guard skills, I think his salary ceiling will be the MLE.
And he might not reach that.
Getting more than the MLE implies a team with raw cap space wants to use it on you. He's not that guy.
He's gonna get paid more like a Kyle Anderson IMHO.

[younggunsmn]

If we cut salary, it's almost assuredly KAT that will be moving.
1. Biggest salary by far, solving tax problem moving one guy >>>>>>>>>>solving problem moving 2-3 guys
2. Because of talent level, best trade value and likely best return.
3. By far best long term salary relief.

Whether that's this offseason or next offseason, I think depends largely on whether we win this playoff series or not.

[younggunsmn]

Trading Naz and NAW and not replacing their production is gutting the roster. Especially in 2 years when Mike is 38 and you have no backup PG because you let go of Morris.

Amazing how little faith you have in Tim Connelly. Have the last two years taught you nothing?

This is the same type of narrative that was likely uttered in the hours after he completed a deal trading D'Angelo Russell for a semi-retired Conley and a throw-in bust NAW.

I don't remember a single poster who had any problem with that trade.
Most of us were just glad D-Lo was gone and hoped Conley had something left in the tank.

Trading NAW or NAZ this offseason would be taking a step back from contention.
I don't think there is any way around that.

Both really like it here and have a lot of gratitude towards the organization for their development.
Whether they walk after next year is almost completely about money (and moving one of KAT or Rudy in particular).

If you move NAW after the season for a draft pick, there is a higher chance of that pick becoming another Wendell Moore than ever being a quality rotation player, I don't care who your GM is.

[shrink]

Trading NAW or NAZ this offseason would be taking a step back from contention.
I don't think there is any way around that.

Do you think trading Towns is a bigger step back from contention?

I think keeping Towns and Naz, or Towns and NAW is the more likely play. It takes high end talent to win playoff games, and while Towns is not a top ten player, he is probably the closest thing to an elite offensive sidekick as we can expect to come to MIN, in this age of star empowerment. He also seems very comfortable with Ant getting all the glory, something I don’t think we could expect from a similarly talented replacement.

Trading any of them sucks. They all seem happy here, and in their own ways, all three have sacrificed to be here.

[karch34]

What the hell is this thread about? 6-1 in playoffs so far and we’re talking about gutting team or accusing people of wanting to? That’s what it looked like to my perusing of the wall of text.

[jpatrick]

Trading NAW or NAZ this offseason would be taking a step back from contention.
I don't think there is any way around that.

Do you think trading Towns is a bigger step back from contention?

I think keeping Towns and Naz, or Towns and NAW is the more likely play. It takes high end talent to win playoff games, and while Towns is not a top ten player, he is probably the closest thing to an elite offensive sidekick as we can expect to come to MIN, in this age of star empowerment. He also seems very comfortable with Ant getting all the glory, something I don’t think we could expect from a similarly talented replacement.

Trading any of them sucks. They all seem happy here, and in their own ways, all three have sacrificed to be here.

I think if we make a move it’ll be to get out of the tax. Does NAW/Naz moves do that? I also don’t think they’ll bring back much value or at least not enough to move their salaries. A KAT move could bring back a young PF plus something, which would cut salary and give us another player on the Ant timeline. I’m thinking a Jabari Smith or Jalen Johnson plus something.

That said, I don’t think we make a move this offseason unless we collapse and lose the next three to the Nuggets.

[cmoss84]

KAT is traded. Just business.
To NY is my prediction.
Something like Donte, Mitchell, Bojan, and future 1st
For
KAT, Wendell, 2nd rd