2023 Free Agency

[urinesane]

After reading Dane's post Naz signing cap breakdown, I think it's even more likely that Prince is waived.

He has us at only 5.85 million left before signing NAW. SInce's NAW's tender is 7.07 million, just offering that would put us into the tax.
We could clear 300k by cutting Jmac and replacing him with a vet minimum.

I expect Prince to be traded or waived before Wednesday.

I think the board and Wolves fans in general have some recency bias with NAW. I don’t think he’ll cost what we all think to bring him back.

Maybe, but what was NAW supposed to do? Not play well in the playoffs and step up when someone was down?

I think you need to reward that... not with a huge contract based on him becoming a big time piece, but he proved that he could be in the rotation for this team, so they should give him a reasonable contract.

Otherwise, you lose some of the value from the DLo trade, since getting NAW seemed like an afterthought at the time, but now makes the trade look even more lopsided for the Wolves (especially if they get another guy that fits in MN without overpaying).

[moss_is_1]

Clearly will have to move Prince or even Slomo depending on the return for a guard. I think Slomo is really a 4 and Prince more of a 3. Washington is for sure who I'm looking at to get Tyus, Morris, or Wright.

Otherwise using Prince's deal to a tax team to try and get some asset might be worth it.

I like Naw, but don't think he's a necessity with our wing depth and Moore/Clarke/Minott waiting in the wings.

[Mattya]

Do we have space to sign Dennis Smith Jr, while keeping NAW and Prince? If so I think you could maybe get a second rounder for Prince at the deadline instead of just releasing him.

[minimus]

Do we have space to sign Dennis Smith Jr, while keeping NAW and Prince? If so I think you could maybe get a second rounder for Prince at the deadline instead of just releasing him.

No, we only have 5.85 mil for NAW

[MN7725]

Do we have space to sign Dennis Smith Jr, while keeping NAW and Prince? If so I think you could maybe get a second rounder for Prince at the deadline instead of just releasing him.

will DSJ get more than minimum?

[slick21]

Do we have space to sign Dennis Smith Jr, while keeping NAW and Prince? If so I think you could maybe get a second rounder for Prince at the deadline instead of just releasing him.

will DSJ get more than minimum?

Why DSJ? He shot 21.6% and 22.2% from behind the arc the past 2 seasons.

[BlacJacMac]

Do we have space to sign Dennis Smith Jr, while keeping NAW and Prince? If so I think you could maybe get a second rounder for Prince at the deadline instead of just releasing him.

will DSJ get more than minimum?

Why DSJ? He shot 21.6% and 22.2% from behind the arc the past 2 seasons.

He had 5 minutes where he looked like a player, but then turned back into DSJ.

Credit to him for improving a ton as a defender, but that's really his only NBA skill.

[minimus]

will DSJ get more than minimum?

Why DSJ? He shot 21.6% and 22.2% from behind the arc the past 2 seasons.

He had 5 minutes where he looked like a player, but then turned back into DSJ.

Credit to him for improving a ton as a defender, but that's really his only NBA skill.

Last season DSJ played at elite level in defense.

[slick21]

Why DSJ? He shot 21.6% and 22.2% from behind the arc the past 2 seasons.

He had 5 minutes where he looked like a player, but then turned back into DSJ.

Credit to him for improving a ton as a defender, but that's really his only NBA skill.

Last season DSJ played at elite level in defense.

I think the Wolves desperately need shooting. I'd try to sign Aaron Holiday as back-up PG.

[Devilzsidewalk]

After reading Dane's post Naz signing cap breakdown, I think it's even more likely that Prince is waived.

He has us at only 5.85 million left before signing NAW. SInce's NAW's tender is 7.07 million, just offering that would put us into the tax.
We could clear 300k by cutting Jmac and replacing him with a vet minimum.

I expect Prince to be traded or waived before Wednesday.

I think the board and Wolves fans in general have some recency bias with NAW. I don’t think he’ll cost what we all think to bring him back.

I don't think so either. My guess is that with these new rules, teams aren't going to have a bullish mindsets on guys like NAW. He's been a borderline NBA player for pretty much his entire career. He had a nice run with Utah, came to MN and after a nice start, was unplayable for long stretches. Then he had a decent run in the playoffs. I'd be really surprised if that was enough for a team to throw a nice offer at him. Especially since there looks to be quite a few rotation level guards out there.

[BlacJacMac]

Why DSJ? He shot 21.6% and 22.2% from behind the arc the past 2 seasons.

He had 5 minutes where he looked like a player, but then turned back into DSJ.

Credit to him for improving a ton as a defender, but that's really his only NBA skill.

Last season DSJ played at elite level in defense.

And the opposite on offense.

[Mattya]

He had 5 minutes where he looked like a player, but then turned back into DSJ.

Credit to him for improving a ton as a defender, but that's really his only NBA skill.

Last season DSJ played at elite level in defense.

And the opposite on offense.

Where are you gonna find elite level offense for anywhere close to what we can offer?

[shrink]

Do we have space to sign Dennis Smith Jr, while keeping NAW and Prince? If so I think you could maybe get a second rounder for Prince at the deadline instead of just releasing him.

No, we only have 5.85 mil for NAW

I think I’m going to pass on Dane including Nate Knight, and use the number $7.84 mil, with two spots to fill (keeping Prince).

If one is a $2 mil vet min deal, we can offer $5.84.

However, teams want to have some wiggle room under the lux, to sign ten day contracts and whatever, so I don’t think anything above $5.6 is practical.

[shrink]

After reading Dane's post Naz signing cap breakdown, I think it's even more likely that Prince is waived.

He has us at only 5.85 million left before signing NAW. SInce's NAW's tender is 7.07 million, just offering that would put us into the tax.
We could clear 300k by cutting Jmac and replacing him with a vet minimum.

I expect Prince to be traded or waived before Wednesday.

I think the board and Wolves fans in general have some recency bias with NAW. I don’t think he’ll cost what we all think to bring him back.

I don't think so either. My guess is that with these new rules, teams aren't going to have a bullish mindsets on guys like NAW. He's been a borderline NBA player for pretty much his entire career. He had a nice run with Utah, came to MN and after a nice start, was unplayable for long stretches. Then he had a decent run in the playoffs. I'd be really surprised if that was enough for a team to throw a nice offer at him. Especially since there looks to be quite a few rotation level guards out there.

I agree. Before he came to MIN, who was desperate for any guard help with Nowell and JMac’s problems, NAW was getting DNP-CD’d in Utah for about 40% of his games. MIN isn’t going to give him his $7 mil qualifying offer, and if he doesn’t take a much lower extension offer, he’ll become a UFA. HoopsHype has him listed as the 18th best free agent SG.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/2023-nba-free-agent-top-shooting-guards/

[wolves_89]

I think the board and Wolves fans in general have some recency bias with NAW. I don’t think he’ll cost what we all think to bring him back.

I don't think so either. My guess is that with these new rules, teams aren't going to have a bullish mindsets on guys like NAW. He's been a borderline NBA player for pretty much his entire career. He had a nice run with Utah, came to MN and after a nice start, was unplayable for long stretches. Then he had a decent run in the playoffs. I'd be really surprised if that was enough for a team to throw a nice offer at him. Especially since there looks to be quite a few rotation level guards out there.

I agree. Before he came to MIN, who was desperate for any guard help with Nowell and JMac’s problems, NAW was getting DNP-CD’d in Utah for about 40% of his games. Youngguns is right, MIN isn’t going to give him his $7 mil qualifying offer, and he’ll become a UFA. HoopsHype has him listed as the 18th best free agent SG.

I would bet that the Wolves do give NAW a qualifying offer. Restricted free agency greatly favors the team and there isn't much downside to the offer. It's extremely rare that a player accepts the offer and that would be especially true for NAW whose market value is only around $1M/year less the QO.

[shrink]

I don't think so either. My guess is that with these new rules, teams aren't going to have a bullish mindsets on guys like NAW. He's been a borderline NBA player for pretty much his entire career. He had a nice run with Utah, came to MN and after a nice start, was unplayable for long stretches. Then he had a decent run in the playoffs. I'd be really surprised if that was enough for a team to throw a nice offer at him. Especially since there looks to be quite a few rotation level guards out there.

I agree. Before he came to MIN, who was desperate for any guard help with Nowell and JMac’s problems, NAW was getting DNP-CD’d in Utah for about 40% of his games. Youngguns is right, MIN isn’t going to give him his $7 mil qualifying offer, and he’ll become a UFA. HoopsHype has him listed as the 18th best free agent SG.

I would bet that the Wolves do give NAW a qualifying offer. Restricted free agency greatly favors the team and there isn't much downside to the offer. It's extremely rare that a player accepts the offer and that would be especially true for NAW whose market value is probably around $1M/year less the QO.

The dangers of him accepting the QO are that he isn’t worth $7 mil, it would likely force us to waive Prince, and that NAW would get a No Trade Clause if we needed to move him in the future.

[wolves_89]

I agree. Before he came to MIN, who was desperate for any guard help with Nowell and JMac’s problems, NAW was getting DNP-CD’d in Utah for about 40% of his games. Youngguns is right, MIN isn’t going to give him his $7 mil qualifying offer, and he’ll become a UFA. HoopsHype has him listed as the 18th best free agent SG.

I would bet that the Wolves do give NAW a qualifying offer. Restricted free agency greatly favors the team and there isn't much downside to the offer. It's extremely rare that a player accepts the offer and that would be especially true for NAW whose market value is probably around $1M/year less the QO.

The dangers of him accepting the QO are that he isn’t worth $7 mil, it would likely force us to waive Prince, and that NAW would get a No Trade Clause if we needed to move him in the future.

The chances of him accepting the QO are extremely small and a lot would have to go wrong in free agency. There's also the possibility that the Wolves could pull the offer if things started to go bad.

[SO_MONEY]

I would bet that the Wolves do give NAW a qualifying offer. Restricted free agency greatly favors the team and there isn't much downside to the offer. It's extremely rare that a player accepts the offer and that would be especially true for NAW whose market value is probably around $1M/year less the QO.

The dangers of him accepting the QO are that he isn’t worth $7 mil, it would likely force us to waive Prince, and that NAW would get a No Trade Clause if we needed to move him in the future.

The chances of him accepting the QO are extremely small and a lot would have to go wrong in free agency. There's also the possibility that the Wolves could pull the offer if things started to go bad.

I am with a previous poster that a lot of people are over gauging the market for a RFA like NAW. I don't think he will cost and arm and a leg. NAW looked really good defensively, but his shot mechanics are still for crap. He is not a target of teams and we should be able to keep him. And we have some flexibility with Prince, Knight and jmac.

[BlacJacMac]

Last season DSJ played at elite level in defense.

And the opposite on offense.

Where are you gonna find elite level offense for anywhere close to what we can offer?

My answer would be not to aim for elite on one side of the ball. I'll take more balanced over being all-in on either side.

[younggunsmn]

It's also important to remember that if we used more of the MLE than the taxpayer MLE, we will be hard capped and not be able to make any signings or trades beyond the tax apron. So even if we were able to maneuver our way into using the full MLE, which would involve letting both NAW and Prince go, we would be severely hamstrung on future moves until next offseason.

I still think the only way forward is that Prince gets cut. Our backcourt depth is just going to be way way too thin in any scenario where we keep Prince, pretty much limited to vet min signings and NAW only back if we luck into a pretty cheap deal, which involves rolling the dice on not extending the QO and making him a UFA.

There is the possibility that we trade Prince to a team with 2022/23 cap space or a TPE big enough to take his contract before wednesday..
There is also the possibility that we use him to acquire another player who fits our roster balance better (I've been pimping a Prince/TJ McConnell swap for a while now).
We can't use his guaranteed salary to help a team dump salary though, you now have to guarantee salary for it to count for salary matching purposes in a trade.

Either way, we will find out on Wednesday when his guarantee deadline hits.
There is the possibility we dump his salary once the new cap year starts, but I'm uncertain he has enough value for raw cap space even at only 7.5 million.