ESPN/SCHOENE Projections: Wolves 28-54

[AQuintus]

No it doesn't make sense, particularly when you factor in Dieng getting more minutes this season. Also,no mention of Wiggins' defense (or Brewer's or Young's for that matter). The projected wins may be in the ballpark but it's a pretty bad team analysis.

It's also ignoring that Pekovic's DRPM was actually better than Love's (2.19 vs 1.54).

Also, I don't see how they can say this...

Realistically, Minnesota is likely looking at a win total in the mid-30s.

...in the analysis, and then have their final projection be only 28 wins.

[Feilong]

We should make a thread before season starts with our win prediction. We'll see in Apr who is The Prophet.

[phonzadellika]

We should make a thread before season starts with our win prediction. We'll see in Apr who is The Prophet.

I don't really have a win-total prediction, but I will predict that we will be playing at a better than .500 level at the end of the season. I think the first few months could be really bad though.

[guest81]

Because Dieng is going to play more minutes, also Wiggins can play the position 4 , Flip said.

Rebounding i dont think is going to be a problem, with Dieng, Pek, Wiggins

by the numbers, the defense didn't get better with Dieng on the floor instead of Pek. Not too mention if Dieng plays more, then Ronnie probably won't get as much time. He was our best interior defensive player last year

By the numbers Dieng was a better rebounder, better stealer, better shot blocker, had a better defensive rating, had a higher defensive xRAPM, and had an equal number of defensive win shares as Pek despite playing half as many minutes.

The teams defensive stats didn't change when Dieng was in the starting lineup when Pek went down

[guest81]

No doubt there are other factors, but my point is more with the analysis. I think its lazy in that there may be other reasons it will be worse, but he chose 2 random stats out of the air, where accurate or not, don't tell the whole story, but then jump to the conclusion that they will be much worse in the interior.

Its a short analysis, that he did in an hour, about a team he probably hasn't thought too much about, so I am not worrying about it too much. Just was interesting evidence he chose to support his argument.

by almost every measure, Love is a better defender then Thad. So why wouldn't the D be worse?

Because you are only comparing Love and Young. What about the rest of the team defense equation?
+ growth of Dieng
+ growth of Rubio
+ wiggins defensive potential
+ Bennett(who if you believe in such stats was 46%oppFG at rim) or is at least in good shape
- Shved
+ coach who 'claims' to focus on defense
+ athleticsm of Lavine, GRIII
+ less min for pek means more min for Turiaf/Dieng
+ shabazz in better shape

And obviously, start adding in Love's rebounding, trading Luc Richard for more Chase,...and there is more to the equation as to why we might be worse as well.

Again, none of this means we will be better but comparing 1 person to another, or 2 stats together...shouldn't sum up an entire team concept like defense.

A lot of that doesn't have to do with the interior D, which was the point of the discussion. They have the Wolves as a solid perimeter defensive team.

[funkatron101]

No it doesn't make sense, particularly when you factor in Dieng getting more minutes this season. Also,no mention of Wiggins' defense (or Brewer's or Young's for that matter). The projected wins may be in the ballpark but it's a pretty bad team analysis.

It's also ignoring that Pekovic's DRPM was actually better than Love's (2.19 vs 1.54).

Also, I don't see how they can say this...

Realistically, Minnesota is likely looking at a win total in the mid-30s.

...in the analysis, and then have their final projection be only 28 wins.

And also claiming that we drafted Wiggins.

[urinesane]

by the numbers, the defense didn't get better with Dieng on the floor instead of Pek. Not too mention if Dieng plays more, then Ronnie probably won't get as much time. He was our best interior defensive player last year

By the numbers Dieng was a better rebounder, better stealer, better shot blocker, had a better defensive rating, had a higher defensive xRAPM, and had an equal number of defensive win shares as Pek despite playing half as many minutes.

The teams defensive stats didn't change when Dieng was in the starting lineup when Pek went down

Which shows that Pek wasn't the issue on defense.

[guest81]

By the numbers Dieng was a better rebounder, better stealer, better shot blocker, had a better defensive rating, had a higher defensive xRAPM, and had an equal number of defensive win shares as Pek despite playing half as many minutes.

The teams defensive stats didn't change when Dieng was in the starting lineup when Pek went down

Which shows that Pek wasn't the issue on defense.

I agree

[Worm Guts]

Because Dieng is going to play more minutes, also Wiggins can play the position 4 , Flip said.

Rebounding i dont think is going to be a problem, with Dieng, Pek, Wiggins

by the numbers, the defense didn't get better with Dieng on the floor instead of Pek. Not too mention if Dieng plays more, then Ronnie probably won't get as much time. He was our best interior defensive player last year

By the numbers Dieng was a better rebounder, better stealer, better shot blocker, had a better defensive rating, had a higher defensive xRAPM, and had an equal number of defensive win shares as Pek despite playing half as many minutes.

Everything I look at shows Pek with a higher defensive RAPM

[C.lupus]

I was going off this:
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/teams/MIN.html

[Worm Guts]

I was going off this:
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/teams/MIN.html

Thanks. I think I misread what I was looking at

[urinesane]

The teams defensive stats didn't change when Dieng was in the starting lineup when Pek went down

Which shows that Pek wasn't the issue on defense.

I agree

Which means...

[Foye]

No doubt there are other factors, but my point is more with the analysis. I think its lazy in that there may be other reasons it will be worse, but he chose 2 random stats out of the air, where accurate or not, don't tell the whole story, but then jump to the conclusion that they will be much worse in the interior.

Its a short analysis, that he did in an hour, about a team he probably hasn't thought too much about, so I am not worrying about it too much. Just was interesting evidence he chose to support his argument.

by almost every measure, Love is a better defender then Thad. So why wouldn't the D be worse?

Because Dieng is going to play more minutes, also Wiggins can play the position 4 , Flip said.

Rebounding i dont think is going to be a problem, with Dieng, Pek, Wiggins

We really don't want Wiggins to be banged up at the 4 spot. That's the worst thing we could do.

[Merc_Porto]

by almost every measure, Love is a better defender then Thad. So why wouldn't the D be worse?

Because Dieng is going to play more minutes, also Wiggins can play the position 4 , Flip said.

Rebounding i dont think is going to be a problem, with Dieng, Pek, Wiggins

We really don't want Wiggins to be banged up at the 4 spot. That's the worst thing we could do.

If we need that for win some games i dont see the problem, and was Flip that said, Wiggins can play the 2 3 And 4. He is that special on defense.

I even put Barea at center if we need to win some games... lol

[slinky]

by almost every measure, Love is a better defender then Thad. So why wouldn't the D be worse?

Because you are only comparing Love and Young. What about the rest of the team defense equation?
+ growth of Dieng
+ growth of Rubio
+ wiggins defensive potential
+ Bennett(who if you believe in such stats was 46%oppFG at rim) or is at least in good shape
- Shved
+ coach who 'claims' to focus on defense
+ athleticsm of Lavine, GRIII
+ less min for pek means more min for Turiaf/Dieng
+ shabazz in better shape

And obviously, start adding in Love's rebounding, trading Luc Richard for more Chase,...and there is more to the equation as to why we might be worse as well.

Again, none of this means we will be better but comparing 1 person to another, or 2 stats together...shouldn't sum up an entire team concept like defense.

A lot of that doesn't have to do with the interior D, which was the point of the discussion. They have the Wolves as a solid perimeter defensive team.

Agree to disagree I guess I think you could make a good argument that many of those things contribute to interior D. Less players getting into the lane improves or at least minimizes any deficiencies.

Either way, Wolves won't be a better team with Young instead of Love, but add up the sum of the parts, and I don't think we are 'epically' bad either.