Predicting the X-Factor for Minnesota 2016-17 Season

[HitmanCapone]

And which players exactly can handle the ball and create for others from the bench outside of Dunn and Bjelica?

I think we had this conversation a year ago already. Bjelica's potential is being wasted if you use him just as a stretch 4, he's not a great 3 point shooter and isn't a great defender. When you think of a solid stretch 4, you want him to stretch the floor with high 3pt% and be an above average defender. Bjelica's strong suits are drive and kick offense, passing, cuts, ball handling, transition, and only after that the 3 point shot.

If you think that Thibs will give a rookie PG the keys to run the bench offense 24/7 and just let him turn it over at a high rate, you're mistaken. A lot of people here are just expecting way too much out of Dunn. I don't see who would be the ball handler and passer outside of Dunn who probably won't be able to carry the whole bench offensive load, except if it's Bjelica. Bazz tunnel visions every time and he is just an isolation type of player, Rush is just a spot up wing and Aldrich will be in the paint and it remains to be seen how much we'll be able to utilize him to create down low. What I think is that a productive play-making Bjelica is exactly what our bench needs and that it's the reason why he could be the X-factor, and that's why we didn't hear much about Wolves being eager to trade him. It makes too much sense to me that Thibs thinks this way.

See and there is the problem, you're talking strictly as a bench role. Sure if he can be happy getting 30-40% of the touches for those 12 or so mpg I have no problem with that but I just don't see how you or anyone else can nominate him as the X-Factor if your speaking stictly as a bench guy.

Oh and to answer your question, Tyus & Bazz can both handle the ball and I'd trust either one of them bringing the ball up the court to set the offense up over Bjelica and I haven't even mentioned Dunn who whether or not you agree with it should be bringing the ball up the court over Bjelica

Firstly, Tyus isn't projected to be in the rotation at all, and Bazz, well, NewWolvesOrder responded to you there.

Secondly, being in the bench role doesn't mean 12 minutes on average, that would mean that we're playing the starter in front of Bjelica 36 minutes per game which, ideally, we don't really want anyone to average. Given that Dieng is most probably our weakest starter (unless Lavine starts like he did last season) and he's projected to be our starting PF, then Bjelica can get around 20 minutes or even more, depending on whether he shows signs that he could be the X factor. He could do a lot of the playmaking while sharing the court with Dunn, while the smaller bit where he plays with Rubio he would have a few plays given to him to create, which would give him around 30-40% of those 20 minutes where he's being the playmaker. In the 60%-70% percent of his play time where he's not being given the ball, he could be the cutter, the stretch 4, a positive element to the offense where the ball moves a lot, a drive-and-kick player, solid in transition etc. His bbiq would allow him to fit into Thibs' schemes and his length and decent mobility would allow him to be a good help defender.

The reason people voted the way they voted is because they know what's going on, while, frankly, you don't.

I'm sorry did you not ask which players could handle the ball and create for other players?

I don't agree with what NWO said and just because people agree with him doesn't make him right. What I seen from Bjelica as the season went on was a guy on a stage that was too big for him. Passing up open looks and having heavy hands now maybe and hopefully for our Wolves season he just hit a wall but I can't just hand a guy who looked like a deer in head lights all that time trying to be the playmaker especially when he struggled with that exact same role his rookie season & I haven't even mentioned how much deeper this team is compared to last year.

As for the 12mpg comment I was just kind of going off of our head coach's style with having small rotations and not really sharing minutes, maybe that got more blown up than I realize or maybe he has learned from his mistakes idk.

As for who knows we'll just wait and see at the end of the year.

[minimus]

Bjelica played very well with Teodosic for Serbian national team. Milos was primary playmaker, Bjelica played as secondary facilitator. I trying to say that Nemanja has experience and skills to fit the role of best complimentary player. He knows how to move off the ball, can beat off the dribble, shoot from long range, pass and rebound. If Dunn can use Bjelica's presence as advantage they will form dangerous duo. Nemanja should not be first scorer and ballhandler off the bench. Dunn should be. Kris should be in "drive and kick", "drive and score" mode all game long. I think Bjelica can benefit from Dunn presence, more than Shabazz, Aldrich or Jones.

[Klomp]

I don't even know if Nemanja will be a regular rotation piece this year. He might be, but he also might be stuck on the bench behind other pieces Thibs brought in.

[minimus]

I don't think so. This team needs veterans, who knows how to play. Nemanja is underrated in this league.

[Klomp]

I don't think so. This team needs veterans, who knows how to play. Nemanja is underrated in this league.

Well, that's why we brought in two veterans in the frontcourt who have more NBA experience than Bjelica.

[Feilong]

For Minnesota: Lavine. A good Lavine provides speed (fast-breaks) and spacing (3p shooting).
For me: Sleep. How to watch the games live (night hours) and then go to work in the morning.

[FinnTheHuman]

I don't even know if Nemanja will be a regular rotation piece this year. He might be, but he also might be stuck on the bench behind other pieces Thibs brought in.

Yeah, the question of KG's and Hill's minutes has a lot to do with Bjelica's place in the rotation. Still, in my opinion, the bench suffers from the lack of spacing, you've got a small forward who wants to post up and attack the rim a lot in Shabazz, you've got Aldrich who also plays exclusively inside, and then you're gonna put Hill in there too? Yes, he has a bit of a mid-range game, but I don't think that's good enough. Then on top of that you add Dunn who wants to attack the rim so it puts you in a position where you have 4 players who like to play inside, with 1 shooter. Rush can't spread the floor alone, so Bjelica is the natural choice over Hill.

Thibs himself has been saying in that podcast with Bill Simmons how in today's nba your lineup can hardly work if you have to hide more than 2 non-shooters and that even hiding 2 non-shooters is very hard and needs to be schemed really well. So how I envision things is Thibs puts Bazz in his corner 3 position, Bjelica and Rush outside as well, Aldrich inside, while Dunn makes things happen by driving and dishing, and Bjelica is the secondary play-maker who puts pressure off Dunn, because in reality Dunn is a rookie who has been turnover-prone in college and I don't think Thibs will let him smother the ball 24/7 like he's Allen Iverson from day 1.

[NewWolvesOrder]

Belly is a super skilled player. It's a shame he's got some wuss in him.

Where was that skilled player last year?

He was definitely there in spurts and during those spurts people were calling him a future starter. But despite his very uneven rookie campaign he still was one of the most efficient players on the team. If we deduct limited minute players like Miller with fluke numbers then Bjelica was #1 on the team in eFG%, #2 in TS%, #1 in 2P%, #2 in 3P%, #2 in finishing at the rim (only Prince was better).
Add to that good passing and ballhadling and you have a skilled player unless you choose to put on bias-tinted glasses.

[HitmanCapone]

Belly is a super skilled player. It's a shame he's got some wuss in him.

Where was that skilled player last year?

He was definitely there in spurts and during those spurts people were calling him a future starter. But despite his very uneven rookie campaign he still was one of the most efficient players on the team. If we deduct limited minute players like Miller with fluke numbers then Bjelica was #1 on the team in eFG%, #2 in TS%, #1 in 2P%, #2 in 3P%, #2 in finishing at the rim (only Prince was better).
Add to that good passing and ballhadling and you have a skilled player unless you choose to put on bias-tinted glasses.

I'd first like to say in response to your last post that no worries about upsetting me, I don't have thin skin and we're all adults here(?) or atleast people who can have a reasonable conversation about players without someone getting their panties in a bunch.

Now with that out of the way I'm not looking to get into this big stats debate. I'm going off of what I personally seen with my own 2 eyes which was a player that was in a stage that was too big for them(I hope I'm wrong, I want every player on the Wolves team to be successful) Bjelica did have an up and down season I don't think anyone is arguing otherwise I just don't buy the hype that some of you guys are putting out and it really makes me wonder if you'd feel the same way if you weren't a fan of the Wolves(again not saying I'm right just curious what people on the outside think as I have no real idea). I also don't see why I have to be biased just because I don't believe the hype but like I said lets wait until after the season to see who was right on this as it's kind of pointless to argue right now when all we have to go on is his disappointing rookie season.

[thinktank]

Dunn.

Dunn is going to give both Rubio and LaVine a run for their money.

[Narf]

For Minnesota: Lavine. A good Lavine provides speed (fast-breaks) and spacing (3p shooting).
For me: Sleep. How to watch the games live (night hours) and then go to work in the morning.

You need to master the afternoon or after-work nap.

[Narf]

Now with that out of the way I'm not looking to get into this big stats debate. I'm going off of what I personally seen with my own 2 eyes which was a player that was in a stage that was too big for them(I hope I'm wrong, I want every player on the Wolves team to be successful) Bjelica did have an up and down season I don't think anyone is arguing otherwise I just don't buy the hype that some of you guys are putting out and it really makes me wonder if you'd feel the same way if you weren't a fan of the Wolves(again not saying I'm right just curious what people on the outside think as I have no real idea). I also don't see why I have to be biased just because I don't believe the hype but like I said lets wait until after the season to see who was right on this as it's kind of pointless to argue right now when all we have to go on is his disappointing rookie season.

It's not hype when a Euro MVP comes to the NBA, that's established talent playing against seasoned pros in a much tougher league than D1 college.

Most Euros coming over have an adjustment period, see Pekovic for details. His first year is about learning different rules, different defenses and defensive concepts, different offenses and offensive concepts, playing on less team oriented teams, and learning new teammates and coaches at the same time as you learn new language and culture.

That's a Euro rookie. That's why they usually struggle their first year. But we know Bjelica is a solid player, and he was better defensively in Euroleague than he looked here. Which means he'll be better on both sides of the ball once he's adjusted to the rule changes.

[HitmanCapone]

Now with that out of the way I'm not looking to get into this big stats debate. I'm going off of what I personally seen with my own 2 eyes which was a player that was in a stage that was too big for them(I hope I'm wrong, I want every player on the Wolves team to be successful) Bjelica did have an up and down season I don't think anyone is arguing otherwise I just don't buy the hype that some of you guys are putting out and it really makes me wonder if you'd feel the same way if you weren't a fan of the Wolves(again not saying I'm right just curious what people on the outside think as I have no real idea). I also don't see why I have to be biased just because I don't believe the hype but like I said lets wait until after the season to see who was right on this as it's kind of pointless to argue right now when all we have to go on is his disappointing rookie season.

It's not hype when a Euro MVP comes to the NBA, that's established talent playing against seasoned pros in a much tougher league than D1 college.

Most Euros coming over have an adjustment period, see Pekovic for details. His first year is about learning different rules, different defenses and defensive concepts, different offenses and offensive concepts, playing on less team oriented teams, and learning new teammates and coaches at the same time as you learn new language and culture.

That's a Euro rookie. That's why they usually struggle their first year. But we know Bjelica is a solid player, and he was better defensively in Euroleague than he looked here. Which means he'll be better on both sides of the ball once he's adjusted to the rule changes.

Look like I previously said to another user I'm not looking to get into a back and forth over something neither of us know about we can all see at the end of the year, if at that time I was wrong bring all the hate or I told you so's that you want to.

The only thing that I would really like to comment on because I haven't really talked about it is yes Bjelica was a rookie but he was also a 27 or 28yr old rookie so lets not try to make some huge deal out of the fact that he was a rookie and if he had even played average I could maybe see they hype but lets be honest he had a very disappointing season last year and not only did he not do enough last year to guarantee his spot in the rotation this year but we brought in more guys who will eat into his potential minutes. All in allit just doesn't look that good atleast IMO.

As for the Euro league MVP. It doesn't matter if it's more competitive it's not the same and there are far more cases of players flopping in the league from over seas rather than success stories. I'm not saying he can't have a spot on the team I just don't think it's going to be as big as what a lot of you think but once again if I'm wrong at the end of the year or even mid way through it go ahead and tell me about it just be prepared that I plan to do the same.

[Mattya]

Bjelica did finish the season strong. I'm cautiously optimistic about him this season.

He was so hesitant to shoot, was not good on defense, and was a foul machine for most of the season. I think any player should be given a year to adjust to the NBA no matter the experience level. If he struggles this season then I think conclusion can start to be made. Unless Thibs doesn't give him minutes he should have a pretty good opportunity to fit into our lineups.

[HitmanCapone]

Also since I forgot to mention this in my post but Pekovic and Bjelica aren't even similar cases so I'm not really sure why you want me to see Pekovic for details. Pekovic was 23 or 24 when he came over and like I did say Bjelica was 27 or 28. They also put up similar stat lines but Bjelica got 4.3 more MPG.

[Mattya]

I'm going to say Bazz but it has so much to do with Dunn and Thibs. Bazz was another guy who struggled most of the season, but started to play better post all star break. So many guys played better once Zach was moved from point guard to shooting guard. Watching summer league you could see how many plays they ran through Dunn and he showed the vision in college that he likes to drive and dish. A lot of his passes were for guys sitting down on the baseline like Bazz likes to do. Not to mention it should help him having someone who can draw the help defense so that he can crash the offensive boards. Also with Thibs focus on taking efficient shots I think we will see more corner threes from Bazz as well where has shot 40% from during his career. Not a crazy high percentage, but if the amount of attempts goes up and his other three point attempts go down his shooting efficiency will get better.

I think most of us know what to expect from our current group of Rubio, LaVine, Wiggins, Towns, and Dieng. They could obviously take another step in their skills and be x factors as well but I think the most visible X-factor is going to be someone that improves a weakness from last year. Dunn as well has some expectations despite being a rookie to come in and make and impact. I would say Dunn, Rush, Bazz, Aldrich, Bjelica, and maybe even Hill could all be x factors since our bench was so bad last year.

[HitmanCapone]

Bjelica did finish the season strong. I'm cautiously optimistic about him this season.

He was so hesitant to shoot, was not good on defense, and was a foul machine for most of the season. I think any player should be given a year to adjust to the NBA no matter the experience level. If he struggles this season then I think conclusion can start to be made. Unless Thibs doesn't give him minutes he should have a pretty good opportunity to fit into our lineups.

He did finish on a much better note which is why I'm holding out hope but like you I saw those same things, especially his heavy hands and his reluctance to shoot the ball even when wide open.

[Mattya]

Bjelica did finish the season strong. I'm cautiously optimistic about him this season.

He was so hesitant to shoot, was not good on defense, and was a foul machine for most of the season. I think any player should be given a year to adjust to the NBA no matter the experience level. If he struggles this season then I think conclusion can start to be made. Unless Thibs doesn't give him minutes he should have a pretty good opportunity to fit into our lineups.

He did finish on a much better note which is why I'm holding out hope but like you I saw those same things, especially his heavy hands and his reluctance to shoot the ball even when wide open.

I think the heavy hands has a lot to do with his conditioning and injury issues to go along with adjusting to a new more athletic league and different rules. The reluctance to shoot got a lot better. So unless he has problems with Thibs offense I don't think that will be the problem it was to start last year.

[HitmanCapone]

Bjelica did finish the season strong. I'm cautiously optimistic about him this season.

He was so hesitant to shoot, was not good on defense, and was a foul machine for most of the season. I think any player should be given a year to adjust to the NBA no matter the experience level. If he struggles this season then I think conclusion can start to be made. Unless Thibs doesn't give him minutes he should have a pretty good opportunity to fit into our lineups.

He did finish on a much better note which is why I'm holding out hope but like you I saw those same things, especially his heavy hands and his reluctance to shoot the ball even when wide open.

I think the heavy hands has a lot to do with his conditioning and injury issues to go along with adjusting to a new more athletic league and different rules. The reluctance to shoot got a lot better. So unless he has problems with Thibs offense I don't think that will be the problem it was to start last year.

You very well could be right and for the Wolves sake I hope you are but I'm hesitant on him and will remain that way until he proves otherwise.

[shangrila]

Bjelica for me. If he's playing up to his potential he makes the bench unit dangerous.

But I think the biggest X factor will be the Towns-Dieng pairing. If Thibs can turn them into a defensive force, along with the offensive synergy they showed last year, they could be the best big pairing in the league.