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RealGM Wolves Capology

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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#101 » by younggunsmn » Sun Jul 23, 2023 12:00 am

https://nbpa.com/cba/

The tax penalties in the new CBA are much stronger than I thought.
Page 184 I think if you want to check it out.

Article VII 183
(i) Standard Tax Rates:

$0 – 100% of Tax Bracket Amount
2023+24 $1.50-for-$1
2025+ $1.00-for-$1

100%–200% of Tax Bracket Amount
2023-24 $1.75-for-$1
2025+ $1.25-for-$1

200% –300% of Tax Bracket Amount
2023-24 $2.50-for-$1
2025+ $3.50-for-$1

300% –400% of Tax Bracket Amount
2023-24 $3.25-for-$1
2025+ $4.75-for-$1

400% of Tax Bracket Amount and Over
Tax rates increase by
$0.50 for each
additional 100% of
Tax Bracket Amount
above the Tax Level


Each "tax bracket" starts at 5 mil over the tax.
So after 20 million you are in the 5th bracket.

It raises along with the cap, so next year would be every 5.5 million with a penalty of 3.75 to 1 for everything 20-25 million over.

Interesting the penalty comparisons between 2025 and later and 2023/24 seasons invert over time, making it less painful early and more painful the higher you go.

And these are the standard rates.
The repeater penalties (starting at 3 times in 4 years) are much harsher.

The first 22 million next summer would cost 49.5 million and the next 11 million in salary would cost another 40 million.
The next 11 million after that would cost 50 million in tax.
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#102 » by shrink » Sun Jul 23, 2023 3:01 am

Those are the same lux tax rates as we have right now.

In 2025, they will make it less expensive for teams to lightly cross the lux threshold, and make the penalties for going well over the lux more expensive. This is probably a consolation to the Players Association for the penalties of the second apron, to try to maintain overall NBA payroll.
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#103 » by younggunsmn » Sun Jul 23, 2023 3:26 am

Edited. I meant 2023-25 seasons and not old CBA when I wrote the part about the rate increases.
Still very punitive.

Much more painful than in my previous preconceptions.
33 Million over (which is also a rough ballpark estimate for running it back plus Conley next year and letting Anderson walk, maybe a little less) will be worth almost 90 million in tax penalties next summer, plus another 15-20 million in lost payouts to non-tax teams (Non Tax teams got 17.3 million each this year).

2025 would cost 52.5 for the first 24.2 million (assuming a 10% bump again), then 55 million for the next 12.1 million, and 65 million for the 12.1 million after that.
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#104 » by younggunsmn » Sat Jul 29, 2023 5:10 am

Hmm, I learned something new today.
I had been operating under the assumption that year to year raises (8% for own team and 5% for new team/trade) were compounded.
This is not the case.
Year to year raise can be no more than the above percentages of the 1st year's salary of a newly signed contract or extension (and not subject to rookie scale).

Page 227 of the new CBA if anyone is curious
https://nbpa.com/cba/

With that in mind, I can formulate some more precise numbers for KAT, assuming the max 10% cap bump next summer:.
(Math - 2023/24 cap (136,021,000) X (1.10), x.35) = 52,368,085
Year to Year Raises = 52,368,085 X 1.08 = 4,189,447

KAT
2024/25 - 52,368,085
2025/26 - 56,557,532
2026/27 - 60,746,979
2027/28 - 64,936,426
Total = 234,609,022

ANT (supermax criteria not met)
2024/25 - 37,405,775
2025/26 - 40,398,237
2026/27 - 43,390,699
2027/28 - 46,383,161
2028/29 - 49,375,623
Total = 254,390,270
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#105 » by younggunsmn » Sun Jul 30, 2023 7:30 pm

1 Rudy Gobert $ 41,000,000
2 Karl-Anthony Towns $ 36,016,200
3 Mike Conley Jr. $ 24,360,000
4 Anthony Edwards $ 13,534,817
5 Naz Reid $ 12,950,400
6 Kyle Anderson $ 9,219,512
7 Shake Milton $ 5,000,000
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker $ 4,687,500
9 Troy Brown Jr. $ 4,000,000
10 Jaden McDaniels $ 3,901,399
11 Wendell Moore $ 2,421,720
12 Jordan McLaughlin $ 2,320,000
13 Leonard Miller $$1,801,769
14 Josh Minott $ 1,719,864

Total: 162,933,181
Luxury Tax: 165,294,000

Space below tax: 2,360,819

2 way players:
Garza
Clark

Gobert has 2 million in incentives in his contract too:
Rudy Gobert's contract includes an All-Defensive 1st Team bonus for $500,000, a $1,000,000 bonus for making the All-Star Game and two bonuses worth $250,000 each that factor in defensive rating and rebounds per game, according to Bobby Marks.

Bumping this to the top for visibility.
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#106 » by shrink » Tue Oct 17, 2023 6:59 pm

I just wanted to mention that MIN is still carrying a TPE of $3,688,117, from the DLo trade.

Since we are close to the lux, we may not use it before it expires next year, but it’s a nice extra piece of flexibility.

That trade keeps giving and giving ..! MIN added one of the three seconds they got in the trade (2026 UTA 2nd) to their own 2028 MIN 2nd, to get Leonard Miller. They still have the lesser of 2024 WAS or MEM 2nd and 2025 UTA 2nd.
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#107 » by Klomp » Tue Oct 17, 2023 7:27 pm

shrink wrote:I just wanted to mention that MIN is still carrying a TPE of $3,688,117, from the DLo trade.

Since we are close to the lux, we may not use it before it expires next year, but it’s a nice extra piece of flexibility.

That trade keeps giving and giving ..! MIN added one of the three seconds they got in the trade (2026 UTA 2nd) to their own 2028 MIN 2nd, to get Leonard Miller. They still have the lesser of 2024 WAS or MEM 2nd and 2025 UTA 2nd.

Could we do something like OKC did? Use it to "acquire" someone maybe with a partial guarantee that we end up waiving and get a pick for our trouble?
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#108 » by shrink » Tue Oct 17, 2023 8:19 pm

Klomp wrote:
shrink wrote:I just wanted to mention that MIN is still carrying a TPE of $3,688,117, from the DLo trade.

Since we are close to the lux, we may not use it before it expires next year, but it’s a nice extra piece of flexibility.

That trade keeps giving and giving ..! MIN added one of the three seconds they got in the trade (2026 UTA 2nd) to their own 2028 MIN 2nd, to get Leonard Miller. They still have the lesser of 2024 WAS or MEM 2nd and 2025 UTA 2nd.

Could we do something like OKC did? Use it to "acquire" someone maybe with a partial guarantee that we end up waiving and get a pick for our trouble?

Sure, if we can stay under the lux. The waived money still counts against the cap and lux.

Younggunsmn brought up a good point about Gobert’s unlikely bonuses. We’re $2.3 under the lux, but we could end up giving $2 mil of it if Rudy has a super year and meets performance goals. It’s possible we never add a 15th player.
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#109 » by Klomp » Tue Oct 17, 2023 8:33 pm

younggunsmn wrote:Rudy Gobert's contract includes an All-Defensive 1st Team bonus for $500,000, a $1,000,000 bonus for making the All-Star Game and two bonuses worth $250,000 each that factor in defensive rating and rebounds per game, according to Bobby Marks.

I'm not certain this is the case. I found it to be accurate for his rookie extension (2017-21), but not for his current deal.

He was all-defense in 2021-22, but did not receive a bonus. https://www.spotrac.com/nba/minnesota-timberwolves/rudy-gobert-13340/cash-earnings/
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#110 » by Klomp » Tue Oct 17, 2023 10:17 pm

shrink wrote:
Klomp wrote:
shrink wrote:I just wanted to mention that MIN is still carrying a TPE of $3,688,117, from the DLo trade.

Since we are close to the lux, we may not use it before it expires next year, but it’s a nice extra piece of flexibility.

That trade keeps giving and giving ..! MIN added one of the three seconds they got in the trade (2026 UTA 2nd) to their own 2028 MIN 2nd, to get Leonard Miller. They still have the lesser of 2024 WAS or MEM 2nd and 2025 UTA 2nd.

Could we do something like OKC did? Use it to "acquire" someone maybe with a partial guarantee that we end up waiving and get a pick for our trouble?

Sure, if we can stay under the lux. The waived money still counts against the cap and lux.

I'm not exactly sure how it will work in terms of if the TPE would be involved, but I just have a gut feeling that we could see a deadline move like last year where we get a second smaller player asset in a deal who ends up being a key acquisition a la Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Maybe that player has a contract number small enough to fit in the TPE, I'm not sure.
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#111 » by younggunsmn » Wed Oct 18, 2023 2:38 pm

Klomp wrote:
younggunsmn wrote:Rudy Gobert's contract includes an All-Defensive 1st Team bonus for $500,000, a $1,000,000 bonus for making the All-Star Game and two bonuses worth $250,000 each that factor in defensive rating and rebounds per game, according to Bobby Marks.

I'm not certain this is the case. I found it to be accurate for his rookie extension (2017-21), but not for his current deal.

He was all-defense in 2021-22, but did not receive a bonus. https://www.spotrac.com/nba/minnesota-timberwolves/rudy-gobert-13340/cash-earnings/


I'm just going off of the wolves page at hoopshype for the Gobert incentive info, they seem to be pretty accurate as far as salary sites go.
https://hoopshype.com/salaries/minnesota_timberwolves/

The fact that the wolves would currently be able to fit those incentives under the luxury tax, and are unwilling to fill a 15th roster spot, leads me to believe that info is accurate.
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#112 » by Klomp » Wed Oct 18, 2023 8:17 pm

younggunsmn wrote:
Klomp wrote:
younggunsmn wrote:Rudy Gobert's contract includes an All-Defensive 1st Team bonus for $500,000, a $1,000,000 bonus for making the All-Star Game and two bonuses worth $250,000 each that factor in defensive rating and rebounds per game, according to Bobby Marks.

I'm not certain this is the case. I found it to be accurate for his rookie extension (2017-21), but not for his current deal.

He was all-defense in 2021-22, but did not receive a bonus. https://www.spotrac.com/nba/minnesota-timberwolves/rudy-gobert-13340/cash-earnings/


I'm just going off of the wolves page at hoopshype for the Gobert incentive info, they seem to be pretty accurate as far as salary sites go.
https://hoopshype.com/salaries/minnesota_timberwolves/

The fact that the wolves would currently be able to fit those incentives under the luxury tax, and are unwilling to fill a 15th roster spot, leads me to believe that info is accurate.

The Marks article that is linked under the "More" section is from 2017 season, when he signed his rookie extension. There has been no indication that it transferred over to his current deal. It said to email them if you see something wrong, and I'm going to ask them about it (we'll see if it's an active email address).
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#113 » by Klomp » Thu Oct 19, 2023 7:36 pm

Klomp wrote:
younggunsmn wrote:
Klomp wrote:I'm not certain this is the case. I found it to be accurate for his rookie extension (2017-21), but not for his current deal.

He was all-defense in 2021-22, but did not receive a bonus. https://www.spotrac.com/nba/minnesota-timberwolves/rudy-gobert-13340/cash-earnings/


I'm just going off of the wolves page at hoopshype for the Gobert incentive info, they seem to be pretty accurate as far as salary sites go.
https://hoopshype.com/salaries/minnesota_timberwolves/

The fact that the wolves would currently be able to fit those incentives under the luxury tax, and are unwilling to fill a 15th roster spot, leads me to believe that info is accurate.

The Marks article that is linked under the "More" section is from 2017 season, when he signed his rookie extension. There has been no indication that it transferred over to his current deal. It said to email them if you see something wrong, and I'm going to ask them about it (we'll see if it's an active email address).

Note: The incentive information was outdated and has been removed.
tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#114 » by shrink » Sat Oct 21, 2023 2:43 am

Klomp wrote:
Klomp wrote:
younggunsmn wrote:
I'm just going off of the wolves page at hoopshype for the Gobert incentive info, they seem to be pretty accurate as far as salary sites go.
https://hoopshype.com/salaries/minnesota_timberwolves/

The fact that the wolves would currently be able to fit those incentives under the luxury tax, and are unwilling to fill a 15th roster spot, leads me to believe that info is accurate.

The Marks article that is linked under the "More" section is from 2017 season, when he signed his rookie extension. There has been no indication that it transferred over to his current deal. It said to email them if you see something wrong, and I'm going to ask them about it (we'll see if it's an active email address).

Note: The incentive information was outdated and has been removed.

Way to be on the ball Klomp! Now notify the Wolves, so they may realize they can fill the 15th spot!
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#115 » by younggunsmn » Sat Oct 21, 2023 4:41 pm

Klomp wrote:
Klomp wrote:
younggunsmn wrote:
I'm just going off of the wolves page at hoopshype for the Gobert incentive info, they seem to be pretty accurate as far as salary sites go.
https://hoopshype.com/salaries/minnesota_timberwolves/

The fact that the wolves would currently be able to fit those incentives under the luxury tax, and are unwilling to fill a 15th roster spot, leads me to believe that info is accurate.

The Marks article that is linked under the "More" section is from 2017 season, when he signed his rookie extension. There has been no indication that it transferred over to his current deal. It said to email them if you see something wrong, and I'm going to ask them about it (we'll see if it's an active email address).

Note: The incentive information was outdated and has been removed.


Big if true. Would give us a little more flexibility with the bottom of the roster, certainly.
Thanks for digging into it.
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#116 » by younggunsmn » Tue Oct 24, 2023 2:17 am

Updated for McDaniels extension

Estimates with maximum 10% cap bump next year:

2024/25 Estimated Salary Cap 149.523,100
2024/25 Estimated Luxury Tax 181,823,400
2024/25 Estimated 1st Apron 189,580,600
2024/25 Estimated 2nd Apron 201,073,400

2024/25 Estimated 25% Max (0-6 yrs) 37,380,750
2024/25 Estimated 30% Max (7-9 yrs) 44,856,930
2024/25 Estimated 35% Max (10+ yrs) 52,333,085
2024/25 Estimated 2 Yr vet min 2,220,984

Guarantees:
1. Towns 52,333,085
2. Gobert 43,827,586
3. Edwards 37,380,750
4. McDaniels 22,600,000 (+1 mil in possible incentives).
5. Reid 13,986,432
6. NAW 4,312,500
7. Moore 2,537,000
8. Minott 2,019,699
9. Miller 1,891,857
Total 180,888,909

+ 5 vet mins 11,104,920
Total 191,993,829

Player Options:
Milton 5,000,000
+2,779,016 than a vet min
Brown Jr 4,000,000
+1,779,016 than a vet min

Draft Picks
Own 1st rounder
2nd, lesser of Mem/Washington

Free Agents
Conley (unrestricted, bird rights)
Anderson (unrestricted, early bird rights)
Garza (2-way restricted)

1. Towns 52,333,085
2. Gobert 43,827,586
3. Edwards 37,380,750
4. McDaniels 22,600,000 (estimate)
5. Reid 13,986,432
6. Milton 5,000,000
7. NAW 4,312,500
8. Brown Jr 4,000,000
9. 1st round pick 4,000,000 (estimate, early 20s pick)
10. Moore 2,537,000
11. Minott 2,019,699
12. Miller 1,891,857
13. 2nd round pick 1,800,000 (estimate, 3 year Hinkie)
14. Vet min 2,220,984

197,909,893

Into the luxury tax: 16.086,493

Luxury tax bill ~30 million.

First 5 milllion: 7,500,000
2nd 5 million: 8,750,000 (Total 16,250,000)
3rd 5 million: 12,500,000 (Total 28,750,000)
4th 5 million: 16,250,000 (Total, 45,000,000)
5th 5 million: 18,750,000 (Total 62,750,000)

You could cut Brown for a vet min, trade your 1st for a future 1st, and maybe be able to bring Conley back for 10 mil and be right about at the 2nd apron.

That would be 20 million into the tax, with a tax bill of 45 million.
I don't see us going much beyond that, if we are even willing to swallow that big of a tax bill.

Another complication could be if Ant meets supermax criteria, it will add another 7.5 million or so to his salary.

Also, if the cap rises less than 10%, it will squeeze us even more as the tax threshold will start lower.
That will reduce Ant and KAT's salaries by the same %, and the vet and rookie mins slightly.
Might be slightly advantageous for us long term, but really hurt in '24 and '25.
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#117 » by Biff Cooper » Wed Oct 25, 2023 6:53 pm

younggunsmn wrote:Free Agents
Conley (unrestricted, bird rights)
Anderson (unrestricted, early bird rights)
Garza (2-way restricted)


McLaughlin (Unrestricted, bird rights)
Nix (2-way restricted)

Also, Clark has a 2 year / 2-way deal. Doesn't really fit anywhere.

Could save $2.5M and a roster spot by not picking up Moore's option for 24-25
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#118 » by younggunsmn » Wed Oct 25, 2023 11:31 pm

Biff Cooper wrote:
younggunsmn wrote:Free Agents
Conley (unrestricted, bird rights)
Anderson (unrestricted, early bird rights)
Garza (2-way restricted)


McLaughlin (Unrestricted, bird rights)
Nix (2-way restricted)

Also, Clark has a 2 year / 2-way deal. Doesn't really fit anywhere.

Could save $2.5M and a roster spot by not picking up Moore's option for 24-25


Would save about 300k by replacing Moore with a vet min.
Will be interesting to see if they pick up his 2024 option.
Is cheap and a former 1st round pick, but really has not shown anything.
If we are going to contend next year, would be nice to fill that roster spot with someone who can actually contribute.

With the new CBA you are pretty much obligated to fill at least 14 roster spots.
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#119 » by shrink » Thu Nov 16, 2023 5:32 pm

I have been seeing some “trade for player x” or “sign player y” posts, and I just wanted to clarify our limitations here.

The luxury threshold for this season is $165.3 mil. I see no way that the organization would exceed this number, and start the repeater tax a year earlier.

Where are we now? $162.9 mil, with 14 roster spots, and three two-ways. We are $2.36 mil under the lux, according to Spotrac.

How can we use that $2.36? We have the ability to sign a pro-rated vet min contract of $2 mil. We will likely use some of that space on 10-day contracts when they become available January 5th.

EDIT: Mike Conley has a $1.5 mil unlikely option if the team makes the NBA Championship and he plays 60% of games.

Trades will be difficult because we don’t have matching salary that we want to trade. For example, we could legally add Shake ($5), Brown Jr ($4), Moore Jr and JMac ($2.4) to match a salary of $13.7. However, this would create a roster size of ten, and signing three vet min players at $2 each would overall add close to $20 mil, and put us $4 mil over the lux threshold. I don’t think trades are likely, but if you’re looking for trade targets, either look for cheap players, or consider a deal with Kyle Anderson, Conley or Towns. We are playing so well lately though, I doubt we mess up the chemistry with our important players.

At the deadline Feb 8, only 38% of the season remains, so I have the pro-rated Free Agent salaries at:

0 $425,434
1 $684,672
2+ $767,488
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Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#120 » by shrink » Tue Feb 13, 2024 2:35 pm

While we focus on staying under the lux to prevent starting the repeater clock down the road, the owners face a significant penalty this summerif MIN goes over the lux threshold.

If Mike Conley reaches both incentives, it costs the owners more than $1.5 mil (and a tiny lux tax payment). More importantly, they would also miss out on their lux share. Eight teams are currently over the lux, to a tune of over $510 mil in luxury taxes. At the end of the season, the NBA collects these lux taxes and NBA pours the money back into the league, keeping half for themselves for “operating expenses (!)” and dividing up the rest among the non-tax teams.

(510/2) * 1/22 = $11.6 mil lux share

So if Mike Conley hits those incentives it costs

1.5 mil in salary
0.1 mil (some negligible amount of lux taxes)
$11.6 mil for losing the lux share
——————————————————-
$13.2 mil lost

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