The Official Mike Conley Thread

[TimberKat]

For Gobert, he has a player option 46.6mil coming in 2026. Let's assume he is a 22mil guy after that for 2 years. Could we do some like this for 2026: ask him to opt out for a 4 Year contract starting at 2026. So take 47+22+22+22+5(extra) and spread it out for 4 years with max increase each year. So in 2026 the cap hit would be around 26 mil. Gobert gets an extra year and extra 5 mil. We are over the Tax for one year 2025 instead of two?

[winforlose]

For Gobert, he has a player option 46.6mil coming in 2026. Let's assume he is a 22mil guy after that for 2 years. Could we do some like this for 2026: ask him to opt out for a 4 Year contract starting at 2026. So take 47+22+22+22+5(extra) and spread it out for 4 years with max increase each year. So in 2026 the cap hit would be around 26 mil. Gobert gets an extra year and extra 5 mil. We are over the Tax for one year 2025 instead of two?

I think I get where you are going with this, but please allow me to clean it up just a bit. Rudy turns 32 in June. His player option is 25-26. So at 33 Rudy has a choice, he can make 47 million and be a UFA with us having his bird rights. Or he can take a pay cut and have job security until he is 37. This allows us to save money and stay competitive.

The issues are gonna be Rudy’s health, whether he shows signs of decline, and how successful we are to that point. If we win two rings Rudy would probably want to stay and build a dynasty. If we lose in the first round three years in a row, Rudy might want out. The better we do, the more likely we are to keep him. As for why Rudy takes the pay cut. Playing without a guaranteed deal is risky at 33 for a big. If he has a down year he may not get the kind of money he wants long term. Still, 22 is a big haircut from 47. He would need to play two cheap years just to make back what he lost. I don’t know if he is that selfless.

[TimberKat]

For Gobert, he has a player option 46.6mil coming in 2026. Let's assume he is a 22mil guy after that for 2 years. Could we do some like this for 2026: ask him to opt out for a 4 Year contract starting at 2026. So take 47+22+22+22+5(extra) and spread it out for 4 years with max increase each year. So in 2026 the cap hit would be around 26 mil. Gobert gets an extra year and extra 5 mil. We are over the Tax for one year 2025 instead of two?

I think I get where you are going with this, but please allow me to clean it up just a bit. Rudy turns 32 in June. His player option is 25-26. So at 33 Rudy has a choice, he can make 47 million and be a UFA with us having his bird rights. Or he can take a pay cut and have job security until he is 37. This allows us to save money and stay competitive.

The issues are gonna be Rudy’s health, whether he shows signs of decline, and how successful we are to that point. If we win two rings Rudy would probably want to stay and build a dynasty. If we lose in the first round three years in a row, Rudy might want out. The better we do, the more likely we are to keep him. As for why Rudy takes the pay cut. Playing without a guaranteed deal is risky at 33 for a big. If he has a down year he may not get the kind of money he wants long term. Still, 22 is a big haircut from 47. He would need to play two cheap years just to make back what he lost. I don’t know if he is that selfless.

Maybe the question is if he opt-in 2026 gets his $46.6M. After that, in 2027, how much will teams willing to paid him and for how many years? I don't think he will get 30+M and more than 2 years. 20 to 25 seem reasonable for a declining (hopefully not a lot) defense only player. If ARod is all in to win, maybe they prefer Gobert opt in and use the slot to trade for a guy like Beal or Zack. It's too far away to speculate buy fun to discuss.

[winforlose]

For Gobert, he has a player option 46.6mil coming in 2026. Let's assume he is a 22mil guy after that for 2 years. Could we do some like this for 2026: ask him to opt out for a 4 Year contract starting at 2026. So take 47+22+22+22+5(extra) and spread it out for 4 years with max increase each year. So in 2026 the cap hit would be around 26 mil. Gobert gets an extra year and extra 5 mil. We are over the Tax for one year 2025 instead of two?

I think I get where you are going with this, but please allow me to clean it up just a bit. Rudy turns 32 in June. His player option is 25-26. So at 33 Rudy has a choice, he can make 47 million and be a UFA with us having his bird rights. Or he can take a pay cut and have job security until he is 37. This allows us to save money and stay competitive.

The issues are gonna be Rudy’s health, whether he shows signs of decline, and how successful we are to that point. If we win two rings Rudy would probably want to stay and build a dynasty. If we lose in the first round three years in a row, Rudy might want out. The better we do, the more likely we are to keep him. As for why Rudy takes the pay cut. Playing without a guaranteed deal is risky at 33 for a big. If he has a down year he may not get the kind of money he wants long term. Still, 22 is a big haircut from 47. He would need to play two cheap years just to make back what he lost. I don’t know if he is that selfless.

Maybe the question is if he opt-in 2026 gets his $46.6M. After that, in 2027, how much will teams willing to paid him and for how many years? I don't think he will get 30+M and more than 2 years. 20 to 25 seem reasonable for a declining (hopefully not a lot) defense only player. If ARod is all in to win, maybe they prefer Gobert opt in and use the slot to trade for a guy like Beal or Zack. It's too far away to speculate buy fun to discuss.

What I am really curious about is whether Marcus Morris will sign on for next year at 4 million. I think at his age he might get 8 or 9 elsewhere, but here he would have a legit chance to win multiple rings. Gonna be interesting when we eventually sign him.

[TimberKat]

I think I get where you are going with this, but please allow me to clean it up just a bit. Rudy turns 32 in June. His player option is 25-26. So at 33 Rudy has a choice, he can make 47 million and be a UFA with us having his bird rights. Or he can take a pay cut and have job security until he is 37. This allows us to save money and stay competitive.

The issues are gonna be Rudy’s health, whether he shows signs of decline, and how successful we are to that point. If we win two rings Rudy would probably want to stay and build a dynasty. If we lose in the first round three years in a row, Rudy might want out. The better we do, the more likely we are to keep him. As for why Rudy takes the pay cut. Playing without a guaranteed deal is risky at 33 for a big. If he has a down year he may not get the kind of money he wants long term. Still, 22 is a big haircut from 47. He would need to play two cheap years just to make back what he lost. I don’t know if he is that selfless.

Maybe the question is if he opt-in 2026 gets his $46.6M. After that, in 2027, how much will teams willing to paid him and for how many years? I don't think he will get 30+M and more than 2 years. 20 to 25 seem reasonable for a declining (hopefully not a lot) defense only player. If ARod is all in to win, maybe they prefer Gobert opt in and use the slot to trade for a guy like Beal or Zack. It's too far away to speculate buy fun to discuss.

What I am really curious about is whether Marcus Morris will sign on for next year at 4 million. I think at his age he might get 8 or 9 elsewhere, but here he would have a legit chance to win multiple rings. Gonna be interesting when we eventually sign him.

Do you really want Morris? Given how KA's playing, you may be able to get him for 6m.

[younggunsmn]

For Gobert, he has a player option 46.6mil coming in 2026. Let's assume he is a 22mil guy after that for 2 years. Could we do some like this for 2026: ask him to opt out for a 4 Year contract starting at 2026. So take 47+22+22+22+5(extra) and spread it out for 4 years with max increase each year. So in 2026 the cap hit would be around 26 mil. Gobert gets an extra year and extra 5 mil. We are over the Tax for one year 2025 instead of two?

I think I get where you are going with this, but please allow me to clean it up just a bit. Rudy turns 32 in June. His player option is 25-26. So at 33 Rudy has a choice, he can make 47 million and be a UFA with us having his bird rights. Or he can take a pay cut and have job security until he is 37. This allows us to save money and stay competitive.

The issues are gonna be Rudy’s health, whether he shows signs of decline, and how successful we are to that point. If we win two rings Rudy would probably want to stay and build a dynasty. If we lose in the first round three years in a row, Rudy might want out. The better we do, the more likely we are to keep him. As for why Rudy takes the pay cut. Playing without a guaranteed deal is risky at 33 for a big. If he has a down year he may not get the kind of money he wants long term. Still, 22 is a big haircut from 47. He would need to play two cheap years just to make back what he lost. I don’t know if he is that selfless.

There us no way on God's green earth that Rudy Gobert turns down his 47 million dollar option.
He will never see half of that AAV again.

Rudy takes great care of his body, but talk of extending him into his age 34+ seasons is a great deal premature, there is not a very good track record for guys that big maintaining a high level of excellence at 35+.

[winforlose]

Maybe the question is if he opt-in 2026 gets his $46.6M. After that, in 2027, how much will teams willing to paid him and for how many years? I don't think he will get 30+M and more than 2 years. 20 to 25 seem reasonable for a declining (hopefully not a lot) defense only player. If ARod is all in to win, maybe they prefer Gobert opt in and use the slot to trade for a guy like Beal or Zack. It's too far away to speculate buy fun to discuss.

What I am really curious about is whether Marcus Morris will sign on for next year at 4 million. I think at his age he might get 8 or 9 elsewhere, but here he would have a legit chance to win multiple rings. Gonna be interesting when we eventually sign him.

Do you really want Morris? Given how KA's playing, you may be able to get him for 6m.

Remember V8 in 2021-22, now remember him in the playoffs. Kyle has severe limits, Morris gives you a different skill set with different and less alarming limits. Also I want us to extend Kyle on a 20/2 and then trade him into space for picks and a TPE. I want to use the TPE as an MLE and get better.

[winforlose]

For Gobert, he has a player option 46.6mil coming in 2026. Let's assume he is a 22mil guy after that for 2 years. Could we do some like this for 2026: ask him to opt out for a 4 Year contract starting at 2026. So take 47+22+22+22+5(extra) and spread it out for 4 years with max increase each year. So in 2026 the cap hit would be around 26 mil. Gobert gets an extra year and extra 5 mil. We are over the Tax for one year 2025 instead of two?

I think I get where you are going with this, but please allow me to clean it up just a bit. Rudy turns 32 in June. His player option is 25-26. So at 33 Rudy has a choice, he can make 47 million and be a UFA with us having his bird rights. Or he can take a pay cut and have job security until he is 37. This allows us to save money and stay competitive.

The issues are gonna be Rudy’s health, whether he shows signs of decline, and how successful we are to that point. If we win two rings Rudy would probably want to stay and build a dynasty. If we lose in the first round three years in a row, Rudy might want out. The better we do, the more likely we are to keep him. As for why Rudy takes the pay cut. Playing without a guaranteed deal is risky at 33 for a big. If he has a down year he may not get the kind of money he wants long term. Still, 22 is a big haircut from 47. He would need to play two cheap years just to make back what he lost. I don’t know if he is that selfless.

There us no way on God's green earth that Rudy Gobert turns down his 47 million dollar option.
He will never see half of that AAV again.

Rudy takes great care of his body, but talk of extending him into his age 34+ seasons is a great deal premature, there is not a very good track record for guys that big maintaining a high level of excellence at 35+.

He was suggesting giving Rudy 22 over 4 as a way to spread out the 47 and incentivize Rudy to stay long term. It might be an overpay in the late years, but it helps in the short term. I don’t think Rudy goes for it because he needs two years of salary to make up what he lost. He is essentially giving us a free year instead of making money. But, he might take a hair cut of around 10 mil in 25-26 to get an extra year on an extension, (as insurance against age slide.)

[Loaf_of_bread]

Lmao.. if we win two rings .. dynasty .. this place is something else

[TimberKat]

I think I get where you are going with this, but please allow me to clean it up just a bit. Rudy turns 32 in June. His player option is 25-26. So at 33 Rudy has a choice, he can make 47 million and be a UFA with us having his bird rights. Or he can take a pay cut and have job security until he is 37. This allows us to save money and stay competitive.

The issues are gonna be Rudy’s health, whether he shows signs of decline, and how successful we are to that point. If we win two rings Rudy would probably want to stay and build a dynasty. If we lose in the first round three years in a row, Rudy might want out. The better we do, the more likely we are to keep him. As for why Rudy takes the pay cut. Playing without a guaranteed deal is risky at 33 for a big. If he has a down year he may not get the kind of money he wants long term. Still, 22 is a big haircut from 47. He would need to play two cheap years just to make back what he lost. I don’t know if he is that selfless.

There us no way on God's green earth that Rudy Gobert turns down his 47 million dollar option.
He will never see half of that AAV again.

Rudy takes great care of his body, but talk of extending him into his age 34+ seasons is a great deal premature, there is not a very good track record for guys that big maintaining a high level of excellence at 35+.

He was suggesting giving Rudy 22 over 4 as a way to spread out the 47 and incentivize Rudy to stay long term. It might be an overpay in the late years, but it helps in the short term. I don’t think Rudy goes for it because he needs two years of salary to make up what he lost. He is essentially giving us a free year instead of making money. But, he might take a hair cut of around 10 mil in 25-26 to get an extra year on an extension, (as insurance against age slide.)

Actually my math end up averaging around 28 per year for 4 years but starts lower in 2026 and goes up to help the cap. It's around the number you have and likely Gobert will be a Drummond by year 4 but that is the idea

[winforlose]

Lmao.. if we win two rings .. dynasty .. this place is something else

I don’t follow. If this team wins it this year you don’t think they can win it next year? You don’t think Ant and Jaden getting 4 series worth of playoff experience, an extra year of development, and a taste of the mountain top will make a difference? You worry about the championship hangover? I don’t get why it is funny?

[shrink]

For Gobert, he has a player option 46.6mil coming in 2026. Let's assume he is a 22mil guy after that for 2 years. Could we do some like this for 2026: ask him to opt out for a 4 Year contract starting at 2026. So take 47+22+22+22+5(extra) and spread it out for 4 years with max increase each year. So in 2026 the cap hit would be around 26 mil. Gobert gets an extra year and extra 5 mil. We are over the Tax for one year 2025 instead of two?

I think I get where you are going with this, but please allow me to clean it up just a bit. Rudy turns 32 in June. His player option is 25-26. So at 33 Rudy has a choice, he can make 47 million and be a UFA with us having his bird rights. Or he can take a pay cut and have job security until he is 37. This allows us to save money and stay competitive.

The issues are gonna be Rudy’s health, whether he shows signs of decline, and how successful we are to that point. If we win two rings Rudy would probably want to stay and build a dynasty. If we lose in the first round three years in a row, Rudy might want out. The better we do, the more likely we are to keep him. As for why Rudy takes the pay cut. Playing without a guaranteed deal is risky at 33 for a big. If he has a down year he may not get the kind of money he wants long term. Still, 22 is a big haircut from 47. He would need to play two cheap years just to make back what he lost. I don’t know if he is that selfless.

I agree with all of this. Some older players agree to waive an expensive player option to get financial security which Danny Lerouix coined as “years not dollars.” If Rudy plays out his $46 mil player option, he’s looking for a new contract in 2026 as a UFA at age 34. Rudy has been tremendously healthy this season, but it’s a gamble, especially for a big, to play into his upper years. There may not be a robust market for his next deal.

On the other hand, suppose MIN asks him if he wants $90 on the books for three years, if he waives the $46? That’s a security blanket for Gobert, and helps keep him here on a team that will likes, and will probably be contending. For the Wolves, the savings in lux taxes probably pays for those extra years, even if Rudy falters, so they can fully guarantee them. It might be worth putting another $30 mil team option on it as well as trade material, plus Rudy likes his contract to look good to the public.

I think both Rudy and the team should be able to find a financial sweet spot that both sides can like.

[shrink]

What I am really curious about is whether Marcus Morris will sign on for next year at 4 million. I think at his age he might get 8 or 9 elsewhere, but here he would have a legit chance to win multiple rings. Gonna be interesting when we eventually sign him.

I suspect he is gone this summer, unless he is willing to play here for the vet min. I don’t see a big market for him, because he has lost his quickness, and struggles to defend one-on-one without fouling. I’m not sure we’d have the financial mechanism to offer more than the vet min - we likely won’t have other exceptions.

[winforlose]

What I am really curious about is whether Marcus Morris will sign on for next year at 4 million. I think at his age he might get 8 or 9 elsewhere, but here he would have a legit chance to win multiple rings. Gonna be interesting when we eventually sign him.

I suspect he is gone this summer, unless he is willing to play here for the vet min. I don’t see a big market for him, because he has lost his quickness, and struggles to defend one-on-one without fouling. I’m not sure we’d have the financial mechanism to offer more than the vet min - we likely won’t have other exceptions.

I read we have 3.14 million of the MLE from this year. If memory serves we can sign him for that this year and a raise next year. I am not 100% sure about how much the raise can pay, but I have seen guys go up a million, so I assume that is possible. Alternatively it could be tied to percentage in which 10% of 3.14 million is $314,000 which is still 3.5. As you said he has quality slid, and he isn’t getting younger. I still want him back next year and I think that is what they are working on.

[BlacJacMac]

I don’t think they can be working on a contract with him.

[winforlose]

I don’t think they can be working on a contract with him.

My understanding of buyouts is that is exactly what happens. The Spurs save X by doing the buyout. But Morris doesn’t know what X equals until he knows what other teams will pay him. If he can make 3.14 here then X is 3.14. I am pretty sure every buyout player gets permission to talk with other teams.

[BlacJacMac]

Do we even know if they’re going to buy him out?

While I doubt it happens, there are some rumors of the Spurs waiting until after March 1st to buyout Morris as “payback” for screwing them over a couple years ago. Morris verbally agreed to a deal with the Spurs who salary dumped a rotation player and reworked another contract to make the money work for the offer, only to have Morris spurn them and sign with the Knicks.

[winforlose]

Do we even know if they’re going to buy him out?

While I doubt it happens, there are some rumors of the Spurs waiting until after March 1st to buyout Morris as “payback” for screwing them over a couple years ago. Morris verbally agreed to a deal with the Spurs who salary dumped a rotation player and reworked another contract to make the money work for the offer, only to have Morris spurn them and sign with the Knicks.

If they do three things happen.

1. They gain a bad reputation with players.

2. Morris will not get bought out because he has to agree and no team will pick him up if he is playoff ineligible. So the Spurs lose millions of dollars

3. The Spurs make an enemy out of the Wolves, and any other team trying to negotiate for his services. It’s the kind of thing you just don’t do.

[BlacJacMac]

Or they simply don’t agree on a number and he finished the year as a Spur.

[winforlose]

Or they simply don’t agree on a number and he finished the year as a Spur.

Maybe, but I doubt it. They could have told the Wolves to move on. That they won’t buy him out, or not in the Wolves price range. They know he is interested in us and vise versa. I think they may want Kyle from us next year, and with VW’s connection to Rudy they may hope to one day bring Rudy in. In either case making an enemy of us isn’t beneficial to the Spurs. I think there is an excellent chance the buyout happens this week, and an even better chance if it doesn’t that it happens before the end of the month.