2023 Free Agency

[shrink]

I felt we needed this thread, to identify free agents we might be interested in.

If we don’t bring back Naz, NAW, McLaughlin, Knight, Nowell or Rivers, I believe we have about $18 mil under the lux.

The most we could offer a single free agent is about $12.2 mil for the non-tax MLE.

[shrink]

I also wanted to mention that the $162 mil luxury threshold is an artificial boundary to our decision-making. We’re unlikely to cross it this year and start the repeater tax (which was lessened in the new CBA) a year early, but we certainly could do so legally.

Moreover, for you Naz fans, crossing the lux threshold in this off-season doesn’t mean we’d need to stay over the lux by the end of the season, when the actual lux determination is made. Even if you believe we won’t pay lux taxes this year, it doesn’t mean we couldn’t roll it back.

We’re at about $139 for nine players. Suppose we sign Naz for $14, NAW for $5, use the taxpayer MLE at $7, the BAE at $4.4, and two $2.0 Vet Mins (McLaughlin, Garza/Knight) to bring back players and bulk up our payroll.*. This would add $34.4 mil, and put us at $173.4 .. $11.4 mil over the lux. If we still planned on ending the season under the lux, we’d have until the trade deadline to ditch the hot potato.

This isn’t as impossible as it may seem. The key would be to sign these players to tradable contracts, and there is always the option to trade KAT by this year’s deadline, and not next. Or simply pay the tax, and simply brace for the future tax penalty in 2025. It’s had to predict how a season will go - other trade opportunities will certainly arise. Do you feel lucky?


*we could also add even more salary by taking back more in a trade than we send out. Particularly since we have the Vanderbilt TPE ($4,374,000) and Russell TPE ($3,688,117).

[twolves31]

I think it's less than 50-50 we keep Reid, it just feels like someone will offer something we won't be able to pay. It wouldn't surprise me if we keep NAW, and possibly Knight. Lastly it wouldn't surprise me if we trade Prince either getting back equal salary in a pg, or dumping him on a team with cap space to create a little more money to play with. We are going to need a backup pg for sure, wouldn't mind finding someone that could potentially start one day at pg from the draft, trade, or free agency. If San Antonio decides to go after a star pg with their cap space after drafting Wemby, I wouldn't mind seeing if a Tre Jones sign and trade is possible and at what price point.

[wolves_89]

Here are my guesses for free agency:

- McLaughlin and Prince aren't back. They will be traded for cap space or waived (non-guaranteed contracts)
- Naz and NAW are re-signed at a combined $18M for 2023-24
- Knight is retained
- Garza is signed to a Gupta special (counts $1.99M in 2023-24)
- Spagnolo stays in Europe
- Connelly trades for an early 2nd round pick and the player drafted is signed to a 4-year deal (starts at $1.1M in 2023-24)
- The Wolves also have a late 2nd round pick that gets signed to a 2-way deal
- The team trades for or signs a backup PG with a salary around $5M
- There is one open roster spot heading into the season with the payroll $1.7M under the luxury tax line


Rotation:

Conley/FA or trade
Ant/NAW
McDaniels/Minott
Towns/Anderson
Gobert/Reid

[minimus]

My scenario:

- let Nowell, Knight go
- keep JMac
- re-sign Naz and NAW
- give Garza Gupta special
- trade 53rd pick for 34th CHA pick + cash/future assets, draft Podziemski or Amari Bailey
- trade for Yan Madar rights

Gobert/Reid/Garza
Towns/Anderson/Minott
MCD/TP/Moore
Edwards/NAW/Podziemski
Conley/Madar/JMac

[minimus]

So here is the list of backup PGs that IMO we should try to get:

Kira Lewis
Yan Madar
Payton Pritchard
Jevon Carter
Dennis Smith Jr.
Gabe Vincent
Tre Jones
Theo Maledon
McKinley Wright IV

[slick21]

Here are my guesses for free agency:

- McLaughlin and Prince aren't back. They will be traded for cap space or waived (non-guaranteed contracts)
- Naz and NAW are re-signed at a combined $18M for 2023-24
- Knight is retained
- Garza is signed to a Gupta special (counts $1.99M in 2023-24)
- Spagnolo stays in Europe
- Connelly trades for an early 2nd round pick and the player drafted is signed to a 4-year deal (starts at $1.1M in 2023-24)
- The Wolves also have a late 2nd round pick that gets signed to a 2-way deal
- The team trades for or signs a backup PG with a salary around $5M
- There is one open roster spot heading into the season with the payroll $1.7M under the luxury tax line


Rotation:

Conley/FA or trade
Ant/NAW
McDaniels/Minott
Towns/Anderson
Gobert/Reid

This seems to be exactly what will take place if we "run it back." We can stay under the luxury tax for next season, sign Naz and NAW for $18Mish, but would need to be at the expense of losing Prince for nothing or for the backup PG.

Then things will get real dicey for 24-25 with KAT jumping to $50M, Jaden and Ant on their new deals, and Conley and SloMo expiring.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I'd still love to bring Nowell back, haters be damned. I'm betting on 21-22 being closer to the real Nowell and 22-23 being an aberration.

[BlacJacMac]

I'd still love to bring Nowell back, haters be damned. I'm betting on 21-22 being closer to the real Nowell and 22-23 being an aberration.

Unfortunately 22-23 looks a whole lot like 20-21.

21-22 looks like the outlier.

[slick21]

Former Thunder player Semaj Christon has parted ways with his European team and will join Minnesota for an upcoming free agent mini-camp, according to Cesare Milanti of Eurohoops. The 30-year-old point guard averaged 15.7 PPG this season with Derthona Basket in Italy. He played 64 games for Oklahoma City during the 2016/17 season.

[wolves_89]

The free agents I'll be keeping an eye on for the Wolves are Dennis Smith, Patrick Beverley, TJ Warren, and Joe Ingles. My guess is they all end up getting somewhere between the vet minimum and $5M/year.

[Baseline81]

I'd still love to bring Nowell back, haters be damned. I'm betting on 21-22 being closer to the real Nowell and 22-23 being an aberration.

[shangrila]

Our guys:

Naz is a must keep. He might seem like a luxury but with KAT's history, Rudy's age and Naz's timeline we really shouldn't let him walk if we can. There's a real chance he'll seek better opportunities elsewhere though so it might not be up to us.

NAW is similar, though he won't cost as much. Having someone that can provide elite defence at the 1-2 (maybe the 3 in certain matchups) is necessary particularly in the West. If his shot comes around great but even without it he's valuable enough to have coming off the bench as a secondary playmaker and defensive stopper.

McLaughlin can go. I don't know what happened to him, if it was his previous injury still giving him issues or what, but he lost his burst and without it he's just not an NBA calibre player. Nice guy but we're past the point of rewarding smiles.

Knight...he can either stay or go. I don't know enough about him since he's only ever seemed to play garbage minutes. He seems like a good locker room guy so maybe keep him? This is one of those choices where I'd accept whatever the FO did without much question.

Garza is similar to Knight, although I have even less faith in him as a genuine NBA player. He can score in bunches against other backups or 3rd stringers but he's a sieve defensively and realistically a dozen guys like him come out of college every year. Frankly, the obsession with giving him or any young guy with a pulse a "Gupta special" is weird to me.

Nowell can go. He's far, far too streaky and given his inability to play defence I just don't see the value in him. We can find some bench scoring elsewhere.

Rivers I'd keep if he's on the vet min. He's clearly nothing special but he plays his role, keeps himself ready and appears to be a good lockerroom presence so for the minimum...why not?

And since someone brought him up, I'd keep Prince unless we can use him in a trade. Cutting him for nothing doesn't seem like something we can afford, unless we have a ton of faith in Moore/Minott to soak up those minutes (and importantly, Prince's spacing).

Other guys:

Assuming we bring back Naz and NAW and don't trade KAT (boo) the priority would be a backup PG and some kind of additional offence off the bench. Specifically self creation for the offence. And if we do the former and want to operate under the lux it would get difficult.

Pat Bev is an obvious candidate. I remember hearing a rumour that Finch/FO were tired of him by the end of his stint so maybe he doesn't make sense here but he ticks a lot of boxes, was apparently good in the locker room with the players and would be a decent backup to Conley.

After him I don't see a lot of good vet min candidates, especially for us. If we're willing to dip into the lux Coby White could be an interesting choice.

[minimus]

Watanabe!!!

[Slim Tubby]

Watanabe!!!

Notacantbe!!!

[Klomp]

How about a player in the Wolves farm system, who has connections to Tim Connelly, Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mike Conley.

Watch on YouTube

[minimus]

How about a player in the Wolves farm system, who has connections to Tim Connelly, Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mike Conley.

Watch on YouTube

I never understood why he never lived up his potential, at least in defense

[minimus]

I am not surprised that many MIN fans dont want lil Mac back. But. He has been mz favorite player last three years, and I see how he can get back on his level. First, if we want to build around hard nosed defensive minded players, he fits as well as anybody. McLaughlin is certainly undersized, but doesnt lack effort. Second, if we want to be a smart team, we need to keep JMac. And finally I think we completely forgot that before injury, a year ago Jmac was one of the league best in AST/TO for last two season. He also used to dunk in the game. His best season was playing with Nowell, Beasley, TP and Reid unit. If we can build a solid bench he might be once again a solid backup PG for us. He will be even more effienct if the plays as 3rd string PG behind more talented playmakers

Watch on YouTube

[shrink]

If McLaughlin will sign for the vet min, I have no trouble bringing him back as our third-string PG. He needs to find his three point shot again, but the players like him and he would bring continuity.

I could see Tim Connolly putting Mudiay in that role as well. He drafted him #7 in 2015.

[NebWolvesFan]

The weird thing about "Not Trading KAT" is that if you don't you are almost locked in on running it back and running it back means no new players except the second round pick who is almost guaranteed to spend the year in Iowa.

While bringing back a relatively young playoff team isn't the worst thing. I'm not sure how much the fan base really likes this team. Ticket sales weren't that good last year and there will be no offseason buzz with no new players. Most hardcore fans will keep bitching about Gobert trade meant no first round picks.

That being said, I believe the reports that TC will wait on moving KAT until his market improves and his situation could be similar to DLo's where the market was cool in the summer but picked up at the deadline.

My predictions
No trades
Sign Reid to 4 yr 53 million deal
Sign NAW to 3 yr 17 million deal
Resign Garza to 3 year deal.
Waive Knight to pay for Garza's deal.
Go into season with 14 players - second round pick goes to Iowa

McDaniels/Prince/Moore Jr
Towns/Anderson/Minott
Gobert/Reid/Garza
Edwards/NAW
Conley/McLaughlin
SRP pick at Iowa