Connelly gets his guard he had in DEN! (not Bones...yet)

[casteral]

then again, if Bones was guaranteed to always have a hot hand then, err, nah

[winforlose]

then again, if Bones was guaranteed to always have a hot hand then, err, nah

This comment made list… for best comments I have read in a long time. + 2

[Note30]

I would be shocked if that DIDN’T happen to a few players, 50 games into the season.

Imagine 7 NBA players flip coins every game, 10 times. 7 players on 30 teams for 50 games so far is a population is 10,500 sample.

The odds of flipping all heads is 1 in 1024, so roughly, it should statistically have happened around ten times by now.

We don’t look back on those people and say they must have had a “hot hand” for coin flipping. This sequence will happen randomly in large samples.

And these are 10-for-10’s, when some of the examples you label “hot hands” missed a few shots, and were likely easier to attain then 10–for-10.

Bro what? When was the last time you picked up a ball? Sometimes your takes are so out of a book it feels like you've never even touched a basketball.

Hot hand is real, basketball isn't a machine you can plug stats into and have mathematical precision.

I will also say a hot hand is only true for as long as a player believes in it. It's confidence, nothing more nothing less. Confidence does help you make more shots in a row. It's why when players practice with closeouts in an empty gym they'll hit 80% of their shots. Actual game is a huge take on your mental.

That being said as soon as a player consciously or subconsciously drops that belief or notices his form or tries to adjust something or even gets in his head a little bit it's over.

Some players do a better job of it than others.

That being said you feed a hot hand until something changes. Defenses adjust, players start to feel uncomfortable, def happened to Karl. Instead of looking to regain the confidence like he did, he should have just tried to let the team adjust. My guess is that he was probably just trying to go for a record, realized he was, got excited and his headwind got lost.

Same question to you:

Did the coin flippers have “hot hands” by your definition of the word? Did their “confidence and subconscious elements” lead to them getting 10 heads?

Is “hot hand coin flippers” a real thing to you?

My guy. Draining a basket is not a 50/50 chance. Your analogy makes no sense.

Go shoot a basketball with your own hands and feel the mechanics of your shot. If you get really good at it, your muscle memory carries through on a number of shots. If you are able to retain the same form and motion you will likely make the same shot. but that confidence comes from repetition not luck.

When you **** up your confidence because you get in your head or form (aka any part of your shooting mechanic), you're unlikely to make the shot again. None of that happens flipping coins, you're not interrupting the 5 different part of your mechanics. It's not **** luck it's skill.

If you think flipping coins and making baskets are the same and there's no difference, then go watch poker. It'll be more fun for you.

[shrink]

I don’t want to give the impression that I don’t believe you feel your hot hands. I believed it too until I saw the data. But our brains our designed to look for patterns - it’s how we navigate the world. We see a small sample (like 4 successful coin flips, or four successful shots go in) and our brains try to create a reason.

Unfortunately, rationalization of “hot hands” did not stand up to statistical analysis, and a player with a hot hand rarely shot significantly better than his FG% on his next shot. I’m sure many players in the large populations honestly felt their own hot hands over their seasons too, but their feelings did not lead to making more baskets on their next shot.

I don’t know how to say this plainer than that.

But I agree with casteral, this is a thread to talk about our biggest trade this year, and we should get back on topic. If anyone wants to discuss this further, you’re welcome to pm me.

[KGdaBom]

Since I like to mock the hot/cold hand I enjoyed Shrink's study information regarding it. It seemed to match my general observations watching basketball. By the time players can recognize it it's usually over both ways. However this is about getting Monte. Is there much more to say about that or should the Monte Morris posts be done in the official Monte Morris thread now?

[thinktank]

I don’t want to give the impression that I don’t believe you feel your hot hands. I believed it too until I saw the data. But our brains our designed to look for patterns - it’s how we navigate the world. We see a small sample (like 4 successful coin flips, or four successful shots go in) and our brains try to create a reason.

Unfortunately, rationalization of “hot hands” did not stand up to statistical analysis, and a player with a hot hand rarely shot significantly better than his FG% on his next shot. I’m sure many players in the large populations honestly felt their own hot hands over their seasons too, but their feelings did not lead to making more baskets on their next shot.

I don’t know how to say this plainer than that.

But I agree with casteral, this is a thread to talk about our biggest trade this year, and we should get back on topic. If anyone wants to discuss this further, you’re welcome to pm me.

Shrink, that hot hand analysis only applied to consecutive shots, i.e. heat checks. I don’t think it has much relevance.

When a player has a hot night, his teammates get him the ball more.

Higher FG% in a game or stretch of games is a real thing.

Hot streaks are real.

[thinktank]

If “hot hands” were real, we would have evidence that someone with a hot hand would be more likely to make their next shot. The paper I linked to showed that was not the case. For example, a player that makes five in a row is not significantly more or less likely to make shot #6 than his standard FG%.

If it doesn’t have predictive value, then it is simply an adjective. Looking back after the fact and saying someone who shot well must have done it because they had a hot hand is simply choosing your own cause for a past effect. That is not logic, and it has as much value as me saying Conley shot well because I was wearing my lucky socks, or KG was doing Santeria.

Worse, calling someone who disagrees with your feelings a Flat Earther is backwards. Science requires experiments that can predict the future, and “hot hand” is the opposite of science. In fact, like Flat Earthers, I showed you the science, and you were the one to reject the science.

Shrink, you just saw it in practice. AJ Green is not a 87.5% 3 point shooter and Mike Conley is not a 85.71% 3 point shooter. You say making #3 doesn’t impact #4 or #5, but it does. From guys getting you more shots, to your confidence in shooting those shots, to the small mechanic changes you make to your shot subconsciously to repeat what works. It happens to often and is too well recognized to simply coincidence. You might not understand every aspect of gravity, but when you jump up, you come down. We don’t have to fully understand it to observe it and know it is real. Even career professionals who spend their life in and around the game talk about it (including Finch a couple weeks ago. Jim Pete last night even called someone out for not feeding the hot hand.) I don’t know what more you need to acknowledge the phenomenon than seeing it in practice repeatedly.

Exactly.

Given Conley was making threes against the Bucks, therefore he took more threes, therefore he made more threes.

That is a sample of one, but players do get hot and teammates see that and rightfully exploit it.

[thinktank]

If “hot hands” were real, we would have evidence that someone with a hot hand would be more likely to make their next shot.

This is a horrible definition of a hot hand (“be more likely to make their next shot”.

The analysis I think you’re talking about was only about consecutive shots, which is the wrong question to ask (True Detective season 4).

[TimberKat]

If “hot hands” were real, we would have evidence that someone with a hot hand would be more likely to make their next shot.

This is a horrible definition of a hot hand (“be more likely to make their next shot”.

The analysis I think you’re talking about was only about consecutive shots, which is the wrong question to ask (True Detective season 4).

Players in the zone is real. Doesn't mean he will make very shot and also depends on how defense play them. It looks like Finch doesn't believe in that and doesn't try different scheme to break the rhythm (not often enough anyway). Shooting basketball is a lot more about rhythm (smooth). Looking at Gobert's FT motion, you can see he is not in the zone often but can still get lucky and make 5 in a row.

[TimberKat]

Well, back to the topic of the thread, very glad we got Monte Morris... and not sure Bones Hyland would solve any issues as we are talking about back end of the rotation spots and he wouldn't crack that threshold... and last I checked clips hadn't cut him so he's not an option anyways

I am still in wait and see mode with Morris. He hasn't play well so far this year except for one game. Don't want to be like Milton so much expectations and so much disappointment.

[BlacJacMac]

Well, back to the topic of the thread, very glad we got Monte Morris... and not sure Bones Hyland would solve any issues as we are talking about back end of the rotation spots and he wouldn't crack that threshold... and last I checked clips hadn't cut him so he's not an option anyways

I am still in wait and see mode with Morris. He hasn't play well so far this year except for one game. Don't want to be like Milton so much expectations and so much disappointment.

He’s played 68 minutes and taken 11 threes - 2 of which were heaves.

He’s clearly rusty, as should be expected. But you aren’t going to find a more consistent shooter over the past 5 years. (And Detroit was +6.7 with him in court)

I’m not the least bit worried about him.

[Danimals]

When flipping coins, each flip represents an independent event. So the prior flips have no impact on subsequent flips, no matter the time period of time.

Shooting baskets across a specific period of time in a game are not independent events due to the carry over effects of psyche, fatigue, rhythm, and flow. This is how people get “hot” shooting. However, this is not predictable or stable from time period to time period.

It’s a better process, that will give better results to hunt the best shots, rather than to hunt the “hot hand.”

[Folklore]

KG has already told everyone that he believes what he believes so its pointless to try and change his mind. Now I'm starting to group Shrink with him. Even giving them an inch in agreement to their point does nothing. Being purposely obtuse to counter arguments, always hanging on semantics... all signs of entering a pointless argument.

[winforlose]

KG has already told everyone that he believes what he believes so its pointless to try and change his mind. Now I'm starting to group Shrink with him. Even giving them an inch in agreement to their point does nothing. Being purposely obtuse to counter arguments, always hanging on semantics... all signs of entering a pointless argument.

Maybe, but I like both of them and I don’t feel it hurts anything to have the discussion, even if it ends up going in circles.

[Folklore]

Personally I would have rolled with an upgrade at SF who could move to SG when needed. BigMac has been playing well but we now have two pgs who miss games and one who needs his reps but is supposed to be our scoring answer. We should have grabbed Spencer, But l also like what Kevin Porter Jr could bring with his scoring and passing. Morris spoke on being burned and he now sees basketball as strictly business so he wont be giving us any deals when its time for him to get paid. For the PG position I would have traded for a actual future solution for when Mike starts to come off the bench.

[Folklore]

KG has already told everyone that he believes what he believes so its pointless to try and change his mind. Now I'm starting to group Shrink with him. Even giving them an inch in agreement to their point does nothing. Being purposely obtuse to counter arguments, always hanging on semantics... all signs of entering a pointless argument.

Maybe, but I like both of them and I don’t feel it hurts anything to have the discussion, even if it ends up going in circles.

Yeah. I just get stressed trying to convince someone that the sun is round and not a oval for to long so maybe I'm just projecting too much.

[winforlose]

Personally I would have rolled with an upgrade at SF who could move to SG when needed. BigMac has been playing well but we now have two pgs who miss games and one who needs his reps but is supposed to be our scoring answer. We should have grabbed Spencer, But l also like what Kevin Porter Jr could bring with his scoring and passing. Morris spoke on being burned and he now sees basketball as strictly business so he wont be giving us any deals when its time for him to get paid. For the PG position I would have traded for a actual future solution for when Mike starts to come off the bench.

What is Morris worth after a season where he missed 43 games (44 with the trade inactivity,) and sucked in 6 since his return. He has at most 30 games plus the playoffs to return to form, prove he hasn’t lost a step, and secure his next deal. We own his bird rights, and we are not able to sign and trade him because of the hard cap that would follow. Morris likely knows his best bet is to resign and ask for a trade in February 2025 if he wants to leave. But, he has a history with TC and a really good set up here. If he waits one more year (maybe less depending on Mike’s health and age related decline,) he can be the starting PG on a contender. I could see us paying him 11 or 12 for 2 years with a player option on the second year.

[winforlose]

KG has already told everyone that he believes what he believes so its pointless to try and change his mind. Now I'm starting to group Shrink with him. Even giving them an inch in agreement to their point does nothing. Being purposely obtuse to counter arguments, always hanging on semantics... all signs of entering a pointless argument.

Maybe, but I like both of them and I don’t feel it hurts anything to have the discussion, even if it ends up going in circles.

Yeah. I just get stressed trying to convince someone that the sun is round and not a oval for to long so maybe I'm just projecting too much.

One night in February (many years ago,) I was walking back to my dorm and it was around 1:30 am, and this man stops me on the street to ask me “have you heard the good news.” Now being a rational and sane 19 year old I walked past him in the freezing Minnesota cold, went home and went to sleep. That is what I should be saying anyway . Instead I stopped and had an hour long talk with the man about religion and metaphysics and the nature of scripture vs the will of the supposed deity. I swear by the end of it this good natured and generally friendly Jehovah’s Witness wanted to at least punch me, if not worse. He spent the time trying to save my soul, and I spent the time trying to cure him of being a Jehovah’s Witness. He would say he wasted the hour because he made no progress. To this day I think about that man and hope I made some small degree of progress in helping to cure him. Maybe we both wasted our time, but maybe not.

[wolves_89]

One thing I'm curious about is whether the Wolves will push to extend Conley and/or Morris. It would be great to get at least one of them locked in for next season before they hit free agency.

[BlacJacMac]

Personally I would have rolled with an upgrade at SF who could move to SG when needed. BigMac has been playing well but we now have two pgs who miss games and one who needs his reps but is supposed to be our scoring answer. We should have grabbed Spencer, But l also like what Kevin Porter Jr could bring with his scoring and passing. Morris spoke on being burned and he now sees basketball as strictly business so he wont be giving us any deals when its time for him to get paid. For the PG position I would have traded for an actual future solution for when Mike starts to come off the bench.

Why would Dinwiddie come here when he’d have a much more defined role with LA or Dallas?