Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!)

[Klomp]

Moving up doesn't guarantee anything. But if you have someone you are targeting, it makes sense to go get him rather than sit around and hope he falls to you.

By trading back, you're letting the other 29 teams dictate who you get. It's essentially saying we're not convicted enough about a prospect to target them so we'll end up with whoever falls to us.

Knowing this front office and ownership, I think they sound much more like the first one.

[BlacJacMac]

Moving up doesn't guarantee anything. But if you have someone you are targeting, it makes sense to go get him rather than sit around and hope he falls to you.

By trading back, you're letting the other 29 teams dictate who you get. It's essentially saying we're not convicted enough about a prospect to target them so we'll end up with whoever falls to us.

Knowing this front office and ownership, I think they sound much more like the first one.

Exactly.

[winforlose]

Moving up doesn't guarantee anything. But if you have someone you are targeting, it makes sense to go get him rather than sit around and hope he falls to you.

By trading back, you're letting the other 29 teams dictate who you get. It's essentially saying we're not convicted enough about a prospect to target them so we'll end up with whoever falls to us.

Knowing this front office and ownership, I think they sound much more like the first one.

I have no idea who TC is targeting. I have no idea if that player will be around in the early or late 20s. I do know what we are paper thin in picks. We are gonna be well over the 2nd apron. We have Miller and Minott already in the pipeline, and we need to win and be a high seed every year to make enough money to keep this team together. If TC thinks a future star is available, then maybe he jumps up and scoops him. But if not, we already saw a TC trade down in the 22 draft, and it could happen again.

[Klomp]

When they drafted in the lottery they did. My question is whether a pick 22 is gonna jump over a Minott or Miller to get into our 9 ninth spot. Because we have all 5 starters, we have NAW and Naz, and I will bet you we bring back Morris and Kyle. So is an early 20s pick gonna get a rotation spot with Chris Finch as his coach? The same Chris Finch who doesn’t play his end of bench until sometime between 9 and 5 minutes left in a blowout? At least with a vet minimum player (or ring chaser,) in that roster spot they could get some productive playing time in case of an injury.

WHY ARE DRAFT PICKS JUDGED ONLY ON THEIR ROOKIE SEASON?!?!?!

I'm sorry for the all caps, but that's one of the most infuriating narratives I've constantly read on this forum over the last 18+ years. Judging a pick or prospect's success on whether they make the rotation on a Finals contender as a rookie is absolutely foolish.

[winforlose]

When they drafted in the lottery they did. My question is whether a pick 22 is gonna jump over a Minott or Miller to get into our 9 ninth spot. Because we have all 5 starters, we have NAW and Naz, and I will bet you we bring back Morris and Kyle. So is an early 20s pick gonna get a rotation spot with Chris Finch as his coach? The same Chris Finch who doesn’t play his end of bench until sometime between 9 and 5 minutes left in a blowout? At least with a vet minimum player (or ring chaser,) in that roster spot they could get some productive playing time in case of an injury.

WHY ARE DRAFT PICKS JUDGED ONLY ON THEIR ROOKIE SEASON?!?!?!

I'm sorry for the all caps, but that's one of the most infuriating narratives I've constantly read on this forum over the last 18+ years. Judging a pick or prospect's success on whether they make the rotation on a Finals contender as a rookie is absolutely foolish.

They are not. But we have 24-25, 25-26 and maybe 26-27 (depending on contracts when enter the tax,) to compete, before we need to throttle down our spending. In light of this, drafting a 3 or 4 year project is tough. Moreover, with my plan the two ways don’t count against us, and we can then bring the players over as main roster when we need them. They will still develop in the G (just like Miller and Minott are now,) and we can use the roster spot on a win now player. Like it or not, we MUST win now. Everything depends on winning. High seed means more national attention which means more merch sales. It also means favorable matchups and home court advantage so hopefully more playoff games and more revenue.

Why is 28 more valuable than 31? If you can trade for pick 31 and future seconds why not do it? Is 31 or even 32 that huge a drop off?

[BlacJacMac]

Because players aren’t numbers. They’re players.

There can be a HUGE drop from 28 to 29 if you love the player at 28.

[winforlose]

Because players aren’t numbers. They’re players.

There can be a HUGE drop from 28 to 29 if you love the player at 28.

An excellent point. But, holding steady means we have 3 2nd round picks in the next 7 years. If there is a player we love in 2026 we won’t be able to move up for them (without giving up players.) Likewise, if we move up then we have 2 seconds for the next 7 years. Not to mention 2nds can help grease the wheels for trades like Monte Morris. If we have an empty pick chest we might not able to get those deals done. I am sure TC has a draft board, and I am sure he has contingencies for everything. All I am saying is, don’t be surprised if he trades down again.

[BlacJacMac]

And if you can get a Jamie Jaquez, maybe you don’t have to pay 2nd Apron penalties to keep SloMo?

Or a Marcus Sasser might allow for just a rental of Morris and a guy who can take over as our starter in a year or two.

It’s not so black and white. Our roster is good, but it’s not some god tier level thing that no one could break into.

[BlacJacMac]

Because players aren’t numbers. They’re players.

There can be a HUGE drop from 28 to 29 if you love the player at 28.

An excellent point. But, holding steady means we have 3 2nd round picks in the next 7 years. If there is a player we love in 2026 we won’t be able to move up for them (without giving up players.) Likewise, if we move up then we have 2 seconds for the next 7 years. Not to mention 2nds can help grease the wheels for trades like Monte Morris. If we have an empty pick chest we might not able to get those deals done. I am sure TC has a draft board, and I am sure he has contingencies for everything. All I am saying is, don’t be surprised if he trades down again.

A bird in the hand…

[winforlose]

Because players aren’t numbers. They’re players.

There can be a HUGE drop from 28 to 29 if you love the player at 28.

An excellent point. But, holding steady means we have 3 2nd round picks in the next 7 years. If there is a player we love in 2026 we won’t be able to move up for them (without giving up players.) Likewise, if we move up then we have 2 seconds for the next 7 years. Not to mention 2nds can help grease the wheels for trades like Monte Morris. If we have an empty pick chest we might not able to get those deals done. I am sure TC has a draft board, and I am sure he has contingencies for everything. All I am saying is, don’t be surprised if he trades down again.

A bird in the hand…

You don’t know there is a bird, much less have it in hand. Let’s say TC has a guy he absolutely loves. He is sure he can trade up to 22 and steal him. Well someone else could move up to 20 or 21 and grab him, if they don’t take him naturally. Moreover, if we kept Kessler and never traded for Gobert we would have had a bird in hand, instead we traded away a first and a ton of other firsts because Gobert is a better bird for our needs. If you had a magic ball that said the guy we draft is gonna be great that is one thing, but this is a shot in the dark, not a bird in hand.

[younggunsmn]

If you are going to move up, you better be damn sure about the player you are targeting.
Because along with the lost asset (2nd round pick), the difference in salary slot between early 20's and late 20's might cost you 5 million in luxury tax, which is also money you could have spent elsewhere.
On top of that, you lose the cheap zero year min contract for the early 2nd round pick, difference in salary between that and a vet min is another 3-4 million probably.

We tried this twice recently and failed miserably.

Gave away a 2nd to get from 25 to 23 and swap Quickley for Bolmaro (out of the league already).
Gave away TWO 2nds to move from 29 to 26 for Wendell Moore (out of the league sometime soon).

Late 1st+early 2nd combo is right in the sweet spot for a team with our tax situation.

It depends on your draft board and how much confidence you have that a player is going to be enough of a difference maker that he is worth going up and getting.
When you are talking early 20's, and 20 teams already passed on him, it starts getting harder to do that than say late lottery.

I was a big fan of going up to get Jalen Duren a couple of years ago, we ended up trading down for Kessler and Moore but Moore was a bad pick and that would have looked a lot better if it were say Kessler and Nembhard.

This draft is supposed to have pretty good depth late 1st/early 2nd (right where we are drafting), so I think holding the picks is probably the better move this year. If you can trade the late 1st for an early 2nd plus future 2nds without dropping a tier of player, even better.

We aren't going to be able to "bully" an early 2nd round pick into a 2-way contract.
Clark took one as a late 2nd because he was going to be out injured for the whole year.
If you want to get them to sign the "Gupta special" you have to give them some guaranteed money in years one and two and up the salary in year one like you can do now with the 2nd round pick exception.
If you aren't willing to do that, you don't have much confidence in the guy you are drafting in that range.

Just my opinion, Minott, Clark and Moore don't belong in the league and I'm less than impressed with Miller so far but I think he will get a longer runway from Connelly.
You can say those guys aren't playing because we are trying to contend, I say most of the scrubs and projects we see from other teams we have been playing have been a good deal more impressive.

I would not at all be surprised to see Minott and Moore gone by July 1st.

We've had a good deal of luck with health this year, but if those guys are forced to play they are going to be nowhere near meeting Finch's expectations and I think we will want a little better veteran depth next year.

[BlacJacMac]

By that measure I guess we could kick the can down the road every year and never have to draft anyone. Just in case. Keep our powder dry.

[TimberKat]

Given where we are with cap and in win now mode. I am thinking maybe trade our 1st and 2nd for next year's picks? Which then can be used as chip for mid season trade? I also wonder what's OKC doing with all their 1st. They can't possibly use all those picks and have no way to develop them.

[younggunsmn]

BTW if you are curious about our tax situation after the Conley extension I updated the capology thread with scenarios for a 5 or 10 percent cap bump with and without Ant meeting supermax criteria.

Running it back status quo, with just guaranteed contracts and a roster filled out with vet mins and draft picks could cost us up to 280 million dollars when taxes are included. That's kind of insane when you consider it's a 115 million bump from this year.

[winforlose]

BTW if you are curious about our tax situation after the Conley extension I updated the capology thread with scenarios for a 5 or 10 percent cap bump with and without Ant meeting supermax criteria.

Running it back status quo, with just guaranteed contracts and a roster filled out with vet mins and draft picks could cost us up to 280 million dollars when taxes are included. That's kind of insane when you consider it's a 115 million bump from this year.

That math while accurate isn’t the full story. How much does winning generate in extra ticket sales, merch sales, better advertising, national tv games (we just got flexed into one,) ect… Also the teams overall value keeps increasing as a result of our finally getting our **** together. A new stadium with public funds will also be profitable for the team long term. If you spend 115 to make 120 then you spend the 115. If you spend the 115 to make 150 you do it with a smile.

[TimberKat]

Currently there are 8 tax paying teams this year: GSW, LAC, PHX, BOS, MIL, DEN, MIA, and LAL. Adding MIN and MEM to the list next year. You almost expected to be a tax team if you want to win.

I would think when the Gobert trade happened, management is already prepared to be either a tax paying team or to trade Towns. Tax was not new, only the 2nd apron rules were. If DEN is operating at 22Mil tax bill this year, I think Wolves will be willing to do that for a top 6 team next year. So while the raw numbers are big, the percent over tax line is not huge. We just had a bad inflation year I totally expect the cap to go up by 10% with TV deals and gambling interests.

[life_saver]

At this point, Ant has a decent chance to make All-NBA..I hope he doesn't for sake of cap but he has lot better shot at it now when compared to 2 months ago.

[winforlose]

At this point, Ant has a decent chance to make All-NBA..I hope he doesn't for sake of cap but he has lot better shot at it now when compared to 2 months ago.

I don’t know about that. Other than Embiid who else is disqualified at this point?

[life_saver]

At this point, Ant has a decent chance to make All-NBA..I hope he doesn't for sake of cap but he has lot better shot at it now when compared to 2 months ago.

I don’t know about that. Other than Embiid who else is disqualified at this point?

Haliburton was almost guaranteed to make All-NBA back in December but since then he has missed 10 games..he has now missed 13 games for the season..there is a chance he might miss the 65 game threshold with even another minor injury.

At this point, I'd say these guys have better chance of making All-NBA than Ant

Jokic (almost locked)
Giannis (almost locked)
SGA (almost locked)
Luka (almost locked)
Tatum (almost locked)
Mitchell
KD
Kawhi
Curry
Sabonis
AD
Hali
Brunson
Gobert
Lebron

Then you have guys like Paul George, Booker, Jaylen Brown, Zion etc who are also in conversation
Now, some of these are not necessarily a guarantee & with the 65 game rule, another 1-2 spots might open up. Wolves will have atleast 1 guy in All-NBA for sure..I think Gobert might get the nod ahead of Ant due to being DPOY. For someone like Lebron, even if Ant has a better season, Lebron might end up making it due to popularity.

[winforlose]

At this point, Ant has a decent chance to make All-NBA..I hope he doesn't for sake of cap but he has lot better shot at it now when compared to 2 months ago.

I don’t know about that. Other than Embiid who else is disqualified at this point?

Haliburton was almost guaranteed to make All-NBA back in December but since then he has missed 10 games..he has now missed 13 games for the season..there is a chance he might miss the 65 game threshold with even another minor injury.

At this point, I'd say these guys have better chance of making All-NBA than Ant

Jokic (almost locked)
Giannis (almost locked)
SGA (almost locked)
Luka (almost locked)
Tatum (almost locked)
Mitchell
KD
Kawhi
Curry
Sabonis
AD
Hali
Brunson
Gobert
Lebron

Then you have guys like Paul George, Booker, Jaylen Brown, Zion etc who are also in conversation
Now, some of these are not necessarily a guarantee & with the 65 game rule, another 1-2 spots might open up. Wolves will have atleast 1 guy in All-NBA for sure..I think Gobert might get the nod ahead of Ant due to being DPOY. For someone like Lebron, even if Ant has a better season, Lebron might end up making it due to popularity.

Current DQs

Embiid
Butler
Irving
Beal
Jamal Murray missed 15 (likely DQ,)

I could dig deeper, but I don’t want to spend the time. Anyway, there are enough DQs to make it possible. That said, Fox, Young, Maxey, Markkanen and more are missing from your list among many more covered in ect… It is far from certain that Ant gets there.