Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!)

[Domejandro]

I hate having to make the thread now, but the forum implodes when threads get too long.

Hoping for a fun Trade Deadline around the NBA!

Previous Thread:
viewtopic.php?f=22&t=2328379

[TimberKat]

Looks like Hayward will get buyout (according to some NBA insider)

He wants to keep Birds rights, means no buyout

What is the benefit of Bird rights for him or the team that traded for him? No one is going to paid him more than what he got in the last contract. At best, maybe 20m per year for two years. I don't think any contender can absorb his contract. He is a role player or 3rd option at best.

[jpatrick]

Looks like Hayward will get buyout (according to some NBA insider)

He wants to keep Birds rights, means no buyout

What is the benefit of Bird rights for him or the team that traded for him? No one is going to paid him more than what he got in the last contract. At best, maybe 20m per year for two years. I don't think any contender can absorb his contract. He is a role player or 3rd option at best.

I can’t believe this is an important consideration. I’d be shocked if he got more than the MLE next year given his decline, injuries, and age.

My prediction: No trades for us today. And if Fournier is bought out, he signs here.

[Domejandro]

Looks like Hayward will get buyout (according to some NBA insider)

He wants to keep Birds rights, means no buyout

What is the benefit of Bird rights for him or the team that traded for him? No one is going to paid him more than what he got in the last contract. At best, maybe 20m per year for two years. I don't think any contender can absorb his contract. He is a role player or 3rd option at best.

Ignoring the hypothetical of a team like Philadelphia consolidating expiring into him, the benefit for him with staying on Charlotte and maintaining Bird Rights is the ability for Charlotte to conduct sign-and-trade scenarios.

[winforlose]

Looks like Hayward will get buyout (according to some NBA insider)

He wants to keep Birds rights, means no buyout

What is the benefit of Bird rights for him or the team that traded for him? No one is going to paid him more than what he got in the last contract. At best, maybe 20m per year for two years. I don't think any contender can absorb his contract. He is a role player or 3rd option at best.

There are a number of obstacles for him.

1. If the Hornets were interested in resigning him, they wouldn’t be talking about buying him out.

2. Any team that sign and trades for him is hard capped. Most contenders won’t want to be hard capped. Most non contenders won’t want to pay a lot and be hard capped for someone with his injury history.

3. If he leaves in free agency he loses his bird rights anyway.

The only true solution for him is to convince Charlotte that he can be resigned to a deal he wants and moved at the 25 deadline. But Charlotte has no reason to take on a contract that size and risk not finding a trade partner (what if he is hurt for example?) End of the day, I don’t see him making a ton of money next year.

[winforlose]

He wants to keep Birds rights, means no buyout

What is the benefit of Bird rights for him or the team that traded for him? No one is going to paid him more than what he got in the last contract. At best, maybe 20m per year for two years. I don't think any contender can absorb his contract. He is a role player or 3rd option at best.

Ignoring the hypothetical of a team like Philadelphia consolidating expiring into him, the benefit for him with staying on Charlotte and maintaining Bird Rights is the ability for Charlotte to conduct sign-and-trade scenarios.

Why would any team hard cap themselves to overpay for a guy who is unlikely to stay healthy? There is a reason he is a buyout candidate and not a trade candidate. His agent needs to have a talk with him.

[TimberKat]

"Miles Bridges Won't Approve Trades, Will Remain With Hornets" - good news for Wolves because he is not going to Suns? He wants to keep Bird Rights and is looking for a sign and trade in the summer. Suns may still make a move with Nassir Little's 6M and Gordon's 3M contract.

[Domejandro]

Everything typed in here us wrong. Jarred Vanderbilt signed his extension less than six months ago, so he is not trade eligible.

Spoiler:

Goofy scenario that won’t happen with Minnesota’s disaster of a future cap sheet, but if the Los Angeles Lakers make an unlikely trade, Minnesota could probably do some kind of Kyle Anderson for Jarred Vanderbilt swap and rake in a few seconds (while opening up $4.4MM to play with, underneath the dreaded $1.6MM “unlikely incentive” barrier). Minnesota still has $3.4MM of their Non-Taxpayer MLE, so they could give that to their top target and still sign another person, getting to fourteen players on their roster.

It would open up other options as well, in a three-way, but figured I’d outline the most interesting pathway. It would be interesting, because Minnesota with Vanderbilt would maintain the same (if not better) defensive burst that Kyle Anderson offers off of the bench, with Minnesota not needing the playmaking as badly, thanks to the Monte Morris trade.

Mike Conley / Monte Morris / Jordan McLaughlin
Anthony Edwards / Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Jaden McDaniels / Josh Minott
Karl-Anthony Towns / Jarred Vanderbilt/ Leonard Miller
Rudy Gobert / Naz Reid

2WP: Luka Garza, Daishen Nix, Jaylen Clarke

+ $3.4MM MLE and a veteran minimum

If Gordon Hayward was on the buyout market, this would be a dream scenario, from a roster construction standpoint.

Issue is that this is Jarred Vanderbilt’s contact:
2023: $4,698,000
2024: $10,714,286
2025: $11,571,429
2026: $12,428,571
2027: $13,285,714 (PO)

That’s pretty frightening for a player as persistently injured as Jarred Vanderbilt, but that’s why the swap in a three-team scenario would bring minor assets back to Minnesota.

[TimberKat]

It's sad that one of the benefit of Vanderbilt is he is a better 3pt shooter than KA.

[TimberKat]

Connelly better have a KA trade ready. I would rather have throw KA + 2024 2nd in to get Hield instead of the current Morris trade. Philly made a great trade if Embiid comes back this year.

[Neeva]

Yea I’d rather get someone like Agbaji from Utah, he could be NAW like on a new team.

[Domejandro]

Connelly better have a KA trade ready. I would rather have throw KA + 2024 2nd in to get Hield instead of the current Morris trade. Philly made a great trade if Embiid comes back this year.

That would have unavoidably thrown Minnesota into the Luxury-Tax. I am pretty confident that a minor move will be made to duck the tax further.

[TimberKat]

Connelly better have a KA trade ready. I would rather have throw KA + 2024 2nd in to get Hield instead of the current Morris trade. Philly made a great trade if Embiid comes back this year.

That would have unavoidably thrown Minnesota into the Luxury-Tax. I am pretty confident that a minor move will be made to duck the tax further.

Yes, Hield at 19m maybe just a little to high for KA+Milton+TBJr+ two 2nd. We have to back fill two players. However, would had been a great bench with him and Naz. We also don't have to use Conley as spot up shooter and play him with JMcL.

[shrink]

Good posts so far on buy out possibilities for Hayward, but let me back up a bit for new people that might not understand buyouts as deeply, particularly since MIN has never been much of a buy out destination before this season.

NBA contracts are fully guaranteed, unless both the player and the owner agree to take less. When a team fails to be able to trade a player by the deadline, we sometimes see lottery teams who don’t need production, buy out players. Typically, an expiring player agrees to take less money, to gain his freedom to sign with a contender. New rules this year restrict seven contenders with payroll over the second apron from signing players whose original salary was over the MLE, leaving MIN, PHI, and OKC as the main destinations.

Gordon Hayward doesn’t check all the boxes of a typical buy out candidate. Every player wants to be on a winning team, but other factors may cause Hayward to want to stay in CHA. If he is traded today, his contract right now is likely too high to be able to extend, so he will be a free agent whether he stays in CHA or changes teams. His decision will likely be based on his next contract, aiming for a deal with a few years on it (he’s 33), and in a destination where he can win.

If he’s bought out and is a standard free agent, he is pretty limited. Only one contender has cap space, and Hayward is not at the top of their list. Contenders can likely only offer him the tax-payer MLE, or nine of them (including MIN), likely won’t even have any MLE at all. CHA on the other hand, would have his Bird rights if he stays put, and can offer a deal greater than the MLE. After that, they can work a trade on that contract later for a bit of value. Hayward would have more value to a contender with his Bird rights as well, since (as we see already), a lack of Bird rights makes it hard for expensive contenders to keep a player. If Monte was bought out and we signed him, we wouldn’t have a mechanism to bring him back next year.

[Domejandro]

Read on Twitter

Was expecting something like this for Gordon Hayward, unfortunately. Great pickup for the Oklahoma City Thunder, he is a perfect fit on that roster. If they get a decent backup rebounding big, they will be incredibly frightening.

[shrink]

I wrote that whole thing, and now this happens!

Read on Twitter

[TimberKat]

I wrote that whole thing, and now this happens

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

This is wrong on so many levels
OKC doesn't need another shooter. They need size. Holmgren's best position is pwd fd. What are they going to do with Hayward? I guess use as salary slot for a big name in the summer? Is that even possible?

[shrink]

This and Olynyk to TOR are breaking up today’s dreams of several contenders.

[Neeva]

I wrote that whole thing, and now this happens

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

This is wrong on so many levels
OKC doesn't need another shooter. They need size. Holmgren's best position is pwd fd. What are they going to do with Hayward? I guess use as salary slot for a big name in the summer? Is that even possible?

Meh Hayward will be too injured to make much of a difference for them anyway.

[Domejandro]

I would not underrate that Gordon Hayward pickup, I think that is an insanely good deal for Oklahoma City. They cleared Dāvis Bertāns salary for Tre Mann (zero seconds) and received a starting caliber, efficient wing-player.

The thing to fear is a follow-up for a backup rebounding big. If they manage to scrape someone like Andre Drummond, they immediately become a serious problem, for Minnesota.