Playoff seeding thread

[shrink]

No problem. It can be hard to keep it all straight. The good news is we are having this discussion about the #1 seed and tie breakers, and it’s April 8th . This is why people like KG and I were so thrilled to get Rudy .

I was right there with you. It's why I kept repeating that last year was literally as close to the worst case scenario as we could get. You get Rudy, you're probably going to be a playoff team.

I have a very different take than most people about last year. We lost Karl for more than 50 games, (not to mention he came into the season after being horribly sick and losing a ton of weight and muscle.) On top of that Dlo was playing like trash for a chunk of the season, Nowell fell off a cliff, ect… Any other year we would be a 17-20 win team. Instead, we made the freaking playoffs. Technically the play in. But that first play in game we had no Jaden (broken hand,) no Naz (broken wrist,) no Rudy (suspended for hitting Kyle after Kyle called him a bitch.) Also in that dynamic is Karl was not close to 100% with his calf, Rudy had a very bad back, Ant had bad knees, NAW wasn’t quite NAW yet, ect… But with all of that we get to 41-41, we win the second play in game, and you would think we get swept. Nope, we win a game against Denver. In fact, Denver says we were the toughest team the played, (again without Jaden or Naz, with Rudy’s bad back, Karl’s calf, Ant’s knees, ect…)

Last year should be looked at as a success, despite some overwhelming obstacles. I know I am preaching to the choir, but this needed to be said for any visitors who look at this thread.

And in the play in with the Lakers, without Rudy, Jaden or Naz, (and Ant was 3-for-17), a recovering Towns almost beat the Lakers. He got exhausted in the fourth, but the game still went to overtime. Barkley’s expression was priceless.

If MIN scores a single point more (Ant goes 4-for-17), the Wolves are the 7th seed, and they get injured MEM and weak GSW, and had a good chance to play DEN in the WCF. Meanwhile, LAL would have faced DEN in Round 1, and likely been eliminated in 4 games. Crazy that you play a whole season, and a single point determines extremely different off-season narratives of both teams.

[shrink]

4/9

55-24 MIN: @ DEN, ATL, PHX
55-24 DEN: MIN, @MEM, @SAS

54-25 OKC (-1 back): SAS, MIL, DAL

All three top teams came back tonight against challenges to win, setting up the giant battle tomorrow night in DEN!

Thunder face the Spurs, who have been battling to the end (5-5 in last 10).

Next up: Hawks are a game behind the Bulls for the 9th seed. Bulls have the tie-breaker. Both teams are locked into 9/10.

[TimberKat]

After the DEN loss, ESPN is showing Wolves are the 3rd seed. Don't we have the tie breaker over OKC?

[shrink]

After the DEN loss, ESPN is showing Wolves are the 3rd seed. Don't we have the tie breaker over OKC?

Two team tie breaker rules
Head-to-head record. (Split 2-2)
Division winner (if applicable). (No)
Division record (if teams in same division). 12-4, 12-4
Conference record. 37-14 MIN vs 35-16 OKC

Yes, I think it should be MIN as #2 seed. Maybe I’m missing something?

[shrink]

There is still a chance that DEN drops a game, and we have many of the tie-breakers. But there is sometimes a question whether it’s better to have the #2 or #3 seed.

Certainly it’s better to have the #2 for the Semi-Finals, where the #2 has home court advantage (likely over #3). But the opening match ups aren’t always an easier team. The #2 team has to face the runner up of the Play In tournament, which could be a hot, rising team that won both PIT elimination games. The #3 gets many days to prep, knowing their opponent.

#6-#10 is still a question mark.

6. 47-32 NOP
7. 47-33 PHX

8. 45-34 SAC
9. 45-35 LAL
10 44-35 GSW

Still, I prefer the #2 seed. I would hope MIN can avoid a first round exit, regardless of opponent, and home court in round 2 is the most valuable prize here.

[Worm Guts]

After the DEN loss, ESPN is showing Wolves are the 3rd seed. Don't we have the tie breaker over OKC?

Two team tie breaker rules
Head-to-head record. (Split 2-2)
Division winner (if applicable). (No)
Division record (if teams in same division). 12-4, 12-4
Conference record. 37-14 MIN vs 35-16 OKC

Yes, I think it should be MIN as #2 seed. Maybe I’m missing something?

NBA.com has us in 2nd, that's probably a better source.

[Neeva]

Honestly second is not so bad wolves still avoid Denver till the finals, and avoid a hot dallas team as well till finals.

[life_saver]

At this point, I'd rather be 2nd seed or 3rd seed than 1st seed. I know we have had trouble with Pels, Suns but I'd rather face them than Warriors, Lakers in a playoff series. Both Warriors, Lakers have been playing very well post-ASB and have proven playoff performers (Warriros are something like 17-4 in last 6 weeks). Pels are also missing Ingram.

[TimberKat]

There is still a chance that DEN drops a game, and we have many of the tie-breakers. But there is sometimes a question whether it’s better to have the #2 or #3 seed.

Certainly it’s better to have the #2 for the Semi-Finals, where the #2 has home court advantage (likely over #3). But the opening match ups aren’t always an easier team. The #2 team has to face the runner up of the Play In tournament, which could be a hot, rising team that won both PIT elimination games. The #3 gets many days to prep, knowing their opponent.

#6-#10 is still a question mark.

6. 47-32 NOP
7. 47-33 PHX

8. 45-34 SAC
9. 45-35 LAL
10 44-35 GSW

Still, I prefer the #2 seed. I would hope MIN can avoid a first round exit, regardless of opponent, and home court in round 2 is the most valuable prize here.

The nice thing is we are in complete control of that since our last game is with PHX I am assuming we just want to avoid them in the first round. On general, also always take 2nd over third because the 7th team had to play an extra game

[winforlose]

There is still a chance that DEN drops a game, and we have many of the tie-breakers. But there is sometimes a question whether it’s better to have the #2 or #3 seed.

Certainly it’s better to have the #2 for the Semi-Finals, where the #2 has home court advantage (likely over #3). But the opening match ups aren’t always an easier team. The #2 team has to face the runner up of the Play In tournament, which could be a hot, rising team that won both PIT elimination games. The #3 gets many days to prep, knowing their opponent.

#6-#10 is still a question mark.

6. 47-32 NOP
7. 47-33 PHX

8. 45-34 SAC
9. 45-35 LAL
10 44-35 GSW

Still, I prefer the #2 seed. I would hope MIN can avoid a first round exit, regardless of opponent, and home court in round 2 is the most valuable prize here.

The nice thing is we are in complete control of that since our last game is with PHX I am assuming we just want to avoid them in the first round. On general, also always take 2nd over third because the 7th team had to play an extra game

The true value of the 1 seed is a matchup with LAC or the Mavs instead of OKC in round 2. Once you get to 2 vs 3, home court is the advantage, and I would very much prefer a tougher 1st round that we win, to a slightly easier 1st round and a tougher 2nd round. Also it is worth noting that 3rd seed might end up with the Pelicans, and people don’t seem excited by that matchup.

[winforlose]

Warriors win puts them ahead of the Lakers. Pels win puts them a game above the Suns, but the Suns have the tie breaker. Pels have control of their destiny. The question for the board is do you prefer the Pels or the Suns in the first round?

[shrink]

4/11. Pelicans beat the Kings (edit, thanks!) tonight, so the standings with two games left are

6. 48-32 NOP
7. 47-33 PHX

8. 45-35 SAC
9. 45-35 LAL
10 44-35 GSW

The Suns hold the tie-breaker over the Pels, in the battle to avoid the Play In Tournament. Tomorrow night a lot could be decided, with NOP @ GSW and PHX @ SAC. We want a NOP win and a Suns loss, so PHX would be playing for almost nothing when they face us on Sunday.

At the top of the standings, we host ATL, DEN @ feisty SA, and OKC hosts MIL. ATL has nothing to play for. Bulls are two games ahead for the ninth seed, plus they own the tie-breaker over the Hawks. MIL needs to win to hold off charging NYK, 1 game back.

[winforlose]

4/11. Pelicans beat the Suns tonight, so the standings with two games left are

6. 48-32 NOP
7. 47-33 PHX

8. 45-35 SAC
9. 45-35 LAL
10 44-35 GSW

The Suns hold the tie-breaker over the Pels, in the battle to avoid the Play In Tournament. Tomorrow night a lot could be decided, with NOP @ GSW and PHX @ SAC. We want a NOP win and a Suns loss, so PHX would be playing for almost nothing when they face us on Sunday.

At the top of the standings, we host ATL, DEN @ feisty SA, and OKC hosts MIL. ATL has nothing to play for. Bulls are two games ahead for the ninth seed, plus they own the tie-breaker over the Hawks. MIL needs to win to hold off charging NYK, 1 game back.

1. You should edit your first line to the Pels beat the Kings .

2. Your scenario has the Pels end 6th and the Suns 7th. Suns would then play either LAL or GSW for the 7 seed (playing against us.) Does this mean you prefer the Suns to the Pels as our opponent? Also wouldn’t you want the Kings to win to keep them viable as a 7 or 8 seed for the first play in game? Or do you believe they cannot be the Suns or Pels in the 7 vs 8 game?

[shrink]

2. Your scenario has the Pels end 6th and the Suns 7th. Suns would then play either LAL or GSW for the 7 seed (playing against us.) Does this mean you prefer the Suns to the Pels as our opponent? Also wouldn’t you want the Kings to win to keep them viable as a 7 or 8 seed for the first play in game? Or do you believe they cannot be the Suns or Pels in the 7 vs 8 game?

I think we would beat any of those teams. My main concern is that we win our next two games, so OKC doesn’t catch us, and it forces DEN to win both of theirs.

[thinktank]

…

[shrink]

Tiebreaker Basis – Three or More Teams Tied
(-) Tie breaker not needed (better overall winning percentage)
(1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division (this criterion is
applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
(2) Better winning percentage in all games among the tied teams
(3) Division won-lost percentage (only if all teams are in same division)
(4) Conference won-lost percentage
(5) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for the playoffs in own
conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff
position)
(6) Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all
opponents (“point differential”)

1. Doesn’t apply
2. OKC 3-1 vs DEN, OKC 2-2 vs MIN, DEN 2-2 vs MIN

1. Thunder 5-3
2. Wolves 4-4
3. Nuggets 3-5

Dang it!

[shrink]

Assuming MIN beats PHX, if either DEN or OKC loses, we get the #1 seed, because it becomes a two-way tie, and we have tie-breakers over both, I believe.

[TimberKat]

Assuming MIN beats PHX, if either DEN or OKC loses, we get the #1 seed, because it becomes a two-way tie, and we have tie-breakers over both, I believe.

I like your thinking and let's hope they rest all their starters to get ready for NOP/SUN. If DAL rest Luka and Kyrie, it's only fair that DEN rest all their starters

[shrink]

I think the combos for the last day:

MIN W, DEN W, OKC W .. #1 OKC, #2 MIN, #3 DEN
MIN W, DEN W, OKC L .. #1 MIN, #2 DEN, #3 OKC
MIN W, DEN L, OKC W .. #1 MIN, #2 OKC, #3 DEN
MIN W, DEN L, OKC L .. #1 MIN, #2 OKC, #3 DEN

MIN L, DEN W, OKC W .. #1 OKC, #2 DEN, #3 MIN
MIN L, DEN W, OKC L .. #1 DEN, #2 MIN, #3 OKC
MIN L, DEN L, OKC W .. #1 OKC, #2 MIN, #3 DEN
MIN L, DEN L, OKC L .. #1 OKC, #2 MIN, #3 DEN

Note that DEN has very few ways to get out of #3.

[winforlose]

I think the combos for the last day:

MIN W, DEN W, OKC W .. #1 OKC, #2 MIN, #3 DEN
MIN W, DEN W, OKC L .. #1 MIN, #2 DEN, #3 OKC
MIN W, DEN L, OKC W .. #1 MIN, #2 OKC, #3 DEN
MIN W, DEN L, OKC L .. #1 MIN, #2 OKC, #3 DEN

MIN L, DEN W, OKC W .. #1 OKC, #2 DEN, #3 MIN
MIN L, DEN W, OKC L .. #1 DEN, #2 MIN, #3 OKC
MIN L, DEN L, OKC W .. #1 OKC, #2 MIN, #3 DEN
MIN L, DEN L, OKC L .. #1 OKC, #2 MIN, #3 DEN

Note that DEN has very few ways to get out of #3.

If Denver wants to avoid the Wolves they can throw the game to Memphis. Bench your top 6 or 7 for rest (injury prevention,) and let your deep bench play big minutes against Memphis. That way the Wolves get the 1 and Denver has OKC, who has no playoff experience, and might drop the 1st round to the Pels. Then Denver hopes we lose round 1 or 2 and they end up with home court anyway. The alternative is having to go through us in the 2nd round with or without home court. Either way the winner of that series if healthy is the NBA champion.