I can't believe you guys are already throwing miller under the bus and willing to move him for expirings. He will have more value when he recovers from his ankle injury fully and gets his shooting stroke back, and he and cardinal will have more value in 2009 as expirings. Think it of as holding a stock that you know is going to go up until a certain time. The closer you get to the 2009-2010 trade deadline you get the more they go up. In my opinion we should be able to get a good young player for miller and a 1st rounder for cardinal if we wait until the right time to move them.
As for the cleveland idea, they have a logjam of SG already. Pavlovic, wally, and Gibson more than fill the void. The problem is their backup option to mo williams is gone, but boobie gibson probably can handle that for 6 weeks. The question they'd ask is, "does this help us beat boston?". I don't think it really makes sense for them to add 26 million (wally's deal doubled for luxury tax) in '09 salary unless they get someone who really, truly puts them over the top. They need a PG who can stop Rondo's penetration. All things considered a healthy Kevin Ollie makes more sense for them right now than Mike Miller. I really like the idea of ollie+mccants+madsen for eric snow's expiring. mccants is expriring and worthless outside of that, it opens up roster space for richard/3rd point, opens up a 2009 roster spot, clears madsen's 2.8 mil off the 2009 books. I still don't think they'd do that though. Outside their expiring deals cleveland's other assets are jj hickson and a very late 2009 1st, and the relatively small long term deals of west+gibson. Not much to get excited about.
Realistically the best way to open up 2009 cap space without sacrificing the value of a long-term asset (miller, draft pick, or future expiring of cardinal) is by moving madsen and/or smith, and we have the smaller expirings of mccants,ollie, and booth to use if we can combine them with mad dog/smith to bring back a larger expiring. Keep in mind we also need to open up roster spots for all our 2009 draft picks.
mg wrote:I think we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg in terms of the economy. As I watch my League Pass I'm seeing more and more empty seats in arenas around the league. By the offseason when teams are sitting on more losses and the cap/luxury limits possibly go down we could see some very good players salary dumped. No it won't be the LeBron James or Wades types but some all-stars could be available in trade simply for capspace. Should see some free agent bargains too. It could also be another year where teams sell their picks for cash. The wolves could be sitting in a good place if they get ahead of the curve and get as far under the cap as possible now.
Good Observation. My thoughts too.
With walker's buyout we actually lost 1.5 million on the trade over the first 3 years, but gained 1.65 million if you only consider '09 and 2010 (about the difference between mayo and love's deals). We put an extra 6.8 million onto the '09 cap and saved 8.45 million in 2010.
'09
Miller+cardinal+love= 19.9 million
Jaric+Buckner(1 mil guarantee)+Walker(850k guarantee (pro-rated to buyout)+Mayo= 13.1 million
Lose 6.8 million
2010
love=3.63
mayo+jaric=12.08
Save 8.45 million
So the question is which year is it more valuable to have cap space in?
The year you are one of 3 or 4 teams fighting for boozer, marion, odom, and a bunch of crap (and marvin williams does absolutely nothing for me on this team, especially for mike miller type money).
Or in 2010 you are fighting 20 teams for bosh, wade, lebron, and amare, and RFA year for bargnani, roy, gay, aldridge and foye. Realistically the only player I see on that 2010 list changing teams is bosh, and if lebron leaves it will be for new york, new jersey, chicago or miami.
By that time the NBA may need a bailout.
To chime in on the "salary cap might shrink" thread,
Don't forget that the max salary you can offer someone coming off their rookie deal also expands and shrinks in proportion with the salary cap (which is set as a percentage of revenue). So it might not hamper teams marginally as much as you might think.
Also don't forget about inflation. The government is set to print money equal to about 10% of our GDP between the stimulus and 2nd half of the bailout money. So there is a **** of inflation coming our way, like it or not the price of everything is about to go up. Will this increase league revenue? Probably not, but it's going to squeeze the owners bigtime. 2010 might just be the year teams come to their senses and quit spending. It could be a very, very bad year for players not named lebron, wade, amare, or bosh.
The front office (not just mchale, I think stack deserves more credit here, especially for the miami and philly trades and smart contracts) has been very good at stockpiling assets. They're overly redundant and outside of Al, Love, and Foye none of them are really building blocks. Danny Ainge was also similiarly awesome at stockpiling assets. But the Celtics absolutely sucked and they were ready to run him out of town until his 2 big moves turned all those mediocre small assets into 2 big ones. We are in the same position. We are going to watch some of these assets rot on the bench in the future like Twins AAA pitchers and stay a mediocre fringe playoff team until we can make our 2 big moves. They don't have to be KG-big, but they have to add 2 undeniable cornerstones.
Here are my 2 moves.
1. Trade for Gerald Wallace (our Ray Allen move).In my opinion he is the perfect option for us at the perfect time.
His huge wingspan, shotblocking, and especially perimeter defense, are the perfect antidote to Jefferson's deficiencies and an undersized frontcourt. His ouside shooting and slashing/scoring ability are the perfect antidote to brewer's unreliability on the offensive end. He is an across the board upgrade over what we have now, only 26 years old, a potential all-star, and under control through 2012 at a flat 9.5 million per year.
He is stuck with a curmudgeon player-ripping coach (like wittman was), on the most cash-strapped team in the league who just added the long-term albatross deal of dasagana diop (the jaric contract of the 2008 free agent crop). I think any team that is willing to eat Nazr Mohammed;s deal can probably have him right now. They also probably don't have the money to re-sign may and felton long-term and will be looking to move them.
The problem: He is the most beloved player of Bobcats fans. This would be their Mayo trade. We'd have to make it sellable to their fanbase to get their ownership to pull the trigger. How do we do that?
1. Mike Miller.
gives the bobcats a player they can say replaces Wallace and meshes better with larry brown, and gives them a player who works well with diaw and augustin because of his outside shooting and allows them to move diaw to sf, and most importantly keeps them competetive in the short term. He also has a shorter contract.
One of these two:
2. Add a young asset or 2. (Corey Brewer, McCants (A Carolina native), Peckovic, Smith).
3. eat one of their bad deals.
Nazr Mohammed 3 years 19.3 mil
Morrison 2 years 9.4 milion.
My proposed compromise:
Wallace, Mohammed to MIN
Miller, McCants, Smith, Madsen, Boston pick to Charlotte.
Or MIller, Brewer, Smith, Madsen.
I know it sucks for our 2010 cap space, but Wallace is exactly the type of signing I would've wanted (and best I would expect) with that space anyway.
Move#2:
Use the rest of our assets to obtain a defensive C and future PG in the 2009 draft.
right now our picks sit at #7, 17, and 27. (Utah's is currently 18th but top 22 protected).
Rubio, Jennings, Jrue Holliday would be acceptable PG's.
Thabeet, Mullens, Jerome Jordan for centers.
Rubio has been rumored to not be coming out in 2009, partly because of his buyout, but chad ford said recently that the rumour was he'd come out only if he was a guaranteed top 3 pick.
However, draft express has taken him out of their mock and I certainly believe them over chad ford.
draft express currently has holliday 4th in their mock, Thabeet 8th, jennings 10, mullens 12, and jordan 27 (to us ironically). They have us taking stephen curry 7th (which I think is too high, and I don't like him for this team because of size/quickness/defense) and darren collison 17th.
I expect Thabeet to go much higher, if we could get him at 7 that would be a coup. Then I'd try to trade up for jennings from 17. Or if Thabeet is gone draft jennings at 7 and jordan at 17. (though jordan's stock may rise much higher than that).
Which allows us a big-man rotation of Love 32 min, Al 34 min, Thabeet/Jordan 30 mins.
It also allows us to have a shotblocker on the floor at the end of a tight game.
Jennings has a ton of potential and unbelievable quickness, but he also has holes in his game. I'm more excited at this point about Thabeet, and Jerome Jordan is really starting to grow on me.
Alot more is expected of a PG than a C, and outside of rubio I'm just not sold on this 2009 class being better than mediocre.
I know you guys are going to spout off about peckovic being the answer, but I just don't see it. From all the scouting reports I've read he isn't a good rebounder or shotblocker, his strength is low-post scoring and physicality. His weakness is quickness. He doesn't offer anything that betters what Al and Love do down low, in my opinion.
His metric measurement of 2.10 also puts him at 6'10 1/2.
