Rubio Falling & Love Trade Rumors

[the_bruce]

As much some of you love rubio and the idea of trading for love for him. I'm not a huge fan of trading up to get him, but I think there is a slight chance he simply falls into MN's lap @6 if MN stays put. Which I would also not be thrilled about since I <3 evans and harden more.

I don't think the FO is as dumb as most of you want to believe. The moves they have made over the last 2 years have for the most part been great. Besides the Selling the pick to MIA and not taking chalmers or Jordan I don't see much fault in what they have done. The FO hasn't done any big or risky move, and I simply cannot see them taking the chance of doing so for Rubio or Thabeet.

I wrote a small weighted priority java app to simulate the problem set, and based on the results I think it is fairly accurate representation of the chances of certain players falling to MN @ 6. The numbers I used to weight this decision tree are simple generalizations and a first try, but based on the results I feel they are reasonable.

Griffin: 0%
Thabeet: 2%
Rubio: 5.5%
Curry: 6%
Harden: 9.75%
Evans: 70%
Other players: ~7%

So essentially. 70% of the time MN gets evans. The other 30% MN takes whomever falls from Rubio, Curry, Thabeet, or Harden.

I did some other stuff with this app. Such as scenarios/results of MN trading up to 2 or 4 and forcing a pick on Thabeet, Harden, and Rubio. With somewhat interesting result, but far to much to analyze and explain.

I forced it to do some analysis on our later pick but meh the results are way to spread out. Besides the tragic 2% chance to get Earl Clark @18 I didn't find it very useful. I think we'd need to move up to bobcats or pacers pick to nab him.

[PeeDee]

Curry + Clark >>>>>>>>>>> trading Love for anyone in this draft.

[the_bruce]

Clark would be a great fit. I'd be super excited if MN landed Clark + (any of curry\rubio\Harden\Evans)

I'm actually hoping the FO does some wheeling and dealing to guarentee getting Clark.

[john2jer]

Curry makes me sick.
I'd personally prefer to just stick with Love and not trade up for Rubio.
I'd easily sign-off on #18/#28 being used to move up as high as we can, #13 or so? That way we can grab Earl Clark.

[4ho5ive]

who are these people here that dont believe that the FO has done a great job the past 2 years?

The only big complaints are "we should have kept Mayo" and that is way less than half of the total posters that are here regularly and those that think the FO situation was mis-handled which i think is very fair criticism.

[Dewey]

Rubio is not falling past SAC at #4. Like us, they NEED a PG.

I also say NO to Curry...

Also, I'm okay if we keep Love and draft Evans and BPA at #18. Sure, I'd love to get Rubio as my first option, but I'm thinking there will be a good chance to use 18/28 to move up and get a nice player.

[SSUBluesman]

-The Sacramento Kings are doing their best to convince people that they have Tyreke Evans at the top of their board, even going as far as to tell Evans as much in their workout last week. Most NBA people we speak to believe that this is nothing more than them “blowing smoke" in order to give themselves a backup plan in case Rubio is gone at #2 or #3, and also to “stir the pot” amongst Rubio’s camp. The Kings would very likely want Rubio to work out for them rather than just conduct a meet and greet, but as of right now there are no plans for that.

-In the unlikely case that Rubio slips past Sacramento, it appears that Washington will not hesitate to pick him if they feel like he’s indeed the best player on their draft board. The prevailing sentiment at the moment is that Rubio is not in a position to return to Joventut, and that he may have lost some of the leverage he once had by keeping his name in the draft and suing his former team.

Many feel like Rubio would be a good fit in Washington playing alongside Gilbert Arenas, but Rubio’s camp apparently does not agree with that notion at all.

Earl Clark is having some very strong workouts as of late, and is rising back up teams’ draft boards. He was very good in Minnesota apparently, and is strongly in the mix in New Jersey (#11), Charlotte (#12), Phoenix (#14) and Detroit (#15).

http://www.draftexpress.com/blog/Jonathan-Givony/#Word-on-the-Street-June-16th-3263

I've always wondered how Rubio is thought of by scouts, GM's, etc. and whether or not he really is as highly regarded as it appears.

The last part makes it sound as if Clark would need to be taken at 6 or a move up would be required to nab him.

[Mayoistooslow]

Quick question...if Rubio is falling, could we maybe not have to give up our 6th to move up? If Kahn is so determined to move Love, could we maybe go Love/18/28 for the 3rd pick, where Rubio might be available? Then we go Evans at 6 and Foye comes off the bench

[Downtown]

I've posted that #2 plus #27 equals Kevin Love plus #18. But Minnesota could do just as well by staying pat. As I posted it depends how much your GM values Rubio or Thabeet. How the rest of us view it doesn't matter.

But for sure one of the topnotch pointguards will be there for you. But I wouldn't bet on Earl Clark being a Timberwolve. He'll be long gone by #18. My gut feeling is that Omri Casspi would be a very good player for you at small forward. Every team needs that scrappy complementary type and Casspi fits that role.

Center? Gortat is a possibility. Rasho Nesterovic is still the same old steady as she goes player as he was back when you had him. BJ Mullins could be a possibility at #18 and Casspi or Dejuan Summers might still be around or a trade up with #28 and your second rounder.

Your team is alot like Memphis in that there are plenty of different routes they can take and only the inner management knows which path they'll decide to go down. But if they really want Rubio or Thabeet then the rumored trade up is possible but not likely. But letting go of a great talent like Kevin Love for the unknown potential is extremely difficult.

It's a very rare occasion when a team trades their impact player after his rookie season. I don't see it happening.

[big3_8_19_21]

I'm starting to only like about 4 players in this draft...and I don't think any of them will be there at 6.

Also if we somehow get Rubio, I don't see how Evans fits much at all (not that I even like Evans to begin with).

[B Calrissian]

Downtown, I think Memphis should be adding to a Love/2 swap not the Wolves.

[prefuse73]

yeah its tough to give up on Love even though you can make the argument that are two best players are power forwards.

For me, I just want us to focus on having the best starting 5 that we can. Thabeet is far too much of risk to trade up for. Rubio would certainley look great on our team, but he would look better with Love on it. The IQ between those two is insane.

I feel that Foye is still a viable #2 or #3 option. Curry, in a way, duplicates Foye. I feel that Evans is the ideal compliment if Foye is indeed our starting SG. Evans is the dominant ball handler, strong defender, and an athletic slasher. Foye is our spot up shooter who can create some on his own. Together they make a protypical backcourt. Rubio would look great on this team, as is, but not minus the stuff that it will take to get him here.

I like the idea of trading up to clark as well. It does mean that Gomes days are numbered. It would be nice to have a guy that can play both SF/PF and not be liability at either position.


Jefferson (28) / Gortat (20) (FA)
Love (30) / Clark (8) / Jefferson (10)
Clark (20) / Brewer (28)
Foye (18) / Miller (30)
Evans (32) / Foye (16) / Telfair

[the_bruce]

Rubio is not falling past SAC at #4. Like us, they NEED a PG.

You can by no means say they will select him 100% of the time if available. I would say at best it's 50/50 considering they will have more options available when they are on the clock.Rubios value is in decline Especially with all the flags that have been raised against rubio in the past few weeks. Even polled GM's don't have him as unanimous #1 pg in the draft. The kid isnt even working out, no athletic testing. he's several years away and a jump shot away from being anything. I woudln't even say the wolves FO would have rubio any higher than #4 on their draft board.

Personally, I prefer Evans over the kid simply because he will workout vs anyone. I like that mentality. I don't really like the idea of paying the Kid millions of dollars and he won't even workout for teams. Am I the only one this bothers??!

I'd group the players like this:

Tier 1:
Griffin

Tier 2:
Harden(heavily weighted to go @3 & 5),
Thabeet(\heavily weighted to go at #2 & 3),
Rubio(heavily weighted to go at #2 & 4),
Curry (heavily weighted to go at #5, moderately weight elsewhere)

Tier 3:
Evans (I have him moderately weighted to go at #4, the only scenario he gets past MN is if Holiday goes to SAC which is a lightly weighted possibility)

ETC
Holiday, Hill, Derozan, Jennings, Flyn, Blair, Clark, probably other ppl I forget

[Dewey]

Rubio is not falling past SAC at #4. Like us, they NEED a PG.

You can by no means say they will select him 100% of the time if available. I would say at best it's 50/50 considering they will have more options available when they are on the clock.Rubios value is in decline Especially with all the flags that have been raised against rubio in the past few weeks. Even polled GM's don't have him as unanimous #1 pg in the draft. The kid isnt even working out, no athletic testing. he's several years away and a jump shot away from being anything. I woudln't even say the wolves FO would have rubio any higher than #4 on their draft board.

Personally, I prefer Evans over the kid simply because he will workout vs anyone. I like that mentality. I don't really like the idea of paying the Kid millions of dollars and he won't even workout for teams. Am I the only one this bothers??!

I'd group the players like this:

Tier 1:
Griffin

Tier 2:
Harden(heavily weighted to go @3 & 5),
Thabeet(\heavily weighted to go at #2 & 3),
Rubio(heavily weighted to go at #2 & 4),
Curry (heavily weighted to go at #5, moderately weight elsewhere)

Tier 3:
Evans (I have him moderately weighted to go at #4, the only scenario he gets past MN is if Holiday goes to SAC which is a lightly weighted possibility)

ETC
Holiday, Hill, Derozan, Jennings, Flyn, Blair, Clark, probably other ppl I forget

If I knew that I would be a GM and drafting him myself ...

Shucks, just watching videos on youtube is far more entertaining than all others. I agree with almost all of what you said, but he is simply a true basketball player and believe he would be worth every penny of admission. I've seen enough idiots hanging on the rim thumping there chest like there something to watch, but this kid is really is, "something to watch".

[cpfsf]

As much some of you love rubio and the idea of trading for love for him. I'm not a huge fan of trading up to get him, but I think there is a slight chance he simply falls into MN's lap @6 if MN stays put. Which I would also not be thrilled about since I <3 evans and harden more.

Rubio won't fall into our laps, his trade value is too high.

[the_bruce]

Rubio won't fall into our laps, his trade value is too high.

You can't make that sort of assumption. Teams will not necessarily be willing to pick him for trade value since he has raised concerns about playing time and other factors have been raised. I think only NYK, SAC, & MN are in the position to make quality offers.

MEM - omg no I don't want to play there.
OKC - ZOMG WESTBROOK HEKP
SAC - Sure I'll play in SAC, but I'm still not working out for you. Sure you had Evans & Harden kill in their workouts. Jennings busted up your group workout, but trust me I'll stop by and chat with you in a suit. Hell if you are lucky I'll play against some chairs like Yi did!!
WAS - I don't think I fit here. Other teams could trade up but again it could be a hard sell considering his lack of flexibility
MN - See SAC
GSW - Possible tradeup scenario blocked by Ellis
NYK - Would be a fit, but would they value him over curry??
TOR - Calderon
MIL - financial concerns limit them in tradeups

[Dewey]

Rubio is going to be best in an uptempo game for the most part, but e same time, he does do a really nice job in the half-court due to his ability to execute the pick-n-roll. His court vision is excellent. Therefore, if we draft Rubio, we'd need players who get up & down the floor and can run the rick-n-roll. Simple.

IMO: Miller, Brewer, and Carney would be suitors due to speed and full-court play. Foye and Gomes are a little slower paced and naturally less of a fit. Love and Madsen are better pick-n-roll guys by nature than Jefferson and Smith. Now, I highly doubt Jefferson is out because if we were to get Rubio, but I'd now have to consider Smith, Foye, and Gomes as my most tradeable assets.

So, assuming we nabbed Rubio with #6, my next pick will need to run the floor and execute a pick-n-roll.

His weakness ... Shooting off the dribble and off picks. Shoots fine if he can set up (free-throws & 3-pointers off a skip pass). Manuvering to and around the basket for layups are good as is his floater in the lane. His best strength (looking to pass) seems to be responsible for his biggest weakness (shooting) ...

[cpfsf]

Rubio won't fall into our laps, his trade value is too high.

You can't make that sort of assumption. Teams will not necessarily be willing to pick him for trade value since he has raised concerns about playing time and other factors have been raised. I think only NYK, SAC, & MN are in the position to make quality offers.

MEM - omg no I don't want to play there.
OKC - ZOMG WESTBROOK HEKP
SAC - Sure I'll play in SAC, but I'm still not working out for you. Sure you had Evans & Harden kill in their workouts. Jennings busted up your group workout, but trust me I'll stop by and chat with you in a suit. Hell if you are lucky I'll play against some chairs like Yi did!!
WAS - I don't think I fit here. Other teams could trade up but again it could be a hard sell considering his lack of flexibility
MN - See SAC
GSW - Possible tradeup scenario blocked by Ellis
NYK - Would be a fit, but would they value him over curry??
TOR - Calderon
MIL - financial concerns limit them in tradeups

If Rubio falls into our laps and I mean drafted him at #6 (assuming no injuries or skeletons come out of his closet between now and draft day) , I will change my avatar to look like Rubio, America's next future Axe model. Minnesota can make a quality offer, we have the pieces to trade and everyone knows we can use a point guard like him. My prediction is he will at worst be drafted fourth.

not my main point but... http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/06/10/consensus/index.html not one predicted him falling him to number 5.

[Dewey]

We have the assets to get the Rube, and I'm banking on Kahn using them. Once that's done, we have players and enough later picks to get a 2nd quality player before the summer is over.

A real-true-legitimate-pass first-PG ... Wow.

Did you know he's been the defensive player of the year TWICE ... he's 19 !!!!

[skorff26]

Please no Curry

And I would love to get Rubio, he has shown that he can play at a higher level than anyone else in the draft and he is also younger than anyone else in the draft. He's the type of PG that you build teams around.