A draft day deal we should consider...

[Foye]

Pek would bring all the inside scoring of Al, only he won't take 8 seconds off the shot clock to do it.

Put play even less D. and average 5 rebs/36

[LordBaldric]

Big Al's scoring isn't worth a hill of beans more because it's in the post. He doesn't bring any of the side benefits that scoring in the post should bring, thus his scoring ability should be looked upon as that of a mid-range jump shooter with a similar FG%. Having Flynn and Love running pick and pops at the 3 point line would probably yield more efficient scoring.

Add in his not just bad, but putrid defense and you have a guy that is quite overrated. Thank god he is at least a good rebounder.

[Krapinsky]

Big Al's scoring isn't worth a hill of beans more because it's in the post. He doesn't bring any of the side benefits that scoring in the post should bring, thus his scoring ability should be looked upon as that of a mid-range jump shooter with a similar FG%. Having Flynn and Love running pick and pops at the 3 point line would probably yield more efficient scoring.

Add in his not just bad, but putrid defense and you have a guy that is quite overrated. Thank god he is at least a good rebounder.

He doesn't draw double teams, space the floor, and create open shots for others?

When he was peaking last year before injury he started making our putrid roster look pretty good.

[AQuintus]

I really don't understand this trade. The basic premise is that Love and Al don't work together defensively, so one of them needs to be traded, correct? Based on that premise, you're concluding that Love should be traded?

I can see why you would take Al over Love on a pure talent basis, but in doing so you're ignoring all the other reasons that people think that Al won't be here next year. Chief amongst them is that Al just flat out doesn't fit what Kahn and Rambis want to do with this team.

Neither Al or Love is a good defensive player, so that side of the ball can be ignored, but despite Al's offensive talent, Love is the better fit going forward. Due to Al needing the ball for a large part of each possession to get a good look in the low post, he isn't a good fit in Rambis' the ball movement based half court offense, and he obviously doesn't work in the run and gun full court offense Kahn wants. Love, on the other hand, is much more suited to playing off the ball in the half court, and his outlet passing and trailing 3 point shooting make him more suited to the full court game.

Love would also be a better fit with Wall (or Rubio, or Turner, or even Johnson) due to the fact that he has a role players skill set. He's not going to take the ball out of their hands and make them watch him work in the post from the perimeter, and he won't clog up the lane preventing them from driving to the hoop.

Due to that, I really don't see it as keep Al or keep Love, it's more like trade Al and keep Love or trade them both.

You also say that Al's game is more rare than Love's and I just don't see it. Al definitely has the prettier post moves, probably the prettiest in the NBA, but they don't make him a more successful player. Even when 100% healthy, he still shoots at under 50% and doesn't draw fouls. Yes, he does disrupt the other team's defense and draws double teams, but do to his poor vision in the post, they're wasted. Love, on the other hand, is a guy who can give you 12 rebounds a game and 40% 3 point shooting. The only other player in the NBA who can do that is Troy Murphy, and Love projects to be a much better player than Murphy. I would say that Love's talents are much more rare.

As far as your original trade goes, I don't like the value. Not only do we get smaller (both height and girth wise) but we also manage to get older. I would definitely move Love for either Wall, Turner, and maybe Favors, but not Johnson. A 6'7" 200 pound SF who only started dominating once he was older than his peers just sounds like the perfect storm of bust potential to me.

[Krapinsky]

I really don't understand this trade. The basic premise is that Love and Al don't work together defensively, so one of them needs to be traded, correct? Based on that premise, you're concluding that Love should be traded?

I can see why you would take Al over Love on a pure talent basis, but in doing so you're ignoring all the other reasons that people think that Al won't be here next year. Chief amongst them is that Al just flat out doesn't fit what Kahn and Rambis want to do with this team.

Neither Al or Love is a good defensive player, so that side of the ball can be ignored, but despite Al's offensive talent, Love is the better fit going forward. Due to Al needing the ball for a large part of each possession to get a good look in the low post, he isn't a good fit in Rambis' the ball movement based half court offense, and he obviously doesn't work in the run and gun full court offense Kahn wants. Love, on the other hand, is much more suited to playing off the ball in the half court, and his outlet passing and trailing 3 point shooting make him more suited to the full court game.

Love would also be a better fit with Wall (or Rubio, or Turner, or even Johnson) due to the fact that he has a role players skill set. He's not going to take the ball out of their hands and make them watch him work in the post from the perimeter, and he won't clog up the lane preventing them from driving to the hoop.

Due to that, I really don't see it as keep Al or keep Love, it's more like trade Al and keep Love or trade them both.

You also say that Al's game is more rare than Love's and I just don't see it. Al definitely has the prettier post moves, probably the prettiest in the NBA, but they don't make him a more successful player. Even when 100% healthy, he still shoots at under 50% and doesn't draw fouls. Yes, he does disrupt the other team's defense and draws double teams, but do to his poor vision in the post, they're wasted. Love, on the other hand, is a guy who can give you 12 rebounds a game and 40% 3 point shooting. The only other player in the NBA who can do that is Troy Murphy, and Love projects to be a much better player than Murphy. I would say that Love's talents are much more rare.

As far as your original trade goes, I don't like the value. Not only do we get smaller (both height and girth wise) but we also manage to get older. I would definitely move Love for either Wall, Turner, and maybe Favors, but not Johnson. A 6'7" 200 pound SF who only started dominating once he was older than his peers just sounds like the perfect storm of bust potential to me.

Well, for me it's a little more complicated than that, but you raise a lot of good points (esp. re fit) and I appreciate this insightful post.

I'm at work and don't have the time to respond here the way your post deserves but I'll do my best to raise your points and address them in tweet fashion --

Defense -- I think Al is the better defender. There are at least some players Al does match up with, but I've yet to see any Love matches up with.

Al's offense -- My issue wit looking at his % "even when healthy" is the guy has never had a chance to play on a good team and be surrounded by capable talent that would help draw attention from his double teams. Double teams are not easy to go up against, and a post player is much more likely to draw a foul going against overwhelmed single coverage instead of having to be extra nifty avoiding the double team. As Al gets his athleticim and quickeness back, and starts seeing more single coverage, I think he'll get to the line more. Last, If he's surrounded by more capable 3 pt shooters I think you'll see the ball come out of the post faster and you wouldn't see him holding onto it for 6 seconds at a time (i hate that as well). Hard to say whether it's poor vision or justified hesitancy on his part. The fact that Rambis has him facing the basket definitely makes it harder to find guys out of the post, although easier to see the double team coming. Trading Al leaves us with no inside post presence, except for what we can hope Pekovic can be. Love get's the ball in the post an dit immediately looks helpless.

Love's offense -- He can hit a spot up jump shot and score on put backs (sometimes). He's not a high volume jump shooter though, and because of his conditioning, i dont think he ever will be. Sometimes I see a worse shooting Troy Murhphy, sometimes I see a more agile Big Baby.

Re Johnson -- You either like him or you don't. i think he's better and a better fit than any other wing we could get in a Love trade. If you have other realistic options I would be glad to hear them. He's incredibly athletic, has great size for his postion, can shoot the lights out, and has been talked about as a potential top 5 pick since the beginning of the season. IMO that combination almost never busts.

[Narf]

False. I think Love will get better, but that doesn't mean his trade value will improve. His ceiling isn't too high because of his limited athletic ability and length. As he does improve he gets closer to free agency and his value decreases. He won't fetch a top 5 pick with only one year on his deal. Would you trade a top 5 pick for David Lee? How about when David Lee is signed after this season?

I don't agree with the basic premise here. David Lee is 26 and almost at the end of his 5th year in the NBA. Kevin Love is 21 in his 2nd year in the NBA and made significant improvements over the previous year....which was a historically good year for a rookie rebounder. He is significantly better than Lee at the same age, he's better than Lee now IMO, and he's still improving. And his rebounding advantage is no small thing. When he's on the floor we get 7.6% more rebounds than the other team. When he's not on the floor they get slightly more than 50% of the rebounds. That's a pretty good indicator of his impact as a rebounder. What that equates to is about 1.2 possessions a quarter. So for every 12 minutes Love is in the game, we have 1.2 more possessions than the other team upon which to score.

Lee is a nice player, but he's also a bad defender and probably not going to improve much from here on out. Love, like Lee, ought to improve quite a bit from age 21 to age 26. Most bigs do. He also ought to improve his rebounding rate....allegedly anyway. If he doesn't improve as much as we hope next year, he's still worth as much as he is today. So for a rebuilding team, we can only really lose value by trading him so early.

Now, I don't actually have a big problem with your trade per say. Wes Johnson looks like a darn good prospect to me and Love is a more palatable piece for a rebuilding team (with a top 5 pick) to trade for. But I don't understand the notion that his value won't go up as he improves. It's hard for me to imagine him NOT getting better from age 21 to age 24. And Lee is worth a lot more today than he was in his 2nd season because he got a lot better.

[Krapinsky]

narfy-- Your last point is a fair one, but I disagree that Love is better than Lee now and i'm not sure that he ever will be. I'm somewhat skeptical that Lee even as much as he's improved is worth more now that he was in his second year putting up doubles doubles. You're ignoring the overwhelming contract situation. A player with a few years on his rookie deal is worth more than player with one year on his deal or a player that, like Lee, is going to require 1/6th of the cap next year.

Maybe look at some other players with subpar athleticism from a year before Love's rookie year. Has Jeff Green's value gone up or down or stayed the same? Feel free to come up with others, but not players who were drafte dhigh becasue of their raw athleticism.

Adressing Love/Lee tangentially, Lee is more athletic though and has essentially looked good being the #1 option on that team. I feel confident projecting that Love will never have equivalent offensive skills. Despite all the hoopla over Love's passing, Lee is the better passer inthe half court. Their defense is a wash probably. I hope Love will get better, and I'm sure he will, but he's never going to jump much higher or run any faster or grow taller and because of that I don't know how much he can improve. BBIQ will only take you so far (see Walton, Luke).

[Narf]

narfy-- Your last point is a fair one, but I disagree that Love is better than Lee now and i'm not sure that he ever will be. I'm somewhat skeptical that Lee even as much as he's improved is worth more now that he was in his second year putting up doubles doubles. You're ignoring the overwhelming contract situation. A player with a few years on his rookie deal is worth more than player with one year on his deal or a player that, like Lee, is going to require 1/6th of the cap next year.

Maybe look at some other players with subpar athleticism from a year before Love's rookie year. Has Jeff Green's value gone up or down or stayed the same? Feel free to come up with others, but not players who were drafte dhigh becasue of their raw athleticism.

Adressing Love/Lee tangentially, Lee is more athletic though and has essentially looked good being the #1 option on that team. I feel confident projecting that Love will never have equivalent offensive skills. Despite all the hoopla over Love's passing, Lee is the better passer inthe half court. Their defense is a wash probably. I hope Love will get better, and I'm sure he will, but he's never going to jump much higher or run any faster or grow taller and because of that I don't know how much he can improve. BBIQ will only take you so far (see Walton, Luke).

Luke Walton is a terrible comparison to Love.

Compare their per 36 stats
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eda02.html

You can see the trends. David Lee is the same rebounder as last year and the year before. Shoots the same FG%. Has the same blocks and steals. The one thing he's done is take on more of the scoring load, with more assists and points per 36. Other than that, he's basically the same all around player. But look at all the years before it. A steady trend line going up until this point, that's what you see with most players from 20 years old to 26. Or maybe 24. Or maybe 28. But it generally goes up and then levels out. It's too early to say that Lee won't get better, he might. But Love almost certainly will.

Love is better across the board than he was last year (except blocks and steals). More points, more rebounds, fewer fouls, more assists, better TS%. He's making big improvements. I would expect to see more improvements next year, and more the year after that. And after that who knows, some players level out early others later.

Now compare them on a per-36 basis
Lee- 19.5 points, 11.2 rebounds, 3.5 asssists, blocks and steals suck
Love- 18.2 points, 13.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, blocks and steals suck

We expect Love to improve his per-36 scoring, that's almost a given. Almost every "good" big from 21-24 improves their scoring. I expect he'll improve his assists as well, simply because he's got that skill set. And I expect him to improve his rebounding slightly as well. I don't think I've ever seen a player who hit his rebounding peak at age 21. Lee improved his rebounding after 21. Dwight Howard improved from 21. Kevin Garnett improved from 21. Everyone I can think of and look up improved their rebounding at that age. Trends say he should improve it. So when Kevin Love is out there for 32 minutes a game, and grabing 14.4 rebounds per 36, now what's he worth? 1.5 possessions per 12 minutes on the floor? 4 bonus points a game just because of his rebounding?

Anyway, that's where I'm coming from. Lee is similar to Love in a lot of ways, but Love projects to be better across the board. And I hate to say it, but both of them will probably suck on D for the next 10 years. Oh well.

[Biff Cooper]

Big Al's scoring isn't worth a hill of beans more because it's in the post. He doesn't bring any of the side benefits that scoring in the post should bring, thus his scoring ability should be looked upon as that of a mid-range jump shooter with a similar FG%.

I don't understand what you are getting at?

I do think that either Al or Love will be traded this offseason. Which one will probably be determined by who we draft with our first round pick. There are definite advantages to trading one over the other or vice versa. I'm not going to be happy in a few years if the only way we can score is by shooting jump shots. I think Al's post up ability could be a powerful weapon for a good team scoring in crunch time.

[horaceworthy]

FUnny how one person complains we're trading for an older player and another complains were trading for a rookie. Personally, I just want a roster that makes sense, and one thing I know is Love and Jefferson don't make sense together. Why not trade the player who's value is probably at it's peak than the one that is at it's lowest point? Down the road Love's abilities are easier to replace than Jefferson's and his weaknesses are only going to become more glowing.

The funny thing is that both assertions are correct.

I'm not sure Love's abilities are easier to replace than Jefferson's. Both are pretty unique players with significant flaws. Jefferson's got the higher upside if everything clicks, IMHO, Love looks to be the better fit for the direction Kahn/Rambis want to take the team in. Love's cheaper at the moment, and any extension he gets will fall under the umbrella of the new CBA. Neither's untouchable, and I'm not sure I'd be surprised if both were traded by the time Kahn's rebuild comes to a close.

[Krapinsky]

You missed my point compeletely. Just because I bring up a player doesn't mean I'm comparing the 2. This happens all the time on these boards. Walton is an extreme example of a high bbiq, low athleticism player. The example was used to show that his limited athletic ability limits his ceiling as a player. A player like Favors, Garnett, Howard, is drafted so high becasue their athleticim is giant indicator that they have mad potential. Love does not have this athleticism.

Lee's higher athletlic ability allowed him to improve more from 21-24 than I expect Love to improve. The fact that you brought up the two most athletic big man prospects of perhaps all time, hence ignoring me when I said "Feel free to come up with others, but not players who were drafted high becasue of their raw athleticism" fails to rebut my point.

As for comparing Love and Lee -- you can't compare them on a per 36 minute basis. The numbers show that when Love's playing time goes up his productivity decreases. This has been discussed at length here in the past when posters have griped about Love's playing time. You also ignore how these points are manufactured.

[PeeDee]

Outta the way, Pek.

[Narf]

"Feel free to come up with others, but not players who were drafted high becasue of their raw athleticism" fails to rebut my point.

Feel free to come up with one who had a good career and didn't improve his scoring ability after age 21.

But who's more athletic? Kevin Love had a 35 inch vertical and a 3.22 sprint speed down the court. He was surprisingly athletic at the combine. I don't agree with your notion that he can't run and jump as well as David Lee.

[Rashoismydad]

Why does anybody assume Jefferson value will ever be higher than it is now? It wont be.

Jefferson is no longer an upside player, hes reached his prime and his game is what it is. Its also much clearer Jeffersons numbers were inflated in previous years due to the basic "good player on a bad team" situation and total green light. His lack of defensive awareness and effort, as well as his vision and passing issues are clear staples of his game now, and not a dirty little secret. Then when you look at his contract, you see he is drastically overpaid.

Jefferson is never going to get a chance to be the #1 offensive option with the wolves again. Hes not going to be force fed post opportunities that give him the chance to post empty inflated numbers again. You are viewing Jefferson with extremely rose colored glasses.

And if anybody here thinks Jefferson is a better post defender than Love, stab your eyes out because they are worthless to you. Maybe his length makes Jefferson a better potential help defender, but his awareness negates that. I dont ever recall Love having to come out of the game because he was getting housed on the box. But I seem to remember okafor making Jefferson his b*tch until Jefferson had to be pulled from the game. Love is a solid post defender who at least knows where to be and his rotations. Jefferson regularly just stands there and watches guys dunk.

If Jefferson is on this roster next season, it will be a failure for Kahn and I will start to rethink my support of him.

[Narf]

Why does anybody assume Jefferson value will ever be higher than it is now? It wont be.

Because he was a 22/11/1.7 guy when he was healthy. Healthy Jefferson has way more value than "is he every going to get back to what he was" Jefferson. Whether he'll improve from that level or not is a different question than whether or not he'll get back to that level. I know you hate Jefferson, but you don't honestly think his rebounding rate dropped from last year to this year because we're a good team now...right?

[Worm Guts]

Why does anybody assume Jefferson value will ever be higher than it is now? It wont be.

Jefferson is no longer an upside player, hes reached his prime and his game is what it is. Its also much clearer Jeffersons numbers were inflated in previous years due to the basic "good player on a bad team" situation and total green light. His lack of defensive awareness and effort, as well as his vision and passing issues are clear staples of his game now, and not a dirty little secret. Then when you look at his contract, you see he is drastically overpaid.

Even if you don't like Jefferson's game, which I understand, he obviously hasn't fully recovered from his injury last year. He's not playing near the same level as he was last year. Most poster assume his play will return to form, and if it does his value will go up. There's no doubt about it.

[Krapinsky]

http://dimemag.com/2009/01/is-al-jefferson-an-all-star/

[Narf]

I think the better way to look at it from your point of view Rasho is that Al Jefferson's rebounding rate and blocks dropped to it's lowest level in his career and his PER dropped to it's lowest rate in 4 years. If he's a good player on a bad team that explains his PER dropping....if our team didn't absolutely suck this year. But that doesn't explain the drops in rebounds and blocks. Rebounding is pretty constant, and it's not like he didn't play with Love last year. A leg injury, on the other hand, explains all 3 dropping.

If Al comes back next year fully recovered and rebounding and blocking as well as he has the last couple years, his value goes way up. We can make a trade once other teams see he's healthy and will pay for his full value (whatever that is, we might disagree on it but it's clearly higher than it is now).

[Rashoismydad]

You people are epic excuse makers and are unwilling to see the plain reality.

Al Jeffersons value isnt low because of this injury. I dont think many NBA GMs are too concerned with his ability to get 100% healthy and be the same player he was. Sadly, thats the problem. When he came to MN he was he centerpiece of a deal for a superstar, and people attached more hope to him. He was a young player with upside who was finally going to get a chance to turn into a star. Today as it stands, hes the same player he was 3 years ago but with a larger injury history, a mature contract, and warts that can not be ignored.

He no longer has the promise of upside to inflate his value. He no longer has a cheap contract to make him a great value. He wont have the chance to post inflated numbers to artificially raise his value. Hes inefficient, a volume scorer, horrid defender, unwilling/unable passer, and worst of all he barely gives any effort unless its to get his shot up. THATS why Jeffersons value wont increase.

Maybe we should trade for monta ellis? Hes a one way loser with inflated stats and a horrid contract too. Oh wait, Ellis at least sometimes tries on defense so he immediately has the edge on Jefferson. Nobody but ultra homer wolves fans think Jefferson is an all star calibur player. Refer to his 23/11 nonsense all you want. I will be here to point out it was for half a season on 19.5 shots for one of the worst teams in the NBA. I know you guys would really like him to be a great player, but he isnt. I watch you people act like NBA GMs are drooling for his post scoring, they arent.

I want to clarify that he WILL gain some value when he shows hes back to 100%, but you also have to leverage that against the fact he becomes a year older, more expensive, and has that much less left on his contract. Any team that would want him would go under the assumption he will be back to 100% next season, so thats why I say it doesnt really effect his value right now.

[Narf]

You people are epic excuse makers and are unwilling to see the plain reality.

Nobody but ultra homer wolves fans think Jefferson is an all star calibur player. Refer to his 23/11 nonsense all you want. I will be here to point out it was for half a season on 19.5 shots for one of the worst teams in the NBA. I know you guys would really like him to be a great player, but he isnt. I watch you people act like NBA GMs are drooling for his post scoring, they arent.

There are some very unbiased and basketball savvy people on some other RealGM boards. Why don't you post this in one of the general boards and see how other smart people who are fans of other smart teams rip you apart for this. Just because you hate Al Jefferson does not mean every NBA GM in the league hates him. And I'm willing to bet 95% of smart posters from other teams would say you are dead wrong about his trade value and his value on the court when healthy.

I'd also like to point out that you forgot something. It's 23/11/1.7. The year before it was 21/11/1.5. But it was only for a half year (50 games) right? And his marginal improvement couldn't possibly be explained by him getting better, after all.