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Trader_Joe wrote:Long story short ...
It looks like he hasn't improved at all on defense or rebounding. Both are average at best and not that hard to gauge.
Prokorov wrote:Trader_Joe wrote:Long story short ...
It looks like he hasn't improved at all on defense or rebounding. Both are average at best and not that hard to gauge.
you mean short story short? like lets knee jerk of 4 games that don't count?
ZOMG the sky is falling our guys didnt kill it in a game we arent even trying to win.
Mikhail Prokhorov wrote:My posse usually needs another vacation after a vacation with me.
Trader_Joe wrote:Prokorov wrote:Trader_Joe wrote:Long story short ...
It looks like he hasn't improved at all on defense or rebounding. Both are average at best and not that hard to gauge.
you mean short story short? like lets knee jerk of 4 games that don't count?
ZOMG the sky is falling our guys didnt kill it in a game we arent even trying to win.
If you are unable to tell that he hasn't improved his rebounding then there's not much more to say. Yes his defense is more subjective and in preseason but I still see the same player as last year and the same shortcomings. When are these supposed to come out exactly? He's a second year player so he should still be trying to impress while he's old enough to be able to impress.
Prokorov wrote:Trader_Joe wrote:Prokorov wrote:
you mean short story short? like lets knee jerk of 4 games that don't count?
ZOMG the sky is falling our guys didnt kill it in a game we arent even trying to win.
If you are unable to tell that he hasn't improved his rebounding then there's not much more to say. Yes his defense is more subjective and in preseason but I still see the same player as last year and the same shortcomings. When are these supposed to come out exactly? He's a second year player so he should still be trying to impress while he's old enough to be able to impress.
I personally find it really silly to conclude what a player has or has not improved on based on preseason, or based on VERY limited minutes in international play on our national team. those just really arent very meaningful, not to mention, an incredibly small sample size.
When are these suppose to come out? how about when we play games that count, that we are trying to win, within the system we will for sure be using, in the rotations he can expect to be playing in.... and most importantly, over a sample of at least 8 or 10 games (i.e. 10% of the year or so).
It's like year 6 or 7 for lopez some are still waiting for him to get better on the glass. id say lets give plumlee at least 1 regular season game in his sophmore year.
Mikhail Prokhorov wrote:My posse usually needs another vacation after a vacation with me.
Trader_Joe wrote:Plumlee is close to Lopez's age and we got crushed last year on the glass
so far this pre-season
Paradise wrote:There's still time for him to show growth. He was a late bloomer last season but if he gets outplayed tonight by Noel or whatever D-Leaguers Philly has, that's when his improvement becomes a major concern.
Preseason or not, he hasn't shown any healthy habits to start the season off. His only improvement is his new post moves which is nice but won't help us win ball games compared to rebounding and interior D will.
DarkXaero wrote:Gotta love how hypocritical Prokorov is with his posting. He will use the smallest sample size out of context to make his point, but will disregard when others do it. Apparently, our awful rebounding last season had nothing to do with Plumlee, who still rebounded at a poor rate. But Brook who improves our team rebounding is a "soft pussy" in comparison.
Mikhail Prokhorov wrote:My posse usually needs another vacation after a vacation with me.
Rainy wrote:The above statistical breakdown doesn't even attempt to identify possible confounding variables or speak to its limitations. You cite blocks, for instance, but conveniently ignore that Miles' rim protection numbers have been poor (not as bad as Lopez's though). Yes, he's been great coming from the weak side to contest shots - a testament to his lateral quickness and jumping ability - but nowhere do you mention his horrible rotations.
Too often in basketball anlsyis athleticism is conflated with good defense. There is a current meme that Plumlee is a high-IQ player, but his play thus far on the defensive end has told me anything but. Not only he is fouling at a higher rate - oftentimes because he overplays his man and/or exhibits poor timing in his contests - but also his help defense is inconsistent. The guy just doesn't know where to place himself on the floor.
Plumlee has been at his worst when the other big leaves the paint to contest a guard. Instead of picking up the guy's man and boxing him out, Plumlee just stands idly, too slow to react.
Defensive rating is really a horrible statistic. It doesn't control for significant confounding variables related to the lineup one plays in as well as the lineups one faces. Plumlee has had the luxury of facing worse units, on average, than some of our starters. And when he plays with KG in the same lineup, KG can defend the 5, where Kevin is better suited than defending the 4.
I've been most disappointed with Plumlee's PnR coverage. With his athleticism he should be really effective at hedging and rotating to cover other bigs. But he just hasn't figured out that technique or anticipation yet.
The rebounding numbers also don't speak to Plumlee's production. Besides horribly overrated in mainstream analysis, defensive rebounds vary in value depending on whether they are contested or uncontested. The latter kind of rebound has little value and follows from the counterfactual analysis that has Player B not grabbed a rebound, Teammate A could have just as easily grabbed it.
From my observation, Plumlee has grabbed a very high portion of his team's uncontested rebounds (once the tracking data for this is released, I will get it to you guys). But he has struggled on the contested boards due to a combination of poor boxing-out and not rotating to cover other bigs. Despite his athleticism, his technique isn't there yet.
An interesting exercise might be to look at combinations of our bigs to see which yield the higher defensive rebounding rates, all while keeping in mind this is a small sample (but you've opened up the floodgates there).
1. KG-Teletovic 86.1%
2. KG-Lopez 79.4%
3. KG-Plumlee 74.2%
4. Plumlee-Teletovic 71.4%
5. Plumlee-Lopez 66.7%
6. Lopez-Teletovic 65.1%
When breaking it down this way, it suggests KG is perhaps the greater cause for the Net's rebounding success, even if it is not reflected in his personal DReb%. In general, I put little stock in individual DReb% because it struggles to account for the existence of rebounding padding, as well as important things like boxing-out.
F3LON wrote:Rainy wrote:The above statistical breakdown doesn't even attempt to identify possible confounding variables or speak to its limitations. You cite blocks, for instance, but conveniently ignore that Miles' rim protection numbers have been poor (not as bad as Lopez's though). Yes, he's been great coming from the weak side to contest shots - a testament to his lateral quickness and jumping ability - but nowhere do you mention his horrible rotations.
Too often in basketball anlsyis athleticism is conflated with good defense. There is a current meme that Plumlee is a high-IQ player, but his play thus far on the defensive end has told me anything but. Not only he is fouling at a higher rate - oftentimes because he overplays his man and/or exhibits poor timing in his contests - but also his help defense is inconsistent. The guy just doesn't know where to place himself on the floor.
Plumlee has been at his worst when the other big leaves the paint to contest a guard. Instead of picking up the guy's man and boxing him out, Plumlee just stands idly, too slow to react.
Defensive rating is really a horrible statistic. It doesn't control for significant confounding variables related to the lineup one plays in as well as the lineups one faces. Plumlee has had the luxury of facing worse units, on average, than some of our starters. And when he plays with KG in the same lineup, KG can defend the 5, where Kevin is better suited than defending the 4.
I've been most disappointed with Plumlee's PnR coverage. With his athleticism he should be really effective at hedging and rotating to cover other bigs. But he just hasn't figured out that technique or anticipation yet.
The rebounding numbers also don't speak to Plumlee's production. Besides horribly overrated in mainstream analysis, defensive rebounds vary in value depending on whether they are contested or uncontested. The latter kind of rebound has little value and follows from the counterfactual analysis that has Player B not grabbed a rebound, Teammate A could have just as easily grabbed it.
From my observation, Plumlee has grabbed a very high portion of his team's uncontested rebounds (once the tracking data for this is released, I will get it to you guys). But he has struggled on the contested boards due to a combination of poor boxing-out and not rotating to cover other bigs. Despite his athleticism, his technique isn't there yet.
An interesting exercise might be to look at combinations of our bigs to see which yield the higher defensive rebounding rates, all while keeping in mind this is a small sample (but you've opened up the floodgates there).
1. KG-Teletovic 86.1%
2. KG-Lopez 79.4%
3. KG-Plumlee 74.2%
4. Plumlee-Teletovic 71.4%
5. Plumlee-Lopez 66.7%
6. Lopez-Teletovic 65.1%
When breaking it down this way, it suggests KG is perhaps the greater cause for the Net's rebounding success, even if it is not reflected in his personal DReb%. In general, I put little stock in individual DReb% because it struggles to account for the existence of rebounding padding, as well as important things like boxing-out.
Oh Rainy king of throw out the stats I dont like and using big words to try and sound smart. Speak to your audience and put the thesaurus away Clyde. This is a sports blog not an academia blog.
DRtg is important enough that it's kept as a stat. As is rebounding rate. We arent throwing those stats out because you dont like them. Uncontested rebounds however is not kept as a stat and is only referenced when you try to trivialize the value of rebounding. If player B could have gotten the rebound he would have. But he doesnt. It's like giving Lopez credit for KG making a shot because you think he would have made it also. No one cares what you think would have happened. We can only speak to what actually happened. It's a fact that Plumlee is among the top rebounders in the league this year. The fact you are even trying to argue that is ridiculous.
SpeedyG wrote:F3LON wrote:Oh Rainy king of throw out the stats I dont like and using big words to try and sound smart. Speak to your audience and put the thesaurus away Clyde. This is a sports blog not an academia blog.
DRtg is important enough that it's kept as a stat. As is rebounding rate. We arent throwing those stats out because you dont like them. Uncontested rebounds however is not kept as a stat and is only referenced when you try to trivialize the value of rebounding. If player B could have gotten the rebound he would have. But he doesnt. It's like giving Lopez credit for KG making a shot because you think he would have made it also. No one cares what you think would have happened. We can only speak to what actually happened. It's a fact that Plumlee is among the top rebounders in the league this year. The fact you are even trying to argue that is ridiculous.
Except he didn't really use any "big words". There is nothing in his post that an average high school student should not be able to comprehend.
Contested rebounds is a relatively new thing, and is just now getting traction thanks to advancement in technology. Oh by the way, it IS being tracked as a stat.
Still a small sample size this season, that said, so far this season, his contested rpg is actually higher than his uncontested. His % in contested rpg is actually higher than some of the better rebounders in the game. This wasn't the case last year for Mason though, and I expect that as the season goes on that this number will decrease and be closer to what it was last year for him.
Based on last year and this year so far, I don't think there's a doubt that KG is our best defensive rebounder though.
MrDollarBills wrote:Lopez has been playing soft as hell so none of that is surprising.
Plumlee is averaging 6rpg. He needs to find a way to keep himself on the damn floor and maybe he'll get more.
Prokorov wrote:how good a rebounder plumlee is doesnt really matter. its clear he is better at it then lopez. plumlee isnt like moses malone all of sudden, but as bad as lopez has been defensively and on the glass its worth playing plumlee more.
none of that really matters through as all 4 bigs have been pretty putrid defensively. as have our point gaurds. Anderson/Johnson/Bogs are really the only players defending worth a lick
