Mason Plumlee vs Mirza Teletovic: Who should start at PF?

[F3LON]

Their styles couldnt be more different.

Plumlee's game is built off of power



Teletovic's game is built on skill



Both are in consideration for the starting PF position. Who should Hollins start?

REBOUNDING

With Brook Lopez at center, rebounding is at the utmost importance.

Plumlee averaged 8.7 Reb/36
Mirza averaged 6.9 Reb/36

Plumlee averaged 5.9 D Reb/36
Mirza averaged 5.3 D Reb/36

Plumlee 2.8 O Reb/36
Mirza 1.5 O Reb/36

Plumlee is a better overall rebounder but this stat is misleading. Plumlee's biggest advantage was on the offensive glass which is to be expected. Mirza plays out on the perimeter on offense so he isnt in a position to get that many O-boards. If we look at just the defensive rebounds the gap narrows. Plumlee still comes out ahead but the difference is negligible. We can take away that neither is particularly good at rebounding.

DEFENSE

Since neither player distinguished themselves from the other on the glass, the decision as to who starts will likely come down to who defends better.

Plumlee had a DRtg of 104
Mirza had a DRtg of 109

Plumlee averaged 1.6 Blocks/36
Mirza averaged .6 Blocks/36

Plumlee averaged 1.4 Steals/36
Mirza averaged .7 Steals/36

No competition on who the better defender is. Plumlee is by far a better defender. He doubles Mirza in both blocks and steals which shows that he is much more active defensively while his much lower DRtg shows he is not doing it at the teams expense by gambling.

OFFENSE

Since it is clear that Plumlee is the much better defender, we have to look at how much better of an offensive player Mirza is then Plumlee. This will be hard to do with traditional offensive stats since they are completely different players. I will use TS% and eFG% since they take into account the difference between 2pters and 3pters.

Plumlee had a TS% of 67%
Mirza had a TS% of 55.9%

Plumlee had a eFG% of 65.9%
Mirza had a eFG% of 54.6%

Plumlee had a ORtg of 121
Mirza had a ORtg of 108

Plumlee went to the line 5.5/G
Mirza went to the line 1.6/G

Plumlee had a Usage rating of 17.1%
Mirza had a Usage rating of 20.5%

Plumlee had a PER of 19
Mirza had a PER of 14.3

Surprisingly Plumlee rates out as a much better offensive player then Mirza. He is by far the more efficient player. Lower usage and higher shooting %s factored for 3pters. He is actually the 2nd most efficient player on the team offensively besides Lopez.

Im sure this is where the pro Mirza crowd will bring up floor spacing but Plumlee helps space the floor as well. Plumlee plays a similar game to Tyson Chandler when he was in his prime. Even though Plumlee cant shoot he creates gravity (A term I read about elsewhere). Gravity is making the opponent accountable for you wherever you are on the court. Plumlee is the ideal pick and roll PF because if his guy leaves him he is almost an automatic 2pts on lob alley oops (Like Chandler).

Mirza helps space the floor with his 3 point shooting, there is no question about that, but he is strictly a catch and shoot option. He can not create his own offense off the dribble so defenders can close out hard on him since he isnt a threat to go by them with the dribble. That means both Mirza and Plumlee need others to create their offense. Based on the numbers, Plumlee is by far the better option offensively.

The stats dont lie, Plumlee is probably going to start. He brings more to the table then Mirza. Mirza is pretty much what he is at this point in his career while the rookie version of Plumlee is already a better player.

Mirza will still get plenty of starts though. Lopez is unlikely to play in back to backs so Mirza will probably join Plumlee in the starting lineup for those games.

LOPEZ
PLUMLEE
JOHNSON
ANDERSON
WILLIAMS

Is what I expect the starting lineup to be.

[MrDollarBills]

My vote goes to Mason. I want Mirza to get a ton of minutes but I believe that Plumlee's explosiveness and athleticism will give our starting unit a much needed dimension.

[kerry kittles]

Where's the AK47 option?

[F3LON]

My vote goes to Mason. I want Mirza to get a ton of minutes but I believe that Plumlee's explosiveness and athleticism will give our starting unit a much needed dimension.

Im excited to see him play next to Lopez. They are going to make it hard on opposing frontcourts with their ability to draw fouls.

Depending on DWills health, I think we should finally see PnR incorporated into the Nets offense.

[MrDollarBills]

Where's the AK47 option?

I like AK and I hope he gets a ton of minutes but the guy will more than likely miss a ton of games like last year.

[F3LON]

Where's the AK47 option?

I cant see AK starting a PF because you cant count on him to be healthy.

Plumlee and Mirza are both durable and closer to their prime.

That doesnt mean AK wont play a lot. He might even start instead of Anderson. I just think it makes more sense to go with a 2nd unit of

KG
Mirza
AK
Bogs or Brown
Jack

The KG-Mirza-AK frontcourt did pretty well last year.

[enetric]

I would love to see Brook healthy. If he is, I can see them going with Plumlee to offset Brooks awful rebounding.

But I think Mirza has more upside as a player. Yes...He has some awful flaws but yes....I do think he has more upside. Don't care which forward spot he plays. Making the most out of letting PP go....I want to Mirza sink or swim.

[Prokorov]

I want to start mirza at PF. mostly because to me it makes almost no sense to go away from the lineup that had so much success in 2014:

Dwill
Anderson
JJ
Mirza
KG

sure pierce started, but Mirza is similar as a stretch 4 who can shoot from 3 and put the ball on the floor. off the bench, im rolling with plumlee and brook. my rotations would be:


STARTERS

Dwill | Anderson | JJ | Mirza | KG

At the 6 minute mark, Sub in Jack for anderson and plumlee for KG:

Jack | Dwill | JJ | Mirza | Plumlee

At the 3 minute mark, Sub in Bogs for Dwill, Kirilenko for Mirza:

Jack | Bogs | JJ | Kirilenko | Plumelee

2nd QUARTER:

Jack | Bogs | Kirilenko | Plumlee | Brook

at the 6 minute mark, sub in Dwill for Jack, Brown for Kirilenko, Mirza for Plumlee:

Dwill | Brown | Bogs | Mirza | Brook

At the 3 minute mark sub in JJ for Bogs, KG for Brook:

Dwill | Brown | JJ | Mirza | KG

Do the same thing in the second half and you end up with:

MINUTES

Dwill - 30 mins (24 at PG, 6 at SG)
Jack - 24 mins(all a PG)
Anderson - 18 mins (all at SG)
Brown - 12 mins (all at SG)

Bogs - 24 mins (18 at SG, 6 at SF)
Johnson - 30 mins (all at SF)

Kirilenko - 18 mins (12 at PF, 6 at SF)
Mirza - 30 mins (all at PF)

Plumlee - 24 mins (12 at C, 12 at PF)
KG - 18 mins (all at C)
Lopez - 18 mins (all at C)

then you ramp up brooks minutes as health dictates.

[M I K E]

If Lopez starts at center, Plumlee.

Big if though when considering Lopez might be one more broken foot away from the end IMO.

If Lopez goes down, Plumlee steps in at Center position. Tele PF.

Not counting on Garnett as a major force anymore.

[MGrand15]

Calling Mason the better offensive player because of TS% is very misleading and you downplay how different their roles were. Mason's job was strictly to catch and finish inside. He had the luxury of doing this around 4 perimeter players. That skill is very useful but it becomes less useful when he's playing next to another big who 1. clogs the paint 2. finishes inside very well.

If he's playing at PF, he's going to have to float more and most likely take jump shots. At PF, you actively hurt your team when you refuse to take shots outside the paint. Will Mason's awesome TS% stay the same or even close in a bigger role? He's not gonna have a huge speed advantage on defense/offense anymore either.

While Mirza wasn't great, there's no doubt that he is better offensively AT PF. And he's not Matt Bonner, he can definitely go by you if you stick on him at the 3pt line. He's not elite at it but he's definitely a threat.

Your argument that Mason Plumlee "spaces" the floor because he can finish inside makes very little sense. Yes, playing Plumlee at PF isn't the same as playing Reggie Evans at PF. You can't COMPLETELY ignore him but you can definitely cheat way off of him. You can keep one extra defender in the paint when Lopez or JJ are posting. You know exactly where Plumlee is going to end up as a defender.

I like Plumlee but this guy is limited. He had to be benched in the playoffs from how bad he was bottled up. That's what happens to one dimensional players on offense. Compare that to Mirza, who stepped up to the challenge of being prepared for and thrived in the playoffs.

He doesn't play Tyson Chandler defense or rebound like him. If he's not surrounded by shooters, his offense is going to suffer... just like Chandler's. Let's not overrate him and throw him into the fire of starting at a position he never really played last year. Play him at PF in spurts, in different combinations and see how he fares.

Look at it this way - the Spurs took years to develop the Splitter/Duncan combination so they can properly work on offense. Yet we think Plumlee/Lopez is going to work out this season? Our guys are worse at everything than those 2 except for Plumlee's finishing and Lopez's post game. Passing, defense, rebounding, BBIQ, experience, jump shot - easily go to Splitter/Duncan. This is the challenge we face if Hollins decides to go with Plums.

[therealbig3]

I'd honestly rather try the Lopez-Garnett combination before I put either of these guys at starting PF.

KG looked bad at PF, but he also got a lot better as the season went on, and I don't necessarily think it was position-dependent.

He's also the only legit rebounder we have on the roster.

[Prokorov]

I'd honestly rather try the Lopez-Garnett combination before I put either of these guys at starting PF.

KG looked bad at PF, but he also got a lot better as the season went on, and I don't necessarily think it was position-dependent.

He's also the only legit rebounder we have on the roster.

the barganis of the worlds driving past KG like he was nailed to the floor and then dunking last year were all i needed to now the guy shouldnt spend another second at PF.

[therealbig3]

I'd honestly rather try the Lopez-Garnett combination before I put either of these guys at starting PF.

KG looked bad at PF, but he also got a lot better as the season went on, and I don't necessarily think it was position-dependent.

He's also the only legit rebounder we have on the roster.

the barganis of the worlds driving past KG like he was nailed to the floor and then dunking last year were all i needed to now the guy shouldnt spend another second at PF.

True, but I don't think things would be any better with Mirza or Plumlee.

We'll get killed defensively either way as long as they're paired up with Lopez, and neither of them are good defensive rebounders either, just like Lopez.

[kerry kittles]

I'd honestly rather try the Lopez-Garnett combination before I put either of these guys at starting PF.

KG looked bad at PF, but he also got a lot better as the season went on, and I don't necessarily think it was position-dependent.

He's also the only legit rebounder we have on the roster.

the barganis of the worlds driving past KG like he was nailed to the floor and then dunking last year were all i needed to now the guy shouldnt spend another second at PF.

True, but I don't think things would be any better with Mirza or Plumlee.

We'll get killed defensively either way as long as they're paired up with Lopez, and neither of them are good defensive rebounders either, just like Lopez.

This why I want to give AK a look health permitting. He's the same size as Mirza and has a longer wingspan: 6'9" with a 7'4" wingspan. He's not a great rebounder, but I think he could go up a tick if starting. He's a good help defender and I think it's just good in general to have a guy with his basketball IQ on the court. He doesn't space the court like Mirza on offense, but he's great at moving off ball and finding the open spaces on the court. Drawback is Brook isn't great at passing out of double teams. I still want to give it a look. AK had a down year for sure, but he opted in because he wants to be more a contributor. I think he can bounce back if healthy and I think this could be a good fit.

[Prokorov]

True, but I don't think things would be any better with Mirza or Plumlee.

We'll get killed defensively either way as long as they're paired up with Lopez, and neither of them are good defensive rebounders either, just like Lopez.

While mirza is not a great defender, i would say he is a sizeable defensive upgrade to garnett at the 4.

we dont have good rebounders. 1 through 15 we have 1 good rebounder. its just something we are going to need to take on the chin. for me, id rather not throw our best rebounder in there, id rather take the hit and focus more on doing what we do well. like last year, we got killed on the boards, but we forced turnovers and spread the floor which gave us some advantages on our end.

I also dont see the need to start brook. i mean, his deficiencies are minimized when you bring him off the bench vs. second units, and his strong spots are magnified, as no second unit player is going to check him.

I also think its imperative joe and Brook play fewer minutes with eachother. both seem to excel having things run through them. the rotation i posted above, they spend 0 minutes on the floor together.

[Bro Johnson]

Need to know the rest of the starting lineup.

If AK-47 were to start at SF you would need Mirza to space the floor, if Alan Anderson starts it's a toss up since he's extremely inconsistent but I'd like to think you could get away with Plumlee, if Jack is starting at the two you can go with either but I'd probably opt to go with Plumlee.

[F3LON]

Calling Mason the better offensive player because of TS% is very misleading and you downplay how different their roles were. Mason's job was strictly to catch and finish inside. He had the luxury of doing this around 4 perimeter players. That skill is very useful but it becomes less useful when he's playing next to another big who 1. clogs the paint 2. finishes inside very well.

If he's playing at PF, he's going to have to float more and most likely take jump shots. At PF, you actively hurt your team when you refuse to take shots outside the paint. Will Mason's awesome TS% stay the same or even close in a bigger role? He's not gonna have a huge speed advantage on defense/offense anymore either.

TS% isnt misleading. It factors that shooting 33% on 3's is the equivalent of shooting 50% on 2pters. When you consider how many offensive rebounds players like Hump and Reggie got from playing next to Lopez, I find it hard to see why Plumlee wont excel in garbage points. His guy is going to have to be the one who helps on Lopez since JJ, DWill and AA can all hit 3s. When that happens Plumlee is going to feast on garbage point put backs. He isnt Reggie Evans down there who couldnt convert 5 ft in the paint.

Plumlee never had a huge speed advantage; his advantage is that he jumps really high for a big. He has power in the air like Shawn Kemp and Blake Griffin do. Playing PF just gives him more of a size advantage. Besides there will be 4 guys on the floor who can hit jumpers. Last time I checked Lopez was an excellent jump shooter.

While Mirza wasn't great, there's no doubt that he is better offensively AT PF. And he's not Matt Bonner, he can definitely go by you if you stick on him at the 3pt line. He's not elite at it but he's definitely a threat.

The numbers say otherwise. Mirza shot only 51.3% at the rim compared to Plumlee's 75.9% which is much more reflective of what a PF does on offense. Mirza is an afterthought outside of his 3pt shooting.

Your argument that Mason Plumlee "spaces" the floor because he can finish inside makes very little sense. Yes, playing Plumlee at PF isn't the same as playing Reggie Evans at PF. You can't COMPLETELY ignore him but you can definitely cheat way off of him. You can keep one extra defender in the paint when Lopez or JJ are posting. You know exactly where Plumlee is going to end up as a defender.

Plumlee is going to be the pick to DWill's roll. The better option for us is for the big guarding Plumlee to stay home so DWIll can get space to shoot or drive. As soon as his man leaves Plumlee its over. There are only a handful of guys like DeAndre Jordan and Dwight who are going to out jump Plumlee on lobs. He will either dunk, get fouled and go to the line or both.

Mirza stands on the three point line and doesnt move he is much easier to account for since is isnt involved in the play.

I like Plumlee but this guy is limited. He had to be benched in the playoffs from how bad he was bottled up. That's what happens to one dimensional players on offense. Compare that to Mirza, who stepped up to the challenge of being prepared for and thrived in the playoffs.

He doesn't play Tyson Chandler defense or rebound like him. If he's not surrounded by shooters, his offense is going to suffer... just like Chandler's. Let's not overrate him and throw him into the fire of starting at a position he never really played last year. Play him at PF in spurts, in different combinations and see how he fares.

I never said Plumlee wasnt limited. He hit the rookie wall in the playoffs, it's not the first time that has happened to a good player.

You keep deifying Mirza's playoff run. The guy played great vs Miami but sucked to the tune of 40.8% FG and 25% 3pt vs Toronto. He was also getting smoked by the likes of Patrick Patterson in that series.

I compared Plumlee to Chandler on offense by the way. So dont putting words in my mouth. If you watched the SL you will see Plumlee has added a def array of moves inside. You can say we are throwing him into the fire but I think it's more about rewarding his production. As I listed above, Plumlee outproduced Mirza in just about every facet of the game besides 3 point shooting.

[Keith Van Horn]

If Brook is starting then I think it has to be Plumlee. KG and Teletovic play better to each other's strengths.

[Paradise]

Like I've stated before. The frontcourt position in the East is getting bigger.

CHI: Gasol/Noah/Gibson

CLE: Thompson/Verajao/Haywood

IND: West/Hibbert/Scola

WSH: Nene/Gortat/Humphries

TOR: Johnson/Valencinuas/Nugueria

MIA: Bosh/Anderson/McRob

CHA: Zeller/Jefferson

ATL: Millsap/Horford/Payne

Alot of these teams will have bigs that are an inside post presence or rebounding presence.

Even if Mason and Brook aren't terrific rebounders, size still matters. We will flat out get killed if Mirza's shot is off. He will not be able to contain a Gasol, Bosh or any big that can use their size and strength on him.

Starting Mason at PF is starting to look like a better idea. If Brook played the majority of 2013 next to Reggie Evans, I don't see why he can't fit next to Plumlee who is a much better finisher than Reggie Evans and a better foul shooter. Plumlee also got to the line alot last season where as Mirza still hasn't developed a steady diet of outside shooting/free throw rate. Add Anderson in the starting lineup to spread the floor and I'm taking my chances with the Plumlee/Lopez combo.

[Prokorov]

Like I've stated before. The frontcourt position in the East is getting bigger.

CHI: Gasol/Noah/Gibson

CLE: Thompson/Verajao/Haywood

IND: West/Hibbert/Scola

WSH: Nene/Gortat/Humphries

TOR: Johnson/Valencinuas/Nugueria

MIA: Bosh/Anderson/McRob

CHA: Zeller/Jefferson

ATL: Millsap/Horford/Payne

Alot of these teams will have bigs that are an inside post presence or rebounding presence.

Even if Mason and Brook aren't terrific rebounders, size still matters. We will flat out get killed if Mirza's shot is off. He will not be able to contain a Gasol, Bosh or any big that can use their size and strength on him.

Starting Mason at PF is starting to look like a better idea. If Brook played the majority of 2013 next to Reggie Evans, I don't see why he can't fit next to Plumlee who is a much better finisher than Reggie Evans and a better foul shooter. Plumlee also got to the line alot last season where as Mirza still hasn't developed a steady diet of outside shooting/free throw rate. Add Anderson in the starting lineup to spread the floor and I'm taking my chances with the Plumlee/Lopez combo.

the east going bigger for me is all the more reason to go smallball/stretch 4.

make them adjust to us instead of just trying to minimize their advantage