Projecting the Upcoming Season

[ecuhus1981]

I know we have the offseason thread, I really wanted to get an early idea of our thoughts on next season.

Vegas' opening line for our Win total is 37.5. Lots of folks think that's too low, but I actually think it's significantly higher than we'll reach, UNLESS we swing for the fences with a superstar trade.

As currently constituted, we look like a top 10 defense, and a bottom 5 offense in the league. That's a below average team. It would also echo our level of play from this past season, after the 7/11 era ended when we finished 11-15. Teams that were behind us in the standings have improved also, like Orlando thru development and Indiana thru trades and signings. Even if MIA doesn't make a superstar trade, you have to figure they're going to vault us too.

Sooo, why is Vegas so bullish on us? Why are pundits picking us to get back to the playoffs? I think it's because we are in the mix for our own superstar trade. We have the assets, and the lack of control of our own picks means we have no incentive to be terrible now. Or maybe, we just gel and come together as more than the sum of our parts.

So, what do you think? How good can we be as we are, and will it change in a significant way? Remember, there are only 1230 wins to go around every season. All teams dream big this time of year, but 7 Eastern Conference teams are not gonna make the playoffs. Unless we push in the chips, we will be on the outside looking in IMO.

[Stone]

Realistically 37 wins is probably a safe bet. It most likely won't be enough to get us into the Play in.

I haven't crunched the numbers but, wow I am kind of surprised to see us as a bottom five on the offensive end. But it is probably a fair assessment, I have asked myself where are the points going to come from?

Without getting hopes up too high this season. There is still a lot of "If's"....Ben Simmons being the first that comes to mind. Sean and Jacque added a new staff and that could be a difference maker. Ultimately it all falls on Jacques shoulders, will he make it through the season? My guess is yes, he will.

Can this new group gel? Can the twins rally the troops?

Will Claxton bring his game a step forward or backward? He is up for a new contract.

Will Day'ron make a leap? With no other bigs with true size he should get significant minutes.

Will Cam Thomas be more than an Anthony Morrow flash in the pan story.

Will Spencer complain after every call? I think we all know the answer to that one....

[3pt_chucker]

The Vegas projection is probably a couple games too low. This team lacks superstar talent but has multiple very good starter level players, who are at/near their peak age(i.e. 27-32). Given that the Nets will have 0 incentive to tank and will be playing hard af every night, that sets the bar at 35ish wins alone, in an Eastern conference that is not crazy stacked like the West.

Only reason I won't be more bullish about win projection is the coaching. JV has a lot to prove and may be a large reason why the team "underperforms".

This is a .500 team with bad coaching and would be a slightly better than that team if they had elite coaching. This team reminds me of a slightly worse Hawks team under coach Bud (Bud >>>> JV), that won a crazy amount of games in the regular season.

[vincecarter4pres]

I’m thinking 32-36 wins, I’ll take the under.

[Netaman]

I’m thinking 32-36 wins, I’ll take the under.

if they don't make a consolidation trade i'd agree. this team reminds me of 2009-2010. it's better but the make up is similar where if things dont click, they just dont have a guy who can win them games if bridges regresses at all from the unexpected instant improvement post-deadline.

we went into 09 hoping harris and lopez could be core pieces post-kidd. courtney lee was an interesting 24 year old 3 and d. we had high hopes for terrance williams (rookie), sean williams (2nd year), and cdr (2nd year). boone was still youngish. yi was still youngish.

i dont think this group is going to get that bad but it could. especially if the rotation is a mess like it was post-deadline when some guys dont even get in most games.

if they get herro i their odds of winning between 30-40 games go up greatly. if they dont i envision a lot of 4th quarters with with dfs/royce hustling in close losses where the nets just cant create enough offense to win.

[Rastas]

Only way they go under 37 is if JV gives Spencer the green light like he did post Trade.

[ChuckS]

if they get herro i their odds of winning between 30-40 games go up greatly. if they dont i envision a lot of 4th quarters with with dfs/royce hustling in close losses where the nets just cant create enough offense to win.

If we are struggling offensively in the fourth quarter, and JV is depending on Royce and DFS, as good as they are otherwise, for points, he won't last long.

It will most likely mean, as we suspect, that Mikal, Cam J, and Spencer, might not be enough, Ben and Nic aren't enough help, and Cam T has not improved.

It could also indicate that more than half of our new roster might be too much potential and too little performance, or that Marks couldn't find a scoring alternative to Herro, big or small, already on board, or in the marketplace..

[vincecarter4pres]

I’m thinking 32-36 wins, I’ll take the under.

if they don't make a consolidation trade i'd agree. this team reminds me of 2009-2010. it's better but the make up is similar where if things dont click, they just dont have a guy who can win them games if bridges regresses at all from the unexpected instant improvement post-deadline.

we went into 09 hoping harris and lopez could be core pieces post-kidd. courtney lee was an interesting 24 year old 3 and d. we had high hopes for terrance williams (rookie), sean williams (2nd year), and cdr (2nd year). boone was still youngish. yi was still youngish.

i dont think this group is going to get that bad but it could. especially if the rotation is a mess like it was post-deadline when some guys dont even get in most games.

if they get herro i their odds of winning between 30-40 games go up greatly. if they dont i envision a lot of 4th quarters with with dfs/royce hustling in close losses where the nets just cant create enough offense to win.

Yeah, and this team could be bad, like quite bad as well.

A couple injuries that cost key guys a month or two, guys underperforming, as you mention Royce and DFS overextending, we could wind up 27 wins bad.

I think people are really expecting too much out of Bridges, especially and specifically on a roster like this as well.

And drinking the Simmons Kool Aid also.

I’d love to be pleasantly surprised, but I have serious reservations about this year.

[Tha King]

If I recall, the team was around .500 after the trade last year and that was a team randomly put together mid-season that had one of the tougher schedules.

I am not expecting too much but I think play-in and .500ish regular season is possible. Generally speaking, depth, effort and defense go a long way in the regular season and this team should have that. You're talking about a team with 8 or so starting level players (starters, O'Neale, Walker, maybe Simmons) and that's not factoring any improvement from Cam Thomas (and Sharpe) or even Simmons.

Doing anything in the playoffs would be a different story as there's just not enough offensive creativity on this roster to do much of anything against the good/elite teams, but that's alright given the stage of rebuild. If the team can be competitive while Claxton, Bridges, etc. keep improving then that's a win as we move along the picks owed to the Rockets.

[ecuhus1981]

I'm glad to see the lively discussion, and measured optimism.

I have projected us at 32-50. That's not to say we're terrible or that I'm a bad fan. We are a muscle car without an ignition key. If we swing a trade for a true superstar, it could make a HUGE difference in our record, because we have all the right pieces to surround a star.

I personally think Bridges is going to make that star leap, but he still isn't enough of a playmaker on his own to lift our entire offense into the average range. He's more of a great #2 dude. We're gonna hang with a ton of teams, and just watch them pull away in crunch time because they have closers and we don't.

You might suggest to give more rope to guys like Cam Thomas, but he gets exposed on both ends whenever he's a consistent rotation guy. He can torch a team for 50 if he's a complete wildcard and hasn't played for 2 weeks. But when opposing teams are ready for him, when he's a regular fixture in the lineup, his effectiveness wanes.

IONO, let's hope for the best.

[Tha King]

I'm glad to see the lively discussion, and measured optimism.

I have projected us at 32-50. That's not to say we're terrible or that I'm a bad fan. We are a muscle car without an ignition key. If we swing a trade for a true superstar, it could make a HUGE difference in our record, because we have all the right pieces to surround a star.

I personally think Bridges is going to make that star leap, but he still isn't enough of a playmaker on his own to lift our entire offense into the average range. He's more of a great #2 dude. We're gonna hang with a ton of teams, and just watch them pull away in crunch time because they have closers and we don't.

You might suggest to give more rope to guys like Cam Thomas, but he gets exposed on both ends whenever he's a consistent rotation guy. He can torch a team for 50 if he's a complete wildcard and hasn't played for 2 weeks. But when opposing teams are ready for him, when he's a regular fixture in the lineup, his effectiveness wanes.

IONO, let's hope for the best.

All understandable.

I lean towards thinking the team will surprise and be around .500 because of depth and defense, which I think are two factors that usually translate well to regular season wins. The league is deeper now though so maybe that won't be enough.

[Papi_swav]

As of right now, I see as at around 35 wins. I think our ceiling is 43 wins which puts us right above a .500 team. We probably will be fighting for the last 2 spots of the play in seeds.

Regardless of wins and losses I think this will be a fun team to watch that will grind claw and fight every single night. We will be a defensive juggernaut and annoy alot of teams and punch some good teams in the mouth that sleeps on us. We have alot of guys that are trying to prove themselves to stay in the NBA and some guys playing for their next contract which should have some good results.

I much rather watch guys fight and play hard then to have some overpaid cry babies here that pouts every time they don't get their way. This year is a breathe of fresh air for me to be honest and I look forward towards the future.

[sashaturiaf]

I think the main reason for the optimism from Vegas on the win total is that we have absolutely zero incentive to lose games on purpose.

Having said that I don't feel great about the prospects this season. While I'm excited to see the development of Clax, Cam and Mikal, and don't anticipate Ben being as terrible as he was last season, we lack shooting and have done nothing to address our rebounding issues. I think 35 wins and not handing the Rockets a top 10 pick will be a satisfactory outcome.

[vincecarter4pres]

I just don’t see more than ten teams we’re better than on paper, and I’m including some expected fall offs.

[JoseRizal]

I don't have any worries when it comes to our defense. What concerns me is our offense.

Last season, we averaged 113.4 points per game in the RS. A big chunk came from KD's 29.7 & Kyrie's 27.1, that's a total of 56.8 points on 39.3 shot attempts.

When playoff time came, we massively declined to 92.5 points per game. Granted, playoffs are tougher, but the 20.9 gap is unmistakably large.

For context, the top 3 scorers who replaced our primaddona superstars are Bridges (26.1 ppg on 18.6 fga), Johnson (16.6 ppg on 12 fga) & Dinwiddie (16.5 ppg on 13.7 fga). That's a total of 59.2 points on a combined 44.3 shot attempts. That's around 2.4 more points on 5 more attempts. Add to the fact that most of those points were assisted ones, as opposed to isos on the former.

We also traded away our top 4 shooters' Joe (7.6 ppg on 5.9 fga & 42.6% 3pt on 20.6 mins.), Seth (9.2 ppg on 7.4 fga & 40.5% 3pt on 19.8 mins.), Patty (6.2 ppg on 5.2 fga & 36.6% 3pt on 14.2 mins.) & Yuta (5.6 ppg on 4 fga & 44.4% 3pt on 16 mins.) That's a total of 28.6 points on 22.5 attempts and 70.6 total minutes.

All in all, we need to add at least 26.2 points on 17.5 shot attempts between our new additions' DSJ, LWIV, Bazley, Trendon and our rooks, to at least be respectably in the middle of the pack. Otherwise, we're bound to be at the bottom 5.

Looking at the situation, it's either we give more playing time to Cam T or swing a trade for Herro. Both are weak defenders, but we have more than enough to cover their deficiencies.

[ecuhus1981]

I agree on your rationale, JR.

Instead of trading for Herro, who MIA is asking an extreme price and who isn't is good as Dinwiddie at the moment, I think we need to invest time in Cam Thomas.

Also, I know everyone has take them to death, but it bears repeating. We could really use the infusion of offense from signing Christian Wood and Kelly Oubre. Maybe they've priced themselves out of the market and are still holding out for a big S&T offer, I don't think anyone has the money or interest to splash for either. Most teams viewed them as offense only mercenaries, and chose 2way options instead. But here, they could give us the shot making juice we need. I don't think either would cost much, but we would need to cut Watford and Bazley to make roster space, if we don't make a consolidation trade.

[TheNetsFan]

I just don’t see more than ten teams we’re better than on paper, and I’m including some expected fall offs.

The 11th worst team had a 40-42 record last season and finished as a 9th seed (won first play-in game). About 28 games will be played against the 10 worst teams. Teams typically have a good record against the league's worst & then need to win about one third of the games against the top 20 teams in the league to make the play-in.

Are we better than 5 teams in the East? If the answer is yes, then we're at least a play-in team. Washington, Detroit & Charlotte should still be very bad. Can we stay better than at least 2 of Chicago, Orlando, Atlanta, Toronto, Indiana? Probably. If so, we're a play-in team. Chicago & Toronto have high priced pending FAs. If things start off poorly, they would be likely sellers.

[vincecarter4pres]

Instead of trading for Herro, who MIA is asking an extreme price and who isn't is good as Dinwiddie at the moment

Idk about all this.

[vincecarter4pres]

I just don’t see more than ten teams we’re better than on paper, and I’m including some expected fall offs.

The 11th worst team had a 40-42 record last season and finished as a 9th seed (won first play-in game). About 28 games will be played against the 10 worst teams. Teams typically have a good record against the league's worst & then need to win about one third of the games against the top 20 teams in the league to make the play-in.

Are we better than 5 teams in the East? If the answer is yes, then we're at least a play-in team. Washington, Detroit & Charlotte should still be very bad. Can we stay better than at least 2 of Chicago, Orlando, Atlanta, Toronto, Indiana? Probably. If so, we're a play-in team. Chicago & Toronto have high priced pending FAs. If things start off poorly, they would be likely sellers.

Detroit and Washington are the only teams in the East we’re clearly better than.

10 teams is definitely stretching it on paper and includes expecting a falloff from teams like Chicago and Toronto, who we’re at best an equal to, talent-wise, and young weird teams like Orlando and the possibility Philly loses Harden for scraps and Embiid goes one man band and misses a ton of games to injury.

Atlanta and Indiana are vastly superior to us on paper and in functionality, barring a rash of injuries.

Most years there aren’t so few really bad teams record-wise.

We should certainly be in the mix for the play-in, but to me it’s still a lot more probable we win 31 games instead of 41, or 29 instead of 39.

[Netaman]

Instead of trading for Herro, who MIA is asking an extreme price and who isn't is good as Dinwiddie at the moment, I think we need to invest time in Cam Thomas.

where has anyone credible reported that miami is asking an extreme price for herro?

also herro is about 6 years younger and a vastly superior shooter to dinwiddie, so while while i dont think it's unreasonable to say they are comparable as players, herro's basketball value is clearly higher (which is why his salary is higher).

if dinwiddie is likely worth 1 protected FRP as an expiring, why isnt 1-2 protect FRPs for a younger player with an extremely bankable skill reasonable?