Projecting the Upcoming Season

[ecuhus1981]

Instead of trading for Herro, who MIA is asking an extreme price and who isn't is good as Dinwiddie at the moment, I think we need to invest time in Cam Thomas.

where has anyone credible reported that miami is asking an extreme price for herro?

also herro is about 6 years younger and a vastly superior shooter to dinwiddie, so while while i dont think it's unreasonable to say they are comparable as players, herro's basketball value is clearly higher (which is why his salary is higher).

if dinwiddie is likely worth 1 protected FRP as an expiring, why isnt 1-2 protect FRPs for a younger player with an extremely bankable skill reasonable?

You've made several points. Let me attempt to address them.

The widespread "sources say" word is that Miami expects a 3rd team to take Herro as part of the Damedeal, and give Portland expirings and 2 future 1sts. That's an extreme price, no one values him that way right now other than Miami. Portland flatly refuses to accept Herro in a Lillard trade, partly because they have too many young guards already, but also partly because Miami assigns extreme value to him.

Tyler is an intriguing young guard. He got a big extension navy's his upside is major. He is probably better than Spencer in 2026. But right now, Dinwiddie is far better on the court. What they're "worth" differs when you speak about them as a player, versus as an asset.

Honestly, if Miami was gauging Herro's value around the league, he'd garner offers similar to Jordan Poole. Another young guard who got PAID off of scintillating performances in a limited role, and who now looks exposed and overpaid. You get Chris Paul for that, an old, injured but effective expiring contract, not an extreme price.

[Netaman]

Instead of trading for Herro, who MIA is asking an extreme price and who isn't is good as Dinwiddie at the moment, I think we need to invest time in Cam Thomas.

where has anyone credible reported that miami is asking an extreme price for herro?

also herro is about 6 years younger and a vastly superior shooter to dinwiddie, so while while i dont think it's unreasonable to say they are comparable as players, herro's basketball value is clearly higher (which is why his salary is higher).

if dinwiddie is likely worth 1 protected FRP as an expiring, why isnt 1-2 protect FRPs for a younger player with an extremely bankable skill reasonable?

You've made several points. Let me attempt to address them.

The widespread "sources say" word is that Miami expects a 3rd team to take Herro as part of the Damedeal, and give Portland expirings and 2 future 1sts. That's an extreme price, no one values him that way right now other than Miami. Portland flatly refuses to accept Herro in a Lillard trade, partly because they have too many young guards already, but also partly because Miami assigns extreme value to him.

Tyler is an intriguing young guard. He got a big extension navy's his upside is major. He is probably better than Spencer in 2026. But right now, Dinwiddie is far better on the court. What they're "worth" differs when you speak about them as a player, versus as an asset.

Honestly, if Miami was gauging Herro's value around the league, he'd garner offers similar to Jordan Poole. Another young guard who got PAID off of scintillating performances in a limited role, and who now looks exposed and overpaid. You get Chris Paul for that, an old, injured but effective expiring contract, not an extreme price.

From Shams today:

Where things stand with Damian Lillard: As The Athletic reported last week, there still is no traction from the Portland Trail Blazers on a Lillard trade, and the All-NBA star’s mindset is steadfast toward desiring a trade only to the Miami Heat. Ever since early July, sources involved in discussions who are unauthorized to speak on the matter said the Heat have been prepared to offer the Trail Blazers a package including three to four first-round picks — with Tyler Herro going to a third team for assets — expiring contracts, a young player such as Nikola Jović and potentially second-round picks and draft swaps.

is there any credible report you can point to of miami looking for 2 firsts for herro?

and to the point about dinwiddie, it's very debateable whether he's the better player today let alone in 2026. post deadline he shot 40% from the field and 29% from 3. he's a career 33% shooter from 3. his efficiency went up in dallas because he was playing off Luka but he's still only averaged 20ppg in 1 season - his last healthy one as a net when he shot 41% and 31% from 3. if he has to be the primary ball handler that's what he's going to do.

herro has averaged 20 ppg the last 2 years on 44% field, 38.5% from 3. butler and bam are good players but neither is luka. if the nets get herro he's only barely behind what bridges did as a volume scorer post-deadline (47% field, 38% 3) and gives them a decent 1-2 punch (1-2-3 with cam j) for the next 3+ seasons. for a weaker future FRP or some other "non-extreme" price a good gamble for this nets group. after dealing as many shooters as they have this offseason adding one of the best young volume shooter/scorers would make this group better - including dinwiddie who could play in more of a 6th man/supporting role.

[JoseRizal]

Sharing this article here, guys.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/ranking-all-56-traded-future-nba-first-round-picks-kevin-durant-kyrie-irving-trades-shake-up-list/

This somewhat gives us an idea on the value of the picks at our disposal, which is what I also think guides our FO in prospective trade discussions.

[ecuhus1981]

Sharing this article here, guys.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/ranking-all-56-traded-future-nba-first-round-picks-kevin-durant-kyrie-irving-trades-shake-up-list/

This somewhat gives us an idea on the value of the picks at our disposal, which is what I also think guides our FO in prospective trade discussions.

Yes, I was thinking of where to link that article as well!

We have some juicy future assets, and our current crop of youngsters is not bad. I wouldn't mind moving some of our 1sts for a true difference maker, but those 2029 1sts may need to stay here.

[JoseRizal]

Sharing this article here, guys.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/ranking-all-56-traded-future-nba-first-round-picks-kevin-durant-kyrie-irving-trades-shake-up-list/

This somewhat gives us an idea on the value of the picks at our disposal, which is what I also think guides our FO in prospective trade discussions.

Yes, I was thinking of where to link that article as well!

We have some juicy future assets, and our current crop of youngsters is not bad. I wouldn't mind moving some of our 1sts for a true difference maker, but those 2029 1sts may need to stay here.

Yup! The 2029 should definitely stay.

[vincecarter4pres]

I’m a Dinwiddie fan and believe he’s perpetually underrated, and yes they compare as players, but to say he’s distinctly better than Herro seems like a big stretch. I’d make the argument for the opposite even if it’s currently quite close.

[ecuhus1981]

Check their advanced stats on NBA.com, 82games, CraftedNBA, Basketball Reference or anywhere. Dinwiddie is a better and more effective player on both ends right now. This is not a debate.

[Papi_swav]

I'm glad to see the lively discussion, and measured optimism.

I have projected us at 32-50. That's not to say we're terrible or that I'm a bad fan. We are a muscle car without an ignition key. If we swing a trade for a true superstar, it could make a HUGE difference in our record, because we have all the right pieces to surround a star.

I personally think Bridges is going to make that star leap, but he still isn't enough of a playmaker on his own to lift our entire offense into the average range. He's more of a great #2 dude. We're gonna hang with a ton of teams, and just watch them pull away in crunch time because they have closers and we don't.

You might suggest to give more rope to guys like Cam Thomas, but he gets exposed on both ends whenever he's a consistent rotation guy. He can torch a team for 50 if he's a complete wildcard and hasn't played for 2 weeks. But when opposing teams are ready for him, when he's a regular fixture in the lineup, his effectiveness wanes.

IONO, let's hope for the best.

you hit this one on the head lol good job my friend

[vincecarter4pres]

I'm glad to see the lively discussion, and measured optimism.

I have projected us at 32-50. That's not to say we're terrible or that I'm a bad fan. We are a muscle car without an ignition key. If we swing a trade for a true superstar, it could make a HUGE difference in our record, because we have all the right pieces to surround a star.

I personally think Bridges is going to make that star leap, but he still isn't enough of a playmaker on his own to lift our entire offense into the average range. He's more of a great #2 dude. We're gonna hang with a ton of teams, and just watch them pull away in crunch time because they have closers and we don't.

You might suggest to give more rope to guys like Cam Thomas, but he gets exposed on both ends whenever he's a consistent rotation guy. He can torch a team for 50 if he's a complete wildcard and hasn't played for 2 weeks. But when opposing teams are ready for him, when he's a regular fixture in the lineup, his effectiveness wanes.

IONO, let's hope for the best.

you hit this one on the head lol good job my friend

I’m a little sad how accurate I was.
What an abortion of a season.

[Papi_swav]

I'm glad to see the lively discussion, and measured optimism.

I have projected us at 32-50. That's not to say we're terrible or that I'm a bad fan. We are a muscle car without an ignition key. If we swing a trade for a true superstar, it could make a HUGE difference in our record, because we have all the right pieces to surround a star.

I personally think Bridges is going to make that star leap, but he still isn't enough of a playmaker on his own to lift our entire offense into the average range. He's more of a great #2 dude. We're gonna hang with a ton of teams, and just watch them pull away in crunch time because they have closers and we don't.

You might suggest to give more rope to guys like Cam Thomas, but he gets exposed on both ends whenever he's a consistent rotation guy. He can torch a team for 50 if he's a complete wildcard and hasn't played for 2 weeks. But when opposing teams are ready for him, when he's a regular fixture in the lineup, his effectiveness wanes.

IONO, let's hope for the best.

you hit this one on the head lol good job my friend

I’m a little sad how accurate I was.
What an abortion of a season.

yea same, I had them at 35 wins but at least we were real with our projections and knew what we was walking into. Glad this year is over with tho, we're closer to getting rid of the stench of Ben Simmons

[Netaman]

I’m thinking 32-36 wins, I’ll take the under.

if they don't make a consolidation trade i'd agree. this team reminds me of 2009-2010. it's better but the make up is similar where if things dont click, they just dont have a guy who can win them games if bridges regresses at all from the unexpected instant improvement post-deadline.

we went into 09 hoping harris and lopez could be core pieces post-kidd. courtney lee was an interesting 24 year old 3 and d. we had high hopes for terrance williams (rookie), sean williams (2nd year), and cdr (2nd year). boone was still youngish. yi was still youngish.

i dont think this group is going to get that bad but it could. especially if the rotation is a mess like it was post-deadline when some guys dont even get in most games.

if they get herro i their odds of winning between 30-40 games go up greatly. if they dont i envision a lot of 4th quarters with with dfs/royce hustling in close losses where the nets just cant create enough offense to win.

@vc one of those times i wish we were wronger

[Netaman]

Check their advanced stats on NBA.com, 82games, CraftedNBA, Basketball Reference or anywhere. Dinwiddie is a better and more effective player on both ends right now. This is not a debate.

this one didnt age well. what's funny is when nets played LAL a few weeks ago dinwiddie got a lot of press for "setting the record straight" on why brooklyn ruined his game, but then I checked his numbers and he's been just as bad in LA at like, everything.

bkln fg% .391
lal fg% .394

bkln TO per 36 = 1.5
LAL TO per 36 = 1.5

bkln points per 36 = 14.8
lal points per 36 = 10.0

bklyn reb per 36 = 3.9
lal reb per 36 = 2.4

bklyn assts per 36 = 7.0
lal assts per 36 = 3.6

minutes arent even that far off (30.7 per game brooklyn, 24.6 per game LAL). his usage went down but whose usage wouldn't go down playing that bad? i dont know why and didnt expect dinwiddie to go off a cliff this year but it seems he did. crazy they were talking extension less than a year ago, im not sure he will get more than the minimum in the summer.

[ChuckS]

Check their advanced stats on NBA.com, 82games, CraftedNBA, Basketball Reference or anywhere. Dinwiddie is a better and more effective player on both ends right now. This is not a debate.

this one didnt age well. what's funny is when nets played LAL a few weeks ago dinwiddie got a lot of press for "setting the record straight" on why brooklyn ruined his game, but then I checked his numbers and he's been just as bad in LA at like, everything.

bkln fg% .391
lal fg% .394

bkln TO per 36 = 1.5
LAL TO per 36 = 1.5

bkln points per 36 = 14.8
lal points per 36 = 10.0

bklyn reb per 36 = 3.9
lal reb per 36 = 2.4

bklyn assts per 36 = 7.0
lal assts per 36 = 3.6

minutes arent even that far off (30.7 per game brooklyn, 24.6 per game LAL). his usage went down but whose usage wouldn't go down playing that bad? i dont know why and didnt expect dinwiddie to go off a cliff this year but it seems he did. crazy they were talking extension less than a year ago, im not sure he will get more than the minimum in the summer.

I believe what you wrote is correct, particularly when it comes to what he will be offered upon re-signing because of his numbers this year. I personally do not use per 36 when evaluating, because I feel actual numbers are at least fact not estimation. But I understand the use by many. Other than that, I think the only oversight is the fact that his 3pt% is 38.6 with LA to 32 with us. I also think the assist numbers are misleading, with LeBron averaging 8.2, D'lo 6.4, Reaves 5.5, and Spence coming off the bench with limited point guard play. Add Rui to those other four scorers and it was also apparent up front that Dinwiddie would shoot substantially less. He's only averaging 6.8 PPG, but that is only 2.1 behind Prince and 0.1 behind Wood among the sixteen subs they have played this year. So that certainly has not hurt them.

I cannot explain the positives, so I will merely state them. The most perplexing for a guy taking five shots per game is that "82 games.com" (last updated 4/8) has him with the highest on-court number, +7.9, and second to LeBron for on/off court, plus 8.8 to 9.8. They also list the team's 20 most used lineups. He is in the seventh, replacing Russell, which has the best offensive rating, 1.43, and the second best +- to the starting lineup. Since D'lo is the much better scorer, this too is hard to explain.

The locals have been universally accepting of Spence and most note his defense. The absence of Vanderbilt seriously hurt that part of their game. Jarred was in the lineup having the best defensive rating, 0.94.

With guys like James and Davis, I cannot attribute the next thing to Spence. But the Lakers were 29 and 26 before his arrival, a 53% winning average, and have been 18 and 7 since, 72%.

To summarize, Spencer's numbers do not seem to have hurt them.

[Netaman]

I believe what you wrote is correct, particularly when it comes to what he will be offered upon re-signing because of his numbers this year. I personally do not use per 36 when evaluating, because I feel actual numbers are at least fact not estimation. But I understand the use by many. Other than that, I think the only oversight is the fact that his 3pt% is 38.6 with LA to 32 with us. I also think the assist numbers are misleading, with LeBron averaging 8.2, D'lo 6.4, Reaves 5.5, and Spence coming off the bench with limited point guard play. Add Rui to those other four scorers and it was also apparent up front that Dinwiddie would shoot substantially less. He's only averaging 6.8 PPG, but that is only 2.1 behind Prince and 0.1 behind Wood among the sixteen subs they have played this year. So that certainly has not hurt them.

I cannot explain the positives, so I will merely state them. The most perplexing for a guy taking five shots per game is that "82 games.com" (last updated 4/8) has him with the highest on-court number, +7.9, and second to LeBron for on/off court, plus 8.8 to 9.8. They also list the team's 20 most used lineups. He is in the seventh, replacing Russell, which has the best offensive rating, 1.43, and the second best +- to the starting lineup. Since D'lo is the much better scorer, this too is hard to explain.

The locals have been universally accepting of Spence and most note his defense. The absence of Vanderbilt seriously hurt that part of their game. Jarred was in the lineup having the best defensive rating, 0.94.

With guys like James and Davis, I cannot attribute the next thing to Spence. But the Lakers were 29 and 26 before his arrival, a 53% winning average, and have been 18 and 7 since, 72%.

To summarize, Spencer's numbers do not seem to have hurt them.

yeah i have no commentary on the team impact it could be he's doing things that show up outside of the stats.

im also not a huge fan of per36's but its a good way to compare 2 different stat lines when playing different minutes.

the 3 point percentage is up but his attempts are down so i dont find it to be any more impactful than it already is (baked into overall FG%) than say that his 2 pt% is down from 48% in brooklyn to 40% in LA (also baked into overall FG%). in 27 games he's hit 34 3's, so just over 1 per game. if someone's volume gets cut almost in half and shot difficult goes down i would hope all the % go way up, and so far he's shot the same overall.