Pick a direction: Where do you see (or want to see) the Nets go, moving forward?

[haosmoove]

It must be such a coincidence that every team in contention now or have WON a chip in the last 24 years either drafted their best or second best player.

Right off the top of my head, bubbles Lakers didn't draft LBJ nor AD. So I decided to take a look back at the last 24 champions:

Def Not:
19-20 Lakers: LBJ & AD
03-04 Pistons: Billups, Ben, Rip all spent their first 3+ years on other teams

Arguable:
18-19: Kawhi & Lowry/Siakam: Is the up and coming 24yo Siakam really better than the prime Lowry? Doubtful
07-08: KG & PP/RayRay

This makes 3 or 4 years out of 24, it makes your premise inaccurate but that's not why I dislike your argument.
1. Championships in the last 24 years had been dominated by megastars like Duncan, LBJ (with Wade or Kyrie), Curry, Kobe, etc. Saying that majority of the championship teams draft their best or second best players is simply reiterating those are great players and they are in competent organizations that built around them.
2. Your argument has a bit of a survivorship bias. For every team that fit your criteria and won the chip, there are many more that didn't.

As another counter-argument, Below is a list of teams that currently meet your criteria:
Hawks: Trae
Celtics: Tatum/Brown
Nets: Claxton
Hornets: Melo
Bulls: Lavine (arguable but most would agree he's better than Vuc)
Cavs: Mobley or Garland
Mavs: Luka
Nuggets: Jokic/Murray
Pistons: Cade
Warriors: Curry
Rockets: Sengun
Pacers: Turner
Heat: Bam
Grizzlies: Morant/JJJ/Bane
Bucks: Giannis
Wolves: Ant/Towns
Pelicans: Zion/Ingram
Thunders: SGA/Chet
Magic: Wagner/Banchero
76ers: Embiid/Maxey
Suns: Booker
Blazers: Simons (I don't think one can argue he's worse than both Grant and Ayton)
Kings: Fox
Spurs: Wemby
Raptors: Barnes

That's 25 out of 30 teams having at least one of their top 2 players via draft! Teams that drafted stars simply try to hold on to them for as long as they can. So obviously chances are much higher that one of those 25 teams will win the chip. Like history suggests, 20 or 21 of the last 24 champions meet this criteria.

The 5 teams that don't meet the criteria is a mix of good and bad teams:
Clippers
Lakers
Knicks
Jazz
Wizards

[therealbig3]

Other than the Mikan days, the Lakers have never won with both of their top 2 players being home grown talents. They have ALWAYS poached other teams’ stars to win championships.

70s - Wilt
80s - Magic forced his way there via draft, and Kareem
00s - Kobe forced his way there via draft, and Shaq
09/10 - Kobe and Gasol
20 - LeBron and Davis

[babyjax13]

It must be such a coincidence that every team in contention now or have WON a chip in the last 24 years either drafted their best or second best player.

Right off the top of my head, bubbles Lakers didn't draft LBJ nor AD. So I decided to take a look back at the last 24 champions:

Def Not:
19-20 Lakers: LBJ & AD
03-04 Pistons: Billups, Ben, Rip all spent their first 3+ years on other teams

Arguable:
18-19: Kawhi & Lowry/Siakam: Is the up and coming 24yo Siakam really better than the prime Lowry? Doubtful
07-08: KG & PP/RayRay

This makes 3 or 4 years out of 24, it makes your premise inaccurate but that's not why I dislike your argument.
1. Championships in the last 24 years had been dominated by megastars like Duncan, LBJ (with Wade or Kyrie), Curry, Kobe, etc. Saying that majority of the championship teams draft their best or second best players is simply reiterating those are great players and they are in competent organizations that built around them.
2. Your argument has a bit of a survivorship bias. For every team that fit your criteria and won the chip, there are many more that didn't.

As another counter-argument, Below is a list of teams that currently meet your criteria:
Hawks: Trae
Celtics: Tatum/Brown
Nets: Claxton
Hornets: Melo
Bulls: Lavine (arguable but most would agree he's better than Vuc)
Cavs: Mobley or Garland
Mavs: Luka
Nuggets: Jokic/Murray
Pistons: Cade
Warriors: Curry
Rockets: Sengun
Pacers: Turner
Heat: Bam
Grizzlies: Morant/JJJ/Bane
Bucks: Giannis
Wolves: Ant/Towns
Pelicans: Zion/Ingram
Thunders: SGA/Chet
Magic: Wagner/Banchero
76ers: Embiid/Maxey
Suns: Booker
Blazers: Simons (I don't think one can argue he's worse than both Grant and Ayton)
Kings: Fox
Spurs: Wemby
Raptors: Barnes

That's 25 out of 30 teams having at least one of their top 2 players via draft! Teams that drafted stars simply try to hold on to them for as long as they can. So obviously chances are much higher that one of those 25 teams will win the chip. Like history suggests, 20 or 21 of the last 24 champions meet this criteria.

The 5 teams that don't meet the criteria is a mix of good and bad teams:
Clippers
Lakers
Knicks
Jazz
Wizards

Minor point, Chicago didn't draft LaVine, he started his career in Minnesota.

[drchaos]

Getting both KD and Kyrie in free agency was a black swan event(that entire FA for the NBA was). Expecting/Hoping for that again seems like a horrible plan.

I was pleasantly surprised when we landed KD and Kyrie.

Considering the Nets history it was a huge win for us.

With that said I wonder what would have happened if Jimmy Butler came here instead.

Jimmy has been a two way player who excels at both offense and defense while not having many problems with injuries.

His leadership could have done wonders for this team.

Sure that would be great in theory but Jimmy is just not a KD guy. This was never an option.

Getting Jimmy wouldn't necessarily have involved getting KD.

At the start of the off-season getting Jimmy, Kyrie OR KD seemed like a pipe dream at best.

Maybe we just got Jimmy and could have made the Harden trade.

There are a lot of ways things could have gone differently if Jimmy came here.

[JKiddy]

I think everyone needs to chill the F out.

Imagine it like this. When you play a season of NBA2K and you know you will not win the title....

You likely simulate the end of the season and get into the play-in and maybe get the 7th or 8th seed of the real playoffs. You lose in the first round after taking 1 or 2 games and then go into the off season with a plethora of picks, several players who would like to be traded to or signed by BK, and you have a great GM who can rebuild quickly.

Let's see what happens over the next 6-12 months. IN MARKS WE TRUST.

[Cstarski]

It must be such a coincidence that every team in contention now or have WON a chip in the last 24 years either drafted their best or second best player.

Right off the top of my head, bubbles Lakers didn't draft LBJ nor AD. So I decided to take a look back at the last 24 champions:

Def Not:
19-20 Lakers: LBJ & AD
03-04 Pistons: Billups, Ben, Rip all spent their first 3+ years on other teams

Arguable:
18-19: Kawhi & Lowry/Siakam: Is the up and coming 24yo Siakam really better than the prime Lowry? Doubtful
07-08: KG & PP/RayRay

This makes 3 or 4 years out of 24, it makes your premise inaccurate but that's not why I dislike your argument.
1. Championships in the last 24 years had been dominated by megastars like Duncan, LBJ (with Wade or Kyrie), Curry, Kobe, etc. Saying that majority of the championship teams draft their best or second best players is simply reiterating those are great players and they are in competent organizations that built around them.
2. Your argument has a bit of a survivorship bias. For every team that fit your criteria and won the chip, there are many more that didn't.

As another counter-argument, Below is a list of teams that currently meet your criteria:
Hawks: Trae
Celtics: Tatum/Brown
Nets: Claxton
Hornets: Melo
Bulls: Lavine (arguable but most would agree he's better than Vuc)
Cavs: Mobley or Garland
Mavs: Luka
Nuggets: Jokic/Murray
Pistons: Cade
Warriors: Curry
Rockets: Sengun
Pacers: Turner
Heat: Bam
Grizzlies: Morant/JJJ/Bane
Bucks: Giannis
Wolves: Ant/Towns
Pelicans: Zion/Ingram
Thunders: SGA/Chet
Magic: Wagner/Banchero
76ers: Embiid/Maxey
Suns: Booker
Blazers: Simons (I don't think one can argue he's worse than both Grant and Ayton)
Kings: Fox
Spurs: Wemby
Raptors: Barnes

That's 25 out of 30 teams having at least one of their top 2 players via draft! Teams that drafted stars simply try to hold on to them for as long as they can. So obviously chances are much higher that one of those 25 teams will win the chip. Like history suggests, 20 or 21 of the last 24 champions meet this criteria.

The 5 teams that don't meet the criteria is a mix of good and bad teams:
Clippers
Lakers
Knicks
Jazz
Wizards

I unfortunately lost eveything I wrote so I’ll just tdlr it all lol. Valid points though.

1) 16% of champions fall into the category which we are aiming for, I think that number DOES NOT nullify my point, which has always been the method we continually go about would be the outlier. If I ever said all champions it was an obvious mistake.


2) Survivorship bias, well yes because if there wasn’t an aspect of survivorship bias that I would be implicitly stating that drafting has an 100% hit rate, which I never have.

3) Generational talent wins championships, I believe us getting that would probably be via the draft. That said I’m not advocating for a “tank until LeBron” method.

4) Most talent is now down via trading, I personally believe this is a secular trend and large FA signings are less likley going forward. That means the acquisition cost of getting talent not via the draft will most likely lead to assets out > assets in. That is, you’ll always trade more assets.

5) Building via the draft gives an unspoken buffer. Most organic building you have three options, champion/contender, draft talent that you can’t put all the way together (atl, Dallas, PHI) and three you continually draft busts. With option 2, which is the most likley (key phrase in option 3 was continually draft busts), you will see an appreciation in your one draft pick if you decide to trade (I.E the originally acquisition cost for a Tre/Luka/whomever is always just one pick versus what you can get if you decide this isn’t the path).

[Netaman]

this seems like something staring the franchise in the face:

Read on Twitter

we know camt has scoring ability, entering his extension year is there enough ability to roll those dice?

we all know the deal with ben. he's a big expiring that will expire and go no farther.

cam t, ben, picks for mitchell or trae. that's the start of a path forward.

[drchaos]

this seems like something staring the franchise in the face:

Read on Twitter

we know camt has scoring ability, entering his extension year is there enough ability to roll those dice?

we all know the deal with ben. he's a big expiring that will expire and go no farther.

cam t, ben, picks for mitchell or trae. that's the start of a path forward.

Cam T improved a lot this year. I would rather keep his cheap comtract and try to throw Cam Johnson into the deal if possible.

[Netaman]

this seems like something staring the franchise in the face:

Read on Twitter

we know camt has scoring ability, entering his extension year is there enough ability to roll those dice?

we all know the deal with ben. he's a big expiring that will expire and go no farther.

cam t, ben, picks for mitchell or trae. that's the start of a path forward.

Cam T improved a lot this year. I would rather keep his cheap comtract and try to throw Cam Johnson into the deal if possible.

the problem is his contract is only cheap for 1 more season. then he's going to get paid and quickly be an underwater asset just like rj barrett.

this summer is the last offseason to cash him in or risk losing him for nothing, i think id cash in. he definitely improved so i think he's a piece that has some value in a super star trade (with a lot of draft picks).

[drchaos]

It is way too early to pull the rip cord on Cam Thomas.

If he is not part of the future the time to trade him would be next year at the trade deadline.

He has been improving and will be a more valuable trade chip next year.

[vincecarter4pres]

It is way too early to pull the rip cord on Cam Thomas.

If he is not part of the future the time to trade him would be next year at the trade deadline.

He has been improving and will be a more valuable trade chip next year.

He’ll be an overpriced one dimensional chucker by year one of a new deal.

Sell now or by the deadline. But at the deadline there are so many factors that could lower his value, and only one that can raise or plateau it.

[Netaman]

It is way too early to pull the rip cord on Cam Thomas.

If he is not part of the future the time to trade him would be next year at the trade deadline.

He has been improving and will be a more valuable trade chip next year.

He’ll be an overpriced one dimensional chucker by year one of a new deal.

Sell now or by the deadline. But at the deadline there are so many factors that could lower his value, and only one that can raise or plateau it.

exactly. im pulling the ripcord whenever value seems good. if he's a desired piece in a star trade that offsets 1 fewer first (trae, mitchell) im doing that.

in 2 weeks doesnt schroder seem like he's a better player almost across the board? he gets easy baskets with his athleticism, can make tough shots in traffic, creates more for others, and hits shots outside at almost the same frequency as camt. more disruptive defensively. camt just doesnt do anything all that special unless he finds some way to be WAY more efficient. guys like schroder can be found in FA/trades pretty easily most years.