Okay, the REAL Lottery Odds

And100 · Post #1 » by **And100** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:38 am

Forgive me if this has been covered. i don't read all the posts but I have read what I think is lot of misinformation about what happens in the event the Knicks and Wolves tie and only seen a couple of accurate but incomplete misrepresentations.

This is who I understand he system works.

The Knicks cannot lose a coin flip with Minny and get the #2 position/odds. Meaning Minny would be guaranteed a top 4 pick and the Knicks could get the 5th. That isn't how it works.

The coin flip does two things and two things only which we'll get to in a minute (and call #1 and #2).

If they tie, the Knicks and Wolves will split their lotto balls for the draw for the first 3 picks (they only ones actually determined by the lottery draw). That means the Knicks and Wolves will each have the same number of lotto balls - 224 to be exact, with the 225th ball going to the team that wins the coin flip (#1).

The ONLY way the team that loses the coin flip finishes with the 5th pick is if they finish outside and top 3 AND the team they tied with ALSO finishes out of the top 3.

Then the coin flip winner would be awarded the 4th pick for having the worst record and the coin flip tiebreaker (#2) and the coin flip loser would be awarded the 5th pick, because starting with #4 it goes by record of the remaining 11 teams not in the top 3.

If Minny won a tie-breaker and finished in the top 3, then the Knicks would pick no lower than 4, because after 3 is becomes record and the Knicks would have the worst record.

So even if they tied with Minny and lost the coin flip, they aren't given the #2 odds. Their odds for landing in the 5th spot would be significantly lower than the standard 12.3% chance having 199 lotto balls give you, because they'd have 224.

Again, in practical terms, they only finish 5th if and ONLY if Minny winds up #4.

Greenie · Post #2 » by **Greenie** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:39 am

this has been covered

melomax · Post #3 » by **melomax** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:39 am

cant we just have 1 thread for all the lotto odds talk?

TrueWarrior · Post #4 » by **TrueWarrior** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:41 am

Bro we're winning the next two anyway this doesn't even thad matta

melomax · Post #5 » by **melomax** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:42 am

TrueWarrior wrote:Bro we're winning the next two anyway this doesn't even thad matta

Post #6 » by **kane2021** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:42 am

I pulled a melo and gave up half way through. That was a painful read.

Sent from my SGH-T999L using RealGM Forums mobile app

Post #7 » by **mpharris36** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:43 am

TrueWarrior wrote:Bro we're winning the next two anyway this doesn't even thad matta

with atlanta resting there guys tonight, i doubt we beat atlanta in there last home game with all there starters playing.

Worst_to_First · Post #8 » by **Worst_to_First** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:44 am

TrueWarrior wrote:Bro we're winning the next two anyway this doesn't even thad matta

In that case we will end up in a tie with Philly and will open up another world of discussion. :lol:

Post #9 » by **Thugger HBC** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:48 am

As if the other thread wasnt good enough, now we have two. Could have easily posted this in that one. matter of fact...please do.