Past, Present, & Future; Cracking The Henny Code

[Bensational]

I was talking about Henny when he played at Emerson college, where he won their conference POY 3 years in a row. I was saying that since he was such an efficient player when he played, he knows what an efficient player looks like.

just stop man...

the story is true (or, at least, i've read an article about it ages ago, so if it's on the internet...). and i think it's a valid point. all signs point to Hennigan looking to build an efficient team offense and team defense. AA, most efficient scorer in the league last year. Oladipo, most efficient scorer in college the year before. Nicholson was the most efficient scorer for the 2nd half of the year, the year before he was drafted, too.

[Orlwillbeback]

I was talking about Henny when he played at Emerson college, where he won their conference POY 3 years in a row. I was saying that since he was such an efficient player when he played, he knows what an efficient player looks like.

just stop man...

the story is true (or, at least, i've read an article about it ages ago, so if it's on the internet...). and i think it's a valid point. all signs point to Hennigan looking to build an efficient team offense and team defense. AA, most efficient scorer in the league last year. Oladipo, most efficient scorer in college the year before. Nicholson was the most efficient scorer for the 2nd half of the year, the year before he was drafted, too.

Saying hennigan wants to build an efficient team is not surprising and frankly an unoriginal thought, but saying he wants to because of how he played for emerson for crying out loud is kind of laughable.

[basketballRob]

Again, at no point did I really delve in to what he provides as a player. That wasn't the focus. I never said he wasn't worth X amount of dollars. If he proves that he is a max player...of course we do everything we can to keep him around. The main point of talking about him was to point out that IF we extend him, it will be a short term extension. He is likely to hit the open market and at that point we will be able to match anything. Still, it is going to be a short term deal. I think Harris could be in the plans for the next 3 years but beyond that point...it is going to be REALLY hard to keep him around. Even if we want to.

i actually said before that if he played enough to garner a high deal, why wouldnt we keep him, and you specifically said

Would you have paid Gordon Hayward the max? He's a "good player" but I don't see him being worth the max.
With as many good young assets as we have, it's going to be impossible to keep them all. In my mind, all signs point to Harris being the odd man out. It's not what I want..just what I expect.

so that sounds bit different then you now saying

If he proves that he is a max player...of course we do everything we can to keep him around.

There is a BIG difference between what I think is going to happen and what I would like to happen. I even said it in that quote you used. Note the bold type. I've said multiple times that our best shot is to lock him up for three years. I don't know why you are trying to pick things apart to deeply. It's pretty simple...
-Harris is a very talented young player.
-He has a high ceiling and has plenty of room to improve.
-With the new CBA looming, he is going to be looking for a max deal for 3 years with a player option in the 3rd.
-Our best shot is likely to let him hit the open market and just hope he doesn't get what he is looking for. Posture like we will match anything.
-Even if we do that, it is very unlikely that he is in the LONG term plans because after that 3 year deal...we are going to be over the cap and he will be an unrestricted free agent.

There is no flip flopping there...everything goes together quite nicely.

Can't see him getting the max, he's a 17.5 pt per 36 mpg guy. Players like Batum who get 11m and Taj Gibson who gets 8.5m are better all-round players in my opinion.

[LBPTarHeel27]

i actually said before that if he played enough to garner a high deal, why wouldnt we keep him, and you specifically said


so that sounds bit different then you now saying

There is a BIG difference between what I think is going to happen and what I would like to happen. I even said it in that quote you used. Note the bold type. I've said multiple times that our best shot is to lock him up for three years. I don't know why you are trying to pick things apart to deeply. It's pretty simple...
-Harris is a very talented young player.
-He has a high ceiling and has plenty of room to improve.
-With the new CBA looming, he is going to be looking for a max deal for 3 years with a player option in the 3rd.
-Our best shot is likely to let him hit the open market and just hope he doesn't get what he is looking for. Posture like we will match anything.
-Even if we do that, it is very unlikely that he is in the LONG term plans because after that 3 year deal...we are going to be over the cap and he will be an unrestricted free agent.

There is no flip flopping there...everything goes together quite nicely.

Can't see him getting the max, he's a 17.5 pt per 36 mpg guy. Players like Batum who get 11m and Taj Gibson who gets 8.5m are better all-round players in my opinion.

At this point, comparing any contract to those in previous years is becoming quickly irrelevant. Look at the deals that have been signed this off season. Guys that think they "can get theirs" are taking short term deals to prepare for the new CBA. From the greats like LeBron to the crazy (literally) good Stephenson and limited skill setted Parsons, short term deals are where players' minds at are right now.

In a slight contrast...players that are not max level players but just below are going to be signing max deals...ala Gordon Hayward. That is where Tobias is right now.

More teams will be willing to take the risk and offer more money. I would be willing to bet that Henny tries to offer him the 5 year max extension. Simply because that will be a bargain when the new CBA rolls out. (Assuming he continues to develop and doesn't regress this season). I think the 5-year tag eventually goes to Vuc but if he could lock Harris up with that, it would make more long term financial sense...I just don't think Harris goes for it.

The good news for Tobias Harris is that the absolute worst case scenario for him next summer (again, assuming he doesn't regress) is that he signs an offer sheet from another team for a 4 year max deal. We would immediately match it...because again, that would be a bargain.

Every GM knows that a long term max contract today is going to be a bargain tomorrow. Every player that has true reason to believe they will be a better player in 2-3 years will be opting for a short term deal.

The market is going to be very bizarre until the new CBA is active and even then it is going to take some getting used to. When we start seeing contracts for NON max contract players starting at over 20 million, it is going to take a lot of adjustment for many people on this board.

[Bensational]

Saying hennigan wants to build an efficient team is not surprising and frankly an unoriginal thought, but saying he wants to because of how he played for emerson for crying out loud is kind of laughable.

So Joe Dumars didn't want to build that Detroit team under the inspiration of the team he'd played for?

Or is it laughable to say Hennigan wants to build a team in the SAS/OKC model because he learned through their system?

It's really not a leap of faith that Hennigan has developed an appreciation for the model of team he's looking to build based on what he's experienced.

[basketballRob]

According to his college coach Hank Smith, Rob wasn't only the best offensive player but he was the best defensive player too. He said, it was amazing the way he went through screens.

Presti the OKC GM also played under Smith and both credit him into molding them into the men they' are today. Although they didn't play at the same time or know each other, Smith knew once Hennigan and Presti met they'd be good friends because they were the same.

Presti is credited with pushing SA to take Parker.

[tiderulz]

i actually said before that if he played enough to garner a high deal, why wouldnt we keep him, and you specifically said


so that sounds bit different then you now saying

There is a BIG difference between what I think is going to happen and what I would like to happen. I even said it in that quote you used. Note the bold type. I've said multiple times that our best shot is to lock him up for three years. I don't know why you are trying to pick things apart to deeply. It's pretty simple...
-Harris is a very talented young player.
-He has a high ceiling and has plenty of room to improve.
-With the new CBA looming, he is going to be looking for a max deal for 3 years with a player option in the 3rd.
-Our best shot is likely to let him hit the open market and just hope he doesn't get what he is looking for. Posture like we will match anything.
-Even if we do that, it is very unlikely that he is in the LONG term plans because after that 3 year deal...we are going to be over the cap and he will be an unrestricted free agent.

There is no flip flopping there...everything goes together quite nicely.

Can't see him getting the max, he's a 17.5 pt per 36 mpg guy. Players like Batum who get 11m and Taj Gibson who gets 8.5m are better all-round players in my opinion.

but then Parsons and Hayward got max. It easily could happen

[basketballRob]

I think he's going to start and have the opportunity to prove it this year.

[LBPTarHeel27]

I think he's going to start and have the opportunity to prove it this year.

The thing is...even if he doesn't really take a big leap and actually get to the point where he deserves a max deal...he is still going to get one. Like I've said, he is going to go for the short term deal if he does play well, ala Chandler Parsons. If he doesn't and stays around the same level...he is going to get a long term max deal ala Gordon Hayward.

I'm going to be reiterating this for a long time but the new CBA looming is going to change the way contracts are negotiated. We have seen that first hand with our Channing Frye signing. That contract seems like a lot today but by the time it is in the last two years, it is going to be a bargain or a great trade chip.

People are going to flip $h!t when they start seeing players getting contracts that ARE NOT the max and still start at around or over 20 million dollars.

Someone like a Chandler Parsons or Eric Bledsoe would be the type of player getting a deal starting around 18-20 million. That is why Parsons has opted for the short term deal. Bledsoe is looking for the 5 year extension for security due to his injury history.

[Orlwillbeback]

Saying hennigan wants to build an efficient team is not surprising and frankly an unoriginal thought, but saying he wants to because of how he played for emerson for crying out loud is kind of laughable.

So Joe Dumars didn't want to build that Detroit team under the inspiration of the team he'd played for?

Or is it laughable to say Hennigan wants to build a team in the SAS/OKC model because he learned through their system?

It's really not a leap of faith that Hennigan has developed an appreciation for the model of team he's looking to build based on what he's experienced.

if he's drawing from the spurs or okc model i can understand it but that's not what he said. He said he wants to build a team based on a vision he developed as a player for emerson. That's what i dont get.

And although Oladipo was one of the most efficient players in the nation when he was drafted, Gordon clearly was not.

[Optimus_Steel]

I remember The Davinci's code when I read this thread....

[MagicFan32]

I put D. Gordon ahead of Harris already as far as playing team ball, because he can defend and pass. Once Gordon adds strength, I see our best TEAM as, O'Quinn, Gordon, Harkless, Oladipo, and Payton.

I see Harris and Vuc getting plenty of minutes this year going into their contract year. Hopefully they're unselfish and put in great effort on defense. If our defense is in the high 20's around the trade deadline playing them big minutes, I could see Henny making a move.

well one thing is for sure, he'll be relying on the rest of the team to get him points

[basketballRob]

Saying hennigan wants to build an efficient team is not surprising and frankly an unoriginal thought, but saying he wants to because of how he played for emerson for crying out loud is kind of laughable.

So Joe Dumars didn't want to build that Detroit team under the inspiration of the team he'd played for?

Or is it laughable to say Hennigan wants to build a team in the SAS/OKC model because he learned through their system?

It's really not a leap of faith that Hennigan has developed an appreciation for the model of team he's looking to build based on what he's experienced.

if he's drawing from the spurs or okc model i can understand it but that's not what he said. He said he wants to build a team based on a vision he developed as a player for emerson. That's what i dont get.

And although Oladipo was one of the most efficient players in the nation when he was drafted, Gordon clearly was not.

I don't know what he was thinking with Gordon. He's efficient defensively and a good passer, but right now Vonleh looks like a better prospect.

[bajotierra]

I don't know what he was thinking with Gordon. He's efficient defensively and a good passer, but right now Vonleh looks like a better prospect.

Why do you say that? Vonleh averaged just 9pts over the summer league while shooting a horrible 28% FG. He showed he can rebound but nothing else imo. I know you shouldn't judge a player based on summer league but its all we have at the moment so I'm wondering what makes you say that.

We clearly took a good look at him and decided to pass. I wonder how close the decision between AG, Smart, Exum and Vonleh actually was during the draft process.

[basketballRob]

I don't know what he was thinking with Gordon. He's efficient defensively and a good passer, but right now Vonleh looks like a better prospect.

Why do you say that? Vonleh averaged just 9pts over the summer league while shooting a horrible 28% FG. He showed he can rebound but nothing else imo. I know you shouldn't judge a player based on summer league but its all we have at the moment so I'm wondering what makes you say that.

We clearly took a good look at him and decided to pass. I wonder how close the decision between AG, Smart, Exum and Vonleh actually was during the draft process.

Gordon may end up a Boris Diaw type player with better athleticism. 12 pts 7 reb 5 asts type player, I guess not too many players in the league get over 5 rebs and 5 asts and we have potentially 3 guys that can do it. Payton, Dipo, and Gordon.

[LBPTarHeel27]

I don't know what he was thinking with Gordon. He's efficient defensively and a good passer, but right now Vonleh looks like a better prospect.

Why do you say that? Vonleh averaged just 9pts over the summer league while shooting a horrible 28% FG. He showed he can rebound but nothing else imo. I know you shouldn't judge a player based on summer league but its all we have at the moment so I'm wondering what makes you say that.

We clearly took a good look at him and decided to pass. I wonder how close the decision between AG, Smart, Exum and Vonleh actually was during the draft process.

Gordon may end up a Boris Diaw type player with better athleticism. 12 pts 7 reb 5 asts type player, I guess not too many players in the league get over 5 rebs and 5 asts and we have potentially 3 guys that can do it. Payton, Dipo, and Gordon.

Interesting comparison. I think that is essentially Gordon's floor...a more athletic Diaw.

[basketballRob]

I would have packaged Harkless this summer to a GM that would "bite" the bait..
In 20+ years of watching basketball, IMO I have NEVER seen a player who plays without emotion like Harkless.
At times, he seems lost on the court...many of the games I experimented by just watching him move around
on offense....he does not...rather just stands around most all the time lurking in the corner.

Tired of seeing him put up 2 pts/2 reb games.

He's 20 years old! His numbers are better than Nicolas Batum's at the same age, check their per 36 numbers. If the Magic really want to grow slowly they would trade Harris near the trade deadline to a team that is close and desperate for a SF like the Clippers. They would probably give us 2 firsts and 2 seconds for him and we could sign Harkless at a deal that starts around 6 or 7 million.

If Payton and Oladipo develop, what are we going to have 4 max players with Vuc and Harris? Once we give Vuc and Harris near max money they'll be impossible to move or we could trade them near the deadline and stockpile maybe 8 draft picks for them. If we traded them we could still have Harkless and O'Quinn starting both at reasonable contracts with Dedmon and A Gordon backing them up. We would probably have a worse record next year and get a higher draft pick but that would buy us time while Founier, Harkless,Dipo, Payton, Gordon, Nicholson, Dedmon, and O'Quinn develop. Plus by the time Payton and Dipo get big contracts we could have all those draft picks to fill in the roster.

I think the Magic will try to win the first half of the season and see what these guys are capable of, but if they don't see a team that could eventually compete for a title, they make a move and try again in a couple of years.

[LBPTarHeel27]

I would have packaged Harkless this summer to a GM that would "bite" the bait..
In 20+ years of watching basketball, IMO I have NEVER seen a player who plays without emotion like Harkless.
At times, he seems lost on the court...many of the games I experimented by just watching him move around
on offense....he does not...rather just stands around most all the time lurking in the corner.

Tired of seeing him put up 2 pts/2 reb games.

He's 20 years old! His numbers are better than Nicolas Batum's at the same age, check their per 36 numbers. If the Magic really want to grow slowly they would trade Harris near the trade deadline to a team that is close and desperate for a SF like the Clippers. They would probably give us 2 firsts and 2 seconds for him and we could sign Harkless at a deal that starts around 6 or 7 million.

If Payton and Oladipo develop, what are we going to have 4 max players with Vuc and Harris? Once we give Vuc and Harris near max money they'll be impossible to move or we could trade them near the deadline and stockpile maybe 8 draft picks for them. If we traded them we could still have Harkless and O'Quinn starting both at reasonable contracts with Dedmon and A Gordon backing them up. We would probably have a worse record next year and get a higher draft pick but that would buy us time while Founier, Harkless,Dipo, Payton, Gordon, Nicholson, Dedmon, and O'Quinn develop. Plus by the time Payton and Dipo get big contracts we could have all those draft picks to fill in the roster.

I think the Magic will try to win the first half of the season and see what these guys are capable of, but if they don't see a team that could eventually compete for a title, they make a move and try again in a couple of years.

At the end of the season, we are going to know what Harris is worth. If he is going to take a leap towards truly being a max player, you would think it would occur this season. He will have had time to develop in the same system and with ample playing time. If he is worth it...we pay him.

Eventually we are going to have to start paying our guys. We just have to wait and see who earns it. I expect Vuc to get extended this summer. Harris will hit FA and we will likely end up matching a near max or even a full max 3 year deal (player option in year 3). Then next summer we will have to worry about Harkless and Fournier...it will be interesting to see what their value is next summer and if they are worth trying to extend.

I definitely think we push hard to win early in the year and if things start to develop...they will stay the course. If things are just as rough as last year, I think Henny could shake things up at the deadline.

[basketballRob]

The first half of the season will be interesting. I hope people keep an open mind about Harkless and O'Quinn.

Think about it, would you trade Harris at 13 million for Harkless who is younger at 6 million and 3 or 4 draft picks?

[LBPTarHeel27]

The first half of the season will be interesting. I hope people keep an open mind about Harkless and O'Quinn.

Think about it, would you trade Harris at 13 million for Harkless who is younger at 6 million and 3 or 4 draft picks?

Still, at the end of the day, it all comes down to what they are worth. If Harris is actually worth a max deal and we have our star player, we aren't going to opt to keep Harkless over him just because of extra assets.

Also, you are being very presumptuous in thinking that we could even acquire that many additional assets.