In the Beginning...
On the day he walked in to the Magic front office, he had a mess on his hands. While he was reported to have reached out to Dwight in an attempt to reconcile the differences...I don't think Hennigan really ever intended to have Dwight Howard in a Magic uniform under his reign. He wanted to start from scratch and build a franchise "the right way". He wanted to bring in gym rats that were dedicated to the game and being a team player. He wanted guys who had untapped potential but had a high motor and intangibles. Guys who will be a positive force off the court, as well as on the court. However, in order to do things the right way...it takes time. A lot of time and losing. It is tough as a fan to accept this but we are just going along for the ride and need to recognize that this is not a plan that is going to take full shape over the course of 3-4 years. It takes a long time.
So what did he do? He cleaned house and brought in young talent, a slew of picks, and a couple veteran leaders. We shed the long term commitments of Dwight Howard, Jason Richardson, Earl Clark, and Ryan Anderson and brought in Arron Afflalo; who quickly gained a reputation as a guy who was always looking to improve his game. A great influence on the young talent that would be coming in.
An Eye For Talent...
Early on, he displayed a great eye for talent deep in the draft by snagging Kyle O'Quinn with the 49th pick. He acquired Moe Harkless in the Dwight Trade. A raw, freakish athlete that has a defense first mentality but comes in to the league with a reputation of having a broken shot. While Nicholson hasn't been amazing, there really isn't anyone else that jumps out as better in the remainder of that weak 2012 draft (minus Fournier...who we now have as well). He traded JJ Redick, who would be looking for a long term deal, for Tobias Harris.
He has since gone on to draft the likes of Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, and Elfrid Payton in the first round. Hard working, freakish athletes that have a defense first mentality but comes in to the league with a reputation of having a broken shot. Sound familiar? Someone posted this article in another thread but it is very relevant to our current build....
http://www.nbadraftinsider.com/2010/05/ ... jon-rondo/
Just four years ago, Rajon Rondo fell all the way to the No. 21 pick in the 2006 NBA Draft, which by all accounts was one of the most painfully thin drafts in recent years in terms of talent.
If you’re like me, that realization leads to two immediate reactions:
1) What were NBA general managers thinking?
2) How in the world did it happen? How was Rondo drafted behind the likes of Shelden Williams, Patrick O’Bryant, Saer Sene, Hilton Armstrong, Cedric Simmons, Rodney Carney, Shawne Williams, Oleksiy Pecherov, Quincy Douby and Renaldo Balkman?
The answer: general managers were scared to pull the trigger on a point guard who came with the label “non-shooter.”
In his two years at Kentucky, Rondo displayed tremendous quickness and athleticism. He proved to be able to penetrate the lanes, get to the rim with ease and wear out a path to the charity stripe. But all the positives to his game were overshadowed by one thing – his inability to shoot.
Hennigan is clearly of the mind set that with hard working players that are dedicated to improving, the easiest thing that can be improved upon is shooting. Between Harkless, Oladipo, Gordon, and Payton, he has stockpiled assets that have a very high ceiling. While we wait on development, we have had guys like Arron Afflalo to help spread the floor. Now we have brought in Fournier to compliment Oladipo and Payton on the wing and Channing Frye to compliment O'Quinn and Vucevic down low.
His streak of solid second round picks continues as he was able to snag Romero Osby last season - a player we hope to see on our D-League roster this season. Then this year, he grabs Marble...a guy who looked great in summer league and has a great shot at being on that D-League roster as well. A team that will allow us to further develop our players on a deep level. It will be our systems and coaching staff teaching these guys down in the D-League, allowing them to be more ready to contribute.
In a quick amount of time, Henny has built a very strong culture of dedication, teamwork, and character. There is no denying that. He clearly has a vision when it comes to the people he wants as a part of this organization.
Nice Assets...
While some may doubt the moves he has made this offseason...whether it is the draft or free agent signings...no one can deny that we are in a fantastic spot in terms of our flexibility to make deals and add to our roster. In my mind, this summer marks the end of "phase 1" of Hennigan's plan. He has all of the building blocks in place. He turned a cap strangled roster in to something that can be molded any way he likes. Just look at the list of assets we have gained during his tenure thus far...
Players:
Victor Oladipo
Tobias Harris
Nikola Vucevic
Elfrid Payton
Aaron Gordon
Evan Fournier
Moe Harkless
Andrew Nicholson
Kyle O'Quinn
Picks:
LAL's 2015 2nd Round Pick
Chi/Por 2015 2nd Round Pick
Chi/Por 2016 2nd Round Pick
LAL's 2017 First Round Pick
Then the cap flexibility comes in to play.
Develop and Retain...
Another cornerstone of the Hennigan rebuild is the belief that we need to hold on to our guys and allow them to develop in a Magic uniform. We can talk about Chauncey Billups or Ben Wallace at length but we all know that they were late bloomers than never had a chance to develop in a Magic uniform. Hennigan does not want to allow those things to happen. However, we are approaching the stage where we have to begin extending these rookie contracts. This is why I say we are entering "phase 2" of Hennigan's long term plan. Keeping our guys around. The key is figuring out who to keep and what they are worth.
Big men are tough to come by and when you do find a good one, they are not cheap. With the contracts that have been handed out in recent years, we can be certain the Vuc is going to earn a big pay day. However, it is hard to judge what kind of contract to expect with the new CBA looming in 2016. A lot of players seem to be seeking short term deals that allow them to capitalize on the money down the road. That being said, I think it is a MUCH riskier route for a big man then a wing player like LeBron or Stpehenson. For a big man, I would think that a long term deal would be the best way to go. That is something that could work well for both sides. It would be wise for us to long Vuc up to a long term deal prior to the new CBA.
One detail of contract extensions that many might not be aware of is that each team has the ability to give one player on their roster a five year extension, instead of the typical 4 year extension. The question is whether or not it would be a good idea to use it in Vucevic? Personally, I think he is the best person to use it on from a cap maintenance perspective. We certainly cannot let Vuc get to the open market as a restricted free agent. There is no doubt in my mind that we would have to match a max offer for him.
Tobias Harris is also approaching extension time. With the amount of people we have at SF/PF...it will be interesting to see if we keep him around. Here is an article that was written before last year's early extension talk...
http://www.sbnation.com/2013/8/1/456012 ... aul-george
Of the seven players from the class of 2009 who received early extensions, only No. 1 pick Blake Griffin signed during the summer. The rest went right up to the Oct. 31 deadline.
Then you can take a look at the extensions that were reached in the summer of '13...
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1820 ... -offseason
Two to take note of are DeMarcus Cousins and Derrick Favors. This is what we should be expecting for Vuc, somewhere in the middle. As scary as that sounds to people...we have to face facts. Big men get paid. Like I said before, if we let him get to the open market...he WILL get a max offer sheet.
With a new CBA looming in 2016, these past examples may not be as relevant. A player like Harris is more likely to want a shorter term deal, especially considering his room for growth. You could certainly argue that Harris has much more room to grow than Vucevic does. In two years, Harris will likely be hitting his peak (in terms of his value on the open market) and that happens to coincide with the new CBA. I think extension talks with Harris will be very tough with Hennigan pushing for four years and Harris wanting two.
In the end, I think we lock up Vuc to a 5yr/65 Million dollar extension - starting at around 12 Million per. I really don't know what to think of the Harris situation. He will want to be a free agent in 2016...there is no doubt in my mind about that. If he hits the open market...he would be looking for a two year deal with a player option in the second year. If we were to extend him, it would only be for 1 year...but then he could walk away on his own. It is going to make sense for both sides to let Harris hit the open market. Regardless of how he plays this season. This leads me believe that if any of our young guys are going to be traded...it is going to be Harris. It is going to be VERY tough to keep Harris in our long term plans and it would be wise to try and capitalize on his trade value.
Kyle O'Quinn will be last on Hennigan's agenda. KOQ is another iffy situation in the sense that big men DO get paid on the open market...but he really hasn't had that big of a chance to show what he can really contribute. That won't change this season with Frye coming to town and Dedmon making some nice offseason strides. There will be minutes for him, but his role won't be evolving in to anything bigger with us this season. For that reason, I think that he also gets to the open market but is much more likely to return on a new deal. Hard to say for how long or how much though.
Down the Road...
So at this point, we let's assume we have Vucevic locked up for the foreseeable future and Harris is gone (I'm not going to speculate what we could trade him for). We bring back O'Quinn on a two year deal, player option on the 2nd year; something similar to DeJuan Blair minus 1 year.
The next big milestone during this timeline would be the trade deadline of 2014-2015. Over the years, everyone seems to hype this up and make it seem like it is the best time to make moves. Then we all get severely disappointed when no moves are really made. We won't know what will happen but the names that make sense to be on the move are: Tobias Harris, Andrew Nicholson, Ben Gordon, Luke Ridnour, and Willie Green. That, in itself, contains two young talents; one of which has shown great signs of a future in the league + three expiring contracts. You toss a pick in to that equation and that is a very nice package to offer. Who knows what it could fetch but it is a package that would not alter the direction of the build. Both contenders and re-builders would be interested.
We then head towards the summer of 2015. I think this will be the most unique off season in NBA history. With the new CBA just a summer away and a huge spike in the cap expected, we may see an unusual amount of two year deals with player options in the second year. The usual big spenders in FA may actually be at a disadvantage. They are less likely to commit to those kinds of deals and the smaller market teams will have an opportunity to swoop in and offer these players exactly what they are looking for...an out in the summer of 2016.
Thankfully, on our end...there isn't much to worry about in the summer of 2015. Harris is unlikely to be in the plans, Vuc is locked up long term, and O'Quinn would likely be the only one to deal with, in terms of free agency.
While we would not have much to do on the home front, I do think that Henny tries to sift through the free agents and find guys that he can lock up to longer term deals. Much like with Frye, any long term deals completed in the next two summers are going to soon become big time bargains when the spike in the cap takes place. Again, I am not going to speculate on who we may grab...but I think that will be how he approaches the offseason. That along with grabbing a couple more vets that are expendable, ala Ben Gordon, Luke Ridnour, and Willie Green.
That summer will also be stress free in the sense that there really isn't anyone we will need to worry about locking up with an extension. The only players up for early extensions will be Evan Fournier, Andrew Nicholson, and Moe Harkless. Nicholson is an afterthought if he is even still around at this point. We can't say what to expect with Fournier because he has yet to dawn a Magic uniform. However, if Harris is gone...I could see extension talks with Harkless. Again, hard to say what would come from that. It all depends on how he develops this season. Regardless, I don't think that he ends up getting any substantial offers and one way or another...we keep him around.
The Final Phase
At this point we can go ahead and look at the redefining summer of 2016. The landscape of the NBA will forever be different and Rob wants to be a big player. At this point, it is time to spend big and bring in big time talent. Of course the top two names will be Kevin Durant and LeBron James but there will be plenty more to be had. This time I will speculate as to what our cap situation will look like...
Nikola Vucevic: 15 Million
Moe Harkless: 8 Million
Free Agents X*: 8 Million
Channing Frye: 7.5 Million
Victor Oladipo: 6.6 Million
Aaron Gordon: 3.6 Million
Elfrid Payton: 2.2 Million
Total Committed Salary: 50.9 Million
Projected Cap: 80 Million
Projected Cap Space: 29.1 Million
*Signed in the summer of 2015 to a similar deals that Channing Frye received. Could be one or two players equaling this total. Likely veterans that help development, much like Frye is supposed to do.
Plenty of money to spend while maintaining the core of young talent we are developing. You throw an elite player in to that mix (or multiple; more room could be created by moving the veterans) and we have a contending team. Once we bring in this max FA(s), we then are able to extend Oladipo, Payton, and Gordon if they pan out. The entire core would be locked up long term and allow us to create chemistry, building towards multiple title runs. Exactly the direction that Hennigan wants to head.
This is certainly a long rebuild but it makes perfect sense. The cornerstones of the Hennigan rebuild will be...
-Capitalizing on first round draft picks.
-Quality scouting that leads to finding diamonds in the rough during the 2nd round.
-Acquire as many assets as possible along the way.
-Hand over the keys to your young team and let them develop with vet mentors in the background to guide them.
-Don't let your players blossom on another roster.
-Develop from within and then making an educated decision on whether or not they are in the long term plans.
-Put the roster in the best position possible to take the leap towards contending in the summer of 2016.
