ImageImageImageImage

Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble)

Moderators: UCF, Knightro, Howard Mass, UCFJayBird, Def Swami, ChosenSavior, SOUL

User avatar
Hilltop
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 22,301
And1: 731
Joined: Apr 25, 2002
Location: Toronto, ON
       

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#21 » by Hilltop » Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:04 am

shadrock wrote:
rcklsscognition wrote:I don't like to take away real numbers from preseason, but rather look at production ratios and take the totals and eye catchy stuff out of the mix. It helps me determine what type of player we've got.

Gordon- 1 : 0.6 : 0.15. I like that point to rebound ratio. That is elite power forward territory with passing skills.

For comparison to see why I think Gordon is a 4 not a 3. Tim Duncan, an ideal traditional PF had the following ratios over his career: 1 : 0.55 : 0.1 (Points, Rebounds, Assists)

Blake Griffin: 1 : 0.45 : 0.17
An ideal stretch 4, like Dirk: 1 : 0.4 : 0.12
An ideal small forward, let's say Marion: 1 : 0.3 : 0.12
Modern day small foward, Pierce: 1 : 0.28 : 0.18
Or Melo: 1 : 0.25 : 0.125

Basically, the further you get away from the traditional PF, the further Gordon's stats get from that player.

I personally believe that unless a player is fundamentally and systematically altered, they are who they are from their early teenage years. Gordon had a 1 : 0.64 : 0.15 ratio in college and a 1 : 0.56 : 0.12 in high school. Pretty similar numbers. He'll be a power forward.

Payton- 1 : 0.5 : 0.9 : 0.2. Will get some triple dubs once he's got some experience under his belt. These are elite pass first defensive point guard ratios. Think Rondo and a better-rebounding Gary Payton.

Marble- 1 : 0.2 : 0.1 : 0.05- This is 6th man ala Crawford type ratio but with less passing. Jamal was a 16 to 4 to 4 guy for like the first 8 years of his career I think. Marble is less 3 dimensional because of the passing, but the numbers are close.


Appreciate the effort you have gone to in finding this info, but im questioning the science behind it. If you could find a way to factor in volume and efficiency in some way, it would be a more relevant stat.

His stat isn't measuring effectiveness or efficiency though. It attempts to measure the composition of a players statistics and nothing more.
User avatar
shadrock
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,901
And1: 3,521
Joined: Oct 16, 2009
   

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#22 » by shadrock » Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:11 am

Hilltop wrote:
shadrock wrote:
rcklsscognition wrote:I don't like to take away real numbers from preseason, but rather look at production ratios and take the totals and eye catchy stuff out of the mix. It helps me determine what type of player we've got.

Gordon- 1 : 0.6 : 0.15. I like that point to rebound ratio. That is elite power forward territory with passing skills.

For comparison to see why I think Gordon is a 4 not a 3. Tim Duncan, an ideal traditional PF had the following ratios over his career: 1 : 0.55 : 0.1 (Points, Rebounds, Assists)

Blake Griffin: 1 : 0.45 : 0.17
An ideal stretch 4, like Dirk: 1 : 0.4 : 0.12
An ideal small forward, let's say Marion: 1 : 0.3 : 0.12
Modern day small foward, Pierce: 1 : 0.28 : 0.18
Or Melo: 1 : 0.25 : 0.125

Basically, the further you get away from the traditional PF, the further Gordon's stats get from that player.

I personally believe that unless a player is fundamentally and systematically altered, they are who they are from their early teenage years. Gordon had a 1 : 0.64 : 0.15 ratio in college and a 1 : 0.56 : 0.12 in high school. Pretty similar numbers. He'll be a power forward.

Payton- 1 : 0.5 : 0.9 : 0.2. Will get some triple dubs once he's got some experience under his belt. These are elite pass first defensive point guard ratios. Think Rondo and a better-rebounding Gary Payton.

Marble- 1 : 0.2 : 0.1 : 0.05- This is 6th man ala Crawford type ratio but with less passing. Jamal was a 16 to 4 to 4 guy for like the first 8 years of his career I think. Marble is less 3 dimensional because of the passing, but the numbers are close.


Appreciate the effort you have gone to in finding this info, but im questioning the science behind it. If you could find a way to factor in volume and efficiency in some way, it would be a more relevant stat.

His stat isn't measuring effectiveness or efficiency. It attempts to measure the composition of a players statistics.


Yeah and what im saying is that this would see a player who averages 10pts 5rebs and 5 assists in 36 mins on 35% shooting as having the same profile as a player who averages 30pts 15rebs and 15 assists im 36 mins on 60% shooting. One is the greatest player of all time. The other is a scrub. Without context, the stat is pointless.

Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk
Image
User avatar
Hilltop
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 22,301
And1: 731
Joined: Apr 25, 2002
Location: Toronto, ON
       

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#23 » by Hilltop » Sun Oct 26, 2014 8:18 am

shadrock wrote:
Hilltop wrote:
shadrock wrote:Appreciate the effort you have gone to in finding this info, but im questioning the science behind it. If you could find a way to factor in volume and efficiency in some way, it would be a more relevant stat.

His stat isn't measuring effectiveness or efficiency. It attempts to measure the composition of a players statistics.


Yeah and what im saying is that this would see a player who averages 10pts 5rebs and 5 assists in 36 mins on 35% shooting as having the same profile as a player who averages 30pts 15rebs and 15 assists im 36 mins on 60% shooting. One is the greatest player of all time. The other is a scrub. Without context, the stat is pointless.

Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk

His goal was to show that Gordon's numbers more closely resemble that of a traditional PFs rather than a SF. I don't think this has anything to do with Gordon being as good as Duncan, Griffin, etc.
User avatar
shadrock
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,901
And1: 3,521
Joined: Oct 16, 2009
   

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#24 » by shadrock » Sun Oct 26, 2014 8:32 am

Hilltop wrote:
shadrock wrote:
Hilltop wrote:His stat isn't measuring effectiveness or efficiency. It attempts to measure the composition of a players statistics.


Yeah and what im saying is that this would see a player who averages 10pts 5rebs and 5 assists in 36 mins on 35% shooting as having the same profile as a player who averages 30pts 15rebs and 15 assists im 36 mins on 60% shooting. One is the greatest player of all time. The other is a scrub. Without context, the stat is pointless.

Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk

His goal was to show that Gordon's numbers more closely resemble that of a traditional PFs rather than a SF. I don't think this has anything to do with Gordon being as good as Duncan, Griffin, etc.


Ahhh ok I get what you're saying :)

Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk
Image
User avatar
fendilim
RealGM
Posts: 30,657
And1: 5,019
Joined: Jun 11, 2002
Location: 孫悟空, 时间太?!

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#25 » by fendilim » Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:36 am

Lol
Image
User avatar
CarraT
Senior
Posts: 531
And1: 189
Joined: Jul 22, 2004
Location: Germany
   

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#26 » by CarraT » Sun Oct 26, 2014 4:05 pm

Hilltop wrote:
shadrock wrote:
rcklsscognition wrote:I don't like to take away real numbers from preseason, but rather look at production ratios and take the totals and eye catchy stuff out of the mix. It helps me determine what type of player we've got.

Gordon- 1 : 0.6 : 0.15. I like that point to rebound ratio. That is elite power forward territory with passing skills.

For comparison to see why I think Gordon is a 4 not a 3. Tim Duncan, an ideal traditional PF had the following ratios over his career: 1 : 0.55 : 0.1 (Points, Rebounds, Assists)

Blake Griffin: 1 : 0.45 : 0.17
An ideal stretch 4, like Dirk: 1 : 0.4 : 0.12
An ideal small forward, let's say Marion: 1 : 0.3 : 0.12
Modern day small foward, Pierce: 1 : 0.28 : 0.18
Or Melo: 1 : 0.25 : 0.125

Basically, the further you get away from the traditional PF, the further Gordon's stats get from that player.

I personally believe that unless a player is fundamentally and systematically altered, they are who they are from their early teenage years. Gordon had a 1 : 0.64 : 0.15 ratio in college and a 1 : 0.56 : 0.12 in high school. Pretty similar numbers. He'll be a power forward.

Payton- 1 : 0.5 : 0.9 : 0.2. Will get some triple dubs once he's got some experience under his belt. These are elite pass first defensive point guard ratios. Think Rondo and a better-rebounding Gary Payton.

Marble- 1 : 0.2 : 0.1 : 0.05- This is 6th man ala Crawford type ratio but with less passing. Jamal was a 16 to 4 to 4 guy for like the first 8 years of his career I think. Marble is less 3 dimensional because of the passing, but the numbers are close.


Appreciate the effort you have gone to in finding this info, but im questioning the science behind it. If you could find a way to factor in volume and efficiency in some way, it would be a more relevant stat.

His stat isn't measuring effectiveness or efficiency though. It attempts to measure the composition of a players statistics and nothing more.


Yes, but this stat doesnt say anything about the position a player should play. it just relates his rebounding/assist numbers to his points. if you have a good scoring and normal rebounding PF , this stat would indicate he should not play PF. Or if you have a good rebounding but not scoring guard, for example, here are the numbers for tony allen in 2007-08: 1 : 0,44 : 02. So he should have played at PF?? Also: "An ideal small forward, let's say Marion: 1 : 0.3 : 0.12" is not true. His Carrer Stats are 1 : 0,56 : 0,12. So hes not an ideal SF?
Just because Gordon is a good rebounder and right now is not a good scorer, doesnt mean he´s best position is pf and not sf
User avatar
fendilim
RealGM
Posts: 30,657
And1: 5,019
Joined: Jun 11, 2002
Location: 孫悟空, 时间太?!

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#27 » by fendilim » Sun Oct 26, 2014 4:13 pm

Well correct me if imm wrong but marion didactually play the best yrs of his career in phx where they played small ball, and actually have him at the 4.
Image
OrlChamps2030
General Manager
Posts: 7,751
And1: 4,160
Joined: Jul 18, 2009
     

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#28 » by OrlChamps2030 » Sun Oct 26, 2014 4:48 pm

fendilim wrote:Well correct me if imm wrong but marion didactually play the best yrs of his career in phx where they played small ball, and actually have him at the 4.

Marion even had a season where he played some of his best ball at C iirc
User avatar
rcklsscognition
RealGM
Posts: 21,985
And1: 7,141
Joined: Mar 23, 2009
Contact:
 

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#29 » by rcklsscognition » Sun Oct 26, 2014 5:17 pm

What are Tony's career ratios? That year he was an elite rebounder. You don't have to be a genius to know tony can't be a center, he is a guard. This is a way to look at style of play. That's why I included a stretch four as example.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using RealGM Forums mobile app
Image
User avatar
BadMofoPimp
RealGM
Posts: 47,397
And1: 11,602
Joined: Oct 12, 2003
Location: In the Paint

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#30 » by BadMofoPimp » Sun Oct 26, 2014 6:15 pm

The problem with stat ratio's is that players like Anthony Tolliver can appear to be elite power forwards but when you see them compete against other elite players, they are not elite.

The tale is in the tape which means until one can develop and prove themselves consistently against other elite talent, they are not elite.
Image

Provin Ya'll Wrong!!!
User avatar
Last Guardian
RealGM
Posts: 26,076
And1: 3,950
Joined: Feb 22, 2004
Location: New Jersey
 

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#31 » by Last Guardian » Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:11 pm

AG is a pretty awesome. He is big/strong enough to play PF and athletic enough (obviously, one of the most athletic in the league) to play SF. He rebounds well, defends elite and has some solid ballhandling and 3pt shot.

Payton...hard not to like the 6'4 pass first PG with athleticism. Not a scorer though, and gambles WAY too much on defense.

Marble...NBA ready. Not sure how he fell so far. His scoring ability is pretty clear.
User avatar
tooler
General Manager
Posts: 9,155
And1: 5,349
Joined: Feb 26, 2014

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#32 » by tooler » Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:39 pm

Last Guardian wrote:Payton...hard not to like the 6'4 pass first PG with athleticism. Not a scorer though, and gambles WAY too much on defense.

I haven't seen him gamble in 1 on 1 defense but he wanders way too far from his man on help defense. I wonder if he's freelancing or Jacque told him to do that.
User avatar
CarraT
Senior
Posts: 531
And1: 189
Joined: Jul 22, 2004
Location: Germany
   

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#33 » by CarraT » Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:02 pm

rcklsscognition wrote:What are Tony's career ratios? That year he was an elite rebounder. You don't have to be a genius to know tony can't be a center, he is a guard. This is a way to look at style of play. That's why I included a stretch four as example.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using RealGM Forums mobile app


Ok, here are some ratios of career stats from other small forwards:
Kirilenko 1 : 0,46
Batum 1 : 0,42
Kawhi Leonard 1 : 0,52
Ariza 1 : 4,7

They all are great Rebounders and not so good scorers, but they are clearly small forwards.
im not saying gordon should def play sf, but you cant say he should play pf just because of his points to rebounds ratio.
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 36,602
And1: 7,924
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#34 » by drsd » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:56 am

..

The O-Sen is running a fascinating story on Payton.
O-Sen: Elfrid Payton Jr. brings a calm competitiveness to the Magic backcourt

Some nuggets of news:
1) When he got pranked a week ago, he took it as a chance to work on his game without competing for the ball.
2) His father is the #2 sack man in Canadian Football history.
3) He started school at 3 and was a high school senior at 16 (thus he started college a year early).



"You may not always be the most talented or the most skilled or be the fastest and things like that," Elfrid Jr. says. "But if you can outwork people, you'll always be in a good position and have a chance to win."



..
JBSouthpaw
Analyst
Posts: 3,173
And1: 1,273
Joined: Mar 01, 2011

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#35 » by JBSouthpaw » Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:05 pm

drsd wrote:..

The O-Sen is running a fascinating story on Payton.
O-Sen: Elfrid Payton Jr. brings a calm competitiveness to the Magic backcourt

Some nuggets of news:
1) When he got pranked a week ago, he took it as a chance to work on his game without competing for the ball.
2) His father is the #2 sack man in Canadian Football history.
3) He started school at 3 and was a high school senior at 16 (thus he started college a year early).



"You may not always be the most talented or the most skilled or be the fastest and things like that," Elfrid Jr. says. "But if you can outwork people, you'll always be in a good position and have a chance to win."



..


what was the prank?
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 36,602
And1: 7,924
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#36 » by drsd » Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:44 pm

JBSouthpaw wrote:what was the prank?



Video is here:
NBA.com LINK



..
flying_mollusk
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,575
And1: 798
Joined: May 21, 2005

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#37 » by flying_mollusk » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:11 pm

Really hope Payton reduces his turnovers. I tried to find great passing NBA PGs that averaged a lot of turnovers their first year, and couldn't find any.
User avatar
SOUL
Forum Mod - Magic
Forum Mod - Magic
Posts: 55,299
And1: 37,628
Joined: Dec 11, 2006
Location: Neo Banchero
     

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#38 » by SOUL » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:41 pm

flying_mollusk wrote:Really hope Payton reduces his turnovers. I tried to find great passing NBA PGs that averaged a lot of turnovers their first year, and couldn't find any.


magic johnson .. 4 turnovers
jason kidd.. 3.2 (4 his second year)
isiah thomas .. 4.2

i would expect payton to have around 4 this season
Image
Smitty731
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 21,364
And1: 24,662
Joined: Feb 09, 2014
       

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#39 » by Smitty731 » Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:25 pm

Completely unbiased here, I really like Gordon. I think he's going to be really, really good. I think the Marion comparison is spot on. The key will be if he can develop a somewhat reliable outside shot, like Marion added. I think Gordon, and how the team views him as a franchise type of guy, will have a big say in the contract offer Harris gets from the Magic.

As for Payton, he looks lost, except when he is attacking the basket. In the games I watched, two of them in person, the offense went to crap when he was running it. With Ridnour and Green, they would get guys in place and run the offense. Payton had a lot of dribbling and when he didn't have the ball, he just floated around the arc. I think it will get there though. He has the skills. Like most rookies, he needs time to put it all together. Once he knows what he is doing, he can let his athleticism take over. Then he'll have a true advantage.

Marble looks like he's going to be just a guy. Probably spend 4-5 years in the league bouncing around the end of rosters. Anytime he looked good, it was against other guys the same caliber as him. When he was in against actual NBA rotation players, he didn't do much. I don't think he shoots it good enough to play on the perimeter. Nor is he athletic enough to get to the rim. Kind of a tweener guard that every team has as their 12th to 15th guy.
flying_mollusk
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,575
And1: 798
Joined: May 21, 2005

Re: Final Rookie Preseason thoughts (Gordon/Payton/Marble) 

Post#40 » by flying_mollusk » Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:37 pm

SOUL wrote:
flying_mollusk wrote:Really hope Payton reduces his turnovers. I tried to find great passing NBA PGs that averaged a lot of turnovers their first year, and couldn't find any.


magic johnson .. 4 turnovers
jason kidd.. 3.2 (4 his second year)
isiah thomas .. 4.2

i would expect payton to have around 4 this season


If he has 4 in 33 minutes of play, Id be happy. (those guys ranged from 33-36 minutes a game their rookie year).

He had 3.8 in 25 minutes in the preseason, so cutting it down by 1 or so would be solid.

Oladipo cut it down to 3.2 in 31 minutes last year, but he also averaged fewer in preseason. Im confident Payton can reduce them. Alternatively, if he averages a **** ton of assists, that would be great too.

Return to Orlando Magic