Official Speculation Thread (Regular Season '14-'15)

[OrlandoNed]

We're 11-17 when one of our "big three" scorers is out with injury. We've won 3 games without dipo (missed 10 games), 4 games without harris (missed 10 games) and 4 games without vuc (missed 8 games). In those wins, Dipo has averaged 24.5 points (56% on 16.5 FGA in 8 games), Vuc 22.1 points (57% on 17.4 FGA in 7 games) and harris 19.4 points (45% on 15.9 FGA in 7 games). Anything to take away from this?

Not much to take away. When one of the 3 is out the other 2 step up their scoring output. That's all I take from it. Are you inferring something? I can't tell.

[MagicFan101]

Do you all remember benoh udrih? He was just as good if not betyer(as of my
Memory) than willie, Ben or luke. We let crap go and signed smellier crap. Can we not do this next season please? My wife came up to me and was all "I had lots of fun with our summer league pass". I said foc that. I'm not spending money on this crap.

I hope Henny can convince my poor self to again invest in this. I believed last offseason. I don't now. I hope we draft someone who gets more than 7 min average per game on our pathetic ass squad. Otherwise, why wouldn't you fire Henny!

I like Henny! But he isn't convincing me to spend money on his product!


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

You need to take a step back and enjoy a look at the big picture.

Quality vets don't sign one year contracts. They just don't. We signed Ben Gordon to a one year deal with an unguaranteed second year. Ridnour was a space filler on the roster who also bring a style of play no one else on the roster does.

These guys have NOTHING to do with the future of the Orlando Magic and anyone suffering this season should know that the future is all we have in Orlando.

Judge Henny after this summer.

[OrlandO]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ZachLowe_NBA/status/575710688749944832[/tweet]

[flying_mollusk]

BIG news from the salary cap front. Union has rejected the league's smoothing proposal. That means in the summer of 2016, the salary cap is going to jump massively:

The NBA announced Wednesday that the players' union formally rejected a so-called "cap-smoothing" proposal the league put forth to manage the influx of revenue that is coming with the $24 billion television deal with TNT and ESPN that begins after next season. NBA teams using internal data are projecting the salary cap to jump to between $88 million and $92 million per team, sources told ESPN. To compare, this season the cap is set at $63 million and next season it is projected to land at about $66 million. To put it into perspective, the largest salary-cap jump in history is $7 million in one season. What happens in 2016 could triple that leap.

That goes to an important factor. Those people who lost their **** about the Frye gamble that Henny took massively overstated how much that would hurt us. That means in the summer of 2016, Frye will have 2 years and 15 million left on his contract, about 7.5 million per year. If we assume worse case scenario, we bring back Harris for 15 million a year (overestimation, don't get mad), exercise team option on Oladipo, Gordon and Payton, sign our 2015 and 2016 rookies, and take Vuc into account, that puts our spending figure at around $50 million for those eight players. That's leaves cap space around 38-40 million.

That probably lets us bring back the remainder of the core if we want to. (Oquinn, Dedmon, Harkless, Fournier), or move some of those guys/not bring them back, with plenty of cap space to add a mega free agent, if we want to, or diversify the roster, if we want to. Vic will also be eligible for an extension that summer that would kick in the following summer, 2017. Around that time, Frye is an expiring contract.

[tooler]

Hmm, what's the impact for us? Off the top of my head, Oladipo will demand a huge extension in the summer of '16 after his third year. Could Tobias take the qualifying offer this year if he doesn't get the contract he's looking for? Is everyone getting the max this summer?

[rcklsscognition]

You don't want to give them true max, because that is just a percentage of the cap. You could give him monetary max, like 15 mil a year, so long as it isn't actual max and tied to the cap. I think he's looking at 11-12 mil a year.

[flying_mollusk]

I think it will prompt teams to max out their cap space this year getting guys like Tobias, then turn around and add another major free agent the year after with the additional $26 million in cap. I really think a lot of guys are going to get paid big time. Kind of glad some of our best players are either on their rookie deals or are locked in at a reasonable rate.

[ezzzp]

We still have more than a year before that offseason hits, but given the projected cap increase, it's hard to imagine anyone with a strong reputation and 2016 free agent eligibility taking a deal before then. Restricted free agents like Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard will be tempted to sign one-year qualifying offers so they can be a free agent in 2016.

http://www.sbnation.com/2015/3/11/8192081/nba-salary-cap-smoothing-2016-players-union

[rcklsscognition]

This guy did a comparison of the each NBA starter's likelihood to play a certain position, interesting.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Payton 4th likeliest to be a PG. Oladipo in with Harden, Ellis, and Kyrie. Vuc has a lot of PF in him. Tobias is a SF.

[tooler]

If big-time stars take QOs, that means teams will have more money to throw at second-tier free agents like Tobias.

I'm not sure they will though. For guys like Butler and Leonard who aren't supermax players, it seems like you'd make more in the end by taking a 2-year contract now.

Whatever happens, most players will probably have to wait for the stars to make a move like always.

[mojosodope]

You don't want to give them true max, because that is just a percentage of the cap. You could give him monetary max, like 15 mil a year, so long as it isn't actual max and tied to the cap. I think he's looking at 11-12 mil a year.

I believe actual max is tied to the first year of the contract with 7.5% increases annually. So actual max or max money doesn't really make a difference since there will be no cap smoothing.

[ezzzp]

Hmm, what's the impact for us? Off the top of my head, Oladipo will demand a huge extension in the summer of '16 after his third year. Could Tobias take the qualifying offer this year if he doesn't get the contract he's looking for? Is everyone getting the max this summer?

the Magic hold the option on Oladipo for two more seasons. RFA or extension talks for him begin summer of 2017...Gordon + Payton's come into play in summer of 2018.

[tooler]

Extension talks would be after the third year, which is 15-16 for Oladipo. I assume they'll know the cap by that point, right?

[Bensational]

We still have more than a year before that offseason hits, but given the projected cap increase, it's hard to imagine anyone with a strong reputation and 2016 free agent eligibility taking a deal before then. Restricted free agents like Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard will be tempted to sign one-year qualifying offers so they can be a free agent in 2016.

http://www.sbnation.com/2015/3/11/8192081/nba-salary-cap-smoothing-2016-players-union

probably a smart move at this point. or try to negotiate a 1 year max deal with an option, and then re-up next season. i think any team offering that deal as a gesture of good will should be able to ensure they extend once they're eligible again.

[BadMofoPimp]

Sure, lets add Butler behind Oladipo and Fournier. yeeeaaahhh right. That would be a smart move instead of adding a solid starting PF. Smart people around here. Lets keep Frye as starting PF and target best player availab e instead of smart targets. hahahaha

[Bensational]

a $15M max deal in the current CBA is the equivalent of roughly 25% of the cap, right?

in a new $90M cap, that deal would only be worth 15% of the cap. that's the equivalent of a $9M deal in today's cap situation.

in that light, we should sign Tobias no matter what he's offered, because even though i don't see him as a long term piece, if he were on a $9M deal he would be very easy to move.

i wonder if Henny can convince Dipo to buy into the 'team' concept when it comes time to extend him, and get him to take a deal around the same level as Vuc? Vuc could serve as a measuring stick for value within the team, the way Wallace did with Detroit in the early days.

[ezzzp]

Extension talks would be after the third year, which is 15-16 for Oladipo. I assume they'll know the cap by that point, right?

Its a team option in 2015-2016, the only reason the Magic negotiate early is if Oladipo wants to work out a favorable deal for the Magic. I just don't see that happening.

...but then again I never thought Vuc's agent would be foolish enough to not let the market dictate his clients value, especially with the cap about to explode. Vuc must have grown up wealthy or something...in 2016, his deal will be the proportional value of an MLE contract...that agent has to be the worst agent in the NBA. Lucky for us.

[ezzzp]

Sure, lets add Butler behind Oladipo and Fournier. yeeeaaahhh right. That would be a smart move instead of adding a solid starting PF. Smart people around here. Lets keep Frye as starting PF and target best player availab e instead of smart targets. hahahaha

thought it was obvious, but that link was intended to show how the exploding 2016 cap will affect restricted free agency this summer (not that we should chase Butler)...but that this will seriously affect the Harris situation.

offer sheet for him will be much larger now + the potential payoff for risking signing the qualifying offer (skipping RFA) just got worth a whole lot more.

[Bensational]

Sure, lets add Butler behind Oladipo and Fournier. yeeeaaahhh right. That would be a smart move instead of adding a solid starting PF. Smart people around here. Lets keep Frye as starting PF and target best player availab e instead of smart targets. hahahaha

what? Butler would play behind them? lol, whatever.

i don't think there's any chance of prying Butler away, and i agree that we need a PF. but we also need a star (which Dipo looks to be blossoming into). so sure, i wouldn't see a problem chasing the best player available until we have our own best player who's in the upper echelon of NBA players.

[shadrock]

Sac won today and Denver up bigggg on Atl. Good news for out pick.