Harris Being Out Benifits Vic & Vuc

[tooler]

There are really three variables at play.

1. Faster pace
2. Tobias out
3. Increased aggression by Vucevic, plus defensive intensity by Oladipo

Jacque alluded to "a talk" with Vucevic after the Lakers game and he came out like a man possessed against Portland. Even though he's picked up a lot of easy points from the pace, I suspect more of his impact comes from being aggressive. Deciding to bury Pau Gasol on that monster dunk comes from within. He seems like a changed player after a really bad stretch recently.

On the other hand, Oladipo has been attacking relentlessly since the mask came off. It wasn't until the pace increased and Harris went out that he's seen big increases in FGA and points. So I kind of see him as the same player he'd been the previous 10 games, only now he's been unleashed in a way he can thrive. (He did credit Elfrid's contagious effort on the other end of the floor.)

So does Tobias need to "be more aggressive" to see these same results? I think I see him more like Oladipo. The effort was already there. Now the floor has been stretched from pace and space so he doesn't have to charge into two defenders at the rim. And if he does so, we'll be able to call him on it based on the evidence this week. I think he'll fit right in though.

[ezzzp]

Good point. Some fans are worried about Harris taking shots from Vic/Vuc....no, he'll be taking shots away from bench guys who shouldn't even be shooting in the first place.

Hopefully he takes a few 3's away from Frye...

Tobias Harris is one of our best scorers; he should thrive in this type of offense (just as he did in the show-paced one).

Not true, Harris role in the offense is 1000x times more than Marble's was - a large portion of plays are called are for him. He takes the second most shots on this team. So unless he's coming off the bench those shots are primarily from the other players that get plays called for them (Vuc and Vic).

Why would you want to take shots away from Frye. He's very efficient offensively and is a big reason why the spacing is there for Vuc, Vic and Payton to operate - especially in a faster paced offense. It is not his fault JV only now figured out (oh wait Payton figured out) that increasing the pace would open up the floor / opportunities for everyone. This is the pace that made Frye crucial in Phoenix where he averaged 10 fga's per game. That's not a coincidence.

[ezzzp]

There are really three variables at play.

1. Faster pace
2. Tobias out
3. Increased aggression by Vucevic, plus defensive intensity by Oladipo

Jacque alluded to "a talk" with Vucevic after the Lakers game and he came out like a man possessed against Portland. Even though he's picked up a lot of easy points from the pace, I suspect more of his impact comes from being aggressive. Deciding to bury Pau Gasol on that monster dunk comes from within. He seems like a changed player after a really bad stretch recently.

On the other hand, Oladipo has been attacking relentlessly since the mask came off. It wasn't until the pace increased and Harris went out that he's seen big increases in FGA and points. So I kind of see him as the same player he'd been the previous 10 games, only now he's been unleashed in a way he can thrive. (He did credit Elfrid's contagious effort on the other end of the floor.)

So does Tobias need to "be more aggressive" to see these same results? I think I see him more like Oladipo. The effort was already there. Now the floor has been stretched from pace and space so he doesn't have to charge into two defenders at the rim. And if he does so, we'll be able to call him on it based on the evidence this week. I think he'll fit right in though.

Its possible that with Harris out and he being a huge chunk of the Magic offense, that meant Vuc was told he needed to step it up. Btw, this is not me saying Harris is a problem - only that the void nudged Vuc into warrior mode.

Oladipo's face mask came off at the same time that Elfrid was given the reigns instead of sitting in a corner when both were on the court. I'm of the opinion that Elfrid with the ball has released Oladipo and over the past two games its been Elfrid that has been the primary ball handler late in the fourth. Not a coincidence to me that Oladipo's late game attack has been more effective and less predictable to defend the last two games.

[GANGSTERDOG]

I absolutely cannot wait for this fast paced lineup

PAYTON
DIPO
AIR GORDON
HARRIS
VUC

[tooler]

Oladipo's face mask came off at the same time that Elfrid was given the reigns instead of sitting in a corner when both were on the court. I'm of the opinion that Elfrid with the ball has released Oladipo and over the past two games its been Elfrid that has been the primary ball handler late in the fourth. Not a coincidence to me that Oladipo's late game attack has been more effective and less predictable to defend the last two games.

Good point. We use "post-mask Oladipo" as shorthand to talk about when his aggressiveness changed but the move to SG was certainly a bigger factor.

That's another variable but the cause-and-effect is easier to see.

[BadWolf]

I think the main difference is increased pace. Teams will adapt and expect the changes. You don't really believe Vuc and Dipo are two best showers in the league?

[Bensational]

If Vic and Vuc continue to shoot 63-64% and average 32ppg+ as they has been for the past 2 games, then sure, who needs Harris? we'd be sitting on the two best players in the league.

But this often happens. players go down, other players step up in their absence and they're able to surprise the opposition. not saying this is a fluke, by any stretch. this might be Dipo and Vuc's coming out party, and we may be looking at a situation where both these guys play better as a duo, rather than a trio with Harris.

but, those numbers are freakishly high for both guys, and outside of season averages by a long shot. you'd need to give this lineup a proper 10 games without Harris to feel like you're getting a sense of the consistency they could deliver, and then you'd need to play another 10 with Harris in it for comparison's sake, at the very least.

despite everything we heap on JV, i still think this team is finding itself in a big way. JV couldn't order these guys to have gone out and done this from day 1, so it's enjoyable watching the team find its identity and still remain in the playoff hunt.

[ogmagicfan]

Definite wait and see on this. Harris could very well explode in this offense.

That said, the two key variables in the improved performance the past 3 games are pace and Harris being out.

Its no secret that shot distribution and effort/energy on both ends of the floor are closely related; so it is very possibly a combination of the increased pace (added 10 more fga's per game) + the redistribution of Harris' 15 fga's per game to other players.

The key beneficiary of that shot increase was Frye who has put up 10 fga's the last 3 games. Of note, when Frye puts up 10+ fga's the Magic are 5-4. The losses: Philly (lost by 2), Toronto (lost by 4), Utah (blow out), Portland (close game til final 3 minutes).

Another notable difference is that in the last two games, Payton has been the primary ball distributor late in the 4th keeping Oladipo off the ball. Its no surprise that off the ball, Oladipo has been considerably better.

The shots of Harris' have gone to players like Harkless and Marble who went 0-14 from the field last night. It's not even the fact that good defense was being played on them, they were both just missing blatantly wide open 3's all night. Put Harris in the game and we would've easily scored 130+ in the game against the Rockets

Nah.

Marble (who started in place of Harris) has averaged 6 shots per game. Harris averages 15.

Vuc averages 15.5 fga but in the past 3 has averaged 21.3 fga's
Vic averages 12.7 fga but in the past 3 has averaged 19.0 fga's
Frye averages 6.9 fga but in the past 3 has averaged 10.0 fga's

Also, Harris isn't assigned to sit in the corner in the offense like Marble and Harkless. He is 1000 times more involved in the offense when he's on the floor. Totally different situations.

Also, Harkless mostly played the 4 last night.

Yeah part of the reason players have been getting more shot attempts is because we've been playing at a scorching pace, aka more shots to go around. We've had 20 more possessions per game than the regular season. Vuc won't be putting up 21 attemps per game, and Oladipo probably wont be shooting 19. Most likely Vuc will average around 17-18 FGA per game and Oladipo will put up around 15 FGA per game.

Tobias will end up getting his 15 FGA per game, maybe even more with the fast pace offense.

[ogmagicfan]

Always remember, correlation DOES NOT mean causation

[tooler]

but, those numbers are freakishly high for both guys, and outside of season averages by a long shot.

You're right. I'm more excited about the inputs than the outputs, if that makes sense. Both of them are attacking the basket and Oladipo has already drawn a lot of FTAs the last 11 games. He's also practicing clutch possessions.

It's the same with the pace: we are going to lose, and there will be games with lots of bricks against teams that dial in and slow us down. But it's our best chance at relatively consistent output compared to the roller coaster earlier this year.

In other words, if we had randomly beaten Houston and Chicago earlier this season with our usual style, I'd be a lot more skeptical about how "real" all this is.

[KingRobb02]

Not really the point I was making, I was saying he was a natural fit for the offense we're trying to run. But since you said it, you think the Knicks would be better without Melo? The Knicks suck despite Melo, not because of him.

And amazingly, the Nuggets offense took off as soon as Melo left.

They averaged less PPG during 2010-2011 after he left, and they haven't scored as many PPG as Carmelo's last two seasons since. Not exactly what I'd call taking off. You really think Melo was a detriment to that team? Because that seems strange to me.

Points per game doesn't account for them slowing their pace a bit after Carmelo left. What I meant is that they would have led the league in Offensive Efficiency, eFG%, and TS% after Carmelo left.


And, I'm not flat out calling him a detriment to Denver. I just find it odd that since he was traded, Denver has been better than New York every single year. Not too many "superstars" that you can say that about.

[DMack78]

Hi everyone,

I might be wrong here but do Vuc and Dipo benifit from Harris being out the team ?

They are obviously our main two offensive guys but when Harris is in the team they dont get the ball as much and less plays run for them.

I might be waaaaay off here and its just good timing that they are both on fire at the moment when we need them the most.

Finally some one says what I've been thinking since he has been out. Vuc and Dipo have been playing like madmen with out him. Not knocking Harris just interested to see if it becomes a 3 man wrecking crew when he comes back or if Dipo kinda fades into the background.

[shadrock]

I have no doubt Harris would fit in well with the starters in this new up-tempo offence, but I just think his value for us is playing as the 6th man. The thought of having someone like Tobes come in and absolutely destroy other teams backup units is very appealing. He could be the Carmelo Anthony of our backup crew, with him getting force fed the ball all over the court.

[BCS]

Its all about fit and lets be honest Harris and Frye at the Forward positions at the same time just hurts us, so when he comes back I would prefer him to come off the bench with the 2nd unit for a scoring punch, not that he is not going to get his minutes, he still will, but see how it goes with him leading the 2nd unit.

Also I would keep him in the bench until AG returns and maybe have both of them start at the forward position to always have AG guard the better forward on the other team.

If they do decide to insert him in the starting lineup once he comes back, it is pretty clear to me, its not to take Marble's place like I see most mention, he has to take Frye,s place. Harris slows our offense playing the 3, let's be realistic he isn't as quick as Marble and worse of all Harris and Frye together will take a toll on our aggressive defense plain and simple.

[Bensational]

And, I'm not flat out calling him a detriment to Denver. I just find it odd that since he was traded, Denver has been better than New York every single year. Not too many "superstars" that you can say that about.

Melo took Denver to the WCFs. He was the heart of what made that team great. The other pieces were what made that team good.

In New York, Melo has no pieces that make the team good in the first place, so he's unable to make them great. His best year in NY had Chandler, Felton, Smith, Kidd and Novak as his best and most consistent help. I got no idea how he lead that team to a 54-28 record.

Once Melo gets help in a season or two, that team will rocket back up to 50+ Ws again, if he's not too old by then.

[Bensational]

but, those numbers are freakishly high for both guys, and outside of season averages by a long shot.

You're right. I'm more excited about the inputs than the outputs, if that makes sense. Both of them are attacking the basket and Oladipo has already drawn a lot of FTAs the last 11 games. He's also practicing clutch possessions.

It's the same with the pace: we are going to lose, and there will be games with lots of bricks against teams that dial in and slow us down. But it's our best chance at relatively consistent output compared to the roller coaster earlier this year.

In other words, if we had randomly beaten Houston and Chicago earlier this season with our usual style, I'd be a lot more skeptical about how "real" all this is.

Oh yeah, I'm not disputing that or saying I'm not excited to see how this all plays out. But I think people calling for Tobes to be a 6th man already are jumping the gun, and probably the same people who wanted Dipo benched at the start of the season.

I don't have a dog in this race, it's just exciting to see something that looks like a dramatic step towards progress, and now I want to do our due diligence and find out how far that goes.

[Orlwillbeback]

I think i think marbles role as designated defender and with harris out of the sl, generally our roles are more clearly defined.

[MagicStarwipe]

Can the people who were going back and forth with me finally see why I said Dipo has a higher ceiling than Tobias? Tobias has had big games, but when Oladipo goes off he takes it to another level. And he does it on both sides of the floor.

[ezzzp]

Can the people who were going back and forth with me finally see why I said Dipo has a higher ceiling than Tobias? Tobias has had big games, but when Oladipo goes off he takes it to another level. And he does it on both sides of the floor.

Both are 22.
Both were derailed by injuries, Harris last year and Oladipo this year.
Both are having good season thus far with Harris having a little bit better year.

Oladipo is speculated to eventually become a great defender in the future.

Harris has hit multiple game winners to Oladipo one in summer league.
Harris has had this:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2ycA_BzQu0[/youtube]

...as far as I can see, I think its impossible to tell who'll have a higher ceiling. But using current numbers, game winners, and peak games - the only clue is that Harris is ahead substantially on the offensive end... as of right now.

[MagicStarwipe]

It's not impossible. Watch them play. Look at their skillets. Look at their physical abilities. It's very possible to tell. If both reach their ceiling Oladipo will be the better player. The last 2 games alone by Oladipo are more impressive than anything Harris has ever done in a Magic uniform.