23-24 Stat Tracking

[Bensational]

I think it will be interesting to keep something of a log of the statistical development of the season as we go, plus whatever projections we want to throw in.

Now I know it's too early for stats to mean much with such small sample sizes so it's mostly live tracking until we can zoom out for bigger perspective.

Lineup Data will be interesting to monitor early on because it will fluctuate pretty wildly. But right now:

Team Advanced Stats
We're 2nd in the league in Netrtg, behind the Pacers, and we have the 10th best ortg. That's a good start by anyone's measure!

5-man Lineups*
*- I've only accounted for lineups that featured in both games, so no rookie data.
In the 5-man lineups, our top 2 main lineups are a +23.2 netrtg for the starters and and +25.6 for the 2nd unit. The 2nd unit has done so with tight defense and a low offense, and the starters did it with high end offense and strong defense.

2-man Lineups
In the 2-man lineups, the biggest surprise of all is that the Fultz and Cole backcourt seems to work by the numbers, but in the game threads everyone seemed to hate the combo and thought they brought the team down. Franz and Paolo a +14 net, with a 111 ortg, which is good to see.

The only judgements that can be cast here is that the team is on the right track!

[Residual-Heat]

24 teams played on Wednesday, and the Magic's opponent scored the least amount of points of all those teams.

22 teams played on Friday, and the Magic's opponent scored the least amount of points of all those teams.

Now we didnt play against good teams, but this is still a nice start.

[eyriq]

We're slicing and dicing through the league's ups and downs every five Magic games, using Basketball Reference projections based on 1,000 simulations of the regular season. I'm going to start the deltas based on last seasons final standings, and update the rankings every 5 games.

East
1. Celtics ❯
2. 76ers▲1
3. Magic ▲10
4. Hawks ▲4
5. Raptors ▲4
6. Bucks ▼5
___________
7. Knicks ▼3
8. Nets ▼2
9. Heat ▼1
10. Pistons ▲5
___________
11. Pacers ❯
12. Hornets ▲2
13. Cavaliers ▼9
14. Bulls ▼4
15. Wizards ▼3

[Residual-Heat]

Second in FTrate, 1st in fouls called per game against opponents.
3rd in forcing TOs.
The Magic arent going to be a good 3pt shooting team, but one thing I really want to see is them shooting a better 3pt % than their opponents. We're not there yet. Magic are shooting 32.4%, opponents shoot 33.7%.

[Residual-Heat]

Cole (7.2) and Suggs (7.7) are outrebounding Paolo (6.8) and Franz (6.1) per 36. Still, its good to see Franz rebounding numbers looking significantly better than they did last season.

[drsd]

So far, the Magic's FG% has dipped for both their 2 and 3 balls. But the pace is higher. The Magic's scoring is saved by a huge increase in offensive rebounds; 2.3 offensive rpg more this year so far.

The net consequence of the Magic shooting worse but having a higher pace and more offensive rebounds per game is a shift from 111.4 ppg last year to 109.7 ppg this year.

The Magic is winning as this is off-set my nice increases in defense. Orlando's 3-pt defense has improved from 35.1% last year to 33.7% this year AND a 2-pt improvement from 56.7% to 52.3%.

Orlando is winning because the defensive improvements has shifted the team from 114.0 ppg surrendered to 103.5 ppg. That is ridiculous! To be 10 ppg better defensively. WOW.

[drsd]

We're slicing and dicing through the league's ups and downs every five Magic games, using Basketball Reference projections based on 1,000 simulations of the regular season. I'm going to start the deltas based on last seasons final standings, and update the rankings every 5 games.

East
1. Celtics ❯
2. 76ers▲1
3. Magic ▲10
4. Hawks ▲4
5. Raptors ▲4
6. Bucks ▼5
___________
7. Knicks ▼3
8. Nets ▼2
9. Heat ▼1
10. Pistons ▲5
___________
11. Pacers ❯
12. Hornets ▲2
13. Cavaliers ▼9
14. Bulls ▼4
15. Wizards ▼3

This has Orlando at a 48 win total. Not your 50+, but NOBODY here is gonna be against 48 wins.

GO MAGIC!


Edit: these computers has the Magic winning the title at 6.7%, and is the league's 6th best team predicted to win the trophy.

[D J C]

Cole (7.2) and Suggs (7.7) are outrebounding Paolo (6.8) and Franz (6.1) per 36. Still, its good to see Franz rebounding numbers looking significantly better than they did last season.

I think this is a result of design/play style more than anything else. If you keep your eyes on Suggs on the defensive end, he's always roaming around the paint, playing/reacting off the pass to the perimeter. But he's always near the rim and with his athleticism he's able to beat people on the boards despite his size. Cole always seems to like crashing the boards on both sides of the ball, and he's got a pretty good vertical and always seems to have good timing.

Overall we're an above average rebounding team. Sure, we could be better, and Paolo and Franz are definitely less aggressive on the boards, but I dont think its really a problem. And if thats what it takes for them to have more energy to run our offense, I think its worth the trade off.

[eyriq]

We're slicing and dicing through the league's ups and downs every five Magic games, using Basketball Reference projections based on 1,000 simulations of the regular season. I'm going to start the deltas based on last seasons final standings, and update the rankings every 5 games.

East
1. Celtics ❯
2. 76ers▲1
3. Magic ▲10
4. Hawks ▲4
5. Raptors ▲4
6. Bucks ▼5
___________
7. Knicks ▼3
8. Nets ▼2
9. Heat ▼1
10. Pistons ▲5
___________
11. Pacers ❯
12. Hornets ▲2
13. Cavaliers ▼9
14. Bulls ▼4
15. Wizards ▼3

This has Orlando at a 48 win total. Not your 50+, but NOBODY here is gonna be against 48 wins.

GO MAGIC!


Edit: these computers has the Magic winning the title at 6.7%, and is the league's 6th best team predicted to win the trophy.

Haha, I love the low sample size SRS score

[Residual-Heat]

Cole (7.2) and Suggs (7.7) are outrebounding Paolo (6.8) and Franz (6.1) per 36. Still, its good to see Franz rebounding numbers looking significantly better than they did last season.

I think this is a result of design/play style more than anything else. If you keep your eyes on Suggs on the defensive end, he's always roaming around the paint, playing/reacting off the pass to the perimeter. But he's always near the rim and with his athleticism he's able to beat people on the boards despite his size. Cole always seems to like crashing the boards on both sides of the ball, and he's got a pretty good vertical and always seems to have good timing.

Overall we're an above average rebounding team. Sure, we could be better, and Paolo and Franz are definitely less aggressive on the boards, but I dont think its really a problem. And if thats what it takes for them to have more energy to run our offense, I think its worth the trade off.

I wasnt implying that there's a problem. Just pointing out the guards' skill/efforts on the boards. They deserve some credit.

[drsd]

Haha, I love the low sample size SRS score [/quote]

And-1

The other end is Tankathon using a model from last year. They have 1-6 Memphis as the regular season wins champion, and Orlando finishing as the 24th worst team.

Classic.

p.s. they have 5-0 Boston, the only undefeated team in the NBA, being the 30th worst team.

[eyriq]

And-1

The other end is Tankathon using a model from last year. They have 1-6 Memphis as the regular season wins champion, and Orlando finishing as the 24th worst team.

Classic.

I miss RAPTOR

[Bensational]

Lineup data has seen some huge shifts since those early games. After 7 games we’ve now seen a few different lineups and rotations out there. Limited sample size and all, I feel there might be a slight pattern emerging.

The biggest standouts:

Cole commonly shows up in the worst lineups. Leads that the starters build up dwindle when Cole comes in, especially in those 3rd quarter collapses. By the numbers he has been a terrible fit with Paolo and Franz.

Just from this tiny sample size of data and just general flow of the teams on the court, it looks like Paolo has performed much better with Goga and Black than he has with WCJ, Suggs, Franz and Fultz. But Franz has performed better with the original starters. Will be interesting to see if that trend continues or if it’s just noise amidst their early peaks and troughs.

[eyriq]

Lineup data has seen some huge shifts since those early games. After 7 games we’ve now seen a few different lineups and rotations out there. Limited sample size and all, I feel there might be a slight pattern emerging.

The biggest standouts:

Cole commonly shows up in the worst lineups. Leads that the starters build up dwindle when Cole comes in, especially in those 3rd quarter collapses. By the numbers he has been a terrible fit with Paolo and Franz.

Just from this tiny sample size of data and just general flow of the teams on the court, it looks like Paolo has performed much better with Goga and Black than he has with WCJ, Suggs, Franz and Fultz. But Franz has performed better with the original starters. Will be interesting to see if that trend continues or if it’s just noise amidst their early peaks and troughs.

My sense has been that there's a huge letdown defensively with that second unit, especially with Cole. Going from Suggs to Cole is a drastic change defensively.

[Bergmaniac]

Lineup data has seen some huge shifts since those early games. After 7 games we’ve now seen a few different lineups and rotations out there. Limited sample size and all, I feel there might be a slight pattern emerging.

The biggest standouts:

Cole commonly shows up in the worst lineups. Leads that the starters build up dwindle when Cole comes in, especially in those 3rd quarter collapses. By the numbers he has been a terrible fit with Paolo and Franz.

Just from this tiny sample size of data and just general flow of the teams on the court, it looks like Paolo has performed much better with Goga and Black than he has with WCJ, Suggs, Franz and Fultz. But Franz has performed better with the original starters. Will be interesting to see if that trend continues or if it’s just noise amidst their early peaks and troughs.

My sense has been that there's a huge letdown defensively with that second unit, especially with Cole. Going from Suggs to Cole is a drastic change defensively.

Cole playing most of his minutes together with Mo Wagner doesn't help the defence either, Mo is the worst defender among our bigs by some margin.

The main problem is that while they haven't been terrible together on D, the lineups with the two of them in them have been much worse than expected on offense given that both have scored efficiently individually and they had played a lot with Franz.

[eyriq]

We went 2-3 and dropped 7 spots. Ouch. Basketball Reference projections based on 1,000 simulations of the regular season.

East
1. Celtics ❯
2. 76ers ❯
3. Knicks ▲4
4. Pacers ▲7
5. Hawks ▼1
6. Nets ▲2
___________
7. Cavs ▲6
8. Bucks ▼2
9. Heat ❯
10. Magic ▼7
___________
11. Raptors ▼6
12. Bulls ▲2
13. Wizards ▲2
14. Hornets ▼3
15. Pistons ▼5

[Bergmaniac]

Still early days, but here are some lineup stats which I find interesting:

Ingles, despite his shooting strugges, has had a really positive effect on our offense. We have had an excellent 119.1 ORTG when he is on the court and a dreadful 101.3 (team's worst by far) when he has been on the bench.

The Isaac lineups have been dominat defensively - 97.2 DRTG.

As I mentioned in the game thread, one worrying sign is that the lineups where Paolo and Franz play together have been really bad offensively - 97.7 ORTG. Fortunately they have been very solid defensively (103.1 DRTG) so we have been able to overcome this in some games, but it's still a major issue and they need to improve offensively by quite a bit. What's also worrying is that these lineups have been really bad in the 4th quarter - 82.4 ORTG and 110.9 DRTG.

[Bensational]

It’s interesting to view stats by quarters.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Some interesting take aways:

We’ve got a potent Q2 team! Things have been clicking for everyone in those 2nd quarters.

Q3 and Q4 you can see where the efficiency disappears. Paolo, Franz, Suggs and Cole all become much more inefficient. Fultz, Moe and Gary are the only guys to hold shooting efficiency above 50% in these Q’s.

We gotta find a way to get Paolo and Franz going after half time.

[drsd]

We're slicing and dicing through the league's ups and downs every five Magic games, using Basketball Reference projections based on 1,000 simulations of the regular season. I'm going to start the deltas based on last seasons final standings, and update the rankings every 5 games.

East
1. Celtics ❯
2. 76ers▲1
3. Magic ▲10
4. Hawks ▲4
5. Raptors ▲4
6. Bucks ▼5
___________
7. Knicks ▼3
8. Nets ▼2
9. Heat ▼1
10. Pistons ▲5
___________
11. Pacers ❯
12. Hornets ▲2
13. Cavaliers ▼9
14. Bulls ▼4
15. Wizards ▼3

Currently the odds has 5 teams on 40-40. That would mean that the two TBD games would have near infinite fan interest.

It's kind of hard to see the Magic as anything less than a 11 seed.

[eyriq]

The Cavs and Bucks being play-in teams would really surprise me.