Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread

[Knightro]

Sweater vest points converted to win shares

Paolo Banchero: 11.46 wins
Franz Wagner: 8.89 wins
Jalen Suggs: 5.13 wins
Cole Anthony: 3.08 wins
Jonathan Isaac: 2.91 wins

Stop citing fan voting polls for anything

[eyriq]

Sweater vest points converted to win shares

Paolo Banchero: 11.46 wins
Franz Wagner: 8.89 wins
Jalen Suggs: 5.13 wins
Cole Anthony: 3.08 wins
Jonathan Isaac: 2.91 wins

Stop citing fan voting polls for anything

Neva! Best advanced stat around

[eyriq]

Sweater vest points converted to win shares

Paolo Banchero: 11.46 wins
Franz Wagner: 8.89 wins
Jalen Suggs: 5.13 wins
Cole Anthony: 3.08 wins
Jonathan Isaac: 2.91 wins

Stop citing fan voting polls for anything

Also, we are literally debating the point from a fan about how much credit JI should get for our wins LMFAO. You really make some hilarious points lately.

[Knightro]

Sweater vest points converted to win shares

Paolo Banchero: 11.46 wins
Franz Wagner: 8.89 wins
Jalen Suggs: 5.13 wins
Cole Anthony: 3.08 wins
Jonathan Isaac: 2.91 wins

Stop citing fan voting polls for anything

Also, we are literally debating the point from a fan about how much credit JI should get for our wins LMFAO. You really make some hilarious points lately.

Yeah we are... except we're using actual on-court performance metrics and not the opinions of 30 RealGM posters.

Have a couple more beers

[thelead]

Sweater vest points converted to win shares

Paolo Banchero: 11.46 wins
Franz Wagner: 8.89 wins
Jalen Suggs: 5.13 wins
Cole Anthony: 3.08 wins
Jonathan Isaac: 2.91 wins

Stop citing fan voting polls for anything

Also, we are literally debating the point from a fan about how much credit JI should get for our wins LMFAO. You really make some hilarious points lately.

Read this thread and tell me you want to side with what some fans think
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=2328871

[SOUL]

I love drunk eyriq

[eyriq]

Stop citing fan voting polls for anything

Also, we are literally debating the point from a fan about how much credit JI should get for our wins LMFAO. You really make some hilarious points lately.

Yeah we are... except we're using actual on-court performance metrics and not the opinions of 30 RealGM posters.

Have a couple more beers

Sweater vest points are based on actual on-court performance. Human beings tracking the game with intimate knowledge of the team and then ranking players in poll is a legitimate methodology. Surveys and polls drive a ton of data analysis. Try again. YOUR stats are actually circumstantial and don't directly get at the share of wins JI should get credit for. They only speak to the impact he has when he's on the court. He's not been on the court enough.

Finally, I ran out of beer.

[eyriq]

Stop citing fan voting polls for anything

Also, we are literally debating the point from a fan about how much credit JI should get for our wins LMFAO. You really make some hilarious points lately.

Read this thread and tell me you want to side with what some fans think
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=2328871

LOLZ... well... I mean... Wisdom of the masses eventually won out!

[RookieStar]

Stop citing fan voting polls for anything

Also, we are literally debating the point from a fan about how much credit JI should get for our wins LMFAO. You really make some hilarious points lately.

Yeah we are... except we're using actual on-court performance metrics and not the opinions of 30 RealGM posters.

Have a couple more beers

Wow... only 30 posters knightro? I thought our population in this board was bigger than that

[Knightro]

Wow... only 30 posters knightro? I thought our population in this board was bigger than that

Only 27 votes in the last vest thread.

[RookieStar]

Wow... only 30 posters knightro? I thought our population in this board was bigger than that

Only 27 votes in the last vest thread.

Oh my bad... i dont usually vote in the sweater vest lol

[eyriq]

I love drunk eyriq

Drunk eyriq is mesmerized by your avatar

[pepe1991]

By looking at Hawks 2020-21 and Grizzlies 2021-22 season i think some of us have healhy scepticism about overachiving in one year by lot of things working in our favor, that aren't really sustainable long term, and creating false sense that team emerged, by mostly just ignoring weaknesses.

Hawks had crappy defense , had 41-31 record, had whole bunch of lottery picks playing better ( than they turned to be) , with several role players being unusually healthy or in career years. For example , Cam Reddish shot 65% for 3 vs Bucks in ECF and Hunter had great sophmore season, Capela & Bogdan had career years. Capela was 6th in DPOY and looked like top 8-ish C. Bogdan was 2,5% FG below 50-40-90 split and looked like top 10 SG. Oh and Gallinari had unusually healthy year and was probably best streach PF off bench.
Next year, things reverted to normality, and they got trashed in playoffs by Heat in round 1.


Memphis Grizzlies in 2021-22 had 4th best defense and 5th best offense. Whole roster was overachiving and mostly made out of young, hungry players. They passed first round. Lost to Warriors. No big deal. Future is bright.
Next year they have even better defense ( 2# ) but offense starts to slip ( 15). They win less games, go to playoffs, get outclassed in first round by 7th seeded Lakers. Not that they lost, they got trashed in 3 out of 6 games.



Right now we have Suggs having career year, Isaac having first healthy year since 2019, Harris first healthy year in past 4-5 years, Ingles is being big part of our offense at age of 36, Mortiz Wagner is having career year. We have very little to no injuries but Fultz, who's abstence is addition by substraction.
On top of that we are only middle pack team that has been healthy whole year long. Cavs, Knicks, Raptors, Bulls, Pacers, Hawks, Heat, 76ers all deal with way bigger problems. Some of them don't have top 3 players aveliable for near 50+ games.

Driving home conclusion, without taking lot of things in considiration would be dangerous and even dumb. Our record against teams over. 500 is telling. We built our record mostly by beating bad teams and being excellent at it.
Every year there is one team that leapfrogs in regular season, sucks itself into own hype ,and gets kicked in bu** next year. Don't be that team. Make hard decisions based on logic digging deep into weaknesses, not riding high horse thinking you arived.

[SOUL]

Driving home conclusion, without taking lot of things in considiration would be dangerous and even dumb. Our record against teams over. 500 is telling. We built our record mostly by beating bad teams and being excellent at it.
Every year there is one team that leapfrogs in regular season, sucks itself into own hype ,and gets kicked in bu** next year. Don't be that team. Make hard decisions based on logic digging deep into weaknesses, not riding high horse thinking you arived.

Yeah, but as has every good team at the top. Besides Pacers, who decide to suck against under .500 teams for some reason.

We're also 11-11 versus top 10 teams, meaning we struggled the most versus teams in the 11-20 range, like Nets/Hawks/Heat which attribute for 8 losses.

My real argument is, who is blinded by this and saying we shouldn't try to get better and not make any changes? I find very few people are still preaching continuity outside of maybe 5-7 players, while bringing in new guys or even willing to entertain trade talks. Feel like if anything, people are downplaying our team. We're a solid team that can give most teams a run for their money, but when it comes to scoring consistently against better defenses and not turning the ball over, we can get way better. If anything I feel like we have more of a clear blueprint to what can excel us next year while other teams are kind of like "What do we do?" if they lose in the first round - i.e. Cavs.

[RookieStar]

Yeah.. i dont know or have read posters here saying run it back for next season. In fact, almost 100% are saying NOT to pickup the options of gary,jingles and give a retirement watch to Fultz already.

The debate here is WHO we replace them with. Another is probably who to throw the bigger bucks to, the C position or the PG position.

[drsd]

By looking at Hawks 2020-21 and Grizzlies 2021-22 season i think some of us have healhy scepticism about overachiving in one year by lot of things working in our favor, that aren't really sustainable long term, and creating false sense that team emerged, by mostly just ignoring weaknesses.

Hawks had crappy defense , had 41-31 record, had whole bunch of lottery picks playing better ( than they turned to be) , with several role players being unusually healthy or in career years. For example , Cam Reddish shot 65% for 3 vs Bucks in ECF and Hunter had great sophmore season, Capela & Bogdan had career years. Capela was 6th in DPOY and looked like top 8-ish C. Bogdan was 2,5% FG below 50-40-90 split and looked like top 10 SG. Oh and Gallinari had unusually healthy year and was probably best streach PF off bench.
Next year, things reverted to normality, and they got trashed in playoffs by Heat in round 1.


Memphis Grizzlies in 2021-22 had 4th best defense and 5th best offense. Whole roster was overachiving and mostly made out of young, hungry players. They passed first round. Lost to Warriors. No big deal. Future is bright.
Next year they have even better defense ( 2# ) but offense starts to slip ( 15). They win less games, go to playoffs, get outclassed in first round by 7th seeded Lakers. Not that they lost, they got trashed in 3 out of 6 games.



Right now we have Suggs having career year, Isaac having first healthy year since 2019, Harris first healthy year in past 4-5 years, Ingles is being big part of our offense at age of 36, Mortiz Wagner is having career year. We have very little to no injuries but Fultz, who's abstence is addition by substraction.
On top of that we are only middle pack team that has been healthy whole year long. Cavs, Knicks, Raptors, Bulls, Pacers, Hawks, Heat, 76ers all deal with way bigger problems. Some of them don't have top 3 players aveliable for near 50+ games.

Driving home conclusion, without taking lot of things in considiration would be dangerous and even dumb. Our record against teams over. 500 is telling. We built our record mostly by beating bad teams and being excellent at it.
Every year there is one team that leapfrogs in regular season, sucks itself into own hype ,and gets kicked in bu** next year. Don't be that team. Make hard decisions based on logic digging deep into weaknesses, not riding high horse thinking you arived.

To expand: the Magic is currently:

24-6 against sub500 teams and
15-22 against 500 teams.

But at least the Magic has the tie-breaker with the Knicks.


..

[drsd]

The Magic will start an 8-game home-stand. This will largely determine the season standing for seeding.

The ESPN Computers has win odds as:
Toronto .832
Charlotte .864
New Orleans .447
Sacramento .568
Golden State .567
LA Clippers .441
Memphis .743
Portland .773

That sums out to an expectation of a 5-3 record. I would think most here would see anything less than a 6-2 run as "a failure".
Let's see how focused the Magic can be in this key run of games.

[Knightro]

My real argument is, who is blinded by this and saying we shouldn't try to get better and not make any changes? I find very few people are still preaching continuity outside of maybe 5-7 players, while bringing in new guys or even willing to entertain trade talks. Feel like if anything, people are downplaying our team. We're a solid team that can give most teams a run for their money, but when it comes to scoring consistently against better defenses and not turning the ball over, we can get way better. If anything I feel like we have more of a clear blueprint to what can excel us next year while other teams are kind of like "What do we do?" if they lose in the first round - i.e. Cavs.

There are multiple posters who are openly suggesting that the Magic simply need to let their young guys continue to develop (which I agree with) and that adding veteran players at certain positions would actively harm the development of the young players in those spots (which I strongly disagree with).

It took Fultz literally being so bad that he isn’t really even functional for people to finally come to their senses that he can’t return, ya know? Imagine what it would have been like if he wasn’t dealing with whatever physical ailments he had and their record was what it is this year with Markelle playing 70 games at 25 MPG.

If anyone suggested replacing him anyway, people would have squealed like pigs stuck under a gate.

[eyriq]

By looking at Hawks 2020-21 and Grizzlies 2021-22 season i think some of us have healhy scepticism about overachiving in one year by lot of things working in our favor, that aren't really sustainable long term, and creating false sense that team emerged, by mostly just ignoring weaknesses.

Hawks had crappy defense , had 41-31 record, had whole bunch of lottery picks playing better ( than they turned to be) , with several role players being unusually healthy or in career years. For example , Cam Reddish shot 65% for 3 vs Bucks in ECF and Hunter had great sophmore season, Capela & Bogdan had career years. Capela was 6th in DPOY and looked like top 8-ish C. Bogdan was 2,5% FG below 50-40-90 split and looked like top 10 SG. Oh and Gallinari had unusually healthy year and was probably best streach PF off bench.
Next year, things reverted to normality, and they got trashed in playoffs by Heat in round 1.


Memphis Grizzlies in 2021-22 had 4th best defense and 5th best offense. Whole roster was overachiving and mostly made out of young, hungry players. They passed first round. Lost to Warriors. No big deal. Future is bright.
Next year they have even better defense ( 2# ) but offense starts to slip ( 15). They win less games, go to playoffs, get outclassed in first round by 7th seeded Lakers. Not that they lost, they got trashed in 3 out of 6 games.



Right now we have Suggs having career year, Isaac having first healthy year since 2019, Harris first healthy year in past 4-5 years, Ingles is being big part of our offense at age of 36, Mortiz Wagner is having career year. We have very little to no injuries but Fultz, who's abstence is addition by substraction.
On top of that we are only middle pack team that has been healthy whole year long. Cavs, Knicks, Raptors, Bulls, Pacers, Hawks, Heat, 76ers all deal with way bigger problems. Some of them don't have top 3 players aveliable for near 50+ games.

Driving home conclusion, without taking lot of things in considiration would be dangerous and even dumb. Our record against teams over. 500 is telling. We built our record mostly by beating bad teams and being excellent at it.
Every year there is one team that leapfrogs in regular season, sucks itself into own hype ,and gets kicked in bu** next year. Don't be that team. Make hard decisions based on logic digging deep into weaknesses, not riding high horse thinking you arived.

The Hawks are an interesting study. Top three in minutes were Huerter, Young, and Capella. Two 22 year olds and a 26 year old. 8th in offense and 21st in defense. Relative to the league that's their 2nd best offense and best defense over the last 4 seasons. Cam Reddish, Onyeka Okongwu, and De'Andre Hunter were lotto talent with marginal roles. So a mixed bag in terms of player development. The main difference between 21 Hawks and 24 Magic is that we are being led by 3 lotto talents on their rookie deals and the Hawks by just one. The argument that the Magic already have their top 10, top 20, and top 50 players in Paolo, Franz, and Suggs is compelling. The 21 Hawks could not make that case, it was clear they had a lot of moves left to make.

The Memphis parallel is a much better one. Easy to make the case that they've got their core in Morant, JJJ, and Bane.

[basketballRob]

The Magic will start an 8-game home-stand. This will largely determine the season standing for seeding.

The ESPN Computers has win odds as:
Toronto .832
Charlotte .864
New Orleans .447
Sacramento .568
Golden State .567
LA Clippers .441
Memphis .743
Portland .773

That sums out to an expectation of a 5-3 record. I would think most here would see anything less than a 6-2 run as "a failure".
Let's see how focused the Magic can be in this key run of games.

Memphis is on a b2b, and JJJ and Bane are back. Plus, Memphis has 3 days' rest.

Hopefully, we will have at least a 5-3 record during the home stand. We have a really rough stretch after that.

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