POLL: All-Star Break - Final Season Record Prediction

[drsd]

ESPN BPI projects 47 wins and the 5th seed... Wut

At 47 wins, that is a certain 6-to-8-seed. There will be a real cluster between these three slots in particular (Indy, Miami and Orlando). To get to the 4 or 5, NY or Philly needs to collapse (although it is likely one or both will).

My current prediction is that Orlando gets to 49 wins and the 5 seed.

18-8. Let's go!

[drsd]

I'm calling an 8 game winning streak now, ending in NY. Who's with me?

Orlando will be favored in each, so yes let's predict all as wins!

@ Detroit Pistons
@ Atlanta Hawks
Brooklyn Nets
Utah Jazz
Detroit Pistons
@ Charlotte Hornets
@ Washington Wizards


p.s. It would actually be a 9-game streak, as the Magic beat the Knicks on 15 Feb. (Orlando's on a 2-game winning streak now)

[Max Power]

I’m calling 47 wins, seed 5 or 6. I think if we end up playing the Knicks in round 1 we have a real shot at getting into the second round.

[p0peye]

We are not a good team yet to be counting chickens before they hatch. We do have two stars in the making, but other than that current Magic is a team consisting of mostly G League level talent that does not fit well with our young stars.

[zaymon]

We are not a good team yet to be counting chickens before they hatch. We do have two stars in the making, but other than that current Magic is a team consisting of mostly G League level talent that does not fit well with our young stars.

You are not giving enough of respect. Its not g league level, but g league star level.
Its a huge difference, like between averaging 5 and 7 points in the nba.
I expected better from you.

[Jiwol]

I'm calling an 8 game winning streak now, ending in NY. Who's with me?

Orlando will be favored in each, so yes let's predict all as wins!

@ Detroit Pistons
@ Atlanta Hawks
Brooklyn Nets
Utah Jazz
Detroit Pistons
@ Charlotte Hornets
@ Washington Wizards


p.s. It would actually be a 9-game streak, as the Magic beat the Knicks on 15 Feb. (Orlando's on a 2-game winning streak now)

Oh, right, I stand corrected. So let's make it a 9 then. I hope Fultz stays "injured" and the team will repeat their early season run.

[anothermagicfan]

Figured this was a nice chance to review during the break (even though there are a few games tonight). The schedule is quite favorable the rest of the way. 46-48 wins seems likely to me. While 50 is hard to imagine and is a tall order, I think it's possible given the schedule.

We only have 4 back to backs, 15 game are at home (12 on the road), and we have the easiest remaining SOS according to tankathon. 17 games are against teams with worse records.

Current records as of 2/15/2024 listed.
Magic record: 30-25 (.545)
B2B=back to back

2/22 @Cleveland (36-17, .679)
2/24 @Detroit (8-46, .148)
2/25 @Atlanta (B2B) (24-31, .436)
2/27 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
2/29 vs Utah (26-29, .473)
3/3 vs Detroit (8-46, .148)
3/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/6 @ Washington (B2B) (9-45, .167)
3/8 @ NYK (33-22, .600)
3/10 vs Indiana (31-25, .554)
3/13 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
3/15 @ Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/17 vs Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/19 vs Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/21 vs New Orleans (33-22, .600)
3/23 vs Sacramento (31-23, .574)
3/27 vs Golden State (26-26, .500)
3/29 vs LA Clippers (36-17, .679)
3/30 vs Memphis (B2B) (19-36, .345)
4/1 vs Portland (15-38, .283)
4/3 @ New Orleans (33-22, .600)
4/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
4/7 vs Chicago (26-29, .473)
4/9 @ Houston (24-30, .444)
4/10 @ Milwaukee (B2B) (35-20, .636)
4/12 @ Philadelphia (32-22, .593)
4/14 vs Milwaukee (35-20, .636)

It's been a while since I've added any thoughts to the forum but I noticed something I thought was interesting that I didn't see any other comments on. Lots of stuff about strength of schedule being very favorable so far. To add to that we have like a 2 week home stand in Orlando against mostly teams from the western conference. That's a pretty significant rest advantage IMO. To top it off of all the remaining games we travel to the western conference I think 2 times once to new Orleans and once to Houston. This team is talented enough that with this schedule they should be the 4th seed in the east, especially considering injuries to Philadelphia and NY Knicks. Guess it partially depends on how Indiana is with their new additions. Integrating new players together mid season usually comes with some growing pains. We should absolutely be one of the hottest teams to finish the season.

[OrlDave]

5 games down since this was posted, 4 wins and we still have by far the easiest SOS left in the NBA. 9 games remaining against Det, Wash, Det, Portland, Toronto, Charlotte and Memphis. Unfortunately, Miami has the 2nd easiest, probably not going to catch them, but you never know.

https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

[drsd]

5 games down since this was posted, 4 wins and we still have by far the easiest SOS left in the NBA. 9 games remaining against Det, Wash, Det, Portland, Toronto, Charlotte and Memphis. Unfortunately, Miami has the 2nd easiest, probably not going to catch them, but you never know.

https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

The Magic is currently winning at a .567 clip and has opponents at a .440 clip, that leads to an expected 14 win total over the last 22 games, and a 48-34 seasonal record.

[jezzerinho]

Those last 3 games could be very intense viewing.

[Mad Guru]

5 games down since this was posted, 4 wins and we still have by far the easiest SOS left in the NBA. 9 games remaining against Det, Wash, Det, Portland, Toronto, Charlotte and Memphis. Unfortunately, Miami has the 2nd easiest, probably not going to catch them, but you never know.

https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

They already "caught" Miami

[drsd]

5 games down since this was posted, 4 wins and we still have by far the easiest SOS left in the NBA. 9 games remaining against Det, Wash, Det, Portland, Toronto, Charlotte and Memphis. Unfortunately, Miami has the 2nd easiest, probably not going to catch them, but you never know.

https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

They already "caught" Miami

Miami won against the Jazz, and as the Magic must have more wins with the Heat having the tie-breaker, the Pistons game is a really important game for Orlando to win. The Magic must maintain this +1 W win line!

[eyriq]

Just curious, why do you have @Charlotte games as toss ups? It's on the road, but Charlotte is awful. Same with @Washington? Matchup issues you don't like? Just curious what you were factoring in between likely vs toss up.

I consider disadvantages to be having a worse win rate, being on the road, and being on a b2b.

With Charlotte we are on the road and I give them a bump above their actual win rate. With Washington we are on the road and on a B2B.

That's how I was thinking about it.

Edit: oh, and if the win rate is way below ours and we otherwise have only one disadvantage I give us the edge.

I just don't think Charlotte at this point even wants to win. Right now they are 4th worst, I'd imagine they'd love to fall back to 3rd. That said, the organization may want one thing and the players may want something else, so you never know.

You were right

[JoshuaPotter]

I consider disadvantages to be having a worse win rate, being on the road, and being on a b2b.

With Charlotte we are on the road and I give them a bump above their actual win rate. With Washington we are on the road and on a B2B.

That's how I was thinking about it.

Edit: oh, and if the win rate is way below ours and we otherwise have only one disadvantage I give us the edge.

I just don't think Charlotte at this point even wants to win. Right now they are 4th worst, I'd imagine they'd love to fall back to 3rd. That said, the organization may want one thing and the players may want something else, so you never know.

You were right

I don't know. I was only in on the radio but it sounded like Charlotte wanted to win. They just couldn't in the end.

When Brandon makes the sophomore bounce. Look out.

[JoshuaPotter]

Looking it over I think there are 10 likely wins, 11 toss ups, and 6 likely losses. Lets say we split the toss ups, that is 45/46 wins.
3/6 @ Washington (B2B) (9-45, .167)
3/8 @ NYK (33-22, .600)
3/10 vs Indiana (31-25, .554)
3/13 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
3/15 @ Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/17 vs Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/19 vs Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/21 vs New Orleans (33-22, .600)
3/23 vs Sacramento (31-23, .574)
3/27 vs Golden State (26-26, .500)
3/29 vs LA Clippers (36-17, .679)
3/30 vs Memphis (B2B) (19-36, .345)
4/1 vs Portland (15-38, .283)
4/3 @ New Orleans (33-22, .600)
4/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
4/7 vs Chicago (26-29, .473)
4/9 @ Houston (24-30, .444)
4/10 @ Milwaukee (B2B) (35-20, .636)
4/12 @ Philadelphia (32-22, .593)
4/14 vs Milwaukee (35-20, .636)

Winning one of the six likely loses is noice

12 home games. Winning all 12 puts us at 48.

8 away games, just got to go 2-6. Doable

Plausible.

edit : tired math

[eyriq]

5-0 in likely wins
2-1 in tossups
1-2 in likely loses

OVERACHIEVING BABY

[JoshuaPotter]

5-0 in likely wins
2-1 in tossups
1-2 in likely loses

OVERACHIEVING BABY

3/15 @ Toronto (19-36, .345) - 38
3/17 vs Toronto (19-36, .345) - 39
3/19 vs Charlotte (13-41, .241) - 40
3/21 vs New Orleans (33-22, .600) -41
3/23 vs Sacramento (31-23, .574) - 42
3/27 vs Golden State (26-26, .500) - 43
3/29 vs LA Clippers (36-17, .679) -L
3/30 vs Memphis (B2B) (19-36, .345) - 44
4/1 vs Portland (15-38, .283) - 45
4/3 @ New Orleans (33-22, .600) - L
4/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241) - 47
4/7 vs Chicago (26-29, .473) - 48
4/9 @ Houston (24-30, .444) - 49
4/10 @ Milwaukee (B2B) (35-20, .636) - L
4/12 @ Philadelphia (32-22, .593) - L
4/14 vs Milwaukee (35-20, .636) - 50

I believe.....

[drsd]

Orlando is currently winning at 0.576 and opponents over the final 16 are at 0.473. That equates to a predicted 10 wins to close out the season, and a 48-34 record.

The coming 8-game home-stand is going to be VERY informative.

p.s. the Knicks ha a brutal 3-game road trip coming. A focused Magic should soon be back in to the #4 seed.

[ogmagicfan]

40-28 now.

Can the Magic win 10 of their last 14 to finish with a 50 win season?

[eyriq]

Orlando is currently winning at 0.576 and opponents over the final 16 are at 0.473. That equates to a predicted 10 wins to close out the season, and a 48-34 record.

The coming 8-game home-stand is going to be VERY informative.

p.s. the Knicks ha a brutal 3-game road trip coming. A focused Magic should soon be back in to the #4 seed.

48 should be enough for the 4th seed.