POLL: All-Star Break - Final Season Record Prediction

[basketballRob]

I was thinking 46 wins and the 6th seed.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[RookieStar]

Oh and my vote was 45 wins realistically.

Optimistically its 48
Pepe-istically itl be 42

[eyriq]

Me and Joshua gonna feast on street cred when the Magic win 50+

Nom nom nom

[Optimus_Steel]

Realistic I’m going to say 16-11. There’s still tough games there unless bad teams truly just mail it in or good teams go all in on resting players.

[eyriq]

Right now our win rate is .545. Maintaining this would put us at 45 wins, closing out 15-12.

But we have an interesting piece of evidence that we are actually better than a .545 team; the 9 game win streak. Strong teams win 9 games in a row. Teams that win 9 games in a row can be expected to have a true win rate between .600 and .700 according to Dean Oliver, roughly speaking.

This would put us finishing with between 46 to 49 wins.

And considering the strength of schedule is light and we are healthy we could exceed our underlying true win rate.

The main problem with this is that it indicates that we've underachieved our true win rate so far. The main factors explaining this under achievement would be injuries and an abnormally tough strength of schedule.

[otownflava21]

If the Magic maintain the course have the same record for the next 27 games as they did for the last 27 games (13-14) they will finish 43-39.

[CocoaFan]

For the 56% that voted the Magic will win 45 games or less you realize that's a 15-12 (56%) record to finish the season and we've got the easiest schedule in the league going forward and are 30-25 (55%) playing one of the hardest schedules and having tons of injuries?

[RookieStar]

For the 56% that voted the Magic will win 45 games or less you realize that's a 15-12 (56%) record to finish the season and we've got the easiest schedule in the league going forward and are 30-25 (55%) playing one of the hardest schedules and having tons of injuries?

AND you expect us to have injury-free players all the way to the POs? We are hedging our bets.

As long time fans of this team, we know injuries.

[drsd]

Looking it over I think there are 10 likely wins, 11 toss ups, and 6 likely losses. Lets say we split the toss ups, that is 45/46 wins.

Likely Wins
Toss Ups
Likely Losses


2/22 @Cleveland (36-17, .679)
2/24 @Detroit (8-46, .148)
2/25 @Atlanta (B2B) (24-31, .436)
2/27 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
2/29 vs Utah (26-29, .473)
3/3 vs Detroit (8-46, .148)
3/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/6 @ Washington (B2B) (9-45, .167)
3/8 @ NYK (33-22, .600)
3/10 vs Indiana (31-25, .554)
3/13 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
3/15 @ Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/17 vs Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/19 vs Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/21 vs New Orleans (33-22, .600)
3/23 vs Sacramento (31-23, .574)
3/27 vs Golden State (26-26, .500)
3/29 vs LA Clippers (36-17, .679)
3/30 vs Memphis (B2B) (19-36, .345)
4/1 vs Portland (15-38, .283)
4/3 @ New Orleans (33-22, .600)
4/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
4/7 vs Chicago (26-29, .473)
4/9 @ Houston (24-30, .444)
4/10 @ Milwaukee (B2B) (35-20, .636)
4/12 @ Philadelphia (32-22, .593)
4/14 vs Milwaukee (35-20, .636)

And-1

The computers create odds that land on a 47-win rate. And your analysis point's that this passes the eye-candy test as well.

I voted 46. Being an anti-Homer to ant-Jinx it.

[drsd]

For the 56% that voted the Magic will win 45 games or less you realize that's a 15-12 (56%) record to finish the season and we've got the easiest schedule in the league going forward and are 30-25 (55%) playing one of the hardest schedules and having tons of injuries?

Here's one way at looking at this. Orlando at 54.5% playing 44% to close out 27 games sums to 17 wins and 10 losses, or a 47-35 final record. That's the maths. (Working this out in reverse, Orlando should win 63% of their final 27, based on this logic).

p.s. that's nearly certain to be the 6th seed, by the way.



Expanded
i) Orlando would win 54.5% of its games against a 50% final 27, which is 15 games
ii) Orlando's final games at .44 means that gets a .50/.44 = 1.136 multiplier, which is 17 wins

There other ways to more correctly get this down to small decimal places, but one always lands to 17.something wins in all stats in this. The two assumptions in this, either can be flawed though. i) Orlando "is" a 54.5% win team. That could be flawed as past record need not relate to expected, future performance (indeed the Magic might be expected to be better than a 54% roster, if healthy). and ii) that the 44% will be playing that poorly. Subjectively, that number could go either way. I think it might be an over estimate as some of the late season games, the 1-4 seeds will rest players and the Magic will play guns-blazing to stay out of the play-in seedings. The two late Bucks and late Sixers games stand out in that.

[drsd]

Me and Joshua gonna feast on street cred when the Magic win 50+

Nom nom nom

[CocoaFan]

For the 56% that voted the Magic will win 45 games or less you realize that's a 15-12 (56%) record to finish the season and we've got the easiest schedule in the league going forward and are 30-25 (55%) playing one of the hardest schedules and having tons of injuries?

AND you expect us to have injury-free players all the way to the POs? We are hedging our bets.

As long time fans of this team, we know injuries.

Ye of little faith

[Residual-Heat]

Was just reflecting on how things have gone so far..

Paolo plays for team USA.
Franz and Mo play for team Germany and win the gold.
Suggs proves he can shoot the 3, and looks to be part of the core now.
Isaac gets healthy, and proves he's still very effective.
Both Franz and Paolo improve on their biggest weaknesses. Paolo with his shooting and Franz with his rebounding.
The Magic are in the play off race at the allstar break and are on pace to win 44+ games, and Paolo makes the all-star team

I wish we made better moves in the offseason/trade deadline, but all in all things are going well.

[eyriq]

The two assumptions in this, either can be flawed though. i) Orlando "is" a 54.5% win team. That could be flawed as past record need not relate to expected, future performance (indeed the Magic might be expected to be better than a 54% roster, if healthy).

I've been thinking about this and actually think the 9 game win streak is evidence that we are better than a .545 win team. Given a 9 game win streak the expected team win percentage is .640. A .545 win team would fall in the 14.7 percentile of that distribution. Not unlikely, but it's more likely we are closer to a .640 win team than a .500 win team.

[RookieStar]

For the 56% that voted the Magic will win 45 games or less you realize that's a 15-12 (56%) record to finish the season and we've got the easiest schedule in the league going forward and are 30-25 (55%) playing one of the hardest schedules and having tons of injuries?

AND you expect us to have injury-free players all the way to the POs? We are hedging our bets.

As long time fans of this team, we know injuries.

Ye of little faith

Correction : Ye a Magic fan

[drsd]

The two assumptions in this, either can be flawed though. i) Orlando "is" a 54.5% win team. That could be flawed as past record need not relate to expected, future performance (indeed the Magic might be expected to be better than a 54% roster, if healthy).

I've been thinking about this and actually think the 9 game win streak is evidence that we are better than a .545 win team. Given a 9 game win streak the expected team win percentage is .640. A .545 win team would fall in the 14.7 percentile of that distribution. Not unlikely, but it's more likely we are closer to a .640 win team than a .500 win team.

And-1

And I think the 44% is soft in that Orlando's final opponents are actually "worse" than that. There will be a lot of games late where Orlando will be trying to win and the opponent either trying to lose (i.e. tanking clubs) or not playing normal starters (i.e. load management for the playoffs).

If we say that Orlando will be like a 60% team for the final 27 and the opponents like 42% for this, then that sums to 19 wins in the final 27 (i.e. a 70% win rate). That is my Homer answer: a 49-33 season. And I do believe that is doable! And that's the 4 or 5 seed, by the way.

..

[paperboymafia]

my gut says 44-45
heart says 47-48

[drsd]

my gut says 44-45
heart says 47-48

44 means 14 wins in 27 games. For that 44W, that means a 14W-13L run to close out the season. As Orlando has a combined opponent record of 0.435, that means you see Orlando as the equivalent of a 45.1% team over these 27 games.

For 48, that is a 18W-9L, which is the equivalent of a 58% win rate.

My thoughts: it would be tough for Orlando to only win 44 games this season. Even a major injury and the Magic probably still get to 44. But 48 wins is better than the Magic has been this season. So, this 44-to-48 is probably a good range for Orlando to land on Wins wise. That's an expectation from the 4-7 seed.

[drsd]

BOS
MIL
CLE
NYK
PHI
IND
ORL
MIA
CHI
ATL

Playin we face CHI while MIA faces ATL??

I dunno... something something tells me thisbis what will happen

Remaining Schedule Strength:
Boston has weak - 28th hardest at .463
Milwaukee has strong - 3rd hardest at .534
Cleveland at mid - 15th at .503
New York at mid - 14 at .504
Philadelphia at strong - 9th at .515
Indiana mid - 19th at .495
Orlando at weak - 30th at .435
Miami at weak - 27th at .464
Chicago at mid - 17th at .499
Atlanta at mid - 16th at .502

And for completeness
Brooklyn has weak - 29th at .460
Toronto has weak - 22nd at .488

For Orlando, one might conclude from only considerations of strength of schedule, that at least the 8 seed is a lock and that the Magic is more likely to catch the Sixers than the Pacers. So the range would be from 5 to 8. That's a seeding range were the Magic must play each game hard.

The absolute best the Magic can hope for is the 4-seed and the worst is 9-seed. That range seems to be in stone at this point.

[eyriq]

BOS
MIL
CLE
NYK
PHI
IND
ORL
MIA
CHI
ATL

Playin we face CHI while MIA faces ATL??

I dunno... something something tells me thisbis what will happen

Remaining Schedule Strength:
Boston has weak - 28th hardest at .463
Milwaukee has strong - 3rd hardest at .534
Cleveland at mid - 15th at .503
New York at mid - 14 at .504
Philadelphia at strong - 9th at .515
Indiana mid - 19th at .495
Orlando at weak - 30th at .435
Miami at weak - 27th at .464
Chicago at mid - 17th at .499
Atlanta at mid - 16th at .502

And for completeness
Brooklyn has weak - 29th at .460
Toronto has weak - 22nd at .488

For Orlando, one might conclude from only considerations of strength of schedule, that at least the 8 seed is a lock and that the Magic is more likely to catch the Sixers than the Pacers. So the range would be from 5 to 8. That's a seeding range were the Magic must play each game hard.

The absolute best the Magic can hope for is the 4-seed and the worst is 9-seed. That range seems to be in stone at this point.

Conclusion: we about to end the season IN STYLE

hype about to reach unreal levels