POLL: All-Star Break - Final Season Record Prediction

[UCFJayBird]

Figured this was a nice chance to review during the break (even though there are a few games tonight). The schedule is quite favorable the rest of the way. 46-48 wins seems likely to me. While 50 is hard to imagine and is a tall order, I think it's possible given the schedule.

We only have 4 back to backs, 15 game are at home (12 on the road), and we have the easiest remaining SOS according to tankathon. 17 games are against teams with worse records.

Current records as of 2/15/2024 listed.
Magic record: 30-25 (.545)
B2B=back to back

2/22 @Cleveland (36-17, .679)
2/24 @Detroit (8-46, .148)
2/25 @Atlanta (B2B) (24-31, .436)
2/27 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
2/29 vs Utah (26-29, .473)
3/3 vs Detroit (8-46, .148)
3/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/6 @ Washington (B2B) (9-45, .167)
3/8 @ NYK (33-22, .600)
3/10 vs Indiana (31-25, .554)
3/13 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
3/15 @ Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/17 vs Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/19 vs Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/21 vs New Orleans (33-22, .600)
3/23 vs Sacramento (31-23, .574)
3/27 vs Golden State (26-26, .500)
3/29 vs LA Clippers (36-17, .679)
3/30 vs Memphis (B2B) (19-36, .345)
4/1 vs Portland (15-38, .283)
4/3 @ New Orleans (33-22, .600)
4/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
4/7 vs Chicago (26-29, .473)
4/9 @ Houston (24-30, .444)
4/10 @ Milwaukee (B2B) (35-20, .636)
4/12 @ Philadelphia (32-22, .593)
4/14 vs Milwaukee (35-20, .636)

[Knightro]

Figured this was a nice chance to review during the break (even though there are a few games tonight). The schedule is quite favorable the rest of the way. 46-48 wins seems likely to me. While 50 is hard to imagine and is a tall order, I think it's possible given the schedule.

We only have 4 back to backs, 15 game are at home (12 on the road), and we have the easiest remaining SOS according to tankathon. 17 games are against teams with worse records.

Current records as of 2/15/2024 listed.
Magic record: 30-25 (.545)
B2B=back to back

2/22 @Cleveland (36-17, .679)
2/24 @Detroit (8-46, .148)
2/25 @Atlanta (B2B) (24-31, .436)
2/27 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
2/29 vs Utah (26-29, .473)
3/3 vs Detroit (8-46, .148)
3/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/6 @ Washington (B2B) (9-45, .167)
3/8 @ NYK (33-22, .600)
3/10 vs Indiana (31-25, .554)
3/13 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
3/15 @ Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/17 vs Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/19 vs Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/21 vs New Orleans (33-22, .600)
3/23 vs Sacramento (31-23, .574)
3/27 vs Golden State (26-26, .500)
3/29 vs LA Clippers (36-17, .679)
3/30 vs Memphis (B2B) (19-36, .345)
4/1 vs Portland (15-38, .283)
4/3 @ New Orleans (33-22, .600)
4/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
4/7 vs Chicago (26-29, .473)
4/9 @ Houston (24-30, .444)
4/10 @ Milwaukee (B2B) (35-20, .636)
4/12 @ Philadelphia (32-22, .593)
4/14 vs Milwaukee (35-20, .636)

Perhaps an unpopular opinion, but I'll say a 14-13 finish, 44 wins overall.

[eyriq]

I'm all in on 50+. Seems the market has us around 45/46 wins, with 50+ very unlikely. There are plenty of concerns but Isaac is trending up and will increasingly have an impact on winning. I'm effectively betting on JI exceeding 25 mpg on the reg. Also, Cole is starting to bounce back. 11 game winning streak at some point, book it.

[eyriq]

The crazy thing about 50+ is that we have to be the hottest team in the association to finish the season. LET'S GO!

Edit:
Like an .800 win rate. Beast mode

[OrlDave]

All this is barring health ofc, but considering we have one of the easier schedules left in the league AND we seem to be relatively healthy, I will guess we do a bit better than our 54.54% in the first 55 games. If we win 60% we would go 16-11 which would be 46 wins. I think that's a pretty conservative guess if we continue to stay healthy (I cannot underline that enough).

Edit:
Looking at the remaining games we have...

Bad (under 20 wins) 10 games:
Detroit
Detroit
Washington
Charlotte
Charlotte
Charlotte
Portland
Memphis
Toronto
Toronto

Below Average to Average (20 to 26 wins) 7 games:
Brooklyn
Brooklyn
Atlanta
Houston
Chicago
Utah
Golden State

Good (26 to 33 wins) 6 games:
Indiana
Sacramento
NYK
New Orleans
New Orleans
Philly

Great (34+ wins) 4 games:
Milwaukee
Milwaukee
LAC
Cleveland

We should win most/all the bad category. In 6 of those games they are actively trying to lose and you could make the case the other 4 aren't super interesting in winning either. The Below Average category is tough. We *should* win most of those games but we've struggled with Brooklyn early and Atlanta (although they've all been close). Chicago has gone the opposite as Atlanta, all close, but wins. I could see us winning as many as all or as few as half of these. I think 16 is reasonable and probably a bit low.

[eyriq]

Looking it over I think there are 10 likely wins, 11 toss ups, and 6 likely losses. Lets say we split the toss ups, that is 45/46 wins.

Likely Wins
Toss Ups
Likely Losses


2/22 @Cleveland (36-17, .679)
2/24 @Detroit (8-46, .148)
2/25 @Atlanta (B2B) (24-31, .436)
2/27 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
2/29 vs Utah (26-29, .473)
3/3 vs Detroit (8-46, .148)
3/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/6 @ Washington (B2B) (9-45, .167)
3/8 @ NYK (33-22, .600)
3/10 vs Indiana (31-25, .554)
3/13 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
3/15 @ Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/17 vs Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/19 vs Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/21 vs New Orleans (33-22, .600)
3/23 vs Sacramento (31-23, .574)
3/27 vs Golden State (26-26, .500)
3/29 vs LA Clippers (36-17, .679)
3/30 vs Memphis (B2B) (19-36, .345)
4/1 vs Portland (15-38, .283)
4/3 @ New Orleans (33-22, .600)
4/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
4/7 vs Chicago (26-29, .473)
4/9 @ Houston (24-30, .444)
4/10 @ Milwaukee (B2B) (35-20, .636)
4/12 @ Philadelphia (32-22, .593)
4/14 vs Milwaukee (35-20, .636)

[JoshuaPotter]

The crazy thing about 50+ is that we have to be the hottest team in the association to finish the season. LET'S GO!

Edit:
Like an .800 win rate. Beast mode

By my calculations we will win the next 24 games in a row.....breaking the record. (That is the record right?)

I'm all in on 50+ though. There is a chance still.

[UCFJayBird]

Looking it over I think there are 10 likely wins, 11 toss ups, and 6 likely losses. Lets say we split the toss ups, that is 45/46 wins.

Likely Wins
Toss Ups
Likely Losses


2/22 @Cleveland (36-17, .679)
2/24 @Detroit (8-46, .148)
2/25 @Atlanta (B2B) (24-31, .436)
2/27 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
2/29 vs Utah (26-29, .473)
3/3 vs Detroit (8-46, .148)
3/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/6 @ Washington (B2B) (9-45, .167)
3/8 @ NYK (33-22, .600)
3/10 vs Indiana (31-25, .554)
3/13 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
3/15 @ Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/17 vs Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/19 vs Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/21 vs New Orleans (33-22, .600)
3/23 vs Sacramento (31-23, .574)
3/27 vs Golden State (26-26, .500)
3/29 vs LA Clippers (36-17, .679)
3/30 vs Memphis (B2B) (19-36, .345)
4/1 vs Portland (15-38, .283)
4/3 @ New Orleans (33-22, .600)
4/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
4/7 vs Chicago (26-29, .473)
4/9 @ Houston (24-30, .444)
4/10 @ Milwaukee (B2B) (35-20, .636)
4/12 @ Philadelphia (32-22, .593)
4/14 vs Milwaukee (35-20, .636)

Just curious, why do you have @Charlotte games as toss ups? It's on the road, but Charlotte is awful. Same with @Washington? Matchup issues you don't like? Just curious what you were factoring in between likely vs toss up.

[eyriq]

Looking it over I think there are 10 likely wins, 11 toss ups, and 6 likely losses. Lets say we split the toss ups, that is 45/46 wins.

Likely Wins
Toss Ups
Likely Losses


2/22 @Cleveland (36-17, .679)
2/24 @Detroit (8-46, .148)
2/25 @Atlanta (B2B) (24-31, .436)
2/27 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
2/29 vs Utah (26-29, .473)
3/3 vs Detroit (8-46, .148)
3/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/6 @ Washington (B2B) (9-45, .167)
3/8 @ NYK (33-22, .600)
3/10 vs Indiana (31-25, .554)
3/13 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
3/15 @ Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/17 vs Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/19 vs Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/21 vs New Orleans (33-22, .600)
3/23 vs Sacramento (31-23, .574)
3/27 vs Golden State (26-26, .500)
3/29 vs LA Clippers (36-17, .679)
3/30 vs Memphis (B2B) (19-36, .345)
4/1 vs Portland (15-38, .283)
4/3 @ New Orleans (33-22, .600)
4/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
4/7 vs Chicago (26-29, .473)
4/9 @ Houston (24-30, .444)
4/10 @ Milwaukee (B2B) (35-20, .636)
4/12 @ Philadelphia (32-22, .593)
4/14 vs Milwaukee (35-20, .636)

Just curious, why do you have @Charlotte games as toss ups? It's on the road, but Charlotte is awful. Same with @Washington? Matchup issues you don't like? Just curious what you were factoring in between likely vs toss up.

I consider disadvantages to be having a worse win rate, being on the road, and being on a b2b.

With Charlotte we are on the road and I give them a bump above their actual win rate. With Washington we are on the road and on a B2B.

That's how I was thinking about it.

Edit: oh, and if the win rate is way below ours and we otherwise have only one disadvantage I give us the edge.

[OrlDave]

Looking it over I think there are 10 likely wins, 11 toss ups, and 6 likely losses. Lets say we split the toss ups, that is 45/46 wins.

Likely Wins
Toss Ups
Likely Losses


2/22 @Cleveland (36-17, .679)
2/24 @Detroit (8-46, .148)
2/25 @Atlanta (B2B) (24-31, .436)
2/27 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
2/29 vs Utah (26-29, .473)
3/3 vs Detroit (8-46, .148)
3/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/6 @ Washington (B2B) (9-45, .167)
3/8 @ NYK (33-22, .600)
3/10 vs Indiana (31-25, .554)
3/13 vs Brooklyn (21-33, .389)
3/15 @ Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/17 vs Toronto (19-36, .345)
3/19 vs Charlotte (13-41, .241)
3/21 vs New Orleans (33-22, .600)
3/23 vs Sacramento (31-23, .574)
3/27 vs Golden State (26-26, .500)
3/29 vs LA Clippers (36-17, .679)
3/30 vs Memphis (B2B) (19-36, .345)
4/1 vs Portland (15-38, .283)
4/3 @ New Orleans (33-22, .600)
4/5 @ Charlotte (13-41, .241)
4/7 vs Chicago (26-29, .473)
4/9 @ Houston (24-30, .444)
4/10 @ Milwaukee (B2B) (35-20, .636)
4/12 @ Philadelphia (32-22, .593)
4/14 vs Milwaukee (35-20, .636)

Just curious, why do you have @Charlotte games as toss ups? It's on the road, but Charlotte is awful. Same with @Washington? Matchup issues you don't like? Just curious what you were factoring in between likely vs toss up.

I consider disadvantages to be having a worse win rate, being on the road, and being on a b2b.

With Charlotte we are on the road and I give them a bump above their actual win rate. With Washington we are on the road and on a B2B.

That's how I was thinking about it.

Edit: oh, and if the win rate is way below ours and we otherwise have only one disadvantage I give us the edge.

I just don't think Charlotte at this point even wants to win. Right now they are 4th worst, I'd imagine they'd love to fall back to 3rd. That said, the organization may want one thing and the players may want something else, so you never know.

[3ddman23]

With the ease of schedule they could realistically make up some major ground but I'm going to go conservative and say:

43 wins 8th seed

Close out the season 13-14

But again if they lock in and take of the teams that they should beat they could easily win 17-20 of these games to close out the season. I just dont know if they will take care of all these bad teams. They are bound to drop a few.

[RookieStar]

We have been luck we are injury-free the last few games (knock on wood) but i expect we shut down our core the last week before playin/playoffs

[RichCollab]

16 wins giving us back to back years we improved by 12 wins.

[orlando_joe]

i go 15 wins so 45 total..go magic!

[SOUL]

I just don't think Charlotte at this point even wants to win. Right now they are 4th worst, I'd imagine they'd love to fall back to 3rd. That said, the organization may want one thing and the players may want something else, so you never know.

They are on a 3 game win streak since the trade getting back a lot of shooters/vets, and LaMelo might be back. I feel like those teams give us trouble lol.

[SOUL]

We have been luck we are injury-free the last few games (knock on wood) but i expect we shut down our core the last week before playin/playoffs

.. why exactly? That's only possible if we're like the 3rd seed and a lot of games up, which we certainly won't be.

[RookieStar]

We have been luck we are injury-free the last few games (knock on wood) but i expect we shut down our core the last week before playin/playoffs

.. why exactly? That's only possible if we're like the 3rd seed and a lot of games up, which we certainly won't be.

Something in my head tells me we accept our fate as the 7th seed. Meaning we face a play-in challenge against the Bulls probably.

[SOUL]

.. why exactly? That's only possible if we're like the 3rd seed and a lot of games up, which we certainly won't be.

Something in my head tells me we accept our fate as the 7th seed. Meaning we face a play-in challenge against the Bulls probably.[/quote]

Yeah, I see it being competitive all season so I don't think we can rest anyone.. that's for the top seeds, not the play-ins lol.

Bulls are 9th right now so that would mean Pacers/Heat or someone drops out lower.

[Max Power]

I’m gonna try to show some optimism here. I’m gonna say 17 wins. 47 overall. This is the time of year playoff teams take care of business to lock in their playoff seeds. The Magic need to learn this so no better time than now. If they lock in, stay healthy and handle the teams they’re supposed to beat with a couple upsets they’ll reach 47.

[RookieStar]

.. why exactly? That's only possible if we're like the 3rd seed and a lot of games up, which we certainly won't be.

Something in my head tells me we accept our fate as the 7th seed. Meaning we face a play-in challenge against the Bulls probably.

Yeah, I see it being competitive all season so I don't think we can rest anyone.. that's for the top seeds, not the play-ins lol.

Bulls are 9th right now so that would mean Pacers/Heat or someone drops out lower.[/quote]

BOS
MIL
CLE
NYK
PHI
IND
ORL
MIA
CHI
ATL

Playin we face CHI while MIA faces ATL??

I dunno... something something tells me thisbis what will happen