Orlando Magic EPM Update 3/20/24

[Knightro]

Total EPM (489 players ranked)
Franz Wagner +3.3, 34th
Jalen Suggs +3.0, 39th
Jonathan Isaac +2.9, 41st
Goga Bitadze +2.0, 64th
Wendell Carter +2.0, 66th
Moritz Wagner +1.1, 92nd
Paolo Banchero +0.8, 106th
Gary Harris -1.3, 227th
Joe Ingles -1.9, 255th
Cole Anthony -2.0, 257th
Anthony Black -2.6, 301st
Caleb Houstan -2.7, 314th
Markelle Fultz -3.7, 377th
Chuma Okeke -5.0, 440th

Offensive EPM (489 players ranked)
Moritz Wagner +1.5, 64th
Franz Wagner +1.0, 79th
Paolo Banchero +0.9, 86th
Wendell Carter +0.5, 103rd
Jalen Suggs +0.2, 116th
Goga Bitadze −0.2, 156th
Jonathan Isaac −0.9, 203rd
Joe Ingles −1.1, 217th
Cole Anthony −1.2, 230th
Gary Harris −1.4, 253rd
Caleb Houstan −1.8, 292nd
Markelle Fultz −3.3, 404th
Anthony Black −3.7, 433rd
Chuma Okeke −4.1, 453rd

Defensive EPM (489 players ranked)
Jonathan Isaac +3.8, 2nd
Jalen Suggs +2.7, 12th
Goga Bitadze +2.3, 27th
Franz Wagner +2.2, 31st
Wendell Carter +1.5, 50th
Anthony Black +1.1, 84th
Gary Harris +0.1, 161st
Paolo Banchero −0.1, 186th
Moritz Wagner −0.4, 222nd
Markelle Fultz −0.4, 224nd
Cole Anthony −0.8, 280th
Chuma Okeke −0.9, 291st
Caleb Houstan −0.9, 293rd
Joe Ingles −0.9, 294th

Estimated Wins Added (489 players ranked)
Franz Wagner 8.4, 27th
Jalen Suggs 6.6, 50th
Paolo Banchero 5.9, 61st
Wendell Carter 3.7, 95th
Moritz Wagner 3.4, 113th
Goga Bitadze 3.1,127th
Jonathan Isaac 2.8, 139th
Gary Harris 1.1, 217th
Cole Anthony 1.0, 226th
Joe Ingles 0.6, 250th
Anthony Black 0.2, 279th
Caleb Houstan 0.1, 299th
Markelle Fultz −0.3, 433rd
Chuma Okeke −0.6 458th

[GelbeWand09]

When Franz 3 Point shot comes back & he upgrades his middy game a bit, he still got a not unrealistic path to become a top 20-25 player.
He is probably the most unknown very good 2 way player in the leaque, because almost no one knows he is a very good defender.

Fultz.... Every Minute he gets in the Playoff is selfsabotage.

The ''highly overpaid, super overrated, too small, bad defender'' Van Fleet btw 21 and +4.1. Yea he would have been a really bad signing (or trade at last years deadline) for us. At least we have Fultz instead.

[drsd]

When Franz 3 Point shot comes back & he upgrades his middy game a bit, he still got a not unrealistic path to become a top 20-25 player.
He is probably the most unknown very good 2 way player in the leaque, because almost no one knows he is a very good defender.

Fultz.... Every Minute he gets in the Playoff is selfsabotage.

The ''highly overpaid, super overrated, too small, bad defender'' Van Fleet btw 21 and +4.1. Yea he would have been a really bad signing (or trade at last years deadline) for us. At least we have Fultz instead.

Ich stimme jedem Wort zu !

[JoshuaPotter]

Thoughts at a glance :
Paolo almost a two way player!
I expected Ingles to be higher offensively.
Goga not as bad as he seems on both ends.
Wendel vs Goga has Wendel winning the win share category. Interesting.
Why are we playing Fultz over Black?

[eyriq]

Paolo is above average offensively and average defensively? Believable. Given his role (#1 option, most minutes) should we be impressed?

Does this already control for his role as the #1 since #1 options get more defensive attention?

This says he's third in win shares behind Franz and Suggs? Close enough, not egregious.

Anthony Black is 84th on defense so this is already a banger.

Unleash JI

[Knightro]

This season's EPM rankings for possible Magic free agency targets...

Isaiah Hartenstein
−0.0 Offensive EPM (142nd)
+4.2 Defensive EPM (1st)
+4.2 Total EPM (20th)

Jrue Holiday
+0.6 Offensive EPM (95th)
+1.3 Defensive EPM (63rd)
+1.9 Total EPM (68th)

D'Angelo Russell
+2.8 Offensive EPM (32nd)
−1.2 Defensive EPM (371st)
+1.6 Total EPM (80th)

Buddy Hield
+1.1 Offensive EPM (77th)
−0.8 Defensive EPM (287th)
+0.2 Total EPM (129th)

Klay Thompson
+0.9 Offensive EPM (87th)
−0.9 Defensive EPM (297th)
-0.0 Total EPM (151st)

Malik Monk
+1.2 Offensive EPM (72nd)
−1.2 Defensive EPM (361st)
−0.0 Total EPM (152nd)

Grayson Allen
+1.2 Offensive EPM (71st)
−1.4 Defensive EPM (390th)
−0.1 Total EPM (158th)

Nic Claxton
−1.2 Offensive EPM (229th)
+0.6 Defensive EPM (123rd)
−0.6 Total EPM (181st)

Gary Trent Jr.
−0.5 Offensive EPM (174th)
−0.1 Defensive EPM (190th)
−0.7 Total EPM (187th)

Tyus Jones
+1.5 Offensive EPM (65th)
−2.3 Defensive EPM (467th)
−0.8 Total EPM (193rd)

Bruce Brown
−0.9 Offensive EPM (202nd)
−0.8 Defensive EPM (283rd)
−1.7 Total EPM (246th)

[OrlChamps2030]

Our 5 best guards combine for a putrid offensive EPM. This has to change

Cole is a dumpster fire this year

Okeke is China bound?

[Knightro]

Our 5 best guards combine for a putrid offensive EPM. This has to change

Cole is a dumpster fire this year

Okeke is China bound?

You pretty much nailed why I'm encouraged about the future of this basketball team.

They're cruising towards somewhere between 45 and 50 wins with glaringly obvious weak spots (Fultz, Cole, Harris, Ingles) in their rotation.

Yes, Paolo and Franz and Suggs and Black and Howard are all going to keep improving (Isaac/Carter/Moritz/Goga are all positive contributors, but are pretty much much what they are IMO) and will almost certainly determine the ultimate ceiling of this basketball team long-term, but upgrading the clear negative players in the rotation is going to make such a big difference as well.

[JoshuaPotter]

Paolo is above average offensively and average defensively? Believable. Given his role (#1 option, most minutes) should we be impressed?

Does this already control for his role as the #1 since #1 options get more defensive attention?

This says he's third in win shares behind Franz and Suggs? Close enough, not egregious.

Anthony Black is 84th on defense so this is already a banger.

Unleash JI

I don't think impressed is the right would. Granted, we ask this of a sophomore. So maybe we should be.

If he can get his defensive rating into the >0 category while continuing to refine his game the next few years are going to be fun.

I also have mentioned this before, Paolo has played the most games iirc this season. Whereas Suggs + Franz have played without Paolo maybe twice? I get that the numbers don't lie, yet these are the same numbers that rank Okeke / Houstan as stinkers and they started next to Paolo.

[eyriq]

Paolo is above average offensively and average defensively? Believable. Given his role (#1 option, most minutes) should we be impressed?

Does this already control for his role as the #1 since #1 options get more defensive attention?

This says he's third in win shares behind Franz and Suggs? Close enough, not egregious.

Anthony Black is 84th on defense so this is already a banger.

Unleash JI

I don't think impressed is the right would. Granted, we ask this of a sophomore. So maybe we should be.

If he can get his defensive rating into the >0 category while continuing to refine his game the next few years are going to be fun.

I also have mentioned this before, Paolo has played the most games iirc this season. Whereas Suggs + Franz have played without Paolo maybe twice? I get that the numbers don't lie, yet these are the same numbers that rank Okeke / Houstan as stinkers and they started next to Paolo.

What do we make of WCJ? He clearly clears by this measure.

[basketballRob]

Paolo plays a lot like a guard, and as we've seen with Suggs and Cole, their efficiency gets better in year 3. I also think what he does is more sustainable in playoff type games.

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[JoshuaPotter]

What do we make of WCJ? He clearly clears by this measure.

Oh it looks like pure vomit of which I have been trying to avoid discussing thus far.

This is one of those eye tests pass the sniff test passes the stat sheet test.

WCJ I don't think I have ever thought was bad. Our identity has just grown beyond him.

Defense
Wendell Carter +1.5 50th
vs
Goga Bitadze +2.3 27th

What really sets it apart though is the impact of being 50th vs 27th. We discuss it all the time how Goga is just better at defense and this backs it up in a major way.

Similarly Offense
Wendell Carter +0.5, 103rd
vs
Goga Bitadze −0.2, 156th

A case could be made that you feel 156th up to 103rd by a significant margin. But I imagine, you would feel 50th - 27th by a more substantial margin.

Total EPM
Goga Bitadze +2.0, 64th
Wendell Carter +2.0, 66th

Now for absolute funsies....because somehow Mo is listed as a center sometimes...
Offense Moritz Wagner +1.5, 64th (best on the team, an offensive dynamo)
Defense Moritz Wagner −0.4, 222nd
Total Moritz Wagner +1.1, 92nd

This totally tracks that we love Mo off the bench as a scoring punch and his fit as a Jakyl and Hyde monster next to priest Isaac / trash talker Ingles.

I conclude, that I agree with the stats because the numbers don't lie. Goga > WCJ. Goga was a steal and its a crime he has gone deep bench after all that hard work he has clearly put in.

Cope haters.

[AaronB]

I think that EPM, while imperfect, provides the logical path forward for the Magic.

Do what it takes to sign Goga if it is reasonable. I suspect he is going to get a lot closer to the MLE than most are comfortable with.

With that in mind, draft a big. Edey would be a great choice. Not drafting Lively (he and Cason were my best-case draft picks heading into the 2023 draft) is still a head-scratcher.

Sign D Russell if he is reasonable (I suspect he will get some AAS of between 19 and 23. He is the former #2 pick and has some good failures to draw on as experience. He has played with 2 big ball-dominant players in LBJ and AD.

[JoshuaPotter]

Oh that's right, I forgot to comment on win shares. So in order of.....

Franz Wagner 8.4, 27th
Jalen Suggs 6.6, 50th
Paolo Banchero 5.9, 61st
Wendell Carter 3.7, 95th
Moritz Wagner 3.4, 113th
Goga Bitadze 3.1,127th
Jonathan Isaac 2.8, 139th
Gary Harris 1.1, 217th
Cole Anthony 1.0, 226th
Joe Ingles 0.6, 250th
Anthony Black 0.2, 279th
Caleb Houstan 0.1, 299th


It doesn't shock anyone else that our 3 centers contain the most win shares? This is probably the more interesting stat. This is where we have to look at things like "lineup combos", "injuries", "playing time while returning to form" all comes into play. Yet even with all that going on in the season.......our PF/C combos seem to be our strength and not a weakness. Two things can be true at the same time I suppose. Wendell could have the more favorable lineups because he has been treated as the unquestionable starter. Yet Goga will backup WCJ + play with the green goblins and its going to insert a lot of noise into his numbers at this point of the season.

[eyriq]

AB measuring this good on defense as a 6'7 rookie point guard is insane. Right?

[JoshuaPotter]

AB measuring this good on defense as a 6'7 rookie point guard is insane. Right?

Quick brain math puts him in the low end of 25th percentile. High end 20th percentile.

500/125 =4

[AaronB]

EPM projected wins for Magic

Conf East
Wins 48.6
Wins Low 45.8
Wins High 51.4
1 Seed
2 Seed 7.4
3 Seed 19
4 Seed 31.8
5 Seed 27.3
6 Seed 9.9
7 Seed 3.5
8 Seed 1.1
9 Seed <0.1

[eyriq]

EPM projected wins for Magic

Conf East
Wins 48.6
Wins Low 45.8
Wins High 51.4
1 Seed
2 Seed 7.4
3 Seed 19
4 Seed 31.8
5 Seed 27.3
6 Seed 9.9
7 Seed 3.5
8 Seed 1.1
9 Seed <0.1

EPM clears

[basketballRob]

Isaac is #1 in defensive EPM now, and he passed Franz for the team lead 3.4 to 3.2. Suggs is at 3.1.

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[Knightro]

AB measuring this good on defense as a 6'7 rookie point guard is insane. Right?

It's encouraging. I wouldn't say it's insane.

Suggs was +2.2 Defensive EPM (27th in the NBA) as a rookie.

Black is at +1.1. Not quite the same level.