NBA Playoffs Thread (non-Magic games discussion)

RookieStar · Post #141 » by **RookieStar** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:23 am

thelead wrote:If we go 6-5 the rest of the way, Miami would have to go 9-1 the rest of the way to tie us and win the division. Tonight's Miami loss was HUGE.

Miami still plays the Knicks, 76ers, and Pacers.

Yes it was... they reqlly got injured at the worst time. Still i jave to ask if those are legit injury or just maintenace to keep legs fresh

Post #142 » by **eyriq** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:38 am

Losses
25: ------
26: Bucks
27: ------
28: Knicks, Cavs
29: Magic
30: ------
31: ------
32: Pacers
33: Sixers, Heat

Optimus_Steel · Post #143 » by **Optimus_Steel** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:41 am

Starting to feel better about our gap vs Mia with their games remaining. What’s Philly’s situation?

RookieStar · Post #144 » by **RookieStar** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:14 am

Optimus_Steel wrote:Starting to feel better about our gap vs Mia with their games remaining. What’s Philly’s situation?

Still fluid. As long as Embiid comes back they cant be discounted.

DiplomaticMagic · Post #145 » by **DiplomaticMagic** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:42 am

Milwaukee chokes but Miami's loss to Warriors was HUGE. Hopefully GS lays an egg tomorrow.

jezzerinho · Post #146 » by **jezzerinho** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:55 am

thelead wrote:If we go 6-5 the rest of the way, Miami would have to go 9-1 the rest of the way to tie us and win the division. Tonight's Miami loss was HUGE.

Miami still plays the Knicks, 76ers, and Pacers.

Agreed. And as you infer, a lot of the competing east teams have more than one remaining game against another playoff rival. We have only one. In those games, we're guaranteed to benefit from someone losing. Obviously we have to do the business too.

Post #147 » by **eyriq** » Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:15 am

Looking like a possible first round matchup against the Cavs...

Losses
26: Bucks
27: ------
28: Knicks
29: Cavs
30: Magic
31: ------
32: ------
33: Heat, Pacers
34: Sixers

ibraheim718 · Post #148 » by **ibraheim718** » Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:31 am

So conservatively they could go 3-6 in their last 9 games. 45 wins.. does that keep them at 6 is the question. I don't see them beating any of the other playoff teams they still have on the schedule.

They have to win any of these games and the ones they should win to stay at 6.
Absolute worst case scenario

Vs Clips L
Vs Grizzlies W
Vs Blazers W
@Pels L
@Hornets L
Vs Bulls W
@ Rox L
@Bucks L
@Sixers L
VS Bucks L

Beat any one of Clips,Pels,Hornets,Rox,Bucks 2X, Sixers and they get the 6 seed.

The Pels game is on the road.. and it's a payback game. Same with the Hornets game. Remember even the bad teams are playing hard.

At Rockets is a tough one too.. they could win that win if Paolo has a huge game.

Bucks 1st game loss seeding.
Sixers on the road is another tough one they could win with a big game from Paolo or Wagner or Suggs.
That last Bucks game is winnable of course at home and against the bench,

Optimus_Steel · Post #149 » by **Optimus_Steel** » Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:55 am

This could have an awful night but every team we are chasing lost, not counting NY as that didn’t seem like it was likely. So it turned into a wash.

RookieStar · Post #150 » by **RookieStar** » Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:10 am

eyriq wrote:Looking like a possible first round matchup against the Cavs...

Losses
26: Bucks
27: ------
28: Knicks
29: Cavs
30: Magic
31: ------
32: ------
33: Heat, Pacers
34: Sixers

That would be the perfect matchup for us no?

Post #151 » by **eyriq** » Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:24 am

RookieStar wrote:
eyriq wrote:Looking like a possible first round matchup against the Cavs...

Losses
26: Bucks
27: ------
28: Knicks
29: Cavs
30: Magic
31: ------
32: ------
33: Heat, Pacers
34: Sixers

That would be the perfect matchup for us no?

It would certainly be a better matchup than the Knicks. Stylistically, we are most like the Knicks and Heat. The Knicks owned the Cavs. Ergo, we should matchup favorably against the Cavs!

ibraheim718 · Post #152 » by **ibraheim718** » Fri Mar 29, 2024 4:27 pm

ibraheim718 wrote:So conservatively they could go 3-6 in their last 9 games. 45 wins.. does that keep them at 6 is the question. I don't see them beating any of the other playoff teams they still have on the schedule.

They have to win any of these games and the ones they should win to stay at 6.
Absolute worst case scenario

Vs Clips L
Vs Grizzlies W
Vs Blazers W
@Pels L
@Hornets L
Vs Bulls W
@ Rox L
@Bucks L
@Sixers L
VS Bucks L

Beat any one of Clips,Pels,Hornets,Rox,Bucks 2X, Sixers and they get the 6 seed.

The Pels game is on the road.. and it's a payback game. Same with the Hornets game. Remember even the bad teams are playing hard.

At Rockets is a tough one too.. they could win that win if Paolo has a huge game.

Bucks 1st game loss seeding.
Sixers on the road is another tough one they could win with a big game from Paolo or Wagner or Suggs.
That last Bucks game is winnable of course at home and against the bench,

LaMelo Ball out for the year.. I'm going to change the Hornets game to a win.

So that's a bare minimum 46 wins.

DiplomaticMagic · Post #153 » by **DiplomaticMagic** » Sat Mar 30, 2024 2:02 am

Teams are going to try to win/lose so they can face the Magic in playoffs and I dont blame them.

Post #154 » by **eyriq** » Sat Mar 30, 2024 3:16 am

Losses
27: Bucks
28: ------
29: Cavs, Knicks
30: ------
31: Magic
32: ------
33: Heat, Pacers
34: ------
35: Sixers

thelead · Post #155 » by **thelead** » Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:13 am

We're up 2.5 games on the Heat for the division with 8 games to go (Heat have 9 games left)

So the magic number to win the division is 7. Any combination of magic wins and heat losses that gets us to 7 clinches the division.

Post #156 » by **SOUL** » Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:54 am

thelead wrote:We're up 2.5 games on the Heat for the division with 8 games to go (Heat have 9 games left)

So the magic number to win the division is 7. Any combination of magic wins and heat losses that gets us to 7 clinches the division.

If we can get Portland, Charlotte and Chicago, that lets us have a slip up against NO. But that Bulls game is huge.

So we have to go 3-1 in the next four to feel comfortable.

Then you have tossups versus Houston, Bucks x2, Philly. 2-2 is what we should aim for but obviously another 3-1 would be nice.

If we can steal the Houston one it opens things up for the last 3 games. First Bucks game we'd both be back to back, maybe they don't want to go all out.. Philly game they will have to decide what to do if they're destined for play-ins. Would they play Embiid in the 2nd to last game? Then hopefully Bucks rest everybody the last game.

So basically it comes down to those Chicago/Houston games, if we obviously handle business with Portland/Charlotte first. Winning the Pels game would put us in great position.

Post #157 » by **SOUL** » Sun Mar 31, 2024 9:48 am

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/magicstandings.html

This is a really nice site to track it.

Right now we have a 10% chance of falling into 7th and 8th. Still probable obviously (especially for the Magic), but would take very specific scenarios.

For reference, we have an 11% chance of getting 3rd, so we actually have a higher percentage chance of moving up at this moment.

I think our best bet just to be safe is hoping Miami beats Indiana (they have less games, so less margin for error), and then hoping Miami loses two of NYK, @Houston, @Atlanta or Dallas (B2B). As well as hoping Indiana drops one versus OKC (maybe no Shai?) and at Cleveland. Any of those scenarios happening gives us more wiggle room to take one more loss than we anticipate.

Obviously requires us taking care of business too.

drsd · Post #158 » by **drsd** » Sun Mar 31, 2024 11:36 am

SOUL wrote:http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/magicstandings.html

This is a really nice site to track it.

Right now we have a 10% chance of falling into 7th and 8th. Still probable obviously (especially for the Magic), but would take very specific scenarios.

For reference, we have an 11% chance of getting 3rd, so we actually have a higher percentage chance of moving up at this moment.

I think our best bet just to be safe is hoping Miami beats Indiana (they have less games, so less margin for error), and then hoping Miami loses two of NYK, @Houston, @Atlanta or Dallas (B2B). As well as hoping Indiana drops one versus OKC (maybe no Shai?) and at Cleveland. Any of those scenarios happening gives us more wiggle room to take one more loss than we anticipate.

Obviously requires us taking care of business too.

Orlando as the 2-seed is still mathematically possible! But seriously, that is about at the same odds for Orlando sliding to 8.

77% chance to be within the 4-6 seed, with 36% chance to be the 5-seed. Orlando is more likely to be the 4 than the 6 seed.

>> Right now we have a 10% chance of falling into 7th and 8th.

This of course means the Magic is 90% to be a direct playoff team!

..

pepe1991 · Post #159 » by **pepe1991** » Sun Mar 31, 2024 11:37 am

Imo we will finish 5th and face Cavs or Knicks. That seems to be most realistic outcom

drsd · Post #160 » by **drsd** » Sun Mar 31, 2024 11:41 am

SOUL wrote:http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/magicstandings.html

This is a really nice site to track it.

Intersting magic numbers links also

Eastern Conference Winning Magic Numbers
and
Eastern Conference Losing Magic Numbers

From the second link for example, it is mathematically possible for Orlando to lose out and still be the 5-seed. LOL