NBA Playoffs Thread (non-Magic games discussion)

[drsd]

Imo we will finish 5th and face Cavs or Knicks. That seems to be most realistic outcom

NYKs (.561) has the second hardest schedule of the 15 Eastern teams (behind Charlotte at .600).

Cleveland at 7th (.497)

Orlando at 8th (.488)

....

Miami at .455 and Philly at a loo-roll soft .409


EDIT: the Knicks and Bulls have three games left against each other still/

[DiplomaticMagic]

Tonights games of Significance

Cavs @ Nuggets
Sixers @ Raptors
Heat @ Wizards
Thunder @ Knicks

Lets see if we can get back in the swing of things

[eyriq]

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/magicstandings.html

This is a really nice site to track it.

Right now we have a 10% chance of falling into 7th and 8th. Still probable obviously (especially for the Magic), but would take very specific scenarios.

For reference, we have an 11% chance of getting 3rd, so we actually have a higher percentage chance of moving up at this moment.

I think our best bet just to be safe is hoping Miami beats Indiana (they have less games, so less margin for error), and then hoping Miami loses two of NYK, @Houston, @Atlanta or Dallas (B2B). As well as hoping Indiana drops one versus OKC (maybe no Shai?) and at Cleveland. Any of those scenarios happening gives us more wiggle room to take one more loss than we anticipate.

Obviously requires us taking care of business too.

Love that 73% of the probability is top 5.

10% of the probability is in the play-in though. That should evaporate with a couple more wins.

66% of the probability is with us matching up with the Knicks or Cavs. Still a lot of uncertainty but the picture is becoming clearer.

[basketballRob]

I think we finish 4th. Milwaukee looks like they may not have any reason to win when we face them. The Cavs play Denver tonight, then a b2b with the Jazz and Suns, then a b2b against the Lakers and Clippers.

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[RookieStar]

DON isn't doing DON things against DEN right now.

How is he doing coming back from injury?

[Bakomagic]

Teams are going to try to win/lose so they can face the Magic in playoffs and I dont blame them.

Understandable, with us being young and with obvious weaknesses.

As an aside it would be cool if the NBA allowed the top seeds to choose their matchup.

It would be interesting and perhaps give more meaning to climbing the standings of you get to choose your playoff opponents, plus imagine an end of season selection show where the matchups are revealed and discussed, would be great for ratings I would think.

[RookieStar]

Teams are going to try to win/lose so they can face the Magic in playoffs and I dont blame them.

Understandable, with us being young and with obvious weaknesses.

As an aside it would be cool if the NBA allowed the top seeds to choose their matchup.

It would be interesting and perhaps give more meaning to climbing the standings of you get to choose your playoff opponents, plus imagine an end of season selection show where the matchups are revealed and discussed, would be great for ratings I would think.

THIS.

All of the vet PO teams are targeting us. We are after all probably the only.ones not expected to be there. Young, inexperienced, glaring weakness, etc etc.

[thelead]

Teams are going to try to win/lose so they can face the Magic in playoffs and I dont blame them.

Understandable, with us being young and with obvious weaknesses.

As an aside it would be cool if the NBA allowed the top seeds to choose their matchup.

It would be interesting and perhaps give more meaning to climbing the standings of you get to choose your playoff opponents, plus imagine an end of season selection show where the matchups are revealed and discussed, would be great for ratings I would think.

THIS.

All of the vet PO teams are targeting us. We are after all probably the only.ones not expected to be there. Young, inexperienced, glaring weakness, etc etc.

The standings are way too close right now to do what you guys are talking about. Maybe the last 2-3 games of the year once things are more clear. No one knows where Orlando will end up to try and get on the opposite side of the seeding today. They may want to face the magic but no one is purposefully losing games to do so with ~10 games to go.

[RookieStar]

Understandable, with us being young and with obvious weaknesses.

As an aside it would be cool if the NBA allowed the top seeds to choose their matchup.

It would be interesting and perhaps give more meaning to climbing the standings of you get to choose your playoff opponents, plus imagine an end of season selection show where the matchups are revealed and discussed, would be great for ratings I would think.

THIS.

All of the vet PO teams are targeting us. We are after all probably the only.ones not expected to be there. Young, inexperienced, glaring weakness, etc etc.

The standings are way too close right now to do what you guys are talking about. Maybe the last 2-3 games of the year once things are more clear. No one knows where Orlando will end up to try and get on the opposite side of the seeding today. They may want to face the magic but no one is purposefully losing games to do so with ~10 games to go.

True.. im just saying we are on the wish list to all those teams

[SOUL]

Small things to look out for:

- Need Milwaukee to win this easy part of the schedule to have nothing to play for at the end.

- Prob should be cheering for Houston losses and Warriors winning. They're in a tough stretch and also play the Warriors head to head. If they lose these next 3-4 games and also that H2H, by the time they play us they may have way less to play for. Anything to give us an edge in getting extra wins is good.

- Embiid may return soon. Which may make our Sixers game tough but they will have to decide if they want to play him that late. But it's interesting because he may play against Miami which turns an easier Miami game into a harder one for them.

- Knocks actually have a hard schedule so we need them to keep losing, EXCEPT to the Heat.

- Bulls/Hawks both having something to play for is important too.. Knicks have 3 games against the Bulls. Makes our game tough against Chicago but it's at home.

- Cavs will be hard to catch, they have 3 almost for sure wins (Jazz, Memphis, Charlotte) which will give them 48 wins, Would require us going 5-3 and them losing all the other games.

- We just need to get to 47-48. Portland and Charlotte gets us to 45.. I'd be VERY surprised if Milwaukee plays guys the last game so that would be 46 of games we "should" win. That means out of Chicago, @Houston, @PHI, @MIL (B2B for each), @ NOP we need 1-2 wins.

[SOUL]

Big Thunder win tonight..

[thelead]

Big Thunder win tonight..

the 2 behind us won, the 2 ahead of us lost. Still have a shot at the 3 seed.

[Bensational]

Big Thunder win tonight..

the 2 behind us won, the 2 ahead of us lost. Still have a shot at the 3 seed.

I’m rooting for 3rd seed now. Let’s shoot the moon and hopefully get a better matchup in the 1st round.

I want the Heat to get the W over the Knicks on Tuesday so hopefully we’re tied with the Knicks. I’ll live with Miami closing the gap on us.

[SOUL]

Big Thunder win tonight..

the 2 behind us won, the 2 ahead of us lost. Still have a shot at the 3 seed.

Yep those were expected wins though, they start to play each other now.

Knicks @ Miami
Philadelphia @ Miami
Miami @ Pacers
Cavs vs Indiana

[SOUL]

I want the Heat to get the W over the Knicks on Tuesday so hopefully we’re tied with the Knicks. I’ll live with Miami closing the gap on us.

Not sure if I want that. Not until one of Pacers/Heat are guaranteed to not be able to catch us. Getting play-in at this point would be terrible morale.

[thelead]

I want the Heat to get the W over the Knicks on Tuesday so hopefully we’re tied with the Knicks. I’ll live with Miami closing the gap on us.

Not sure if I want that. Not until one of Pacers/Heat are guaranteed to not be able to catch us. Getting play-in at this point would be terrible morale.

Bensational is a gambling man I see

[RookieStar]

I want the Heat to get the W over the Knicks on Tuesday so hopefully we’re tied with the Knicks. I’ll live with Miami closing the gap on us.

Not sure if I want that. Not until one of Pacers/Heat are guaranteed to not be able to catch us. Getting play-in at this point would be terrible morale.

Im with this... qe cant take chances.

Lets secure outright PO spot first before we wprry about seeding.

[RookieStar]

I want the Heat to get the W over the Knicks on Tuesday so hopefully we’re tied with the Knicks. I’ll live with Miami closing the gap on us.

Not sure if I want that. Not until one of Pacers/Heat are guaranteed to not be able to catch us. Getting play-in at this point would be terrible morale.

Bensational is a gambling man I see

Which is kinda scary as a Magic fan

[Bensational]

Not sure if I want that. Not until one of Pacers/Heat are guaranteed to not be able to catch us. Getting play-in at this point would be terrible morale.

Bensational is a gambling man I see

Which is kinda scary as a Magic fan

I see it this way:

- fighting to maintain some kind of NYK/CLE/ORL 3-5 positioning means we’re likely to get 2 of the worst matchups for us.

- fighting for 3 could see us face the Pacers, and I very much like that match up for us. Or maybe we get Miami - defending ECF champs who would good playoff experience even if they beat us.

If we drop to play-in territory, it’s just more excitement for the post season and a lower standard of success to clear next season. Win win!

*edit: and I prefer to think of myself as bullish on risk.

[RookieStar]

Bensational is a gambling man I see

Which is kinda scary as a Magic fan

I see it this way:

- fighting to maintain some kind of NYK/CLE/ORL 3-5 positioning means we’re likely to get 2 of the worst matchups for us.

- fighting for 3 could see us face the Pacers, and I very much like that match up for us. Or maybe we get Miami - defending ECF champs who would good playoff experience even if they beat us.

If we drop to play-in territory, it’s just more excitement for the post season and a lower standard of success to clear next season. Win win!

*edit: and I prefer to think of myself as bullish on risk.

Dropping into the playin after we achieved so much so soon would be demoralizing. More pressured as well. You know our team, when we are comfortable even Fultz launches and make 3s but if it is neck amd neck, even Paolo loses the ball.