Why The Magic, Hedo Need Each Other

[doct3r dr3]

Why the Magic Need to Keep Hedo
I. A lineup with Dwight Howard, Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson, and Rashard Lewis, without Hedo Turkoglu minimizes the effectiveness of Rashard Lewis
_______a. Option 1: you plug in the starting spot with a bigman (‘Sheed, Bass, ‘Dyess, etc.), and slide Rashard Lewis to his “natural” SF position. Rashard lacks the speed, quickness and ballhandling ability to drive past opposing 3s, and with Dwight Howard in the lane (or, more accurately, Dwight Howard’s defender, regardless of whether Dwight’s there or not), he won’t be getting many post-ups without meeting double-teams, out of which he hasn’t proven much ability to pass. He becomes almost purely a spot-up three point shooter, and in the process, isn’t drawing out opposing power forwards to make room for Dwight in the post, just letting opposing SFs do their job, and stay home. In so doing, the Magic miss out on all of the match-up problems that got them to the Finals in the first place.
_______b. Option 2: you plug Mickael Pietrus into that starting spot. Now, you go from a fairly stacked team with its most willing and proficient non-PG passer starting at the 3, to an even more stacked team with a completely unwilling passer starting at the 3. Again, at 6’7” with limited ballhandling capabilities at best, he’s not posing any real match-up problems with starting small forwards. You tell me how Rashard gets even the little drive-and-kicks he would get from Hedo with Mickael Pietrus launching everything he touches. How about these simple numbers: with a 25+ game sample size of each scenario this season, the Magic had a .704 record with Pietrus starting, a .720 record when he came off the bench, and a .750 record when he did not play. On 82games 5-man-rotations list, Hedo is in 9 of the top ten lineups for the Magic by Win%. Pietrus: only 3, including the 10th best lineup. Also, moving him to the starting lineup leaves no offensive spark whatsoever off the bench. In the playoffs he proved he could outscore the Cavaliers’ entire bench by himself over the course of a whole series. That’s about as clearly a defined niche as one could think of: super-scoring-sub. Why mess with that?

II. All the gripes against Hedo are alleviated, if not solved, by having added Vince to the lineup
_______a. “Hedo has lousy shooting nights where he still keeps shooting”: Hedo was a second or third option who handled the ball a lot this season, but would figure to be the fourth or fifth option on this team with Vince and a healthy Jameer. He would not force up ill-advised attempts with four all-stars around him; he’s not a selfish player. It’s important to look at Hedo’s career path and realize he’s a naturally unselfish player who has been asked to take on more offensive duties in the last few years, and not a naturally “me-first” guy, who has been asked to share the ball more.
_______b. “Hedo sometimes tries to do too much and commits silly turnovers”: With Vince Carter added, and the return of Jameer, Hedo doesn’t have to create as much. With Jameer out, Hedo was left as really the only player who could create offense for himself and for others, so he had to take on a great level offensive responsibility, which naturally results in turnovers. Adding a healthy Jameer and Vince Carter makes for two guys who can create for themselves and others, lessening the amount of time Hedo has to handle the ball and make decisions, and therefore the amount of turnovers he would commit. Again, Hedo has no problem deferring to others. If that involves giving up some shots to Carter, giving up some of the ball-handling duties to Carter, he is probably the guy out of our previous “big four” who would be most willing to do so.
_______c. “Hedo isn’t clutch/misses game-winners”: I can hardly believe this criticism, because he has clearly hit way more than his fair share of game-winners and made more than his fair share of clutch plays, and the league knows it by now. But, with Vince, Hedo can either take that big shot, or be a terrific decoy. Imagine our uncertainty as Magic fans during Magic timeouts with the game on the line this past year or last year. “I wonder if they’ll go to Jameer…” “Hedo’s been on, they might go to him…” “There’s always that Rashard-in-the-corner shot…” And just ADD the obvious threat of Vince Carter getting the shot. Point being, Hedo won’t be taking as many game-winners with Vince Carter and a healthy Jameer, but he’s such a viable candidate for that shot, defenders will have to play him for it; you won’t be able to double-team Vince Carter or anyone else in the starting lineup at any point in the game and “force someone else to beat you”. Anyone could.






Why Hedo Needs to Re-sign With the Magic
I. It’s His best shot at a title
_______a. Obviously, the Magic went to the Finals this year, and finished as runner-ups to the Lakers. The Lakers aren’t going to sign him, just like the Cavaliers, Celtics, Spurs, and Nuggets aren’t. They just don’t have the money he’s reportedly asking for. His best shot to win is with Orlando

II. The Magic can effectively offer him more than anyone else
_______a. The Magic have Bird rights on Hedo by virtue of his playing here un-waived/ un-resigned for over 3 years. That means he Magic are allowed to go over the cap (and into luxury tax) as much as necessary to keep him, up to the size of a max-level contract for a player with his experience in the league. Short of a sign-and-trade, no other team really can offer him that, and the Magic certainly aren’t looking to S&T Hedo and take on big-time salary in return

III. The Other Teams That Can Afford Him, Don’t Want/ Need Him
_______a. Atlanta Hawks - $42.8 Mil in committed salary: They’ve seen steady improvement with their nucleus, which included Marvin Williams, Mike Bibby, and Zaza who are all free agents this year. They landed Crawford, but you have to figure they’ll try to bring back as many of those guys as they can, especially, if not Zaza, a center of some kind. Gortat might be the more likely Magicman they pick up
_______b. Detroit Pistons - $33.8 Mil in committed salary: It’s sort of hard to get a grip on what they’re doing, but it would seem to involve rebuilding around Tayshaun Prince and Rodney Stuckey. You have to figure they’ll want to try to bring back Jason Maxiell, who will probably command a bit more than the $1.8 Mil he got last season. If they want to insta-rebuild, they might add Carlos Boozer and/or Ben Gordon, as has been rumored. If they want to build for the future, they might trade Rip Hamilton for even more cap relief at the deadline and roll the dice in the 2010 offseason. Either way, Hedo doesn’t fit what they’re trying to do, since they’re committed to Tayshaun, and since they just drafted 3 SFs.
_______c. Memphis Grizzlies – $36.1 Mil in committed salary: Their ownership group and front office don’t appear interested in winning, just perhaps in putting an exciting young team on the floor, efforts in which Hedo cannot assist. Add to that, the fact that a sort of redundancy arises between Rudy Gay and Hedo Turkoglu, and that they stand to have a ridiculous amount of capspace in 2010 if they stand pat.
_______d. New Jersey Nets - $45.6 Mil in committed salary: Well, we know firsthand what the story is with them: they just want young players and expirings for 2010. Signing a guy Hedo’s age to the kind of contract he wants doesn’t seem high on the list of likely moves for the Nets.
_______e. Oklahoma City Thunder – $41.8 Mil in committed salary: They’re another team stockpiling youth and capspace, and they’ve got more talented SFs than they know what to do with. Hedo wouldn’t make a lot of sense here.
_______f. Toronto Raptors - $44.5 Mil in committed salary: The Raptors have to be concerned with either being competitive enough right away to make Bosh want to stay after this year, or preparing for the possibility of his departure by clearing space now. While, Hedo might help them in the former pursuit, and while he’s a name the Raps board seems to throw around, they also seem to think that the Raps want to re-sign Marion and bring back Delfino, which would probably cut into a good amount of that space. Gutting the team and rolling the dice in 2010 might be their best bet anyway.
_______g. Portland Trailblazers - $48.7 Mil in committed salary: They have the least room of the teams with a shot at him, but they probably scare me he most because while young, they managed to finish 4th in the West. They are a team that could add pieces and try to go for it all now, or sort of stand pat in anticipation of the big payday Oden, Aldridge, and Roy are due for. They are rumored to have interest in Kirk Hinrich, Andre Miller or a trade for Steve Nash, but Turkoglu’s name also pops up in discussion. One would think this would entail S&T’ing the likes of Travis Outlaw or Martell Webster, whose contracts the Magic aren’t likely too keen on going over the luxury tax for, but who knows what will happen.






What Might Keep This Match Made in Heaven From Happening.
_______Multi-billionaire, World’s 119th richest man, and Magic owner Rich DeVos (estimated net worth: $4.4 Bil) could refuse to pay the ~ $7 Mil we would go over the luxury tax (0.159% of DeVos's net worth) necessary to keep Hedo out of his pocket. 0.159%. Put into perspective, the average American has amassed a net worth of about $232,000 when he/she is looking to retire. 0.159% of that is $369. If Hedo doesn’t come back, it’s because, effectively, one American, unaffected by the global economic crisis, decided it wasn’t worth $369 to him to ensure his team win the championship. The only thing standing between Hedo and the Magic is the level of concern the DeVos family has about the success of their team. Plain and simple. It could very well be the only thing standing between the Magic and a championship.

[lovehoops01]

Wow! Did you write all that?

I have wanted Hedo here all along, no matter what.

But you've got to wonder how much they can spend. By paying Vince that big money on top of Dwight and Rashard, they have shown they are willing to pay to get the title. I am more surprised that they are willing to pay more for Vince than it might have cost them to re-sign Hedo. Especially when you consider that it means they have more roster holes to fill now after including players in the trade and still have to pay some other guys. And also, you wonder if Hedo is mad that the Magic brought in Vince instead of getting a deal done for him?

I really don't know what the Magic plan on for the personality of the team now.

If they sign another big man, one way they might play differently is to let that guy stay back to grab the rebounds and run Dwight up the court quicker instead of staying for the rebounds. Then he might beat the double teams up the floor. Jameer will really have to push the ball.

There is going to be so much roster change. I'm still a little sad, to tell you the truth. (ALERT: That is not an anti-Vince statement. It's my, "I love this team'' moment.) I just want a team that will not quit, like the team that shocked a lot of people by making it all the way to the Finals this season. And one that has a lot of talent. I am a little worried about the chemistry because of all the changes. So many guys who got along with the rest of the guys and played hard every minute are going to be leaving.....So many of those guys had played together for a while too. Now there is going to have to be an adjustment period with such a roster upheaval.

[Pancho_Pantera]

Hedo is good but we should work a sign and trade for Bosh instead, or a trade where we can get a 1 or 2 solid players for him. Ex team would be Portland.

[ADRajX]

honestly, i want hedo to stay on this team

but if he's too dumb to realize he's not going to get a chance for the trophy/ring on another team (that'll be willing to pay for his ridiculous asking price) or returning to the magic for the greater good (and yes, taking what was offered, because that's what he's worth) to win a championship with a line-up consisting of Nelson, Howard, Carter, Lewis, and Pietrus(off the bench)...

... then he honestly doesn't deserve to be on the Magic, and that's the truth

again, i want him to stay, but the ball is in his court... does he want a championship or money(overpaid)? it's up to him.

[FFBlitzace]

I don't have $369 to my name right now, but if I did, I'd pay it for a championship.

[wepr3]

This is a well reasoned post. The only issue I take is with your assessment of whether or not DeVos should pony up more money just because he has it to spend. The fact of the matter is, DeVos has shown through the years the willingness to pay players: G Hill and & T Duncan/TMmac. In fact, even after all the crap TMac pulled with Weisbrod, DeVos was still willing to pay him the money he wanted on an extension, if only he would commit to the team. And, most recently, the contract we gave Rashard.

I know this is a silly analogy, but here it goes: some people might find it odd that a millionaire would use coupons when grocery shopping. They might even resent it. Why? Because they have so much money, why not just pay what's being asked? They certainly can afford it! Well just because they have it, doesn't mean they shouldn't save money where they can. It doesn't mean that they shouldn't be fiscally responsible.

I think what we did with Vince cut Hedo's options, and gave us leverage and/or a safety net. In business, isn't that where you want to be? Although I truly believe that Hedo in a Magic uniform will complete the scariest starting 5 in the league, we're not held hostage if he doesn't sign with us. Maybe he'll walk, and we'll be "stuck" with just Vince. Or, maybe, we can negotiate a more sane deal with Turk (less money per year and/or a shorter contract). I'm not saying it's going to work out the way we'd like it to, but we've given ourselves options.

[christian72589]

$7,000,000 does not = $369

come on... are you seriously putting this on Devos? Hedo wants to test the market so let him test the market. No one ever became wealthy by making stupid investments and overpaying for anything. If the Magic think that with Hedo we have the best chance at doing this thing, then they will probably do it. Why overpay when we have no idea what Hedo is really worth on the market?

[pinoynurse]

i want hedo to stay, he makes our offense so much better due to his size, his dribbling and passing. having 2 6'10 guys who can play like small forwards plus having vince carter gives me wet dreams. if he can stay on this team i would love it...however dj RajX is completely right...we are a legitimate championship calibre team and we offered a hedo close to what he wanted, i believe 9 mil for 4 years and he rejected it...if he cant see what a great oppurtunity he has in front of him and wants money more, then let him go...

[lovehoops01]

i want hedo to stay, he makes our offense so much better due to his size, his dribbling and passing. having 2 6'10 guys who can play like small forwards plus having vince carter gives me wet dreams. if he can stay on this team i would love it...however dj RajX is completely right...we are a legitimate championship calibre team and we offered a hedo close to what he wanted, i believe 9 mil for 4 years and he rejected it...if he cant see what a great oppurtunity he has in front of him and wants money more, then let him go...

Well, the problem now likely is that since they are paying Vince $16 million per, they might not be willing to pay Hedo $9 million per on top of that (even if he would agree to that). So that offer might not be on the table anymore. I don't know that, but it certainly seems like a distinct possibility.

[ivDT]

i still can't help but feel that hedo is nothing more than an expensive luxury now that we have carter.

i also can't say that i'm all that convinced by an argument that, among other things, suggests that we should keep hedo because without him in the lineup our 5th option on offense would be a worse playmaker than the 5th option we had last year.

[Idunkonyou2]

If the Raptors want Hedo, like I have been reading, sign and trade Hedo/Gortat/1st round picks to the Raptors for Bosh. Sign Hill to a vets minimum deal, sign Wallace to the MLE and McDyess to the VE.

2009-2010 Magic

PG Nelson, Johnson
SG Carter, Pietrus, Redick
SF Lewis, Hill
PF Bosh, Anderson
C Howard, Wallace, McDyess

A lineup like this would cruse to an NBA title IMO. Too bad it won't happen though. Maybe signing Hill, McDyess and Wallace will, but getting Bosh, no.

[Idunkonyou2]

i want hedo to stay, he makes our offense so much better due to his size, his dribbling and passing. having 2 6'10 guys who can play like small forwards plus having vince carter gives me wet dreams. if he can stay on this team i would love it...however dj RajX is completely right...we are a legitimate championship calibre team and we offered a hedo close to what he wanted, i believe 9 mil for 4 years and he rejected it...if he cant see what a great oppurtunity he has in front of him and wants money more, then let him go...

Well, the problem now likely is that since they are paying Vince $16 million per, they might not be willing to pay Hedo $9 million per on top of that (even if he would agree to that). So that offer might not be on the table anymore. I don't know that, but it certainly seems like a distinct possibility.

I think the offer is still there. Hedo just wants an extra year and 50 million. He has said he wanted this since last summer when Maggette got the same thing.

Bottom line, Hedo is overvaluing himself because he knows some idiot GM out there will give him that contract. The Magic won't because they don't need to any more since they got Carter. All Otis needs to do now is pretty much sign a PF for the MLE, then use the VE to get a decent backup for Howard, while probably spending a VM or two to get a couple of solid vets who want to make a run at the title. That is all he needs to do. If he can swing a sign and trade deal to a team for Hedo, that would be even better.

[Hilltop]

i still can't help but feel that hedo is nothing more than an expensive luxury now that we have carter.

He probably is at this point. A starting 5 with Turk looks great on paper, but like I said, it doesn't work as simple as that. As much as I love having him on the team, now that Vince Carter is here, I find it extremely difficult to imagine that Hedo isn't being replaced.

[Blue_and_Whte]

Great post, I still think hedo's improvment is due to SVG's system, and that he may not be as good anywhere else. Even without Hedo Orlando is an elite team that can win a title.

[Hilltop]

It goes without saying that some things in this system will change, and some things won't happen because we don't have Hedo anymore. It doesn't mean it's a bad thing though. Rashard's not a great ball handler overall but he can easily post-up on smaller SF's in this league, and that is a mismatch that he's exploited tremendously for years in Seattle. He'll be far from being rendered ineffective, the mere fact that he has Dwight Howard and Vince Carter on the same team changes everything. He will get his space.

So no, the Magic do not NEED Hedo Turkoglu.

[Bensational]

Why the Magic Need to Keep Hedo
I. A lineup with Dwight Howard, Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson, and Rashard Lewis, without Hedo Turkoglu minimizes the effectiveness of Rashard Lewis

a few basic rebuttals:

- Shard's a good enough player to know how to score, whether a SF is defending him or a PF. he's never been a great 1 on 1 scorer, but he's perfect for a good system that can get him good looks. with 3 other big time scoring options keeping the defenses honest, he will be guaranteed to get his looks. his defender won't stay home on him if Dwight is killing them on the inside, or if VC/Jameer is killing them off the drive.

- Hedo isn't very good without the ball in his hands. when Jameer dominated the ball at the start of last season, Hedo was redundant and constantly out of rhythm. when he got his opportunities he tried to force things, which hurt the team if anything. now with VC on the team, Hedo's guaranteed to see even less of the ball.

- You talk as if by removing Hedo, a ballhandling and passing SF, out of the lineup that we lose that element of the game whatsoever. VC can do both those things, so the only thing we lose is having a SF do it. i.e. SF- Hedo = ballhandler, passer. SG- Lee = Defender, shooting threat. / SF -Peitrus = Defender, shooting threat. SG- VC = ballhandler, passer. You're still getting similar roles, just from different positions.

[Visirale]

We are not getting Bosh. We are the Orlando Magic, not the New York Yankees.

Why Hedo won't resign with the Magic: Someone will overpay him and it's all about the dolla dolla bills.

[jonskilly]

can someone say....

[magicmamma]

Good opening post. I believe Hedo takes this team over the top. He is among the most versatile players in the NBA, and can produce in a variety of roles. I think winning it all this year is a priority because of a concern that RDV can't wait longer for a championship. And I don't think money is an issue, just as long as they get by as cheaply as they can while still getting that trophy, and that's true until the old man passes.

It may be wishful thinking, but I think Otis has tried to set it up to get Hedo cheap. He said that he made Hedo a reasonable offer and he turned it down. Message to GMs -- this guy wants more than we think he is worth. He said that he would continue to talk, but thought there was little chance it would be successful. Message to GMs -- we're OK without Hedo; no bidding war.

Dwight wants Hedo and Dwight wants Marcin. The Magic just traded away his "big brother" and his "little brother." You do have to keep your franchise player happy. Yes, this is expensive, but winning championships is very profitable, particularly when you are moving into a new arena with greatly enhanced opportunities for making money.

[craig01]

There is little doubt that Smith was calling out Hedo's hand as early as possible.

What is in doubt is how that tactic and the signing of VC subverts Turk's bargaining power.

It's going to be an interesting next week or two.