Will Vince be a better go-to guy than Hedo?

[Super_Mario_3]

i posted something like this here a few weeks ago:

the stats used in the article does not give an accurate insight on comparing the "clutch-ness" of VC and hedo. what if it's a blowout win or loss for your team already and you're just padding stats?

a more accurate stat that can be used can be found in this link:

http://www.82games.com/0809/CSORT7.HTM

it shows the stats of players during the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime when neither team is ahead by more than 5 points.

from the list, i took a sample of wing players and some point guards to see how carter compares with the rest of the league. here are the players i sampled:

joe johnson, ray allen, paul pierce, ben gordon, lebron james, chauncey billups, carmelo anthony, danny granger, kobe bryant, dwayne wade, hedo turkoglu, rashard lewis, jameer nelson, andre iguodala, brandon roy, kevin martin, manu ginobili, caron butler, vince carter

that's a pretty good list.

from the link, i think the best measure of a player's clutch-ness is his FG% and 3PT-FG% in the clutch because it shows us that when given the opportunity, what are the chances that you will make the shot?

so, are you ready to be surprised?

before going to carter, let's check hedo. from the list above, hedo is dead-last in FG% in the clutch, shooting a horrific 35.7 FG%. he is also 3rd to the last in 3PT-FG% shooting just 20.0% from 3 point land. people remember when he makes clutch shots, but some tend to forget how many bad/forced shots hedo takes in the clutch.

so how does VC fare? VC is 5th in the list in FG% making 50.0% of his shots from the field during clutch situations. that's a very, very solid FG% to have in the clutch. but here's where it gets better. VC is 3rd in the list in 3PT-FG% shooting 50.0% also from 3 point land!!!!! 50% from the field is good, but 50% from the 3 point land is simply amazing. and he did all this last season in a bad new jersey team where he probably was the center of the opposing team's defense.

so we lose hedo who shoots bad in the clutch and get VC who excels well in those situations.

but wait, there's actually more good news. vince alone can't do it for the magic. what happens if he gets double-teamed? enter: jameer nelson and rashard lewis.

From the list, here are the TOP 5 players in terms of FG% in the clutch:

1) carmelo anthony - 56.5%
2)lebron james - 55.6%
3) jameer nelson - 51.6%
4) rashard lewis - 51.1%
5) vince carter - 50.0%

other notable players in the list: wade is 8th with 47.0%, kobe 10th (45.7%), pierce 12th (45.1%)

Needing a bucket to win or seal the game? no problem. we can turn to any of the three. but what if we need a three?

From the list, here are the TOP 5 players in terms of 3PT-FG% in the clutch:

1) jameer nelson - 60.0%
2) carmelo anthony - 58.3%
3) vince carter - 50.0%
4) paul pierce - 46.7%
5) rashard lewis - 43.5%


so. anyone like our chances of winning it all next season? imo, we have the most clutch team in the NBA right now.

[RvM]

A Sentinel statistical analysis of fourth-quarter performance between the players reveals that Carter is more efficient in the final period and just may be more effective, too.

I like how the Sentinel says this to make it seem like they really did some analysis and didn't just jack numbers from a site like 82games.com. But then you look at all of the numbers they show and you realize how irrelevant they are to the discussion. The article is supposed to be about who is the better go-to-guy, not who wakes up to do more things in the 4th quarter than in the previous 3. Hell, I can be a player on the Magic, not take a single shot during the entire game and all of a sudden throw up brick after brick in the 4th quarter. If I make just one shot, the Sentinel would say in this article that 100% of my points came in the 4th quarter. That doesn't mean I'm good. The same goes for all the other stats they show.

I don't really care if Turk takes 33.1% of his 3's in the 4th as opposed to Vince's 20.0%. That tells me nothing about whether he's making those shots are not. Show me the production numbers-- how many points he scores off of 3's in the 4th and tell me what his shooting percentage is.

Here's how 82games.com compares the two players in crunch time (defined as 5 minutes left in the 4th or OT with neither team ahead by more than 5 points) in terms of production per 48 minutes:

+/-
Vince -5
Hedo +70
^ this probably has more to do with the Nets being a far worse team than the Magic down the stretch but it's interesting to see how big a difference there is between the players' +/-.

POINTS
Vince 34.3
Hedo 26.6

FGa
Vince 24.5
Hedo 20.1

FG%
Vince 50.0
Hedo 35.7
^ It's pretty obvious from this stat that Vince shoots the ball a lot better down the stretch. 35% is pretty awful for any "go-to-guy" or "Mr. 4th Quarter."

3Pa
Vince 8.6
Hedo 7.2

3P%
Vince 50.0
Hedo 20.0
^ Vince's 3-point numbers equate to 12.9 clutch pp48 while Hedo's come out to 4.3 clutch pp48. So again, Vince's shooting is a heck of a lot better than Hedo's here.

FTa
Vince 6.4
Hedo 12.2
^ This is pretty big. We've seen how even if Hedo is having a bad shooting night, he can still put the ball on the floor, make a veteran move, and draw a foul to send him to the line. Turk has shown that he can be very productive down the stretch even if he's had a terrible game up until that point.

FT%
Vince 85.0
Hedo 88.0
^ pretty even and both guys are great.

ASSISTED
Vince 25%
Hedo 25%
^ I like how the percentages are identical. This tells me that both guys are creating their shots at the same rate and aren't dependent upon another player find them. This is what makes both of these players "go-to-guys." For comparison, Rashard Lewis is assisted 52% in the clutch, Dwight 63% Kobe 15%, and Lebron 20%.

REBOUNDS
Vince 5.5
Hedo 9.3
^ I'd say we'll miss Hedo's rebounding but the addition of Brandon Bass should help to mitigate that.

ASSISTS
Vince 4.3
Hedo 3.6
^ pretty even but Vince was putting up slightly better numbers on a far worse team. Hedo had Dwight and Rashard to dump the ball off to, who as we saw from the "assisted" stat, are very much "catch and put it up" kind of guys. Vince's assist numbers should jump up on the Magic

T/O
Vince 3.4
Hedo 1.4
^ kind of surprising to me that Hedo's turnover rate is so low. If Vince's number stays that high, it could be very frustrating for Magic fans this season.

BLK
Vince 0.9
Hedo 0.4
^ both numbers are so low it's kind of trivial.

STL
Vince 2.5
Hedo 0.4
^ Nice to see that Vince is getting 5 times as many steals as Hedo in the clutch. That's huge.

+1

[Last Guardian]

Running P&Rs ------------> Even

Isolation ------------------> Carter

Shooting ------------------> Carter

Fade aways----------------> Even

Attacking/Finishing-----> Carter

Clutch play----------------> Carter

Last second shot ------> Turkoglu

Although Turk is still the one guy I want taking the last second shot out of the entire league, I think Carter is a much better overall go-to guy. He is just a better basketball player.

[NetsForce]

Did some of you just start watching the NBA? How is this even a thread o_o... Talk about overrating players who have played for your team (no offense)...

[thepritz]

Running P&Rs ------------> Even

Isolation ------------------> Carter

Shooting ------------------> Carter

Fade aways----------------> Even

Attacking/Finishing-----> Carter

Clutch play----------------> Carter

Last second shot ------> Turkoglu

Although Turk is still the one guy I want taking the last second shot out of the entire league, I think Carter is a much better overall go-to guy. He is just a better basketball player.

Thats pretty nuts, i can think of 5 ahead of him, one of them being vince.

And you forgot to mention post offense, turk has 0.

[NEM]

I think the Magic will find someone qualified to inbound the ball.

i think gortat could develop into that guy. he's a european big meaning he has good passing ability. he is big so he can see over defenders, if he worked on it he'd be good at it. now of course there is the thing with the inbounder getting the ball back. in this case it would be vince or rashard

[Last Guardian]

Running P&Rs ------------> Even

Isolation ------------------> Carter

Shooting ------------------> Carter

Fade aways----------------> Even

Attacking/Finishing-----> Carter

Clutch play----------------> Carter

Last second shot ------> Turkoglu

Although Turk is still the one guy I want taking the last second shot out of the entire league, I think Carter is a much better overall go-to guy. He is just a better basketball player.

Thats pretty nuts, i can think of 5 ahead of him, one of them being vince.

And you forgot to mention post offense, turk has 0.

With the amount of buzzer beaters Hedo has made, I don't see how you can take anyone over him on a last second shot. The rest of his game is massively overrated, but you can't take the buzzer beaters away from him.

[MichaelH]

Running P&Rs ------------> Even

Isolation ------------------> Carter

Shooting ------------------> Carter

Fade aways----------------> Even

Attacking/Finishing-----> Carter

Clutch play----------------> Carter

Last second shot ------> Turkoglu

Although Turk is still the one guy I want taking the last second shot out of the entire league, I think Carter is a much better overall go-to guy. He is just a better basketball player.

Thats pretty nuts, i can think of 5 ahead of him, one of them being vince.

And you forgot to mention post offense, turk has 0.

With the amount of buzzer beaters Hedo has made, I don't see how you can take anyone over him on a last second shot. The rest of his game is massively overrated, but you can't take the buzzer beaters away from him.

Youtube Hedo buzzer beater & carter buzzer beater, you'll find almost triple in favour of Carter

[orl1724]

Nice stats and all but to be fair Jameer won A LOT of games too maybe more than Carter. We could rely on Meer to win a few also so it wont all be Carter.

We can also pull a DH @ SA type play

[Hilltop]

I don't feel these 'statistics' do anything more than just make my head hurt reading them. To anyone who actually watches these two play, the answer is obvious. Let's not get carried away here. Turkoglu has been great for the Magic, but this isn't even close. Vince Carter will always be the better scorer/go-to player/clutch shooter.

[MagicFan32]

unquestionably.

Two years ago, YES Hedo was amazingly clutch, last year? there were many nights we were cursing him, now did he hit some big shots in the playoffs? hell yes but he made alot of stupid plays to.

Vince is a better shooter, and teams respect his penetrating ability more, hes gonna be feeding dwight and bass lots of easy dunks

[otownflava21]

does anyone think vince can average these numbers again??


Year Team G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG TO PPG
06-07 NJN 82 82 38.1 0.454 0.357 0.802 6.0 4.8 1.0 0.4 2.65 25.2

that was only 3 years ago

[G-Heel]

I already know Vince will be better goto guy than Hedo. Hedo got extremely overrated after the series against Cleveland. People forgot how much he stinks up in the first half of the season and the first two rounds of the playoff.

The only negative I see from this is that we are not match up as great with Cleveland, but I have confident Vince will help us beat Cleveland if we see them next postseason.

[Hilltop]

does anyone think vince can average these numbers again??


Year Team G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG TO PPG
06-07 NJN 82 82 38.1 0.454 0.357 0.802 6.0 4.8 1.0 0.4 2.65 25.2

that was only 3 years ago

I don't expect him to score anywhere near that. Then again, when you have Rashard lewis, Dwight Howard, and Jameer Nelson around, bursting for 25-30 points is probably not necessary night in and night out anyway.

[The Main Event]

Classic example of a fanbase clinging to scraps of dillusion to comfort them when losing a key piece of their system.

[Nyce_1]

seriously, why is this even a discussion?

Vince is the better EVERYTHING, hands down.

[cwas2882]

Classic example of a fanbase clinging to scraps of dillusion to comfort them when losing a key piece of their system.

So you think that Hedo is unquestionably better than Vince?

[The Main Event]

Classic example of a fanbase clinging to scraps of dillusion to comfort them when losing a key piece of their system.

So you think that Hedo is unquestionably better than Vince?

Not at all but i think that it's foolish and homeristic to simply assume that because Vince is a better individual player then Hedo that he will be a greater asset, a better fit and more impactful to the Magic.

[mhectorgato]

Classic example of a fanbase clinging to scraps of dillusion to comfort them when losing a key piece of their system.

So you think that Hedo is unquestionably better than Vince?

Not at all but i think that it's foolish and homeristic to simply assume that because Vince is a better individual player then Hedo that he will be a greater asset, a better fit and more impactful to the Magic.

So the only we can play is the way we played with Hedo?

[Nene]

Given the stats shown ITT, I don't see that there is even an argument to be made. Vince is better hands down.