2015 Miami Pick

[42uptop]

I like you as a poster, so I won't put that prediction up as a "Sig".

But (no offense) you are out of your mind if you think the Heat are going to get anywhere near 58 wins. Frankly, I'll be stunned if they get as many as 50.

Washington and Charlotte have better rosters than the Heat now. The Heat, arguably have the better coach, otherwise I would guarantee you they'd finish 3rd in their division, let alone the conference.

Hey I have no animosity towards anyone. I think Miami is going 58-24. And I will be rooting against it like everyone else.

[Phila Tough]

Going to be fun cheering for Miami to lose every game!

Was ready to cheer for them to win

[the_process]

It's hard to make the argument that Miami is more talented than Cleveland, Chicago, Washington, Toronto, or Charlotte. And Atlanta is right there with them, too. Bosh has said he is no longer the 20-10 guy he was in Toronto, and it's hard to see him getting back to those numbers even with increased touches now that he's a full time C. And Wade won't be playing anywhere near 70 games. That's like saying Varejao will be healthy all year. That leaves a team with a questionable coach, a PF still playing C, Josh McRoberts, Luol Deng, and Mario Chalmers with Danny Granger and LBJ's draft pick on the bench. That team screams 41 wins and an 8 seed. But of course, in the East, they could bump up a spot or two, and I will give them that benefit of the doubt since they have been in the finals the past 4 years. 45 wins and a 6 seed is fair. That equals, at worst, the 18th pick in the draft.

[Skates]

58 wins with that roster? If they win 48 games it should be considered a success for Miami. LeBron didn't just leave because he wanted to go home, he saw a team around him that was in decline, but too devoted to its other aging stars to pull a true reload around LBJ. The PG situation is horrific, they lack size, Bosh will get beat on and wither under the defensive focus at least a little, while Wade playing 60 games at 80% Wade level would be realistic, if not optimistic. Deng is a nice complimentary piece, but that is it and will get over exposed on Miami. I'm not sure they make the playoffs out west, in the East, they look like a 5-7 seed.

[bebopdeluxe]

58 wins with that roster? If they win 48 games it should be considered a success for Miami. LeBron didn't just leave because he wanted to go home, he saw a team around him that was in decline, but too devoted to its other aging stars to pull a true reload around LBJ. The PG situation is horrific, they lack size, Bosh will get beat on and wither under the defensive focus at least a little, while Wade playing 60 games at 80% Wade level would be realistic, if not optimistic. Deng is a nice complimentary piece, but that is it and will get over exposed on Miami. I'm not sure they make the playoffs out west, in the East, they look like a 5-7 seed.

EXACTLY this.

And I like the idea of a swap of the Knicks and Sixers 1st round picks for Amare...the only problem I see with that, however, is I don't know if we can make a trade of the Miami pick at the dedline until we know that we have it.

[Ericb5]

You think so until it gets toward the end of the season and you tune into live games and they are down 5 in the 4th quarter to a bad team like the Kings, and the Kings screw up and Miami ends up winning by 1 and you are like "Why the hell am I driving myself crazy living and dying with every damn game???"

I did the same damn thing with the Pelicans last year and eventually I stopped watching and said I'd check back after the season and let the chips fall.

I recommend doing the same or you'll drive yourself crazy.

Aw, come on.. where's the fun in that?

Being in the situation that we were in last year with the Pelicans and this year with the Heat is fun because it is like you are a fan of two teams. Every game for the other team is really important to you.

The Heat are especially volatile this year because one of their stars has major durability problems and if Wade is only healthy for half of the season then they may not even make the playoffs. Wade should be thought of as a player that is at least 3-4 years older than he actually is simply because of the state of his body.

Bosh is a terrific secondary star, but if he is expected to be your best player then I don't think they go very far.

Wouldn't surprise me if they win 50 games, but it also wouldn't surprise me if they win 40.


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[Cokeleaf]

People are still spooked by the name Miami Heat. Look at the rosters. Unless Dwayne Wade returns to the Wade of 3 years ago, the Heat aren't as good as the Wizards or Raptors. That's not to mention the Hawks and Hornets (in their division) got much better. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Heat were the #5 seed.

Could not disagree more. If you think this is going to happen, prepare to be disappointed. 2 seasons ago Wade started 70 games and had an incredible season, despite playing second fiddle to LeBron. Bosh is a great player, Spoelstra is a good coach, their roster is filled with guys who have playoff and championship experience.

The only reason people are down on Miami is because they are taking Wade's and Bosh's statistics at face value, instead of realizing that those guys were sitting out games and deferring possessions because of LeBron's presence. Now that he is not there those two guys and going to look great because of increased usage

The entire Heat team coasted last year because they were only focused on the playoffs. Now with something to prove, Miami will win at least 50 games. I predict closer to 58 wins and a 2 seed. Their pick is going to be next to worthless.

Yea, 58 wins is enough to secure first in the east quite easily.
Miami with LeBron won 54 games. Yes the LeBron led Heat coasted a bit towards the end, but the point remains.
58 wins is a bold prediction

[LloydFree]

This trade has made me re-examine the other rosters in East. How is a Bosh, Wade, Deng, McRoberts, Chalmers lineup much better than a Horford, Milsap, Carroll, Korver, Teague lineup? People have Atlanta as the 7th seed, and they're just as talented as Miami. The 76ers are taking a very good bet that this Miami pick will be in the middle of the 1st.

[Sixerscan]

People are still spooked by the name Miami Heat. Look at the rosters. Unless Dwayne Wade returns to the Wade of 3 years ago, the Heat aren't as good as the Wizards or Raptors. That's not to mention the Hawks and Hornets (in their division) got much better. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Heat were the #5 seed.

Could not disagree more. If you think this is going to happen, prepare to be disappointed. 2 seasons ago Wade started 70 games and had an incredible season, despite playing second fiddle to LeBron. Bosh is a great player, Spoelstra is a good coach, their roster is filled with guys who have playoff and championship experience.

The only reason people are down on Miami is because they are taking Wade's and Bosh's statistics at face value, instead of realizing that those guys were sitting out games and deferring possessions because of LeBron's presence. Now that he is not there those two guys and going to look great because of increased usage

The entire Heat team coasted last year because they were only focused on the playoffs. Now with something to prove, Miami will win at least 50 games. I predict closer to 58 wins and a 2 seed. Their pick is going to be next to worthless.

The main reason people are down on the Heat (beyond losing the best player in the world) is that they don't think Wade can play a full season at a high level anymore.

[LongLiveHinkie]

You think so until it gets toward the end of the season and you tune into live games and they are down 5 in the 4th quarter to a bad team like the Kings, and the Kings screw up and Miami ends up winning by 1 and you are like "Why the hell am I driving myself crazy living and dying with every damn game???"

I did the same damn thing with the Pelicans last year and eventually I stopped watching and said I'd check back after the season and let the chips fall.

I recommend doing the same or you'll drive yourself crazy.

Aw, come on.. where's the fun in that?

Hey, anxiety is no fun either.

[LongLiveHinkie]

This trade has made me re-examine the other rosters in East. How is a Bosh, Wade, Deng, McRoberts, Chalmers lineup much better than a Horford, Milsap, Carroll, Korver, Teague lineup? People have Atlanta as the 7th seed, and they're just as talented as Miami. The 76ers are taking a very good bet that this Miami pick will be in the middle of the 1st.

I had them 6th or 7th before the Paul George injury. Now I'll say 5 or 6. But if Wade goes down with those knees, they could easily fall to 7 or 8 if he misses some decent time. I don't think they are that good and they are poorly coached IMO.

[maddog50]

Wasn't Lebron at something like ~21 WARP last year? Taking into account the idea that the Heat coasted during the regular season, I would expect Lebron's absence to cost the team at least 10 wins from last year. Is this reasoning extremely flawed?

[BlackKnight]

I actually think Spoelstra is an excellent coach and he'll be one of the reasons they get one of the middle seeds. Their defense was excellent before the big 3 (top 3 defensive team in the 09-10 season) and I still expect them to have a very good defense without LBJ. With that being said, Wade's health will dictate whether they become a 3 seed or an 8 seed because their offense will be pretty bad.

[BullyKing]

Not sure where to put this but the Bucks just got a future first from the Clippers for Dudley. Really would like to see us get in some of these.

[ckchen]

Not sure where to put this but the Bucks just got a future first from the Clippers for Dudley. Really would like to see us get in some of these.

Good to see that i correctly predicted that the bitching about not getting involved in every single trade would start as soon as the trade was announced.

[BullyKing]

Not sure where to put this but the Bucks just got a future first from the Clippers for Dudley. Really would like to see us get in some of these.

Good to see that i correctly predicted that the bitching about not getting involved in every single trade would start as soon as the trade was announced.

For a team with over $20 million in cap space, its a legitimate question. But so I don't run afoul of you in the future, please let me know the topics we are and are not allowed to comment on.

[MountainDrew]

Raduljica is actually a decent center, capable of playing backup minutes. I think he had a PER higher than 16. THis isn't just a salary dump for the clippers, they needed more help in the frontcourt and raduljica can provide that. I guess we could maybe get the pick if we traded Sims but I wouldn't be a fan of that tbh.

[BullyKing]

The market seems pretty well-established that it costs 1 late 1st round pick to dump $8-9 million in salary. I don't that's necessarily great value but given our cap space, I would like to make at least one of these trades.

[ckchen]

Not sure where to put this but the Bucks just got a future first from the Clippers for Dudley. Really would like to see us get in some of these.

Good to see that i correctly predicted that the bitching about not getting involved in every single trade would start as soon as the trade was announced.

For a team with over $20 million in cap space, its a legitimate question. But so I don't run afoul of you in the future, please let me know the topics we are and are not allowed to comment on.

I'm not trying to single anyone out, but I just want to reiterate a discussion I had on a long ago thread that it's basically unreasonable to assume that somehow the Sixers/Hinkie is aware of or offered every single trade that happens in the league. I feel like people on the board believe that somehow Hinkie is somehow aware of, and actively declines every single trade that goes down in the NBA, when this is simply not the case. Teams make deals all of the time. I can virtually guarantee that not everyone is consulting Hinkie every single time, but people somehow expect that this is the case.

[BullyKing]

Good to see that i correctly predicted that the bitching about not getting involved in every single trade would start as soon as the trade was announced.

For a team with over $20 million in cap space, its a legitimate question. But so I don't run afoul of you in the future, please let me know the topics we are and are not allowed to comment on.

I'm not trying to single anyone out, but I just want to reiterate a discussion I had on a long ago thread that it's basically unreasonable to assume that somehow the Sixers/Hinkie is aware of or offered every single trade that happens in the league. I feel like people on the board believe that somehow Hinkie is somehow aware of, and actively declines every single trade that goes down in the NBA, when this is simply not the case. Teams make deals all of the time. I can virtually guarantee that not everyone is consulting Hinkie every single time, but people somehow expect that this is the case.

No one is saying all of them. There have now been three trades of 1st round picks for essentially 8-9 million in contracts (though I grant you that Lin is somewhat different because of actual money owed). If none of the Rockets, Clippers, Cavs, or Nets bothered to see what Hinkie, the guy with probably as much cap space as the rest of the league combined, would accept, we've got other problems.

I'm not trying to debate this again or prove my Hinkie bona fides. I am enormous fan of the guy but continue to think that overvaluing cap space that we will never use is the one thing I disagree with him on.