Vegas sets Over/Under on wins at 42.5

Post #1 » by **bwgood77** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 1:59 am

http://espn.go.com/espn/chalk/story/_/i ... e-best-585

9th place again, one game ahead of the Pelicans and two games ahead of the Nuggets.

DirtyDez · Post #2 » by **DirtyDez** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 2:12 am

Death, taxes and the Phoenix Suns picking 14th.

sunsfever68 · Post #3 » by **sunsfever68** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 2:50 am

Don't want to say that's a slam dunk on the over (obviously Vegas doesn't like us losing Frye while gaining thomas adding up to wins) but I think we win at least 43.

Post #4 » by **bwgood77** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 3:08 am

Yes, I think that would be a pretty good bet, especially if Bledsoe is healthy all year. The Hawks over would be the other bet I'd make. They won what, 39 without Horford?

Post #5 » by **Miklo** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 3:18 am

bwgood77 wrote:Yes, I think that would be a pretty good bet, especially if Bledsoe is healthy all year. The Hawks over would be the other bet I'd make. They won what, 39 without Horford?

Agreed on both counts. If I had to pick a couple "under" bets to make, it would probably have to be Heat and Pacers. Heat could be about right, but that team could end up looking kind of ugly too and now when Wade sits they could be in trouble. Pacers could be borderline comically bad.

Post #6 » by **bwgood77** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 3:22 am

Miklo wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:Yes, I think that would be a pretty good bet, especially if Bledsoe is healthy all year. The Hawks over would be the other bet I'd make. They won what, 39 without Horford?

Agreed on both counts. If I had to pick a couple "under" bets to make, it would probably have to be Heat and Pacers. Heat could be about right, but that team could end up looking kind of ugly too and now when Wade sits they could be in trouble. Pacers could be borderline comically bad.

I wonder if Wade will sit as much. He may embrace the roll of being THE MAN again and want to play more. I don't know if I would bet against them. Not with Wade and Bosh and another guy in Deng that could be rejuvenated. Pacers is kind of low, but their talent has eroded.

I think Milwaukee could be a decent over bet too. They vastly underachieved for a bunch of reasons last year, and they have decent talent in a weak conference.

I don't know if SVG will coach a team under 500 either. There might be a decent chance he trades Monroe for a better wing and a frontcourt of Smith and Drummond works better and Jennings/Meeks/Pope are three scorers, at least two can hit threes...and if whoever they add in a Monroe trade could add more firepower.

I think SVG is easily a top 10 coach.

Gorilla Warfare · Post #7 » by **Gorilla Warfare** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 3:47 am

Give me $50 on the over.

LukasBMW · Post #8 » by **LukasBMW** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 4:51 am

The West is tough and we have no front court.

We only make the playoffs if either Len or Plumlee (or both) step up in a major way AND Bledsoe/Dragic/Markieff match last years performance.

Post #9 » by **bwgood77** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 5:22 am

LukasBMW wrote:The West is tough and we have no front court.

We only make the playoffs if either Len or Plumlee (or both) step up in a major way AND Bledsoe/Dragic/Markieff match last years performance.

I'm not saying we make the playoffs, but over 42 wins is a decent bet considering our 2nd best player was injured for half the year and our depth is much greater so if something like that happens again, it won't hurt as much.

Dragic may regress without Frye, but the twins should improve, possibly Green too, and Warren will add something. Len can't get worse. At least I don't think he can. Plumlee too. The vast majority of players have their biggest improvement in year two because the nba and going against such a premier level of talent is just an entire different ballgame.

People really underestimate that last sentence I typed. Even the BEST college players only played against a handful of players that will even play in the nba past rookie contracts. Maybe 15-20. Possibly more. That means they MAY play one team once with more than one NBA player unless they play Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, AZ or UCLA and possibly a couple others in a given year (and only AZ the last two years) and if you think about it, with a handful of teams giving the NBA half of the players that make an impact, how many of those players play against other NBA players in college? Think about Kentucky for example. Any given team of theirs has 3-4 or more players who will play in the nba for awhile. Considering only about 20 a year become impact players in the NBA, how many times have they faced those other 15 players considering they are spread against other conferences (Pac 12, ACC, Big East, Big 12)

Kentucky faced Florida twice but none of those guys were even NBA caliber even though as a college team they were one of the best teams in the country. So Randle, suddenly plays against guys on a whole different level. The Harrison twins struggled big time, so how do they handle the NBA.

Fortunately, Ennis and Warren dominated in the best conference in the country, and for both, it was their first year with major playing time. That bodes VERY well for their future.

phrazbit · Post #10 » by **phrazbit** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 5:47 am

I think we'll be as good as last year, win 45-50 games... and be a few breaks from either making or missing the playoffs. West is so nasty. If we were in the East I think we'd be easily finish in the top 4. So I'd take the over for us, but still think we're a 50/50 bet to make the playoffs.

I like the under for the Pelicans, like Davis... if he was not there I think that would be a 20 win team, I think he can get them to about 35 but not over 40.

The over for the Pacers (32? out East? they can beat that),

Under for the Lakers, they're awful, super mega awful, and they have a bad coach, and if they finish better than the bottom 5 we get their pick... so you can just about lock them in for the 4th or 5th worst record.

Over for the Hawks, for the same reason others mentioned.

Post #11 » by **bwgood77** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 6:08 am

phrazbit wrote:I think we'll be as good as last year, win 45-50 games... and be a few breaks from either making or missing the playoffs. West is so nasty. If we were in the East I think we'd be easily finish in the top 4. So I'd take the over for us, but still think we're a 50/50 bet to make the playoffs.

I like the under for the Pelicans, like Davis... if he was not there I think that would be a 20 win team, I think he can get them to about 35 but not over 40.

The over for the Pacers (32? out East? they can beat that),

Under for the Lakers, they're awful, super mega awful, and they have a bad coach, and if they finish better than the bottom 5 we get their pick... so you can just about lock them in for the 4th or 5th worst record.

Over for the Hawks, for the same reason others mentioned.

The Pacers with Hill, CJ Miles, West and Hibbert? That would be a risky bet.

phrazbit · Post #12 » by **phrazbit** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 6:45 am

I think West and Hibbert (if he can even elevate his play to that of an average center) can get them to 30 wins, and I think they have a good coach. And I think Lance Stephenson was a real problem for them. The East is really bad, I think they can make their way to 35-40.

Superbone · Post #13 » by **Superbone** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 7:02 am

The over on 42.5 seems like easy money.

Post #14 » by **bwgood77** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 11:43 am

phrazbit wrote:I think West and Hibbert (if he can even elevate his play to that of an average center) can get them to 30 wins, and I think they have a good coach. And I think Lance Stephenson was a real problem for them. The East is really bad, I think they can make their way to 35-40.

i think some of the east will be quite a bit better, including Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Washington and Toronto should start off stronger, Cleveland obviously. It's not nearly as weak. Charlotte too. Indiana is one of the few that will get much worse. I love their coach, but their talent is awful. I do wonder who will pick up their scoring load though. Been wondering for fantasy purposes. CJ MIles?

They already had a terrible bench.

Maystack · Post #15 » by **Maystack** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 5:09 pm

I think people are sleeping on the Pels. Asik was a great addition, and now Anderson is healthy I think they can be a 50 win team.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using RealGM Forums mobile app

Post #16 » by **Miklo** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 5:33 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
Miklo wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:Yes, I think that would be a pretty good bet, especially if Bledsoe is healthy all year. The Hawks over would be the other bet I'd make. They won what, 39 without Horford?

Agreed on both counts. If I had to pick a couple "under" bets to make, it would probably have to be Heat and Pacers. Heat could be about right, but that team could end up looking kind of ugly too and now when Wade sits they could be in trouble. Pacers could be borderline comically bad.

I wonder if Wade will sit as much. He may embrace the roll of being THE MAN again and want to play more. I don't know if I would bet against them. Not with Wade and Bosh and another guy in Deng that could be rejuvenated.

Yeah, I have trouble predicting how Miami is going to look. The thing with Wade is, I think that he really *should* have his minutes limited. I just don't get the impression that he has a full tank anymore, and if he gets overplayed early it could cost him/them badly later in the season.

I don't like the PG situation on that team too much...Chalmers and Cole are both backup-caliber PG's to me. It's kind of unclear who will end up starting down the stretch - Chalmers probably at first, and that's probably the right call as he seems like more of a playmaker, but that team needs to rely more on a PG now that they don't have LeBron to carry the ball all the time.

In the paint, Bosh will have an opportunity to step it up but they could get beat up pretty badly in there. I'm not sold on McBob as a starter talent, and Birdman/Haslem/etc are role players.

Deng you're right, he could have a good year...or he could not, I just don't know! I guess I'm just picturing poor ball movement as a whole.

Post #17 » by **bwgood77** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 5:55 pm

Miklo wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
Miklo wrote:
Agreed on both counts. If I had to pick a couple "under" bets to make, it would probably have to be Heat and Pacers. Heat could be about right, but that team could end up looking kind of ugly too and now when Wade sits they could be in trouble. Pacers could be borderline comically bad.

I wonder if Wade will sit as much. He may embrace the roll of being THE MAN again and want to play more. I don't know if I would bet against them. Not with Wade and Bosh and another guy in Deng that could be rejuvenated.

Yeah, I have trouble predicting how Miami is going to look. The thing with Wade is, I think that he really *should* have his minutes limited. I just don't get the impression that he has a full tank anymore, and if he gets overplayed early it could cost him/them badly later in the season.
I don't like the PG situation on that team too much...Chalmers and Cole are both backup-caliber PG's to me. It's kind of unclear who will end up starting down the stretch - Chalmers probably at first, and that's probably the right call as he seems like more of a playmaker, but that team needs to rely more on a PG now that they don't have LeBron to carry the ball all the time.

In the paint, Bosh will have an opportunity to step it up but they could get beat up pretty badly in there. I'm not sold on McBob as a starter talent, and Birdman/Haslem/etc are role players.

Deng you're right, he could have a good year...or he could not, I just don't know! I guess I'm just picturing poor ball movement as a whole.

I think Wade goes back to being the primary ball handler like before LeBron and he will have increase in assists.

aIvin adams · Post #18 » by **aIvin adams** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 11:04 pm

Maystack wrote:I think people are sleeping on the Pels. Asik was a great addition, and now Anderson is healthy I think they can be a 50 win team.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using RealGM Forums mobile app

yep. there's a lot of different ways to count to 8 in the western conference. there's more than one permutation that doesn't include the suns.

it's gonna be tough for the suns to make the playoffs this yr but if they're healthy then they have a good shot.

Post #19 » by **lilfishi22** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 11:52 pm

That's a good bet. We overachieved last year considering we lost Bledsoe for half the season. But with Bledsoe playing more games, we could hit that 48 wins again.

Phystic · Post #20 » by **Phystic** » Fri Oct 3, 2014 6:12 pm

phrazbit wrote:I think we'll be as good as last year, win 45-50 games... and be a few breaks from either making or missing the playoffs. West is so nasty. If we were in the East I think we'd be easily finish in the top 4. So I'd take the over for us, but still think we're a 50/50 bet to make the playoffs.

I like the under for the Pelicans, like Davis... if he was not there I think that would be a 20 win team, I think he can get them to about 35 but not over 40.

The over for the Pacers (32? out East? they can beat that),

Under for the Lakers, they're awful, super mega awful, and they have a bad coach, and if they finish better than the bottom 5 we get their pick... so you can just about lock them in for the 4th or 5th worst record.

Over for the Hawks, for the same reason others mentioned.

Pelicans won 34 last year without Holiday and Anderson for most of the year and without another big man on the roster. If they stay healthy they shouldn't have a problem topping 40 wins. Holiday, Gordon, Evans, Davis, Asik, Anderson is a good top 6.

I don't think the Lakers are nearly as bad as people are making them out to be. They won't make playoffs but I don't see them being bottom 5 in the league. That is unless Kobe missed the season again. If he plays I don't see why they won't get around 35 wins. Lin, Nash, Kobe, Randel, Swaggy, Wes, Boozer, Hill definitely not great but they have enough pieces to get wins... again IF Kobe is there. Without him they are a total mess. But I mean they got 27 wins last year.