Dennis Smith Jr. – North Carolina State University (Fr.)
Age on Draft Day: 19 years, 7 months
Height: 6’ 3”
Wingspan: 6’ 3”
Standing Reach: 8’ 1”
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vs. Duke
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vs. UNC
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vs. Miami
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vs. Louisville
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vs. Virginia Tech
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vs. Georgia Tech
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Dennis Smith Jr vs. PGs (courtesy of kennydorglas)
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Dennis Smith Jr DX Profile
Introduction
Dennis Smith Jr is a very enigmatic prospect in the draft. Coming into the season, Smith Jr was rated as high as the #2 prospect in the draft, boasting elite athleticism at his position and a high skill level while drawing comparisons to prospects like pre-injury Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook. His draft stock has continued to fall as the season went on due to inconsistent play and NC State continuing to underperform on the season despite having a few couple of NBA prospects, and he’s since been passed in draft projections by Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, and De’Aaron Fox. Right now, I see him more as a ball dominant, scoring, pick-and-roll oriented PG like Markelle Fultz with a bit more Point Guard/floor general to his game. Like Fultz, Smith Jr. is very capable of creating shots for himself and his teammates (3% assisted 2-point shots on 30 2PTJ%, 48% assisted 3-point shots on 35.8 3PT%, 34.2 AST%), albeit not as efficiently, and is more successful in a modern pick-and-roll/pace-and-space oriented offense where he can abuse his quickness and explosiveness to get into the paint and distribute to shooter or attack the rim and get to the line (.500 FT attempt rate, highest among PG prospects). Because NC State’s talent underperformed expectations this year, Dennis Smith would be the focus of the defense night in and night out, immediately drawing help defenders when he got by his man and making it tough for him to flash the athleticism and playmaking when the shooters around him were arguably even less dangerous than the players Markelle Fultz had at Washington. However, when he flashed, it was very bright, posting 2 triple-doubles this season and some huge games against the likes of Duke and a solid backcourt in Miami.
Throughout an unsuccessful season at NC State, Dennis Smith Jr was the lone bright spot. With all the attention being on him, a lot of his flaws were put under a microscope. While he’s drawn comparisons to guys like Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose because of his athleticism, he doesn’t bring the size or length that they do, as he’s listed at a generous 6’ 3” with non-plus wingspan matching his height, potentially leading to a size disadvantage in the NBA. In addition, his intensity during games left a lot to be desired, particularly on the defensive end where he had instances of getting easy beat off the dribble by inferior athletes, falling asleep off the ball only to get beat to the rim, and flat out quitting on his team on occasion. This lackadaisical attitude may have come from a disappointing season that culminated in the head coach being let go toward the end of conference play (and asked to stay on to coach for the remainder of the year), the load that he had to shoulder to be even remotely competitive in games, the lack of talent around him, or other external factors, but in the end, he should be giving his all for his team regardless of the circumstances. Unlike Fultz, Dennis Smith doesn’t have the frame to help him compensate in the NBA and will likely need a bulldog mentality on defense to become a plus-defender, something I’m not sure that he’ll develop. One of the major issues with Dennis Smith Jr comes from his torn ACL at the start of his senior year in high school that kept him out of basketball for about a year and whether it can influence his longevity and success in the league, which will be up to medical teams to determine in the pre-draft process.
Offensive Ability
Dennis Smith Jr is confident in creating his own shot from everywhere on the court, but the selection of his shots and his efficiency for the volume can leave something to desire (37% of shots at the rim on 65 FG%, 25.8% 2-point jump shots at 30 FG%, and 37% 3-point shots on 36 3PT%). He has a habit of settling for jump shots, occasionally shots just inside of the 3-point line (arguably the worst shot in the game), and can get caught over-dribbling/trying to go 1-on-1 too frequently, but that could stem from the lack of offensive options around him. He needs to improve his shooting percentages (30% 2PTJ%, 35.8% 3PT%, 71.2 FT%), but as far as shooting form goes, he has a smooth, reasonably quick release with solid lift and height, so there’s no reason to think he’ll need to even speculate that he will need to adjust his form much outside of maintaining consistency and balance. His best aspect is his ability to get to the rim and in the paint, he has a great hesitation dribble to compliment his elite quickness and explosion that makes it very tough to match his pace. His FG% at the rim (65%) is as good as or better than any of his competition at PG despite his size, and he is better at getting to the free throw line than any of his competition by a good margin. At times, he can put his head down and drive into the defense to a fault, but in general he plays a methodical, controlled style of basketball where he flashes his athleticism to gain advantages instead of constantly barreling into the paint. One area I’d like to see him work on is his floater game, I don’t mind seeing him attack the rim for fouls, but when the level of competition and the athleticism of his opponents ramps up, he’s going to need a way to quickly get the ball up and over defenders in the paint to compensate for his height.
As a Point Guard, Smith Jr is a bit flashier than Markelle Fultz. Like Fultz, his strengths best match running a pick-and-roll offense where he uses his quickness and strength to get into the paint and find the open man or get to the basket, but Smith is more willing to gamble on the “wow-factor” plays like one-handed passes on the move, wrap arounds, no-look passes, etc. that can lead to more turnovers when it doesn’t work out. He does a really good job of drawing defenders, protecting the ball, seeing the floor, and getting the ball to the open man, but the ball can stick at times and he’ll dribble the air out of the ball trying to make something happen once the offense breaks down. He’s going to be a very ball-dominant player once he gets to the NBA, as he doesn’t do much running off screens or catching-and-shooting and typically opts to square his man up and take them off the dribble instead of taking what might be the easier look. As far as ability to create looks on offense from nothing, he’s up there with Markelle Fultz, but improving his shot selection and converting on those looks is going to be the next step for him as a pro.
Passing
Smith Jr can really “Wow” you with some of the passes he makes, especially on the move. He’s still good at making the simple pass to the open man when he draws doubles out of pick-and-rolls or attacking the basket, but the one-handed passes to cutters at the rim from the perimeter off the dribble and pocket passes to big men on the roll are just special. He makes amazing plays look effortless at times. All the flash hurts him at times, considering he turns it over more than any other projected point guard in the draft, but being comfortable and confident enough to make those plays is impressive in itself. I personally think that he will be a much more successful PG in the NBA with much better shooters, better big men, and more space than he had in college basketball considering his attacking style of play. He is good about playing inside of the offense and making the right play, at the next level he’s going to need to continue to work on his decision making and taking care of the ball. Smith has the skill and athleticism to be a very good PG in the league, it’s polishing the mental aspect of the game like when to make the safe play, what’s a good shot, when it’s time to take over, etc. that will decide how just how good he can be.
Defense
Along with the mental aspect of the game, defense is going to be another factor that holds him back from being one of the top guards in the league. He has the quickness and strength to match up in the NBA, but the height and lack of length is going to put him at a slight physical disadvantage. Luckily for him, he isn’t that much smaller than his competition and he has elite athleticism to help compensate, but until the he has the desire and puts in the effort to be a good defender, he’ll continue to be a negative impact on that end. Too many times this year I saw him get beat to the rim off the dribble by players that aren’t NBA-caliber athletes, much less at his level. Like I said with Fultz, I don’t picture him suddenly turning into a good defender when he starts competing against the best players at the best position in the NBA, but if he starts to take some pride in using that athleticism and strength to be a pest on defense, then he can at least have a non-negative impact and maybe develop into a good defender.
Fit with the Phoenix Suns
I have tried and will continue to try avoiding player comparisons, but Dennis Smith Jr reminds me so much of Bledsoe, and bringing him in would likely signal the near-end of the Bledsoe era in Phoenix. He has a similar size and stocky build to Bledsoe, the athleticism is like what Bledsoe had before injuries sapped some of it away, and (although recently Bledsoe has expanded his game) the main strength in their brain is their ability to get into the paint and draw defenders. Smith Jr. has a bit more of a Point Guard feel to me than Bledsoe and is more of a natural pick-and-roll player, but he is not the defender that Bledsoe has the reputation of being (even though Bledsoe really hasn’t been that good of a defender this season). I think having a coach like Watson that tries to preach defense, leadership, and hard work would be good for him, as Watson has done a good job helping Bledsoe develop as a leader and that’s one of my main worries for DSJ going forward in addition to defensive intensity because of how he supposedly quit on his team this year. I will say that Dennis Smith Jr. would surprise me a bit if we drafted him though; his injury history is no less severe than Bledsoe’s, which is his biggest knock, yet drafting another PG would mean Bledsoe is closer to being out the door than ever even though he’s played some of his best ball this year. Unless we see him as completely healthy for the future, a better option than Bledsoe, and available within our predicted window with our current young talent, of course.
Conclusion
In my opinion, Dennis Smith Jr. has become underrated in a lot of draft circles. He had a rough year record-wise at NC State, but he impressed several times with his individual performances and they were about as close as it gets to a dumpster fire in the ACC that culminated in Mark Gottfried getting fired during conference play after what was supposed to be a pretty good team severely disappointed. He’s someone I see benefitting most from having better teammates because he won’t get the same kind of attention that he was getting at NC State and he’ll have more space to get into the paint and better shooters to punish the defense for sinking in to help on him. I can see some of the Russell Westbrook/Derrick Rose comparison because of his athleticism and ability to be so successful in transition, but his overall game doesn’t have the same motor or constant attack mentality that I get/got from them.
Next Prospect: Jonathan Isaac
Thanks for taking the time to read, definitely discuss and feel free to leave any feedback/disagreements. The post on Jonathan Isaac should be done with and posted by the beginning of the Sweet 16, with Jayson Tatum following soon after.
