2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 6 - The Playoff Quest for a Title

[Stix]

The mods and their love and defense of the Beal trade is almost as ridiculous as my hate for the Beal trade. Truth lies somewhere in the middle.

[bwgood77]

But sometimes people act like Beal is terrible. He's overpaid but he is one of only a handful of guards putting up 18, 5 ast, 4 reb on over 60% shooting. I think the only other guards that are doing that are SGA, Luka, Kyrie, Curry and Book. IF you add a steal per game on there, it reduces to just SGA, Luka and Kyrie.

Bw I’ve seen you mention this before and you do realize that a big part of this is because Beal played in very few games this season right?

He played in like 50 games this season. It’s an 82 game season, if he missed 10 more games he’d have missed literally half the season.

Beal likely wouldn’t have maintained those stats you mentioned if he actually played like 75+ games. I’m not saying he hasn’t done it before in his career but he’s not the player now that he was when he was younger (obviously).

It’s like a 3pt specialist playing 10 games and maybe he was hot for 10 games and shooting 70% from 3 then suffers a season ending injury…at the end of the season, yeah he would technically have the highest 3pt shooting % (if he misses the min attempts criteria) but it lacks context of other players percentages being lower because of them having played more games.

All statistics and analytics are pointless without actual context behind it. Even the analytics guru Daryl Morey has said this before at one of the Sloan analytics conferences.

53 games is a very healthy season sample. He took 235 3s, averaging 43%. It's not like he played in 15-20 games or even only averaged like 10-12 ppg. Heck, Booker played in 53 last year.

[bwgood77]

Bw I’ve seen you mention this before and you do realize that a big part of this is because Beal played in very few games this season right?

He played in like 50 games this season. It’s an 82 game season, if he missed 10 more games he’d have missed literally half the season.

Beal likely wouldn’t have maintained those stats you mentioned if he actually played like 75+ games. I’m not saying he hasn’t done it before in his career but he’s not the player now that he was when he was younger (obviously).

It’s like a 3pt specialist playing 10 games and maybe he was hot for 10 games and shooting 70% from 3 then suffers a season ending injury…at the end of the season, yeah he would technically have the highest 3pt shooting % (if he misses the min attempts criteria) but it lacks context of other players percentages being lower because of them having played more games.

All statistics and analytics are pointless without actual context behind it. Even the analytics guru Daryl Morey has said this before at one of the Sloan analytics conferences.

I'd argue if not for this "system" we're running those stats would probably be better if not more achievable. Sure the efficiency might take a hit but he's *that* talented. Anyone who can put up B2B seasons averaging 30ppg+ on good efficiency is talented.

The way you're talking about it makes it seems like he's a bum that had a lucky stretch.

I’m saying he’s a bum but cherry-picking stats to show “only X amount of players averaged this” without mentioning games played lacks context.

Regardless, Bradley Beal is seen as one of the very worst contracts in the NBA by everyone except for handful of Suns fans. He proved how fragile he continues to be with his missed games this season and he’s owed a whopping $200 million still so his value is even less. Every sports analyst, including guys like Kevin O’Connor, Zach Lowe etc have all talked about how the Beal contract will be tough to move now and nobody will want it because Beal is obviously to have his body break down even more as he ages even more.

Nobody wants to pay Beal $50 million/yr for 30-40 games. Not even if he averages 40 pts, 20 rebounds and 10 assists a game.

His contract sucks but there are still a lot of overpaid people, and CP3 was washed and Shamet wasn't good. I would definitely not rather have had those guys with Paul making $30 million and Shamet making what he was. Then they would have expired and we would have been over the cap unable to do anything. It's not like we could have traded Paul for a couple of good players/contracts or Shamet for anything useful. It was a shock that we were able to get such a player for those guys. Booker will be making the same next year and they've been pretty much the same player their careers. Booker took the team nowhere either until he had Paul. While Beal had no supporting cast the last few years in Washington.

He had Westbrook one year but he was obviously not what he used to be and they still made the playoffs that year. Had we not had Paul and that success, Book's contract would be looked at quite similar next year. He's better and younger and has been less injury prone the last few years, so it's a better contract, but there are still a lot of overpaid players, and it will continue where if teams want to keep their best players, they have to overpay them. I personally think there are a some worse ones out there now like LaVine and Simmons for starters. But I know there are lists and a lot of people who think it's the worst and I do agree it's bad but it really didn't matter in our circumstances since we couldn't have used that money to sign other players and the guys we traded didn't have too much trade value. I also don't think 2nds have as much value as GoK or some do. I like having 2nd but it's very rare you get good players and we traded away two horrible contracts along with them. Crowder got 5 2nds.

The KD trade was the disastrous one since we gave up premier assets for him, 1sts that go through 2030 along with great role players...not great players..but great role players. KD had only played in like 137 games the previous 4 years, less than 35 a year and was near 35 years old. It was actually great that he played as many games as he did this year.

[bwgood77]

:roll: The mods and their love and defense of the Beal trade is almost as ridiculous as my hate for the Beal trade. Truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Not quite. I'm talking real numbers this year and his career and the fact we traded really negative contracts for him that we couldn't have used to get anything nearly as good....and if we kept them and let them expire we'd be over the cap anyway unable to do anything.

Your bitterness for Beal is unlike anything I've ever seen. I have wondered if your girlfriend left you for him or something.

[Stix]

:roll: The mods and their love and defense of the Beal trade is almost as ridiculous as my hate for the Beal trade. Truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Not quite. I'm talking real numbers this year and his career and the fact we traded really negative contracts for him that we couldn't have used to get anything nearly as good....and if we kept them and let them expire we'd be over the cap anyway unable to do anything.

Your bitterness for Beal is unlike anything I've ever seen. I have wondered if your girlfriend left you for him or something.

I honestly don't see how trading for the worst contract in the league is a win in any manner.

[bwgood77]

:roll: The mods and their love and defense of the Beal trade is almost as ridiculous as my hate for the Beal trade. Truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Not quite. I'm talking real numbers this year and his career and the fact we traded really negative contracts for him that we couldn't have used to get anything nearly as good....and if we kept them and let them expire we'd be over the cap anyway unable to do anything.

Your bitterness for Beal is unlike anything I've ever seen. I have wondered if your girlfriend left you for him or something.

I honestly don't see how trading for the worst contract in the league is a win in any manner.

If we would have had a lot of cap space when CP3 and Shamet expired, it wouldn't be, but getting him over nothing for the next few years is definitely a win. People are under some sort of false reality when they think we could have used that money for other players. The last year will be bad, assuming he exercises his player option, because KD would have expired, but the cap will also be a lot higher, and with Nurkic having expired and only having minimums, we will likely have quite a bit of cap space or his expiring he might waive his NTC if he knows we are not going to re-sign him, or if we are, maybe he declines it and we give him a longer cheaper contract.

[enigmatics]

They walked into this season thinking they were going to be so overwhelming offensively that the holes wouldn't matter. As it would turn out they were gravely mistaken. Just about everything looks bad NOW in the playoffs when the games really matter. That's why I take nothing from the regular season anymore.

But you COULD see it in the regular season. They played with no urgency all season. The roster looked flawed all season. Leadership lacked all season. Inconsistency all around.

Only a few extremely homer people thought we would be doing well in the playoffs.

I'm implying they even looked good at times and won games simply because it's the regular season and you're not always getting the opposing team's greatest effort.

[Puff]

The real problem with this team is that it certainly is not a happy family or so it appears.

We had that in spades prior to KD. Beal's acquisition just added another nail in the coffin.

Yeah, they all are professionals and should be able to get along but they just don't or at least do not appear to get along.


We basically changed out the entire roster in the past off season with all the great minimum player we had sign with us then at the trade deadline we dumped I think 4 of those new players at the trade deadline for O'Neale who quite frankly I am not as impressed with as many, so be it.

I remember our previous head coaches acknowledging players as the would enter and leave games. I see none of that from our current head coach or even the assistant coaches. It really appears that they really do not like or want to associate with each other. I remember our previous teams actually liking each other and hanging out with each other. Book seems to be more worried about his new fooking shoe than the team. He should be the leader of this team. He appears to be just one of the BIG THREE. I just don't see any improvement happening until Vogel is replaced by someone that can unite this team. They just do not seem to care about the team or each other.

Lots of folks trashed Monty but they were far more enjoyable to watch and follow than this current group.

[sunsbg]

Don't sleep on the Suns. Suns Big 3 are coming for you.

https://www.nba.com/watch/video/shaqtin-a-fool-let-the-playoffs-begin

[Djedefre]

They simply don't give a flyin' eff. Removing Vogel won't fix the Suns. We need a restart roster-wise too. Having said that, hiring a better, more capable coach is absolutely one of the priorities this offseason, along with proper GM.

[enigmatics]

Series isn't over.

But the worse part of the performance is it's not giving any semblance of hope. If it continues and/or they get swept - Ishbia has to strongly consider pivoting. Admitting failure allows the rebuilding process to start sooner - which was coming at some point anyways.

Man, I really miss the healthy CP3 days right now. In my eyes he's still the most important Suns player since the SSOL era.

[bwgood77]

Series isn't over.

But the worse part of the performance is it's not giving any semblance of hope. If it continues and/or they get swept - Ishbia has to strongly consider pivoting. Admitting failure allows the rebuilding process to start sooner - which was coming at some point anyways.

Man, I really miss the healthy CP3 days right now. In my eyes he's still the most important Suns player in the SSOL era.

Yeah, I loved Paul and he gained a ton of respect from me in his Suns year. I was already shocked at how much he turned around the Thunder and got them to the 5 seed when everyone thought they were tanking that year when they traded George and Westbrook the previous summer.

It's hard to have a leader like that and then have the absence. At the same time, I think and have heard plenty that many players get tired of him and tune him out, and he was no longer making an impact on the floor.

But the leadership is still missed big time. And a player like him is so rare it's not something you can just replace. In some respects if they were not going to get more of a leader at coach, I would have probably just kept Monty one more year....though I don't know how the players felt like under him.

It would have been great to get Udoka. Lue would be the absolute best case scenario right now because he is so good at getting stars to play in certain ways and accept adjusting their play at the betterment of the team. I honestly didn't think Harden would ever listen to anyone and adjust his play. Westbrook voluntarily requested to come off the bench. He is a great playoff coach.

I just don't expect them to trade big names this summer...I am curious what kind of offers there will be. And while I'd love to get some good picks back, I can't imagine us being better if we move the big names...in the future, yes, but now, the west is just too tough to trade the stars for pieces and expect to get better. I'm not saying I want to keep them. It just kind of feels like we are screwed. I just don't know what they can do to get a leader unless they find some great coach that the stars will really listen to. And if they keep the stars, I think they need to still try and upgrade the C spot. I really liked Nurkic this year but he's just not good enough defensively, particularly for the playoffs, and he can't finish. He is a solid rebounder and passer but I think we need some sort of defensive C. I just don't know if or why a team would trade a defensive C for Nurkic.

[Ghost of Kleine]

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The Whiteboard: Big questions for the Heat, Suns, Bucks and Luka Doncic

Today on The Whiteboard, our NBA team answers three big questions about the hot-shooting Heat, the floundering Suns and Bucks and the defensive chops of Luka Doncic.


By Ian Levy | 5:31 PM EDT

Whose championship reset this season is looking more absurdly naive — the Phoenix Suns or Milwaukee Bucks?

Kyle Delaney: I'd have to say the Phoenix Suns since their trio of Booker, Durant, and Beal has been so underwhelming this year. During this regular season, the Suns had a net rating of minus-11.6 in the fourth quarter, the lowest in the league. This doesn't scream championship to me. They're also up against Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round, which is no easy task. Sorry, Phoenix.

Nevin Brown: The Phoenix Suns championship reset is looking more naive today because it looked far more naive in the moment. You know what a team with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker doesn’t need? Bradley Beal on a $46.7 million contract that has a $57.1 million player option in 2026-27 with a full no-trade clause. Building a team around three players with the same offensive skillset and absolutely no depth was just as dumb in the summer of 2023 as it is in the spring of 2024. The Bucks' move for Damian Lillard made sense. They needed more offensive firepower and he was coming off maybe his best season. He averaged 32.2 points per game, made an All-NBA team in only 58 games played, and was a top-five offensive player in 2022-23. The Suns added an injury-prone player on a terrible contract who is maybe the 30th-best player in the NBA.

Ian Levy: I was wrong about both of these teams (I'm wrong about everything) so there is no moral high ground here for me. The Suns' mistakes were many — trading for Bradley Beal, thinking Jusuf Nurkic would be a meaningful enough defensive upgrade over Deandre Ayton, not squeezing another useful player out of that deal besides Grayson Allen (all due respect to Nassir Little), not squeezing another useful player out of the Bradley Beal trade. These are errors of overconfidence and player evaluation and they all compounded each other. The Bucks' mistakes were hiring Adrian Griffin which seemed more defensible at the time and then replacing him with Doc Rivers. Both teams are in big trouble but the true fool here is me for believing in either of them.

[thamadkant]

Rebuild ASAP.

Booker out too. Need to recoup picks.

Trade KD to Knicks and give them a championship shot. But ask for 2 to 3 first rounders and Randle, who could be traded for more picks or assets.

Trade Booker and Nurkic as a package, as that's the only way to get out of Nurkic's contract.
Ask Hawks for Murray, Hunter, Okongwu and filler... and maybe a first.

Trade Beal to 76ers for Harris and a first rounder and filler.

[MrMiyagi]

Series isn't over.

But the worse part of the performance is it's not giving any semblance of hope. If it continues and/or they get swept - Ishbia has to strongly consider pivoting. Admitting failure allows the rebuilding process to start sooner - which was coming at some point anyways.

Man, I really miss the healthy CP3 days right now. In my eyes he's still the most important Suns player since the SSOL era.

I sure wish it was. Unfortunately we've got 1 more game...

[sunskerr]

This is definitely the most miserable season I've experienced as a Suns fan. Even the Shannon Brown/Beasley team wasn't as miserable. We are old and irrelevant, capped out with arguably the worst contract in the league, no picks and no future.

This is the absolute worst position a franchise can ever be in, aside from moving or going under.

[Qwigglez]

This is definitely the most miserable season I've experienced as a Suns fan. Even the Shannon Brown/Beasley team wasn't as miserable. We are old and irrelevant, capped out with arguably the worst contract in the league, no picks and no future.

This is the absolute worst position a franchise can ever be in, aside from moving or going under.

I felt like that is where the Nets were beginning of last season when they didn't have any assets after trading for Harden. Then, they traded Harden for Ben Simmons, a 2022 first round pick, and a 2027 protected 1st. Not much in terms of assets, but not entirely the worst either.

Ishbia then came in on his noble steed like a valiant knight and saved the Nets franchise. Gifting them Bridges, Cam Johnson, Crowder, four future first-round picks with no protection, and a pick swap for KD and TJ Warren.

But yeah... now I feel the suns are in fact, in the worst position a franchise can ever be in.

[KdoubleDees23]

First 3 playoff games as a Phoenix Suns Center

Nurkic 7 ppg 8 rpg with absolute 0 defense !!!!

Ayton 22 ppg 12 rpg with a great defense!!!

Yep, even Ayton at 80% is better than this softie

[Sunlight]

Booker needs to be traded. I don't see that he has gas or motivation left at the age of 33-34 when the next rebuild starts again. And he is not that type of player who lead young talents by example. We have to collect the picks that we can get from him now.

Beal is injured all the time anyway, so the tank works even if he is on the team.

Durant will probably be traded to the Clippers in exchange for Kawhi. Which contract will be bought out at some point and ended his career.

[RaisingArizona]

First 3 playoff games as a Phoenix Suns Center

Nurkic 7 ppg 8 rpg with absolute 0 defense !!!!

Ayton 22 ppg 12 rpg with a great defense!!!

Yep, even Ayton at 80% is better than this softie

What's up, DA?