Lets look at this last year:
PER 36:
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Player FG FGA FG% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Kevin Durant 8.8 18.5 .476 8.4 9.3 .900 1.2 5.8 6.9 2.6 1.2 0.9 3.0 1.9 27.5
Greg Oden 6.6 10.9 .605 3.5 4.6 .766 4.6 8.2 12.8 1.4 0.6 3.4 2.8 6.0 16.7Durant is certainly a superior volume scorer. His shooting percentages are very good for his position and volume. His ability to get to the line is fantastic and he rebounds well for his position. As a primary scorer, he takes care of the ball and passes just fine.
While not a volume scorer, shooting 60% plus from the field is great, even if 90% of his field goals come from inside. He will undoubtedly get to the line more often as he is better integrated into the offense and 77% from the line is excellent for him. His rebounding is top notch. He's a different sort of rebounder that Howard or Camby, but on the same level. His shot blocking is tremendous as well, though I expect to see him attempt less blocks next year. Points per36 should exceed 20 with just two to three more FGA per game.
Advanced:
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Player PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg WS/48
Durant 26.2 .607 .514 3.8 17.9 11.0 13.5 1.8 1.9 11.7 32.0 118 104 0.238
Oden 23.1 .647 .605 15.6 28.3 21.9 6.7 0.9 7.7 17.8 20.7 118 100 0.214This is where it gets really interesting. Durant's PER is elite and Oden's isn't far behind. Oden's top three TS%, REB%, and BLK% bode well for him. Durant's scoring efficiency is excellent, especially for his USG% and his ORTG is great for his role as well. Oden's ORTG is really good and his DRTG was hovering around 90 for most of the year before a bad defensive stretch by the team before he got hurt. 100 will put him among the league leaders, anything approaching 90 puts him in prime Ben Wallace/David Robinson/Bill Walton territory defensively.
The most stunning statistic to me is the WS/48 ratings. Oden's PER is impressive, but IMO win shares are a better metric. This supports the assertion that Durant was the second most valuable player TO HIS TEAM behind Lebron James. Oden comes in sixth or seventh in the league without even being integrated into the offense.
Durant's improvement as a defensive player is also apparent. Rather than a liability, he has become a net positive defensively. The Thunder are horrific offensively and bad defensively with Durant on the bench. Overall, they are pretty good both offensively and defensively, but stellar at neither. This puts them roughly in the top third of the league with Durant and a questionable supporting cast.
The Trailblazers were in the top quarter offensively and right in the middle of the league defensively. Overall, they were in the top third of the league, just like the Thunder. In fact, the teams finished with exactly the same record.
Where were the Trailblazers with Oden?
The biggest single predictor of a win is FG%. Quite simply, the team who shoots the highest percentage usually wins. With Oden in, the Trailblazers had an eFG% of .525 while holding opponents to .479. With Oden out, the Trailblazers had an eFG% of .495 and allowed an eFG% of .506. By scoring very efficiently himself while defending both his man and the bucket well defensively, Greg's impact on shooting percentages were sizable on both ends of the floor.
Rebounding is another top three predictor of winning. Greg is a top three rebounder in the NBA when he's on the floor. In fact, our total rebounding percentage jumped from 50.4% to 54.0%, or from good to dominant.
In combination, Oden's offensive and defensive impact on shooting and rebounding made him a tremendously effective player. To summarize, he forces opponents to shoot a lower percentage and rebounds well to prevent second chances on defense, then converts a high percentage of shots while rebounding teammates' misses for prolonged offensive possessions.
Overall, Greg Oden can turn the Trailblazers into a top five team both offensively and defensively. Any team that can do that is a title contender or favorite and has a very good chance at 60+ wins.
With 20 healthy games from Greg and 300+ games of injuries to key players, the Trailblazers won 50 games. With 82 healthy games from Durant, 82 games from three other starters, and 76 games from the fifth starter, the Thunder won 50 games. Oklahoma City is not done improving, but the Blazers with a healthy Oden and fair to good team health are an elite NBA team.
