It's (very)viable that Blazers can offer max-contract in '13

[re49gb_2gho32fp]

The formula is a lot more straightforward than perhaps assumed. No impediments or uncertainties are involved, they are rather masters of their own summer 2013 fate. No cunning or difficult trades are required now or later.
The matter relies almost entirely on contract option decision for it's young players; Rabbit, Williams, Smith
Certainly some of you thought of this before, but it might have become even more glaring with the Elliot Williams situation. By abstaining from picking up their options, as well as all Jeffires + Pavlovich - Blazers are able to offer a max-contract next summer (remember, they start at 12.9m in yr 1).

The only quandary for the front-office is to evaluate the importance and/or impact of any of the aforementioned players to this teams future. Personally, i'd not extend them. partly becauses opening up cap-space and partly because they have been thoroughly unimpressive in their own ways.


Now, the question is of course, why would blazers want increased cap-space in 2013? To hunt what F/A?
Its pretty established that we're set at, depending on Lillard's signs - PG, wing (Batum) and a big man position (LA).
Needs are another upper-tier wing if Matthews Barton combo isn't the answer OR another upper-tier big man.

The most prominent candidates for the needs:

Evans (RFA), Stuckey (non-guaranteed '14)
Harden (RFA), Iguodala (PO) , Mayo (PO)
J. Smith (UFA), Millsap (UFA) , Hickson (UFA)
Pekovic (RFA), Bynum (UFA)
http://www.hoopsworld.com/2013-nba-free-agents/

The sg crop is significant.
Personally, i wouldnt feel too good about giving Harden a max-contract. not enough of a killer instict and doesnt seem to stay in shape in the off-season. No thanks.
Obv, stuckey isnt a max player, but i'd look at him and one of Smith/Millsap (also not max-players).

Ideally, they make a lopsided trade instead with that cap-space (Gasol wouldnt be too shabby).

[Wizenheimer]

your 12.9 million number for a max deal is incorrect

that 12.9 million number was the ceiling imposed for the 2011/12 season. There was some agreed restrictions on certain cap & salary levels.

Even though, for instance, the Blazers could only offer Roy Hibbert a maximum initial salary of 12.9 million, once the contract was approved, that initial salary was increased to $13,668,750, as a 5.8% increase for 12/13 over 11/12 was already part of the CBA agreement

and I'm pretty sure there can be no downard adjustment of that number, even if this season's BRI falls

So, at minimum, the max contract you are referring to will be $13,668,750. But that is only for free agents have under 7 years experience. For players with 7-9 years experience, the max is at least $16,402,500. And for players with 10 years or more, the max will be at least $19,136,250.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q16
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so, for Portland, this is their current 'committed salary' picture:

LaMarcus Aldridge 14,628,000
Nicolas Batum 11,295,250
Wesley Matthews 6,875,480
Damian Lillard 3,202,920
Joel Freeland 2,897,976
Meyers Leonard 2,222,160
Victor Claver 1,330,000
Ronnie Price 1,265,977
Will Barton 788,872

44,506,675

that number assumes, as did you, that the options for Babbitt, Smith, Williams, Jeffries, & Pavlovic are not picked up. I'd say that Jeffries and Pavlovic are almost certainly sure to be released. I hope Babbitt is, obe way or the other. And it's likely that the Eliot Williams saga is over. I would not be surprised if Nolan Smith is kept on the roster. His salary is only 1.4 million, and when you apply the roster charge instead of his salary, cutting him out only saves 900K in cap-space

so, bump Portland's total salary up to about 46 million.

Then there's the 'issue' of the Blazer's 1st round pick. Charlotte owns the pick but it's top-12 protected. Right now, I'd say there is a pretty good chance the Blazers will keep that pick this year. I suppose, if Lillard, Leonard, Freeland, Barton, & Claver all play about twice as good as we think they can, Portland could be in the playoff hunt. But that's not very realistic

Anyway, assume Portland keeps their pick, and it's around the 10th pick. That rookie salary in the first year would be 1.9 million

http://www.cbafaq.com/scale2011.htm

so now, Portland's total salary in around 48 million

But that's for only 11 players, so the Blazers would have to absorb a 490K roster charge

Putting their total team salary at about 48.5 million

( BUT - this all assumes that Portland will just let JJ Hickson go in the interests of cap-space. They might, but that does seem like a big -if- to me)

anyway, if the cap does not rise over this season (58.044 million), that would leave the Blazers with 9.5 million in cap-space, which of course, is not anywhere close to a max contract offer

Even to get to the space required for a max offer for an RFA player, the cap would have to climb to a around 63 million. Possible, but not likely

Of course, this assumes the Blazers make no changes to the roster (other then not picking up options) between now and next July. That is not likely either in my view. Of course, if the Blazers do make trades, those deals may just as likely increase 13/14 cap-space as decrease it

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I don't think Bynum or Iguodala will be available to us. Bynum will cost more than 13.5 and Iguodala will be unlikely to opt out, especially if he only gets 13.5 million. I also don't think Harden will be available to us, although we could afford a max to him, because IMO he is integral to the Thunders late game offense and success, and he wont be let go. I don't know if I would feel great throwing 13 million at any of the other guys, but I will look at them.


Smith seems to me to be an underrated player. He is flawed for sure, but he also can operate with the ball in his hand as well as bring top notch defense every night. It might be a little hard to incorporate him, but I would start him as a forward with Aldridge, and have Batum as a SG - this would allow us to bring Matthews off the bench at either wing position. With either Leonard or Freeland at center, we should still have pretty good spacing, although Smith is a below average shooter for the SF position.

Evans could be an interesting player for us. It would give us another ball handler and someone elite at getting to the rim. Getting to the rim is important (look at Miami and OKC), and so him and Lillard could be an interesting back-court, especially if we have good shooters at the rest of the positions. While Evans might be a flawed player, especially as a #1 option, I think Lillard would be a decent PG to set him up with and having Aldridge established, Evans might fit better as a 2ed option.

Pekovic might also be a fit for our team, especially because he brings hard nosed offensive rebounding and low post offense. He also might push Aldridge out further than we want, so ideally they would not see that many minutes together and have them be used more to counter when the other is on the bench. This would make it difficult to spend a lot on him, but late game situations could still use both players. It's always nice to have offensive rebounders when you are trying to make a last shot - gives you a chance for another last opportunity shot if you miss, and can be especially nice if you miss an important free throw.

I wouldn't be surprised to see one of our main targets be Millsap. We went for him before, and now it is even less likely that the Jazz match an offer to him. Like Smith, he could even play a little bit of SF, a better shooter but a lesser defender and not quite as good with the ball in his hand, and would let us match any small-ball team in the league. Doesn't help us against the Lakers or Howard though.

Stuckey, I was actually looking at clutch statistics recently and was surprised how well he rated in that metric. He came out above Love, Granger, Parker, Terry, Rose, Gay, Wade, Dirk. To be fair, unlike a lot of those guys, he did have a negative +/- (but he was also on worse overall teams than those guys), but he had good efficiency and very good 3 point percentages. On clutch shots he had a higher than average assist%, which means he would be a good end of game option next to another ball-handler (such as Lillard). His biggest weakness in clutch statistics was a pretty terrible A/T ratio - the only players who scored more in clutch situations with a worse ratio were Durant and Bargnani. All this is to say, Stuckey might be a very interesting 6th man for a playoff team - you wouldn't necessarily want him running your offense, but he would give you a late game option as an off guard. Would be a huge boost to our bench, but paying him starter money might be a problem.

Mayo/Hickson might be solid backup options if we have to use capspace. Wouldn't go out of my way to get them though.

[Blazer77]

Millsap for 9.5 million? Anybody think that might be a real possibility?

[Butter]

Unless the Blazers trade LMA, I think center or SG should be the target.

I don't think signing a FA is very likely. I think a sign and trade is a much better option. Look at teams like NY, LA, Boston. They all had high cap numbers, but they were able to bring hi salaried players.

Packaging a player like Matthes with the cap space could return a high salaried player who could really improve this team.

[GreenRiddler]

Millsap for 9.5 million? Anybody think that might be a real possibility?

I highly doubt it. along with Josh Smith who would be too expensive and not worth the money. I would find Tyreke Evans to be the logical target.

[Oden2]

Millsap for 9.5 million? Anybody think that might be a real possibility?

Absolutely but it all depends on the market. I don't see him as a 12 million dollar a year player but you never know, there's always a team that falls in love with a random free agent and overpays.

As for the OP you don't take the risk like that unless you've played guys enough to know that they're busts. With our younger guys especially, they've always played behind veterans and I'm at the point where I'd rather the Blazers accept their team options than take the risk that they materialize anywhere else. Ewill is an unknown in terms of injuries and that one is closer to 50/50. I think there are better ways to get cap space if the Blazers decide to go that direction than mortgaging our prospects, namely trading Wesley Matthews for cap space. Frankly I"m not even sure a Chris Paul level player would make the Blazers a top 2 contender so there's that aspect of it as well.

[The Sebastian Express]

Yes, Wesley is the key to a max contract in 2013. He has a reasonable contract with only two years left on it at that point, for around 14 million total.

[Butter]

Millsap for 9.5 million? Anybody think that might be a real possibility?

I highly doubt it. along with Josh Smith who would be too expensive and not worth the money. I would find Tyreke Evans to be the logal target.

Evans would be an interesting target. But I'd love to see an Iggy type SG next to Lilliard though. A defensive minded stopper who is an above average passer. The problem with Evans is that he dominates the ball like Roy did.I think a Bruce Bowens type player would be a better fit.

[Wizenheimer]

new Coach, Stotts, has explicitly said he believes 3 point shooting is critical for a team's success. So I'd imagine Tyreke Evans is way down on the list of desirable SG's for the Blazers

IMO, Evans became pretty over-rated based upon his rookie season, and it's pretty clear he's one of the worst perimeter shooting wings in the league. If Portland can't do better then Evans, they shouldn't do anything

[The Sebastian Express]

I agree that Evans is overrated, and has been on a decline since his rookie season. He is not someone I would wish to pursue.

[Jerkins]

Outside of Harden and Pekovic I'd have a hard time shelling out max money for any of the other players available.

Not at all interested in Millsap. He's undersized, doesn't fit the age of our core going forward, and we already have a 27 year old PF who is far better than he is.

Mayo would be interesting, but I see his biggest strength as being a 6th man type that gets starter minutes similar to Ginobili and Harden (although he is not at their level).

Evans, think brings the ability to create for himself and others, a skillset that we need in order to take pressure off of Lillard and Aldridge. But his inability to shoot, decline in production, and injury history are all red flags. For the money that he is going to demand I'd say we should pass.

This leaves us with our most likely option being an unbalanced trade. Maybe taking a contract on to get a player or lottery pick.

[re49gb_2gho32fp]

Smith is at best a career backup. If the brass decides that its more beneficial to have more capspace than extend contracts for marginal players, they will discontinue the cooperation with these players. Besides, blazers would still have early bird rights.

I did forget the 1st round pick, however. Either that or i was being subliminally optimistic about the season while writing this.
Consequently, it should be feasible to obtain enough money to throw at a good F/A (max might not even be needed).

[blazers73]

But I'd love to see an Iggy type SG next to Lilliard though. A defensive minded stopper who is an above average passer

Agreed this would be an ideal skillset and the role screams Iggy.

But Evans is a good defender and has ball handling ability. He can also create for himself which Iggy doesn't quite have. He is also younger and could fit into out core better. Then again Evans has always had potential, the question has always been if he has the drive and or ability to put it together.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Much of it depends on how the Blazers 2013 draft plays out. Besides Shabazz, I would really like to get Archie Goodwin - in which case there would be no need for Evans.