Lillard vs Roy...

[Agenda42]

Statistically speaking, Lillard is pretty close to Roy in year 1 impact. I think Roy was a bit better, but it's nothing major.

The big thing that Roy gave you and Lillard hasn't so far is clear team leadership. Everybody knew Roy was going to run the show after about a month.

[d-train]

The big thing that Lillard gives you that Roy doesn't is Lillard is still here and that is no small thing.

The big thing that Roy gave us right away that Lillard hasn't is a clear undisputable star player and that was no small thing. Of course, if Lillard develops into a star player by continually improving and overcoming his weaknesses, than it will be no big deal that he wasn't a star player right away. IOW, the jury is still out on Lillard.

[monopoman]

I'm sorry after watching games like this Lillard is better than rookie Roy.

Everyone here is thinking of Roy in season 3+ because that is fresh in their minds but they forget his rookie year where Roy was nowhere near the player he was in his 3rd season.

Lillard is pulling down some stats that other Blazer rookies haven't had in decades and other stats that Blazer rookies have never had. This kid is the truth and it remains to be seen who the overall better player is, after Lillard gets a few more season in the league we will be able to make direct comparisons to Roy's peak though. When comparing rookie season vs. rookie season though its pretty much Lillard by a decent amount.

[ADawg22]

Yeah I'm definitely inclined to say Lillard is better than rookie Roy, and even has a chance to be better than prime Roy. Kid is a star, you can just see it.

[DusterBuster]

The big thing that Lillard gives you that Roy doesn't is Lillard is still here and that is no small thing.

The big thing that Roy gave us right away that Lillard hasn't is a clear undisputable star player and that was no small thing. Of course, if Lillard develops into a star player by continually improving and overcoming his weaknesses, than it will be no big deal that he wasn't a star player right away. IOW, the jury is still out on Lillard.

Revisionists history at it's finest. Roy was no more of a "star" in his rookie season than Lillard is now. They're garnering equal amounts of praise for their rookie campaigns. In fact, you can arguably say Lillard has gotten MORE praise his rookie year than Roy just by the simple fact that Roy missed 1/4th of his rookie year with injuries whereas Lillard looks primed to play in all 82 games this year.

[Case2012]

Sure its an interesting thread, but what I meant was this, Roy was like watching a second coming of jordan, at least for me. I believed anything could happen when he was on the court. I guess I feel like this thread is somewhat blasphemous in that respect. After growing up on the blazers, Roy rekindled my love of basketball and restored my faith in the blazers organization. So I guess I'm more than a little surprised this debate is taking place. So maybe it's just a personal thing.

Having said that, I am a huge Lillard fan and I think he has all star written all over him and he does have some of those same electric qualities that Roy did. He's definitely a special talent, who I think will really flourish once he gets a second go to scorer/playmaker on the wrong next to him. We've seen a small sample of this with Maynor.

It's funny but Jamal would have been a perfect fit this season.

[DusterBuster]

Sure its an interesting thread, but what I meant was this, Roy was like watching a second coming of jordan, at least for me. I believed anything could happen when he was on the court. I guess I feel like this thread is somewhat blasphemous in that respect. After growing up on the blazers, Roy rekindled my love of basketball and restored my faith in the blazers organization. So I guess I'm more than a little surprised this debate is taking place. So maybe it's just a personal thing.

But what you're doing is what a lot of people are doing. They're combining what Roy meant as a symbol for Portland/Blazer basketball with what he actually produced on the court. A lot of people like yourself were very disenfranchised with the Blazers before Roy got here. He was the first glimmer of hope that there was going to be an end to the JailBlazer era and that he was going to be able to bring the team out of that dark era.

That's great and shouldn't be forgotten, but it's also not fair to compare that aspect of Roy's rookie season to Lillard's rookie season since it was an external circumstance. The ones of us who are saying that Lillard is having a better rookie year are disassociating that "symbol" that Roy represented in the 06-07 year with what he actually produced on the floor and in the media. With that in mind, Lillard is quite handily having a better rookie season.

It's funny but Jamal would have been a perfect fit this season.

Yeah, he probably would have been, especially since he would have had a defined role. One could argue that maybe it would have been better for Portland had he opted into that final year (even though it was clear he never had any plans to do it). Had he opted in, Portland wouldn't have had the money to go for the "home run swing and a miss" with Hibbert and maybe would have gone for a more reasonable "base hit" with a guy like Asik. Assuming they still would have done the Felton deal which lead to Maynor, Portland could have had this roster right now.....

Lillard/Maynor
Matthews/Crawford
Batum/Claver
Aldridge/Hickson
Asik/Leonard

Not sure Portland would have been able to sign Asik and Hickson, but whatever, just theorizing for kicks.

Back on topic, I know he was a huge lightning rod for a lot of fans too, but where I'm ultra-critical of Felton, I'm more inclined to be forgiving of Crawford. He was a bad fit and was asked to basically take over the void left by Roy suddenly retiring. Then when it was clear that wasn't going to happen and Felton was dribbling every ball off his foot possible, Crawford's role kept shifting. He kind of got caught in the snowball that was rolling down the mountain.

Obviously people hated his shot selection, but I guess I just always had a more realistic expectation of what he was going to bring. I knew that was part of his game and he was going to have some frustrating nights, so I just kinda got what I expected from him, just wish he would have had a more defined role on the team.

[monopoman]

Sure its an interesting thread, but what I meant was this, Roy was like watching a second coming of jordan, at least for me. I believed anything could happen when he was on the court. I guess I feel like this thread is somewhat blasphemous in that respect. After growing up on the blazers, Roy rekindled my love of basketball and restored my faith in the blazers organization. So I guess I'm more than a little surprised this debate is taking place. So maybe it's just a personal thing.

Having said that, I am a huge Lillard fan and I think he has all star written all over him and he does have some of those same electric qualities that Roy did. He's definitely a special talent, who I think will really flourish once he gets a second go to scorer/playmaker on the wrong next to him. We've seen a small sample of this with Maynor.

It's funny but Jamal would have been a perfect fit this season.

I am a huge Roy fan don't get me wrong he would have to work very hard to drop off as one of my favorite players of all time. I think he had an opportunity Lillard didn't have though in that he came into a team with no identity and that was trying to recover from "the dark days" and was nearly in a complete rebuild.

Lillard joins a team that has some working pieces and is not in a full on rebuild. He has had to bust his ass though to prove that he is quite possibly the best player on the team despite being one of the youngest and a rookie that takes a lot. The kid has alot of the same qualities I liked about Roy, tough as nails, hard worker, fairly humble, cares more about winning then personal stats etc...

I don't feel that I am doing a disservice to Roy by giving him the props he has rightfully claimed in his rookie year. This type of talk reminds me of great presidents though, guys like FDR and Lincoln wouldn't have anywhere near the accolades if they were presidents in a more tranquil time of America. The greatest Presidents needed problems to face and conquer to become great. Roy did the impossible he made Portland care about the Blazers again and that was special, but Lillard will never likely have that same opportunity because of circumstance. Therefore the legend of Roy will always have more of a mystique to it, especially since injuries really kept him from reaching an even greater potential.

[Case2012]

I don't feel that I am doing a disservice to Roy by giving him the props he has rightfully claimed in his rookie year.

It's not that I think people are doing a disservice by giving Lillard his props, which he is owed. I just felt that (at the time) it was just kind of ridiculous to even make the comparison after what Roy had done in his time here. Obviously I'm a bit sentimental about the Roy era, but why can't some things just stand alone? Roy is Roy, and Lillard is Lillard you know? Whatevs, that's my 2 cents.

One could argue that maybe it would have been better for Portland had he opted into that final year (even though it was clear he never had any plans to do it). Had he opted in, Portland wouldn't have had the money to go for the "home run swing and a miss" with Hibbert and maybe would have gone for a more reasonable "base hit" with a guy like Asik. Assuming they still would have done the Felton deal which lead to Maynor, Portland could have had this roster right now.....

Lillard/Maynor
Matthews/Crawford
Batum/Claver
Aldridge/Hickson
Asik/Leonard

This^
great theory. I can easily see this happening had Jamal opted in. I can also easily see us with home court in the playoff...Damn.

[Billy]

At this point of the season, I would say that Lillard has had a more impressive rookie year than Roy.

Both felt like they were in a rather clear trajectory to be a top player at their position. Despite Roy's rookie year not being as impressive, I think most saw the brilliance and command he had in his game and that soon he'd be a top 5 player at SG. I think many people are coming around to the fact that if he's not in the top 5 at PG right now (I don't think he's quite there, but that's more to do with the other players on the list than his play), he's certainly likely to be there in the next couple of years.

I think the symbolism of Roy is helped a great deal by the timing of his arrival. Coming off an era in which Telfair and Khryapa were your future, it was almost jarring to see a player with a true star-like trajectory. I think had Lillard come after this year, where you would have had the forgettable year last year, and possibly a season in which you'd be playing d-league level guys at PG and probably losing gobs of games, Lillard I think would be viewed in much the same light. Instead, Lillard kind of comes in after a rough year, with a pick that we didn't "earn" and makes a team that would be rather bad into a fringe playoff team. To double that, I think having a guy as special as Roy come in just 7 years ago is still fresh in people's minds.

A lot is obviously going to come down to health. *knock on wood* So far Lillard has been very durable, compared to Roy who never had a healthy season. IMO if he stays healthy the entirety of this year, the comparison of rookie seasons won't be close unless you begin factoring in the symbolism.

[Case2012]

Lillard is scoring 24.8 points and tallying 6.5 assists on 52.9 percent from the field and 45.5 percent from three-point range during March.
-Bleacher report

[d-train]

Both felt like they were in a rather clear trajectory to be a top player at their position. Despite Roy's rookie year not being as impressive, I think most saw the brilliance and command he had in his game and that soon he'd be a top 5 player at SG. I think many people are coming around to the fact that if he's not in the top 5 at PG right now (I don't think he's quite there, but that's more to do with the other players on the list than his play), he's certainly likely to be there in the next couple of years.

Lillard is not an obvious future top 10 player or even a top 5 PG. He certainly has shown enough ability to be a good NBA PG, but he doesn't have more ability than a slightly above average NBA player does. He is only going to be as good as he makes himself through hard work. Maybe he is a very hard worker and by improving his game, he can be an all-star someday. I think that is a realistic goal but who can really say how hard Lillard is going to work to improve. And, who can say how many years he will be a hard worker.

Roy was immediately a top NBA player. He didn't need to improve to be a top 10 player. Roy only needed to stay healthy and he was already a top 10 player.

I suppose a lot of this discussion is fueled by the erroneous belief that Lillard is destined to be a top 5 PG. Well, I know better than to argue about the ordained future improvement of the latest round of NBA up and coming stars.

[monopoman]

Both felt like they were in a rather clear trajectory to be a top player at their position. Despite Roy's rookie year not being as impressive, I think most saw the brilliance and command he had in his game and that soon he'd be a top 5 player at SG. I think many people are coming around to the fact that if he's not in the top 5 at PG right now (I don't think he's quite there, but that's more to do with the other players on the list than his play), he's certainly likely to be there in the next couple of years.

Lillard is not an obvious future top 10 player or even a top 5 PG. He certainly has shown enough ability to be a good NBA PG, but he doesn't have more ability than a slightly above average NBA player does. He is only going to be as good as he makes himself through hard work. Maybe he is a very hard worker and by improving his game, he can be an all-star someday. I think that is a realistic goal but who can really say how hard Lillard is going to work to improve. And, who can say how many years he will be a hard worker.

Roy was immediately a top NBA player. He didn't need to improve to be a top 10 player. Roy only needed to stay healthy and he was already a top 10 player.

I suppose a lot of this discussion is fueled by the erroneous belief that Lillard is destined to be a top 5 PG. Well, I know better than to argue about the ordained future improvement of the latest round of NBA up and coming stars.

Roy had the same "lack of athleticism" as Lillard did Roy only became a top player due to his work ethic. Neither of these guys are LBJ freaks athletically that are a once in a generation physical specimen. To pretend that you were sure Roy would be a top player in his rookie season is a joke. NO ONE said this on any forum I ever read at the time, 99.9999% of the hardcore fan base thought he had a shot to be a great player but not a single one was talking multiple all-star and top 10 player in the NBA when he was in his rookie year.

In fact Lillard's stats have shown more dominance in his rookie season then Roy did, the stats PROVE this fact dude. Roy had some great games in his rookie season, don't get me wrong but Lillard has shown more consistency and more great games.

[Case2012]

Both felt like they were in a rather clear trajectory to be a top player at their position. Despite Roy's rookie year not being as impressive, I think most saw the brilliance and command he had in his game and that soon he'd be a top 5 player at SG. I think many people are coming around to the fact that if he's not in the top 5 at PG right now (I don't think he's quite there, but that's more to do with the other players on the list than his play), he's certainly likely to be there in the next couple of years.

Lillard is not an obvious future top 10 player or even a top 5 PG. He certainly has shown enough ability to be a good NBA PG, but he doesn't have more ability than a slightly above average NBA player does. He is only going to be as good as he makes himself through hard work. Maybe he is a very hard worker and by improving his game, he can be an all-star someday. I think that is a realistic goal but who can really say how hard Lillard is going to work to improve. And, who can say how many years he will be a hard worker.

Roy was immediately a top NBA player. He didn't need to improve to be a top 10 player. Roy only needed to stay healthy and he was already a top 10 player.

I suppose a lot of this discussion is fueled by the erroneous belief that Lillard is destined to be a top 5 PG. Well, I know better than to argue about the ordained future improvement of the latest round of NBA up and coming stars.

I totally disagree with your assertion that Lillard doesn't have the ability to be better than a good NBA pg. He already is better than average NBA pg, and he has all star written all over him.

I find it somewhat bewildering that you question his work ethic when he went from not seeing the court at his prep school to being talked about as a late second rounder to a top 6 pick in a "loaded" draft class to having the rookie of the year award sewn up. I agree with you on your point about how far he goes being predicated on his willingness to work though. To me that should be the obvious reason why he'll eventually be a top ten point.

Have you not see his workouts?

The Oregonian had this to say about Lillard's rookie campaign yesterday.

All of it has happened as he has performed to a near-All-Star level, with first-year numbers that compare favorably to those posted by recent Rookie of the Year point guards, including New Orleans’ Chris Paul in 2005-06 (16.1 points, 7.8 assists, 43 percent from field, 38-44 record), Chicago’s Derrick Rose in 2008-09 (16.3 points, 6.1 assists, 47.5 percent field, 41-41 playoff team) and Cleveland’s Kyrie Irving last season (21.8 points, 6.4 assists, 46.9 percent, 21-45 ).

Quite the comparisons.

[Joshumitsu]

Lillard is having a better rookie season, statistically speaking.

However, I would say Roy controlled the game much more than Lillard did. This was likely the result of his playing style meshed with Nate McMillan's system. In that aspect, I would say Roy's 'intangibles', leadership abilities, unorthodox playing style, and his ability to control the tempo while methodically break defenders down makes his rookie form much more dynamic than Lillard's. Z-Bo was supposed to be our franchise player. Roy came in and changed that within a matter of days and weeks.

Then again, it's hard to compare star shooting guards with star point guards due to their styles/roles within systems/etc.

[Clarity]

Lillard is not an obvious future top 10 player or even a top 5 PG. He certainly has shown enough ability to be a good NBA PG, but he doesn't have more ability than a slightly above average NBA player does. He is only going to be as good as he makes himself through hard work. Maybe he is a very hard worker and by improving his game, he can be an all-star someday. I think that is a realistic goal but who can really say how hard Lillard is going to work to improve. And, who can say how many years he will be a hard worker.

Roy was immediately a top NBA player. He didn't need to improve to be a top 10 player. Roy only needed to stay healthy and he was already a top 10 player.

I suppose a lot of this discussion is fueled by the erroneous belief that Lillard is destined to be a top 5 PG. Well, I know better than to argue about the ordained future improvement of the latest round of NBA up and coming stars.

Interesting points, Lillard lacks elite lateral explosiveness otherwise he would have been the run away #1 pick last June. That will keep him from ever being Derrick Rose explosive but Lillard's jump shot is already elite. I'd take shooter with average explosion over an athlete with an average or below jumper. Lillards bball IQ is already elite. Hes a leader, cool & calm under pressure. He was the Blazers leader the moment he stepped in that locker room.

Lillard will never be able to do some of the things Roy could do, thats not a knock on Lillard because Roy could do most everything above average but i'd bet on Lillard becoming an elite top 2 or 3 PG in the next 2 or 3 years. Lillard is a player who makes the needle move on your win/loss record by himself. Not a lot of players are like that. Roy was like that (see 20 something wins to 41 wins to 54 wins by virtually himself). I dont think you have to be elite to be this player either. Chauncey Billups is a prime example of that.

[Khazim]

By now I've learned not to underestimate Lillard. I liked Lillard from the get go, but I never saw him as being more than an above average point guard, maybe Mo Williams in his prime. I liked his game, thought he was a good addition to our team, was happy to have him, but also thought he was already at his ceiling and likely to never improve. Boy was I wrong. He has already improved dramatically just in a few months during the season. I can only imagine what he'll be capable of with some time to really study tape and work on his weaknesses (which are surprisingly few). Just look at how much he's improved his shot selection, attacking the basket, and (while still very inconsistent) his defense.

Roy was amazing, and Lillard may never be quite that good, but I also wouldn't put it past him. With his attitude, work-ethic, and what hes shown already, I think the sky is the limit. And most importantly for me, I like Lillards game a lot more.

[Clarity]

By now I've learned not to underestimate Lillard. I liked Lillard from the get go, but I never saw him as being more than an above average point guard, maybe Mo Williams in his prime. I liked his game, thought he was a good addition to our team, was happy to have him, but also thought he was already at his ceiling and likely to never improve. Boy was I wrong. He has already improved dramatically just in a few months during the season. I can only imagine what he'll be capable of with some time to really study tape and work on his weaknesses (which are surprisingly few). Just look at how much he's improved his shot selection, attacking the basket, and (while still very inconsistent) his defense.

Roy was amazing, and Lillard may never be quite that good, but I also wouldn't put it past him. With his attitude, work-ethic, and what hes shown already, I think the sky is the limit. And most importantly for me, I like Lillards game a lot more.

Great post. I dont think people have noticed enough about his focus more on attacking the rim since the All Star break, its the main reason his stats have taken the insane jump they have.

[kidleader]

biggest improvement i've seen from him this season is his shot selection. no more fadeaway 2's and he's no longer forcing those step back 3's. he was making them at a decent rate but it's just not a good shot to take regardless.

[kidleader]

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