Thompson frustrated over lack of offer from Warriors

[TBpup]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--stalling-contract-talks-between-thompson--warriors-causing-frustration--201359342.html

Wes is great but Klay is one SG I'd take over him. The Blazers will have the money to offer if they wanted to.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I think Klay is one of those guys who is going to get way overpaid. I like him as a player, but to fulfill his role (basically elite 3&D guy) I would rather moneyball it and find an undervalued and underpaid player. Only reason I would think about resigning Matthews for 7-9 million is his chemistry and leadership with the team, but even so I am going no where near a max for a player in that role.

[dreamcloud]

Give me Wes over Klay for this team. Attitude, swag, chemistry and personality along with his basketball skills that Wes brings to this team makes this team better than Klay would in my opinion. Not to mention, it'd be cheaper to get Wes

[Norm2953]

One way or another, the Warriors will end up giving Thompson his max contract.
He's a restricted free agent in 2015 and the Warriors hold all of the cards in
talks with his agent.

[DusterBuster]

I like Klay just fine, but he's just going to be RFA, correct? If so, then it's just going to be the normal situation that it usually is. He'll get irritated, the Warriors will let him stew and sit on their hands for the season is over, let him go out and get a offer and then match it.

[PDXKnight]

One way or another, the Warriors will end up giving Thompson his max contract.
He's a restricted free agent in 2015 and the Warriors hold all of the cards in
talks with his agent.

Yup no way do they let him walk. I wouldn't take my chances, just focus on resigning the supporting cast if it becomes painfully obvious that we have no chance with marc gasol.

[zzaj]

Agreed...not really worth worrying about Klay. He'll be a warrior for a long time.

Ps. Am I the only one who thinks there isn't a big money difference between Gasol & Lopez?!

[ebott]

If we're gonna dump everybody and go after a max free agent I'd rather the Blazers go after Marc Gasol than Clay Thompson. I feel like if you have an elite point guard, power forward and center you have a chance of finding guys willing to sign for the minimum that can fill in the wings. It's much harder finding a big man on the cheap.

[GreenRiddler]

I don't really like Klay over Wes...at all. Wes is gonna get worse before Klay does, but right now Wes is better. Just the ESPN hype train makes it look worse. I also wouldn't pay Klay 5mill more than Wes per year.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 02&y2=2014


Wes>Klay at : TS% EFG% Free throw Rate, PER, AST%, TO% has a better Usage percentage. Offensive rating and WinShare. Only made 20less threes last year.

Also I think Klay's D is overrated, he could never do to harden what Wes did.

[d-train]

If we're gonna dump everybody and go after a max free agent....

I don't believe the plan is to dump everybody. The plan is to build the best possible team without being constrained by existing contracts. Blazers can resign all the same players we have now but we also have the option of signing other players if better options are available. Normally, when players like Lopez and Matthews are free agents, their team needs to resign them regardless of cost because the alternative is to lose the player and there is no salary cap room to sign a replacement player. This is how the CBA causes so many mediocre players to get overpaid. Olshey has the Blazers in a position not to be stuck by that CBA trap. We will have enough cap room to have options and fallback options.

Additionally, we can combine salary slots to create max room if a truly exceptional player is available.

I started by saying we don't have to dump anyone and that's true but we do have to limit our committed salaries to only deeply discounted bargains. This means we can't guarantee money to Leonard and T-Rob even if the amount is reasonable. The option on Barton can be kept because it's an option until July 31, which means the option doesn't expire until the very moment prospective free agents are signing their contracts. Lillard, CJ, and Kaman are deeply discounted bargains so we commit to them. Kaman is a bargain because it costs $1M to get out of his contract.

[Soulyss]

It all depends on pricepoint... at Wes's current price point, it's Wes by a mile... if Wes wants 10M a year next year... then it's a different conversation.

[ebott]

If we're gonna dump everybody and go after a max free agent....

I don't believe the plan is to dump everybody. The plan is to build the best possible team without being constrained by existing contracts.

I concur.

Blazers can resign all the same players we have now but we also have the option of signing other players if better options are available. Normally, when players like Lopez and Matthews are free agents, their team needs to resign them regardless of cost because the alternative is to lose the player and there is no salary cap room to sign a replacement player. This is how the CBA causes so many mediocre players to get overpaid. Olshey has the Blazers in a position not to be stuck by that CBA trap. We will have enough cap room to have options and fallback options.

I think there's a solid chance this is what happens. Even if we end up just holding serve you've gotta give Niel credit for trying.

Additionally, we can combine salary slots to create max room if a truly exceptional player is available.

It'll be interesting to see if there's any mid-season opportunity for such a move. I'm thinking of a deal like the one we made for Pippen back in 1999. I think that's our most likely chance for an upgrade.

I don't think Thompson or any of the other guys drafted in 2011 are worth losing our chance to re-sign Mathews and Lopez in the hopes their team doesn't match. I'm not sure even Marc "best free agent available" Gasol is worth it even if signing him is a sure thing.

I started by saying we don't have to dump anyone and that's true but we do have to limit our committed salaries to only deeply discounted bargains. This means we can't guarantee money to Leonard and T-Rob even if the amount is reasonable. The option on Barton can be kept because it's an option until July 31, which means the option doesn't expire until the very moment prospective free agents are signing their contracts. Lillard, CJ, and Kaman are deeply discounted bargains so we commit to them. Kaman is a bargain because it costs $1M to get out of his contract.

We'll find out pretty quick here with Leonard and T-Rob's options.

[DaVoiceMaster]

The new TV deal may make it possible to go after a max contract while keeping LMA and either Lopez or Matthews or both. If you're gonna go after a max contract, would you go after Klay Thompson or Kawhi Leonard?

[PDX MM]

I don't think we pursue signing Leonard to a max when we are on the hook for 12 mil with Batum. Besides wouldn't the Spurs just match?

[Wizenheimer]

The new TV deal may make it possible to go after a max contract while keeping LMA and either Lopez or Matthews or both. If you're gonna go after a max contract, would you go after Klay Thompson or Kawhi Leonard?

I don't know how exactly that deal will affect the cap...as far as how much in what year

I do believe the first year we see the impact will be 2016-17. And it's very likely that the cap won't jump 25 million in one season. Maybe 50-60% of that

so, assume an 80 million cap in 2016-17 (might be too high)

say Aldridge signs a max deal next summer but only for 1 or 2 seasons as he's smart enough to want to take advantage of the new cap-levels. Maybe a 3 year deal with a player option after the 1st season

and say Lopez does something similar. So does Matthews

then, the Blazer's 16-17 cap-situation could look something like:

21 million - Aldridge
20 million - Lillard
11 million - Lopez
8 million - Matthews
3.2 million - McCollum
18.5 million - Batum (cap-hold)
1.2 million - either the 2015 first or the 2016 first
2.8 million - roster charges

85.7 million...that's almost 6 million over the cap

I think a lot of people are assuming that teams will have some wide window of time to use the big bump in cap-space to really upgrade their rosters

but those window might not even exist for some teams....not unless they gut their rosters now. Lebron is leading the way for players bu only signing a 2 year deal this summer. And teams have been signing players to shorter contracts under this new CBA. The time frame for rotating from lower-cap contracts to the higher-cap contracts is going to be pretty short for most teams. Probably one off-season for most

Portland might not even have that because of the timing of the contracts on their core players
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as far as next summer....I know a few Blazer fans think Olshey is trying to create cap-space. I don't think that's the plan at all. I don't think there is really any set plan. He's just trying to keep options open

next summer:

20 million - Aldridge (salary or cap-hold)
12.2 million - Batum
4.2 million - Lillard
2.5 million - McCollum
2.2 million - Blake
1 million - 2015 first
1 million - Kaman
10 million - Lopez (salary or cap-hold)
8 million - Matthews (or 11 million cap-hold
2.2 million - 4 roster charges

63.5 million....which is more then the current cap. If you even assume that the cap goes up to 68 million, which is more then it went up this last summer, that still leaves the Blazers with only 4.5 million in space....less then an MLE

by renouncing Matthews the Blazers only create a max of 13 million in space, which will be significantly less then a rookie-scale MLE. Not only that, Portland isn't going to renounce the rights to Matthews in order to make an offer on a RFA like Klay Thompson. Golden State will match. So would San Antonio with Leonard
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and by the way, going back to 2016-17...that's the last season before either side, owners or player's union, can opt-out of the current CBA. The new president of the player's union has already said the players seem intent on opting out. So assumptions about what all this new TV revenue means could be premature

[d-train]

next summer:

20 million - Aldridge (salary or cap-hold)
12.2 million - Batum
4.2 million - Lillard
2.5 million - McCollum
2.2 million - Blake
1 million - 2015 first
1 million - Kaman
10 million - Lopez (salary or cap-hold)
8 million - Matthews (or 11 million cap-hold
2.2 million - 4 roster charges

63.5 million....which is more then the current cap. If you even assume that the cap goes up to 68 million, which is more then it went up this last summer, that still leaves the Blazers with only 4.5 million in space....less then an MLE

by renouncing Matthews the Blazers only create a max of 13 million in space, which will be significantly less then a rookie-scale MLE.

I doubt Lopez will get a deal starting at $10M. There will be at least 6 free agent centers that are better than Lopez next summer. Even if all 6 centers resign with their team, to have a bidding war Lopez needs at least 2 teams with cap room to be shopping for an overpaid center. And, Monroe is not included in the 6 better centers. It's not shaping up to be a sellers market for Lopez. Blazers will not need an overpaid center.

By renouncing Lopez and Matthews, Blazers have $22M in cap room

By trading Batum to a team with cap room and renouncing Lopez and Matthews, Blazers have $34M in cap room

And, renounced players can be unrenounced if Blazers make an offer to a RFA that falls through

Blazers will definitely have an abundance of cap room if they want it.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

The new TV deal may make it possible to go after a max contract while keeping LMA and either Lopez or Matthews or both. If you're gonna go after a max contract, would you go after Klay Thompson or Kawhi Leonard?

Leonard, easily... not that I see any chance of that happening.

[Wizenheimer]

I doubt Lopez will get a deal starting at $10M. There will be at least 6 free agent centers that are better than Lopez next summer. Even if all 6 centers resign with their team, to have a bidding war Lopez needs at least 2 teams with cap room to be shopping for an overpaid center. And, Monroe is not included in the 6 better centers.

"at least 6 not counting Monroe"....really?

I see Marc Gasol and Deandre Jordan. Maybe Omer Asik, but I don't know that I would trade Lopez for Asik and I am almost certain that Asik will be asking for a lot more then 10 million. Tyson Chandler will be 33 years old

by the way:

Brook Lopez $16,744,218
Al Jefferson $13,500,000
Joakim Noah $13,900,000
JaVale McGee $12,000,000
Andrew Bogut $12,972,973
Dwight Howard $22,359,364
Roy Hibbert $15,514,031
DeAndre Jordan $11,440,123
Marc Gasol $15,829,688
Larry Sanders $11,000,000
Nikola Pekovic $12,100,000
Andrea Bargnani $11,500,000
Tyson Chandler $14,846,888
Nikola Vucevic $13,500,000
DeMarcus Cousins $15,851,950
Derrick Favors $12,000,000
Marcin Gortat $12,000,000

I'm really not seeing how giving 10 million to a starting C of Lopez's caliber is over-paying.

By renouncing Lopez and Matthews, Blazers have $22M in cap room

By trading Batum to a team with cap room and renouncing Lopez and Matthews, Blazers have $34M in cap room

why stop there??...they could renounce Aldridge, Matthews, and Lopez, trade Batum for nothing, and have 55 million in cap-space. I guess they could draw a line at Lillard as long as they are worshiping on the alter of cap-space

And, renounced players can be unrenounced if Blazers make an offer to a RFA that falls through

and renounced players can take it personal and sign with another team while Portland is waiting on the inevitable matching offer. In fact, it's very likely they would

Blazers will definitely have an abundance of cap room if they want it.

sure, and the cost could be minimal. Then all they have to do is convince two elite free agents to sign with a team that just lost 3 starters and couldn't convince Spenser Hawes to sign with them