Early look at the draft

[tester551]

CJ might end up being a very nice trade chip if the team knows AAA is opting in and is confident of their chances
at signing Wes. I would like to get up into the late lottery or mid first round to get a really solid prospect
out of this draft.

if he opts in I'd rather trade AA than CJ

CJ's trade value will likely never be higher than this coming off season. AAA likely won't have much trade
value for he'll be an UFA if he opts in. CJ like guys like Monta Ellis are undersized SG's.

Honestly neither one will have great trade value. At this point & from what I have seen from CJ in the last month - I would rather have the better, younger player on a rookie contract.

If Lopez/Aldridge/Batum/Matthews/Lillard are starters next season … and Kaman and Blake go for another year … and Afflalo is a 6th man/backup SG … and McCollum is developing …
… then the greatest weakest (and/or area for improvement) is backup SF or SF/PF.

At 23 (or 24), best player available rules the day … however, it's an area of need moving forward. I like Crabbe but he's a backup SG/SF at this point. Wright is short term and a free agent.

How about a SF with a motor and length … who plays D and likes it. Whose offense has a long way to go, but he's a worker.
And so, while this guy is built as a SF at this point, his wingspan and motor should help.

U of A's Rondae Hollis Jefferson.
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/rondae-hollis-jefferson
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Rondae-Hollis-Jefferson-6466/

Portland still has a lot of holes.
From the Starters, we need a much better SF (hopefully Batum can be that guy who replaces the mirage of a player we had this year).
For backups, PG is a huge need IMO. Blake is great as a third stringer, but just doesn't do enough for me. I agree that backup SF is a big need.
I love the idea of drafting RJH, but feel like we can get a similar player on the FA market without too much trouble (Aminu?)

[Goldbum]

Draft. Net seems to think Kris Dunn will be available. If he is he would be a home run.

[oldfishermen]

the greatest weakest (and/or area for improvement) is backup SF or SF/PF.

How about a SF with a motor and length … who plays D and likes it. Whose offense has a long way to go, but he's a worker.
And so, while this guy is built as a SF at this point, his wingspan and motor should help.

U of A's Rondae Hollis Jefferson.
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/rondae-hollis-jefferson
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Rondae-Hollis-Jefferson-6466/

Rondae’s game reminds me of young raw Jerome Kersey (drafted #46).

Rondae does several things very well that the Blazers need, especially on D. What a motor Rondae has, similar to Jerome. And also the body/shoulders and physical tools to back it up, again, similar to Jerome.

My only concern is, would Rondae fit into Stott’s system? His biggest weakness is outside shooting. If he can develop into a better shooter, he could be a very good NBA player. His shooting stats also are similar to Jerome’s NBA stats. Jerome was never a good outside shooter, and hardly ever made a 3. But the game has changed.

Rondae is raw, and needs time to develop. Jerome averaged 12+ MPG his rookie season. With Coach Stotts, I am not sure Rondae would get the minutes to develop the way Jerome did.

Rondae is projected to be drafted in the early 20s around the Blazer’s pick, so he is worth considering.

[zzaj]

George Lucas with the Blazer pick...A.J. Hammons with a 2nd round purchased pick. Potential and size.

The Blazers need a SF who can score and create off the dribble. I think the Blazers are better off looking at players with experience for that role.

[oldfishermen]

Just to throw a couple more names into the mix:

Caris LeVert: Currently projected at 22, he is a guard with great length. 6'7 and can play both back-court positions (although not strong as the primary ball-handler), but doesn't have the strength to play SF. Has a pretty good 3 point shot, but struggles from midrange and finishing. He's an unselfish player, but there are questions whether he is too passive.. settles for jumpshots, doesn't embrace being the go-to player. Kind of sounds like a little bit shorter Batum in that regard, however that might not be a terrible thing late in the 1st when you need a guy to join an established team and not someone who thinks they are the alpha-dog. Here comes the big caveat: He's been out for a good chunk of this season with a foot injury. This could mean that he will be drafted below his talent level, and his versatility might be a great fit in Portland's backcourt.

l.

Caris Levert’s strengths fit perfectly into Stott"s system. Most of his weakness can be eliminated by limiting his role to a spot up shooter, and also as the ball handler in the P&R. He is a good passer and could take a lot of the pressure off of Lillard. Plus he plays good D.

I like Caris LeVert with our first round pick. Given the proper role, I believe he could play BUSG right now.

Link to his video
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Caris-LeVert-66377/

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Just to throw a couple more names into the mix:

Caris LeVert: Currently projected at 22, he is a guard with great length. 6'7 and can play both back-court positions (although not strong as the primary ball-handler), but doesn't have the strength to play SF. Has a pretty good 3 point shot, but struggles from midrange and finishing. He's an unselfish player, but there are questions whether he is too passive.. settles for jumpshots, doesn't embrace being the go-to player. Kind of sounds like a little bit shorter Batum in that regard, however that might not be a terrible thing late in the 1st when you need a guy to join an established team and not someone who thinks they are the alpha-dog. Here comes the big caveat: He's been out for a good chunk of this season with a foot injury. This could mean that he will be drafted below his talent level, and his versatility might be a great fit in Portland's backcourt.

l.

Caris Levert’s strengths fit perfectly into Stott"s system. Most of his weakness can be eliminated by limiting his role to a spot up shooter, and also as the ball handler in the P&R. He is a good passer and could take a lot of the pressure off of Lillard. Plus he plays good D.

I like Caris LeVert with our first round pick. Given the proper role, I believe he could play BUSG right now.

Link to his video
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Caris-LeVert-66377/

Damn. We had been moving up into range of actually getting him and (depending on his health) I agree he would have been a great fit.


Looks like he is returning to college though for another season. Could be smart of him, as he has the talent to be a lottery pick and it didn't look like it would work out for him this year.

[GreenRiddler]

What do think of Wood, seems in our draft range, Wright could develop into a nice 3rd guard given he is Wright's younger Bro we will look at him.

[GreenRiddler]

I like Rondae, I think we need 1 more wing defender, offense be damned.

However RJ Hunter looks like a JJ Redick type, CJ is good, but you can never have too much depth, espcially with AAA in the air and Wes injured.

One thing is for sure, I have soured on Crabbe, he is just too hesitant to shoot. RJ has showed he can and is willing to shoot often, which is what we need from bench players.

[GreenRiddler]

I don't know if we trade the pick on Draft night, or not given our status of FAs (mostly just LMA, all the others are retain-able if we want them).

Do we make the draft choice with the mind that LMA stays and try to fill our needs? BPA doesn't really work at 23. If LMA stays we are pretty much set at every position, so do we go for a refined talent that will produce quickly or a raw upside pick that can pay off in 2 years (2 years away from being 2 years away)?

I like Hunter Rondae and am intrigued by Woods and Wright, who is the only PG I would consider drafting. If we don't want Wright, I have seen enough from Frasier to make him the backup PG over a rookie frosh like Jones.

I would draft Rondae if we retain LMA or not, Crowder is showing us every team needs a dog it out type of big thick wing defender.

I don't worry so much about our offense, we have a proven system and weapons, we could use a guy like Rondae, next year or the one after that. Then again, Gee is getting no mins so maybe go for offense NO...

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Wood, Rondae and Wright would be a solid 3 to be looking at. I am not totally convinced any of them are NBA players, although Wood has a lot of talent, Rondae a lot of heart and Wright had some ridiculous 30ish PER so the potential is there.


Wood looks like he may fill a super coveted role of shot blocker + floor spacing big man. Personally I have him probably going to Washington at 19, so if he falls to us it may be a no-brainer.

Rondae I've been looking at more and more, though I don't know where he will go. Guys like him will occasionally have a GM fall in love and draft them early (somewhat like Gordon last year). Shooting is the easiest thing to develop, but one has to be born with a great frame, defensive instincts and the heart that he plays with. Dallas or Toronto will be looking hard at him right before us and he could easily be the best all-around defender in the draft.

By all accounts Delon Wright should be available to us. I like that he is a two-way player, but he doesn't really have a go-to skill-set and I don't see him being a starter (in some ways reminds me of MCW though, who is boarder-line starting quality). He is not a natural PG or SG, although his skill-set may mesh with McCollum off the bench. I hesitate to take PG's who wont be sure-fire starters though, since the league is so awash with them that you can get a more sure thing in free agency without wasting a draft pick.

Justin Anderson has fallen in the last couple weeks. He is another 2 way player. Defense, great frame but he also shoots over 40% from 3 point range and isn't a black-hole or turnover machine. Maybe a low ceiling, but the most prototypical 3&D player in the draft.

[Norm2953]

I'm of the opinion we operate the same regardless of LA's FA decision.

Going by team need, another wing is needed for AAA is a free agent and with the draft
coming on June 25 unless he informs management he's opting out, we're going to need
another SG, preferably with size to go with Dame and CJ while Wes recovers.

I'd like to see us identify a group of players in the mid first round and see if we can
go get one of them.

[tester551]

Wood, Rondae and Wright would be a solid 3 to be looking at. I am not totally convinced any of them are NBA players, although Wood has a lot of talent, Rondae a lot of heart and Wright had some ridiculous 30ish PER so the potential is there.


Wood looks like he may fill a super coveted role of shot blocker + floor spacing big man. Personally I have him probably going to Washington at 19, so if he falls to us it may be a no-brainer.

Rondae I've been looking at more and more, though I don't know where he will go. Guys like him will occasionally have a GM fall in love and draft them early (somewhat like Gordon last year). Shooting is the easiest thing to develop, but one has to be born with a great frame, defensive instincts and the heart that he plays with. Dallas or Toronto will be looking hard at him right before us and he could easily be the best all-around defender in the draft.

By all accounts Delon Wright should be available to us. I like that he is a two-way player, but he doesn't really have a go-to skill-set and I don't see him being a starter (in some ways reminds me of MCW though, who is boarder-line starting quality). He is not a natural PG or SG, although his skill-set may mesh with McCollum off the bench. I hesitate to take PG's who wont be sure-fire starters though, since the league is so awash with them that you can get a more sure thing in free agency without wasting a draft pick.

Justin Anderson has fallen in the last couple weeks. He is another 2 way player. Defense, great frame but he also shoots over 40% from 3 point range and isn't a black-hole or turnover machine. Maybe a low ceiling, but the most prototypical 3&D player in the draft.

I saw Woods a time or two, but I never saw anything that screamed NBA potential. I would stay far away from him.

Rondae & Wright are my two favorite (realistic) picks in this draft. I think Jefferson is going to break out & be what we (or at least what I) wished Batum would be.

[Norm2953]

Rondae can't shoot and knowing our coach, he wouldn't play him. He'd more likely ask the
team make a trade up to get Devon Booker.

[whatchaknow]

Getting a big guard that has ball handling abilities would be nice. We either need to address backup pg or a wing in the draft

[whatchaknow]

Jerian Grant from Notre Dame would be a nice pickup though he's projected a little higher than where our position is. Big guard with pg capabilities, can shoot the ball and create offense. Also the games i watched he was a very capable defender

[Blazinaway]

Getting a big guard that has ball handling abilities would be nice. We either need to address backup pg or a wing in the draft

I think a guy like Tyreke Evans would be a great fit with Lillard and McCollum, he can play all the backup PG we need him too and he has the size (6'6") to guard other big guards or SG's and he can even play SF. He's also a slasher which we could use, is there a guard in the draft with potential similar skills?

just noticed in the previous post the Jerian Grand was mentioned - sounds similar to Tyreke but a better shooter?

[Wizenheimer]

Getting a big guard that has ball handling abilities would be nice. We either need to address backup pg or a wing in the draft

I agree, halfway

I don't think backup PG will be a high priority of Olshey's. Portland has Blake and Frazier now, and while I'm not that impressed with the pair, my guess is that Olshey will think they are more then adequate...

...and I think a big part of the reason he will is because of how high he is on CJ. So he'll want to configure the team to give CJ plenty of opportunity, which (unfortunately in my view) means no off-guard duty for Lillard. So any Blazer backup PG will get few minutes since Lillard will be a full-time PG, IMO, in Olshey's plans.

the problem with that, in my view, is that a good team needs more then one offensive initiator on the floor most times. Right now, Portland has 3 players capable of that: Lillard/Batum/Blake. Matthews isn't one, Afflalo isn't either; and certainly CJ isn't. CJ has played 128 minutes in this playoff series and has a total of 2 assists; and one of those was completely accidental. Meyers Leonard has played 50 fewer minutes and has 4.

so, since Portland appears 'loaded' at SG with 3 guards incapable of running an offense, that seems to leave SF as the 'escape-valve' for a facilitator. That's why Batum is so important, and you can't just look at Batum's assists: you also have to look at his usage rate because Lillard/Aldridge use a high percentage of Portland's possessions while they are on the floor, and if you're a CJ fan, then you should recognize he's a high usage player as well. Batum fits excellently not only because he can pass and defend, but because of the very thing many criticize him for...he doesn't look for his own offense first

Batum has had a bad year due to injury. But he still finished 2nd among all SF's in assists and assist rate. And among all SG's and SF's, Batum was tied with Iguaodala for 1st in assist/turnover ratio.

in other words, because of the rest of the roster, Portland needs a SF that fits the role Batum plays. And it would seem essential for Portland to have one other player capable of filling that role. I doubt they could find one in the draft, but if there was ever a time to draft for need, this might be the time considering that Batum will be UFA in 14 months

[Wizenheimer]

Getting a big guard that has ball handling abilities would be nice. We either need to address backup pg or a wing in the draft

I think a guy like Tyreke Evans would be a great fit with Lillard and McCollum,

I disagree for one simple reason

Lillard is a high usage player. And it sure looks like if CJ becomes a regular, he'll settle in as a high usage player too. And Aldridge is an even higher usage player then those two

with Evans, the big problem would be he's a high usage player as well. Yes, he gets assists, but to do so and to be effective, he needs to totally dominate the ball. His worst 2 seasons statistically came when he had his lowest usage rates, and even then, his 'career low usage rates' were still higher then any Blazer besides Aldridge & Lillard. Lillard's career usage rate is 25.3%; Tyreke's career rate is 25.2% and the last two seasons, it's been close to 27%

That's not going to fit well with Llllard/Aldridge/CJ in my view. Something would have to give and if it was Evans and his offense that gave, he would be a different and likely much less effective player. That's because he can't shoot from the perimeter so to be effective in attacking a defense he need to dribble-drive; that's where his high usage comes in...he is no catch & shoot threat so the ball has to stick to his hands for a lot longer of the shot clock in order for him to attack a defense and keep it honest.

I don't mean to be insulting but I think wishes for players like tyreke evans to be added to the Blazers seems like Trader Bob Whitsitt thinking...just grab the most talented players you can without regard to salary cap or tax and let the coach worry about how the pieces fit together. And, when the pieces inevitably don't fit together, fire the coach....then resign
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edit:

I just checked the Pelicans' 5 man units this season: the top-2 most used lineups, and 3 of the top-5 most used lineups, had Evans as the PG. In fact, 65% of the 5 most used lineups, and 63% of the 8 most used lineups had Evans as the PG. That doesn't leave a lot of room for Lillard, does it

[Blazinaway]

Getting a big guard that has ball handling abilities would be nice. We either need to address backup pg or a wing in the draft

I think a guy like Tyreke Evans would be a great fit with Lillard and McCollum,

I disagree for one simple reason

Lillard is a high usage player. And it sure looks like if CJ becomes a regular, he'll settle in as a high usage player too. And Aldridge is an even higher usage player then those two

with Evans, the big problem would be he's a high usage player as well. Yes, he gets assists, but to do so and to be effective, he needs to totally dominate the ball. His worst 2 seasons statistically came when he had his lowest usage rates, and even then, his 'career low usage rates' were still higher then any Blazer besides Aldridge & Lillard. Lillard's career usage rate is 25.3%; Tyreke's career rate is 25.2% and the last two seasons, it's been close to 27%

That's not going to fit well with Llllard/Aldridge/CJ in my view. Something would have to give and if it was Evans and his offense that gave, he would be a different and likely much less effective player. That's because he can't shoot from the perimeter so to be effective in attacking a defense he need to dribble-drive; that's where his high usage comes in...he is no catch & shoot threat so the ball has to stick to his hands for a lot longer of the shot clock in order for him to attack a defense and keep it honest.

I don't mean to be insulting but I think wishes for players like tyreke evans to be added to the Blazers seems like Trader Bob Whitsitt thinking...just grab the most talented players you can without regard to salary cap or tax and let the coach worry about how the pieces fit together. And, when the pieces inevitably don't fit together, fire the coach....then resign
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

edit:

I just checked the Pelicans' 5 man units this season: the top-2 most used lineups, and 3 of the top-5 most used lineups, had Evans as the PG. In fact, 65% of the 5 most used lineups, and 63% of the 8 most used lineups had Evans as the PG. That doesn't leave a lot of room for Lillard, does it

Good stuff on the usage rate Wiz. I do believe the reason Tyreke played so much time at PG was that Jrue was injured and only played 40 games last season. I do think we need another guard/wing with PG and slashing ability, it does not have to be Tyreke but at 6'6" he can play 3 positions, that type of versatility is valuable.

[whatchaknow]

Getting a big guard that has ball handling abilities would be nice. We either need to address backup pg or a wing in the draft

I agree, halfway

I don't think backup PG will be a high priority of Olshey's. Portland has Blake and Frazier now, and while I'm not that impressed with the pair, my guess is that Olshey will think they are more then adequate...

...and I think a big part of the reason he will is because of how high he is on CJ. So he'll want to configure the team to give CJ plenty of opportunity, which (unfortunately in my view) means no off-guard duty for Lillard. So any Blazer backup PG will get few minutes since Lillard will be a full-time PG, IMO, in Olshey's plans.

the problem with that, in my view, is that a good team needs more then one offensive initiator on the floor most times. Right now, Portland has 3 players capable of that: Lillard/Batum/Blake. Matthews isn't one, Afflalo isn't either; and certainly CJ isn't. CJ has played 128 minutes in this playoff series and has a total of 2 assists; and one of those was completely accidental. Meyers Leonard has played 50 fewer minutes and has 4.

so, since Portland appears 'loaded' at SG with 3 guards incapable of running an offense, that seems to leave SF as the 'escape-valve' for a facilitator. That's why Batum is so important, and you can't just look at Batum's assists: you also have to look at his usage rate because Lillard/Aldridge use a high percentage of Portland's possessions while they are on the floor, and if you're a CJ fan, then you should recognize he's a high usage player as well. Batum fits excellently not only because he can pass and defend, but because of the very thing many criticize him for...he doesn't look for his own offense first

Batum has had a bad year due to injury. But he still finished 2nd among all SF's in assists and assist rate. And among all SG's and SF's, Batum was tied with Iguaodala for 1st in assist/turnover ratio.

in other words, because of the rest of the roster, Portland needs a SF that fits the role Batum plays. And it would seem essential for Portland to have one other player capable of filling that role. I doubt they could find one in the draft, but if there was ever a time to draft for need, this might be the time considering that Batum will be UFA in 14 months

I don't think id consider Blake an offensive initiator anymore. I mean if you just mean being able to bring the ball up the court and then do essentially nothing else, than i guess he's an initiator. But against high level competition Blake brings basically squat. I think adding a capable back up pg would really be noticeable on the blazers.

I actually agree and think SF is the position i would most like to get a guy that can initiate the offense because those guys are extremely rare. I don't think one of those exists in this draft at our position. Ideally i would like to find an upgrade over Batum but i don't know that the draft offers that