Early look at the draft

Post #1 » by **DeBlazerRiddem** » Mon Mar 16, 2015 6:15 pm

I always get excited by the draft. Its where fortunes are made and lost for NBA teams. It is especially important for teams in the playoffs to find those cheap young contributors to add value without free agency bids. Since we didn't have a pick last year, and likely wont have a pick next year, it is important for us to come away with something to show for it. However, one should keep in mind that most players late in the draft are busts, despite how they may look on paper.

Looking at some of the players projected to go around our pick, there are several players that interest me, as well as some that are kind of interesting but I remain skeptical about. FYI, Portland has the 27th pick right now. Projected picks are per DraftExpress (I basically take their scouting materials and decide who I like and dislike)

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These are the guys I think could end up being late round steals:

Trey Lyles - Currently projected at #26, this 6'10 PF from Kentucky is near the top of my list. He was highly regarded coming out of high school, but hasn't been setting the world on fire as a freshman. IMO this is not too surprising because he is playing on an absolutely stacked Kentucky front-court - plus I think he has a game that will fit better in the NBA than in college. He isn't a killer athlete, but he has a very high skill level and should be able to contribute from day 1 as a stretch-4. However, I would love to have him learning under Aldridge, as I think he could develop and play a similar role in the offense (though he doesn't have the size of Aldridge and may never be the same quality of post player). In any case, he fits exactly what I look for in a late round steal and may be the only guy in our range with untapped star potential. Worth moving up to snag if the cost is right.

Timothe Luwawu - Currently projected at #33, this 6'7 French SG has all the tools necessary to be a successful NBA player. I don't see him remaining in the 2ed round. He is a very good athlete with an explosive first step and great size for the position, plus he can handle the ball a little (not terribly advanced, but its there) to create some offense and is a 3 point shooting threat (although still a developing one). However, his most immediate impact will be as a defender. Kind of reminds me of Gerald Green in term of body and skill-set... I don't know about his mental maturity, but I see nothing that concerns me. He plays hard and aggressive but is also unselfish in that typical Euro fashion. Disclaimer - for some reason I have a soft spot for French players, so maybe I overrate this guy, but he has the tools necessary to thrive in the NBA.

Justin Anderson - Currently projected at #25, he is a 6'6 SF from Virginia. Despite his height, he has a very good wingspan and a very strong frame that wont let him get overpowered. He has an absolutely beautiful 3 point shot, and is currently somewhere ~46% from 3 point range. He's a good defender, maybe not lock-down, but definitely a plus. Basically he is your prototypical 3&D player. Good passing instincts for the position too. No shot at being a star, but its hard to see him not sticking in the league with his NBA ready body and NBA caliber shooting. Can really finish an ally-oop too...

Tyus Jones - Currently projected #27 (that's us!), this 6'1 PG from Duke is your prototypical floor general, and seems pretty polished despite being somewhat young for his class. Duke has a way of keeping players, so it may be that he doesn't declare, but a heady young guy like him should have no problem making it as a journeyman in the NBA, but unlikely to be a star player. He isn't outstanding in terms of size or athleticism, but controls the pace of the game very well and has been instrumental in feeding Okafor in the post this year. Solid 3 point shooter, its hard to poke too many holes in his game at the point and players with his understanding of the game can usually outplay their expectations.

George Lucas - Currently projected #28, he is a 6'5 PG from Brazil. I am a little hesitant to list him with these other guys because he is raw raw raw.. but he has the right mix of physical talent and skill to make it in the NBA. First and foremost, he has an extremely long wingspan (over 7 foot!!!) and huge hands that almost look unreal and give him elite defensive potential. He's got a very good handle on the ball and has the mindset of a playmaker, very good court vision. His shot shows promise (not flawed) but it looks undeveloped, which isn't surprising for a PG that can physically dominate the lower levels. There isn't a ton of scouting material on him, but from what I have seen, the game seems to come naturally to him. He would definitely be a bit of a project player (which I hesitate to take late in the 1st when we need immediate contributions or we will find someone else), but he fits the type of player I want backing up Lillard long-term.

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So obviously if I am right about the guys above, it is possible they move up on draft day, out of our range. There are some other players in the late 1st/early 2ed that I am keeping an eye on, but hesitate to endorse for one reason or another.

Delon Wright - Currently projected #30, the youngest brother of Dorell Wright, he is a 6'5 PG from Utah. 4 year player, the main knock on him has been his shooting, and to answer those critics this year he is currently shooting 37% from 3. A solid ball-handler, he isn't necessarily a creative playmaker with most of it coming off of simple plays such as drive-and-dish. His mid-range game is non-existent, so for most of his college career he has made his living in the paint, scoring a high percentage on close in shots. I have some worry how that will translate to the NBA as he is not an elite athlete, but his improved 3 point shooting alleviates that worry some. He is also an all-around productive player, currently 15/5/5 with 2 steals and a block per game as well. Very polarizing player, if he could continue to prove his shooting is not a fluke he would definitely be worth a look, but something keeps me from really giving him my endorsement.

Robert Upshaw - Currently projected #32, this 7 foot center from Washington is sure to get some hype for his very good per-minute rebounding and his insane per-minute blocking rate (25 min, 8.6 rebounds, 4.4 blocks, only 2.1 fouls). However, in pulling up some footage of him, I became concerned about his frame. He looks to have a weak base, and I think NBA centers would push him around pretty easily. He does have pretty incredible timing, allowing him to block multiple shots per possession, but he also seems to jump at everything which doesn't exactly help the defense and could lead to inflated blocking numbers (the low fouls makes this less of a concern). The other big knock on him is serious maturity issues and a lackadaisical approach to the game. I think he got kicked off two teams, and I think it was drug violations that lost him his spot for the Huskeys. His weak base also gives me injury concerns, as he looks to carry a good bit of weight in his chest, though I haven't really heard of him having problems. I think its a bad bet to take him in the 1st round, but some team could get a steal in the 2ed and he is the only real center in this region of the draft.

RJ Hunter - Currently projected at #24, this 6'5 SG could be one of the only volume scorers available in the late 1st round. He isn't an incredible athlete, though he does tend to produce with current averages of 20 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.2 steals and a block. He has a very high usage, and prolific college scorers are hit or miss on the transition to the NBA especially because he may be a bit of a chucker with his poor shooting percentages. I don't really see a place for him on the Blazers, and I think he may be a flawed player, but you don't get 20 point college scorers late in the 1st if they don't have flaws.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson - Currently projected at #23, he is a 6'7 SF who could end up one of the best wing defenders in this draft. Plays with a very good energy level and a good athlete, however his offense is questionable and his shooting is a glaring weakness. Players like that have made in the NBA before (ala Aminu), but with the 3 point shot getting more valuable by the year (and especially for the Blazers), I am too hesitant to give him an endorsement.

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Hope this gets some discussion started if anyone else also geeks out about the draft. Let me know what you think of my player analysis, and if there is anyone else you feel we should keep an eye on. I'll try and add updates if/when the projections change.

PDX MM · Post #2 » by **PDX MM** » Mon Mar 16, 2015 7:44 pm

Do we have any 2nd round picks in this draft? I do enjoy the draft but I don't really get into college basketball so I don't know who is who. Seeing how our pick will be late first that means a project pick so another big wouldn't be surprising. Myself I would like to see us get a solid 3 & D wing, can't seem to ever have to many of those. Maybe a backup pg but probably won't use the draft to fill that. Might need to target a sg since Wes and AA's future is unclear atm.

Waynearchetype · Post #3 » by **Waynearchetype** » Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:43 pm

I'd like to shoot for a raw/unproven player with upside with a high pick, so I'm on the George Lucas bandwagon.

It is possible to buy a second round pick too, there are a lot of teams that have a large amount of them...

GreenRiddler · Post #4 » by **GreenRiddler** » Mon Mar 16, 2015 10:00 pm

nice detail, I haven't followed this year's group of guys because I wasn't sure if we'd have a pick like last year. I think there is a chance we trade the pick, but we can always use more young talent having traded away 2 prospects that didn't fit.

Village Idiot · Post #5 » by **Village Idiot** » Mon Mar 16, 2015 10:21 pm

Would like to see Kristaps Porzingas fall far enough for us to be able to move up for him. Really intriguing skill set to back up SF/PF. He's kind of a mix of Aldridge, Batum and Mirotic

Norm2953 · Post #6 » by **Norm2953** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:10 am

Portland will likely target a couple of players in this draft and if the cost is reasonable,
could trade up to get that player. Don't focus on one position but try to find a player
who eventually could challenge for a spot in our playing rotation.

Brandon-Clyde · Post #7 » by **Brandon-Clyde** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 4:57 am

George Lucas? The guy that destroyed Star Wars? NEVVVVVEEEERRR :starwars

Wizenheimer · Post #8 » by **Wizenheimer** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 4:42 pm

Waynearchetype wrote:I'd like to shoot for a raw/unproven player with upside with a high pick, so I'm on the George Lucas bandwagon.

It is possible to buy a second round pick too, there are a lot of teams that have a large amount of them...

it's always possible to buy a pick. 2nd round picks are almost always available and 1st rounders are occasionally available. Often, cash and a 2nd can buy a 1st. Unfortunately, the Blazers have no 2nds for leverage

on the other hand, I don't think Portland has used any of their allotted cash for this season yet and the draft is just about the last opportunity to 'spend' that cash. The cash clock will reset in July

I suppose the advantage for Portland in using a 2nd round pick on a player is that it's a method to add a cheap end-of-bench guy, keeping Portland a little further away from the luxury tax.

Right now, Portland has the 27th pick in the draft. That probably has less value then the 31-34 picks because it's a 1st round pick with longer guaranteed terms. Portland's record with late picks over the last 15 years isn't good. They've had a bunch and Batum is the only one of them that has panned out, although Freeland might be arguable as well. I'm not expecting much from this draft. Personally, I'd rather see Portland dangle their pick+cash+CJ/Meyers and see what they could land in terms of a veteran player. Olshey is unlikely to do that though

James72 · Post #9 » by **James72** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 8:21 pm

GIVE ME SABAS JR.!

monopoman · Post #10 » by **monopoman** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:14 pm

James72 wrote:GIVE ME SABAS JR.!

I agree, I would enjoy having Sabonis's kid on the roster, it would be a great story for the team. I'm not sure if he is going to the NBA draft this year, as he will turn 19 just before the draft comes about.

Wizenheimer · Post #11 » by **Wizenheimer** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:31 pm

I haven't seen Gonzaga so I haven't seen Sabas Jr....anybody have a good comparison for him?

Shem · Post #12 » by **Shem** » Wed Mar 18, 2015 5:33 am

Wizenheimer wrote:I haven't seen Gonzaga so I haven't seen Sabas Jr....anybody have a good comparison for him?

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=er69CSpUd34[/youtube]

I'm sure an updated one will come out once the draft gets closer. In the meantime, this should help you get an idea of what he's like.

HoopsFanAZ · Post #13 » by **HoopsFanAZ** » Wed Mar 18, 2015 6:56 am

1. If he's in the draft, take the flier on Domantas Sabonis. He is going to be a skilled big with court awareness who rebounds.
2. Another player, listed at 6'3 and 22 yrs old … not exactly selling points … but get Gary Payton II. Rebounds, steals, shot blocking -- defense -- in a guard. The offensive skills will come. He's a project, but a PG's prime tends towards being later than a PF or SF … more like a center's. He'll learn from Blake and Lillard.
8-)

Goldbum · Post #14 » by **Goldbum** » Wed Mar 18, 2015 4:32 pm

I am thinking PG all the way. We have young developing talent at all the other positions. The guy I like is Wright. I think having a big tough defensive minded PG to play next to CJ could negate some of his flaws. Plus N.O. has a thing for PG's with Utah ties. Lillard, Price, Mo...

Post #15 » by **DeBlazerRiddem** » Wed Mar 18, 2015 5:06 pm

Goldbum wrote:I am thinking PG all the way. We have young developing talent at all the other positions. The guy I like is Wright. I think having a big tough defensive minded PG to play next to CJ could negate some of his flaws. Plus N.O. has a thing for PG's with Utah ties. Lillard, Price, Mo...

Yeah. Basically the biggest knock on Wright (besides that he's not a CP3 level distributor) was his outside shooting. If he can answer that, he has a lot of NBA tools. If his shooting shows up at the combine, he could easily be a draft day riser and could even end up on the cusp of the lottery...

You are totally right, he does fit Olshey's drafting pattern. 4 year lead guard with good advanced stats. I actually didn't realize it, but he has a 30+ PER this season.

There is quite a depth of big point guards in this draft, so targeting that position and role may be a smart strategy.

Post #16 » by **DeBlazerRiddem** » Wed Mar 18, 2015 5:11 pm

Shem wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:I haven't seen Gonzaga so I haven't seen Sabas Jr....anybody have a good comparison for him?

I'm sure an updated one will come out once the draft gets closer. In the meantime, this should help you get an idea of what he's like.

I am a little skeptical. Is he even supposed to enter the draft this season?

Looks like a center on offense and a PF on defense. Not that that is a knock on him (certainly there are other successful players you could describe that way), but players like that do carry a little more risk IMO. I could just see him struggling to score from the post against NBA post defenders (who are usually bigger) and being a spacing problem if paired with another center who isn't a good floor spacer himself.

Post #17 » by **The Sebastian Express** » Wed Mar 18, 2015 6:43 pm

GPII isn't entering the draft, at least not as of a week ago. He wants to return to school to continue development on the offensive side of the ball. He'll be training this summer with Lillard and John Wall, though, it was mentioned.

I'm interested in baby brother!Wright and George Lucas, especially the latter due to his measurements alone.

Shem · Post #18 » by **Shem** » Wed Mar 18, 2015 8:53 pm

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:
Shem wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:I haven't seen Gonzaga so I haven't seen Sabas Jr....anybody have a good comparison for him?

I'm sure an updated one will come out once the draft gets closer. In the meantime, this should help you get an idea of what he's like.

I am a little skeptical. Is he even supposed to enter the draft this season?

Looks like a center on offense and a PF on defense. Not that that is a knock on him (certainly there are other successful players you could describe that way), but players like that do carry a little more risk IMO. I could just see him struggling to score from the post against NBA post defenders (who are usually bigger) and being a spacing problem if paired with another center who isn't a good floor spacer himself.

I wouldn't see it as a risk if we got him at the 26th (assuming that is where we pick at). Because basically the pick is going to be like Adam Silver saying:

"With the 26th of the 2015 NBA Draft, the Portland Trail Blazers select: A bench warmer on a cheap rookie salary to take roster spot."

Whomever the Blazers select, they're going to sit on the bench a lot next season no matter who the selection is. You're at a point in the draft that you'd be lucky to find someone who would be good enough to play in the rotation.

Downtown · Post #19 » by **Downtown** » Thu Mar 19, 2015 5:36 am

Shem wrote:I wouldn't see it as a risk if we got him at the 26th (assuming that is where we pick at). Because basically the pick is going to be like Adam Silver saying:

"With the 26th of the 2015 NBA Draft, the Portland Trail Blazers select: A bench warmer on a cheap rookie salary to take roster spot."

Whomever the Blazers select, they're going to sit on the bench a lot next season no matter who the selection is. You're at a point in the draft that you'd be lucky to find someone who would be good enough to play in the rotation.

I agree with this to a certain extent. When drafting beyond the mid twenties I think you swing for the fence and take a risk. Never mind drafting for need or position down there. That's what you do in the lottery and teens. Just my opinion.

But I wouldn't outright say that whoever they select that low has no chance of getting into the rotation off the bench. I know Philly isn't a top tier team and that young players have more of a chance to get playing time and shot opportunities, but guys like Cannan, Covington, and a couple other of their low picks have found a way to get noticed.

When I see the likes of Serge Ibaka and Rudy Gobert doing what they're doing I have hope that the hidden gem is there every draft at the bottom of the first. You just have to roll the dice and not be afraid to strike out. If the guy never makes it so be it. You don't plan your roster around a pick down there anyways.

Wizenheimer · Post #20 » by **Wizenheimer** » Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:52 pm

Shem wrote:"With the 26th of the 2015 NBA Draft, the Portland Trail Blazers select: A bench warmer on a cheap rookie salary to take roster spot."

that works but I think it's incomplete....somewhere in there you have to add the words "without regard for possible redundancy"

maybe that's getting back to 'BPA' but with a different slant

what I mean by that is I've seen Portland screw up before by assuming that a position was already covered by guys on the existing roster.

* Portland had Clyde Drexler so why draft Michael Jordan?
* Portland had Sebastian Telfaire so obviously, there was no reason to draft Chris Paul or Deron Williams
* Portland had Przybilla and had just drafted Greg Oden, so why take Marc Gasol when Josh Mcroberts was availabe?
* Portland has Aldridge so let's stash Victor Claver instead of adding Taj Gibson
* Portland has Lopez and Leonard so why make a move to get Rudy Gobert?

(I still can't find any logic, good or bad, for drafting Nolan Smith)