Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Jsun947]

Now that the deadline is over and we know what the roster looks like we have a more clear picture of what we'll have heading into this offseason.


UPDATED 7/1 FOR CURRENT PROJECTIONS WITH TURNER AT 70/4 (ASSUMING 4.5% RAISES)

Name 2016-17
Damian Lillard $24,381,225
Evan Turner $16,350,000
Al-Farouq Aminu $7,680,965
Ed Davis $6,666,667
C.J. McCollum $3,219,579
Noah Vonleh $2,751,360
Mason Plumlee $2,328,530
Anderson Varejao (Stretch) $1,984,005
Pat Connaughton $874,636
Luis Montero $874,636
Cliff Alexander $874,636
Meyers Leonard $7,689,700
Maurice Harkless $7,235,148
Allen Crabbe $2,725,003
2016/2017 Estimated Cap $94,000,000
Total With Cap Holds $85,636,090
Cap Space With Cap Holds $8,363,910
Total Without Cap Holds $67,986,239
Cap Space Without Cap Holds $26,013,761

Assuming there is no changes our depth chart and without slotting in our restricted free agents this is what our depth charge looks like.

Lillard/?/?
CJ/Connaughton/?
Aminu/Montero/?
Vonleh/?/Alexander
Plumlee/Davis/?

The biggest glaring need would be power forward. The free agency pool at that position looks like a pile of poop too. Whats your ideas on what we should do with Leonard, Harkless, Crabbe's cap hold, and who we should (realistically) chase in free agency?

[Fitz303]

I think Crabbe is definitely back. Other than that, I think everything is up in the air. A lot will depend on this stretch run

[Masterfully]

With all that cap space maybe we can absorb a bad contract and a late first round pick in 2019!

[Norm2953]

Likely Portland is not going to be a destination for next years FA class with the league
awash in cap space, I'd think NO might set the team up to be under the cap floor
again assuming Henderson and our UFA leave.

[Jsun947]

If we are going to roll with Lillard/CJ we need a rim protecting C. I don't think that's up for debate. We also need a power forward and if we have a rim protecting C and that guy needs to be able to spread the floor so the lane doesn't get clogged. I'm also a firm believer that we need to use as much cap space as possible this offseason before McCollums extension will kick in the following year. At the very least we'll be accruing assets that can be used in the future.

I can't see this team being more competitive until we solve our PF problem. Ryan Anderson would be a good solution, particularly if we were able to obtain a better C in the mold of Dwight. I just don't like Dwight with his health issues. We would also need to spend in the neighborhood of $48,000,000 starting out to get them both.

Frankly due to age, health, reliability, and cost I would look at Leuer and Whiteside. If Olshey follows the same strategy and amounts he used with Aminu and Davis that would equate to a 4 year 40 million deal starting at $9,350,000 for Leuer. Whiteside would require the max, about $23,000,000 starting out.

If we don't keep the right to match Leonard or Harkless that leaves us about 10.5 million in cap space.

Depending on what Harkless is offered we could retain him. Depending what Crabbe gets offered we can keep him. Ideally it would be nice to add a defensive specialist that can defend and switch 1-3 without getting murdered, sorta like an Avery Bradley type. I just don't see one of those guys available though. To a smaller degree we need a back up point guard but given CJ and Lillard will play almost all of those minutes I'm not too worried about it.

It also leaves us with a big man problem. Whiteside, Plumlee, and Davis should not be played together, almost ever. Plumlee is so great in the pick and roll and he's cheap, and we have team control going forward. I think it would probably make sense to trade Ed Davis at that point if needed.

Depth and versitity is a great option to overcome lack of star talent, especially when you can stay flexible.

If this is our rotation I think we can challenge for the 4th spot in the West.

Lillard/CJ
CJ/Crabbe/Connaughton
Aminu/Harkless/Montero
Leuer/Davis/Vonleh
Whiteside/Plumlee/Davis

[Wizenheimer]

first off, I wouldn't assume that Portland will stretch Varajao's cap number. They will likely need the credit next season to get near the salary floor....unless of course Olshey unwisely gives big contract extensions to all three of Crabbe, Harkless, and Leonard. I'd also think that the front office might want to get that cap number off the books before a possible new CBA in 2017. Even if his cap number is stretched, it might be a 3 year stretch rather then a 5 year because only 1 year is guaranteed. But that doesn't make a significant difference.

second, Jon Leuer? I sure haven't seen enough from him to warrant any interest. If you go by the pre-draft numbers, Leuer is smaller then Plumlee; he was 1.25' shorter and has a 2.5" less standing reach. He's not a rim protector, that's for sure. Plumlee has blocked 56 shots in 1376 minutes this season alone...Leuer has blocked 57 shots in his 3077 minute career. If Portland is going after another big man this off-season (hopefully to replace Meyers), I think they can find better candidates then Leuer

Whiteside? even if the Blazers offered him a max deal, the chances of them signing him are very small; and I tend to agree with those saying that signing Whiteside to a max deal would be really high risk. On paper, he looks like a perfect C to plug into the Blazer lineup. But Miami doesn't seem to be very determined to keep him and Pat Riley sure doesn't seem like a fool

Crabbe will be interesting. With the league drowning in cap-space this summer, it's easy to imagine him getting some crazy offer. I would hope that Olshey has a cap on what he's willing to pay Crabbe and it isn't over 10-11 million/year. But with the reports that Olshey was willing to give Meyers a substantial deal last summer, I'm worried he's determined to re-sign 'his guys'.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

as far as free agents are concerned, which way are the Blazers going to go? Will they try to sign win-now players or guys who can 'grow' with the team? Will it only be bargain bin shopping again? Would Portland sign an older player on a shorter contract?

[AllMyNeilOlshey]

So we don't want to pay Meyers a large amount of money but we should pay Jon Leuer 10 million a year? I understand you're trying to find realistic targets but Leuer is a older Meyers in my opinion and I believe stats back me up there.

[Jsun947]

According to Woj today Portland is stretching Varejao and it will be 3.3 mil per year over three years as our cap hit. I'll adjust the numbers.

Leuer isn't a center, he's a power forward. Meyers isn't a power forward, he's a Center. They are opposites in that regard.

Leuer is sorta like Plumlee... If Plumlee was a little shorter, quicker, and had three point range. You can also say he's almost a 6'10 Plumlee with Meyers range and shooting.

He has a very good handle, makes quick, smart decisions, a willing passer, and a good three point shooter. I can see him working perfectly in Stott's system.

He's a guy you play with Plumlee, not instead of him.


This is a decent highlight video of him in a game. You can see how his shot keeps the defense honest and then what he's able to do when they close out on him

http://youtu.be/1tukMH1

I'm with you on Whiteside though. If you can't get him then you can't get him. He's a huge risk but I think it's a risk worth taking.

If we aren't going to bottom out to get a good draft pick, and you aren't going to get a big time free agent then the only way you're going to get a potential star caliber player is to get horrendously lucky or take a huge risk on a guy like Whiteside.

If we can't get Whiteside I'd even be for signing Leuer and resigning Leonard if it's a tradable contract. There are times in games where the two of them playing PF & C spacing the floor for Lillard & McCollum could be really valuable.

[Wizenheimer]

According to Woj today Portland is stretching Varejao and it will be 3.3 mil per year over three years as our cap hit. I'll adjust the numbers.

ok then; maybe my reading of the CBA was correct in terms of it only being a 3 year stretch because only 1 year of Varajao's contract is guaranteed after this season. I'm skeptical of the hit being 3.3 million since his guaranteed salary is only 9.36 million, but that's probably quibbling about a pretty small number; the same is true between a 5 year and 3 year stretch

however, this stretch provision appears to be an automatic adjustment to salary payment once a player is waived. That's a new component in the current CBA. Maybe it's there so waived players can't spend it all quickly.

but as far as I can tell, Portland has the option to match the cap-hit to the stretch or take it all nest season. If that's true, I don't know when the deadline is for them to make that choice. But there might definitely be a benefit to taking it all next season

Leuer isn't a center, he's a power forward. Meyers isn't a power forward, he's a Center. They are opposites in that regard.

Leuer is sorta like Plumlee... If Plumlee was a little shorter, quicker, and had three point range. You can also say he's almost a 6'10 Plumlee with Meyers range and shooting.

He has a very good handle, makes quick, smart decisions, a willing passer, and a good three point shooter. I can see him working perfectly in Stott's system.

He's a guy you play with Plumlee, not instead of him.


This is a decent highlight video of him in a game. You can see how his shot keeps the defense honest and then what he's able to do when they close out on him

http://youtu.be/1tukMH1

I'm with you on Whiteside though. If you can't get him then you can't get him. He's a huge risk but I think it's a risk worth taking.

If we aren't going to bottom out to get a good draft pick, and you aren't going to get a big time free agent then the only way you're going to get a potential star caliber player is to get horrendously lucky or take a huge risk on a guy like Whiteside.

If we can't get Whiteside I'd even be for signing Leuer and resigning Leonard if it's a tradable contract. There are times in games where the two of them playing PF & C spacing the floor for Lillard & McCollum could be really valuable

well, if the Blazers are going for a win-now roster next season, there should be better PF options then Leuer. Start with Ryan Anderson. He can certainly stretch the floor. He'd definitely be more expensive though. Blazers could think about Al Horford but he'll be getting a lot of interest

[BigLurch92]

Try Terrence Jones at PF?. Maybe coming home to Portland could inspire him to put up serviceable numbers while Vonleh hopefully develops.

[Jsun947]

Anderson would be a good get but a lot of the media guys like Duncan, Lowe, Woj predicting he's going to get 18 or 20+ a year.

I've always thought of Horford as more of a C in the modern NBA. He's one of those guys where if he's willing to consider our team then you make the offer and figure it out afterwards.

Who's the best 10 power forwards in free agency this year? The list is depressing lol.

[Jsun947]

Try Terrence Jones at PF?. Maybe coming home to Portland could inspire him to put up serviceable numbers while Vonleh hopefully develops.

He's been soooo bad though... His defensive numbers are some of the worst in the NBA and he suddenly forgot how to shoot or rebound. He's not going to get a lot of offers and might have to take a one year deal to try and rehab his value.

[red_power]

TJones just mediocore at all. He can certainly finish around the rim, but can't properly do anything else on the floor. His health is a big question too.
Not good option for me.

[Masterfully]

Every free agent next summer falls into one of two categories for me:
1) 100% Unrealistic
2) Yawn

[zzaj]

I think the Blazers should target late first/early 2nd 4 year College players, who could potentially come in and produce right away while still having a bit of ceiling or even perhaps some diamond in the rough potential.

These type of players will possibly contribute just as much as any of these FAs at a fraction of the cost. I am thinking Jeff Whithey types...

REALLY disappointing that Olshey didn't acquire any picks for this year, as I think this is exactly the time for young players to be added if you're looking at the projection of Lillard's "window".

In some ways next year could be really exciting. If Crabbe and Vonleh are with the team, they may be forced into MUCH larger roles by default..sorta make or break time.

Lillard/Roberts (?)
CJ/Crabbe
Crabbe/Aminu
Vonleh/Davis
Plumlee/Davis

[DaVoiceMaster]

DAVID LEE!!!

Oops, forgot the green font!

[Joshumitsu]

I'd like to to sign Barnes. Weakens the Warriors and adds Barnes to a similar team as the one he won a ring in. Plus, he can guard PF's.

[GreenRiddler]

The thing about Barnes is, he is really Crabbe in disguise and that is doubly expensive. I'd rather keep Crabbe.

[Jsun947]

Plus there is the part where Barnes is restricted and they just match it

[JasonStern]

According to Woj today Portland is stretching Varejao and it will be 3.3 mil per year over three years as our cap hit. I'll adjust the numbers.

looks like we might have just priced ourselves out of the Steve Blake sweepstakes...