Game 49: Portland vs Golden State 6:00pm KGW

[DaVoiceMaster]

Like someone else said, it's too bad Turner was not inbounding the ball instead of receiving it. Lillard, McCollum and Crabbe ... who's your 4th 3 point shooter... Napier???

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[zzaj]

I have no problem with Plumlee inbounding. He's a good passer, who knows how to run a play, and tall enough to see over defenses. The Blazers don't have good 3 point shooters except for Lillard, CJ and Crabbe, so it's not like they have a huge variety of players to put out on the floor in '3 to win' situations. Turner had made a couple 3s in the game and has a history of 'clutch'...I can't really fault Stotts for including him in the last play. Plus, by the time Durant fell down he was completely wide open...I'd bet Turner can shoot wide open shots like that at a much higher clip than his % shows.

As far as the play, I don't think it was drawn up for Turner. I would bet he was the 3rd or 4th option on the play though. Probably Lillard 1st, CJ 2nd, Turner 3rd...

The takeaway from this game for me was seeing how much better Turner is starting to play with both Lillard and CJ. You can tell that teams are having a little more trouble defending the Blazer sets when Turner brings the ball up and Lillard and CJ are effectively 2 SGs. I would doubt this Blazer offensive wrinkle is in opposing teams' scouting reports, yet.

[deanwoof]

Like someone else said, it's too bad Turner was not inbounding the ball instead of receiving it. Lillard, McCollum and Crabbe ... who's your 4th 3 point shooter... Napier???

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obviously meyers /s

[Wizenheimer]

The takeaway from this game for me was seeing how much better Turner is starting to play with both Lillard and CJ. You can tell that teams are having a little more trouble defending the Blazer sets when Turner brings the ball up and Lillard and CJ are effectively 2 SGs. I would doubt this Blazer offensive wrinkle is in opposing teams' scouting reports, yet.

I know you've been pushing for Turner starting for a while; I have to say, I didn't agree with it before, and now that I've seen it, I disagree with it even more.

I don't think it's a coincidence that Lillard's shooting percentages have tanked at about the same time that Turner has been starting. I think the mesh between Dame and Turner is not a good one for Dame. Bad synergy there. And any trade-off that might make Turner 'better' but Dame worse is not a good one IMO. Certainly, Lillard wasn't shooting well when he first came back from his injury, but I'm just seeing him somewhat unsure of his role when all three ball-handlers are in the game.

the whole point of getting a player like Turner was so that the Blazers would have two capable ball-handlers on the floor at all times. But with Turner starting, There's no way to maintain that 2-on-the-floor rotation. Turner and CJ get their rests at about the same time, But Dame is the one left holding the weakened ball-handling bag. Further, since Turner has been starting we're seeing a lot more of the ball-handling version of Aminu and that's a version we don't need or want, but with a ball-handling void, Aminu will step in....and stumble when he does

and then there's the Harkless factor. I think Mo is a better player then Turner. He also has a lot more upside. I'd hate to see his development held back because of some futile 'win-the-most-games-they-can' approach. Blazers aren't going to catch the 7th seed IMO, no matter who it is. The 'best' they can do is 8th seed with a date against the Warriors. That will very likely be a sweep, and the chances are that most of the games will be blow-outs.

[deanwoof]

I agree with you there Wiz. While Turner has played better, albeit at what cost? The only good thing about this is his +/- isn't in the pooper, but the rest of the bench continues to suffer. Mo and Aminu look lost on offense and out of rhythm too now.

Too many guards, not enough balls. Literally and figuratively.

[Fitz303]

I miss Gerald Henderson

[DaVoiceMaster]

Like someone else said, it's too bad Turner was not inbounding the ball instead of receiving it. Lillard, McCollum and Crabbe ... who's your 4th 3 point shooter... Napier???

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obviously meyers /s

Yeah, except there was not enough time on the clock for Meyers to catch the ball, daydream a bit, then get his shot off before time expired. That guy literally has the slowest shot in the entire NBA, college and probably even anyone in high school.

[deanwoof]

To be fair, he's always thinking about the beginning of Momento.

[Shem]

Here are some points that I'm in almost total agreement with Dwight Jaynes (I take more issue on the offensive end than Dwight does for example):

I'm the last guy, in most cases, to say anything about officiating but I'm going to do it this time. The free-throw line decided this game, with Golden State getting to the line 39 times to Portland's 12. Now that was skewed a bit because of the Blazers putting the Warriors at the line frequently in the final minutes in an effort to save time and get back into the game. But still, it's so difficult to get calls against the best team in the league, a team full of all-stars. But consider this: The Trail Blazers outscored Golden State 60-32 in the paint and took 48 shots in that area. And those points are in spite of the Warriors getting six blocked shots -- they contest every single shot, too. But really, you're telling me a team can get inside that often, get that many shots blocked (and a lot of deflections inside, too) and still get only 12 free throws? I'm not buying it. I believe Portland was aggressive and thus fouled frequently inside and those fouls weren't called. But that's the way it goes some nights in the NBA.

It isn't very often that I take issue with anything Coach Terry Stotts does -- he's one of the best in the business and I have a lot of respect for him. But there are a couple of things that have been bothering me and I think they are getting to be difference makers. First, I'm not sure why Noah Vonleh is in the starting lineup. Yes, I know there's this whole thing about bringing Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu off the bench. OK, fine. But why did Vonleh get 17 and a half minutes on the court last night? It made no sense to me. This was a game against the best team in basketball and Portland's margin for error was very thin. Every second Vonleh was on the floor subtracted minutes from Harkless or Aminu. I just don't think Portland could afford that against the Warriors. Vonleh just doesn't have the impact that others do -- at either end of the floor. Just five fewer minutes of Vonleh and five more of Harkless might have made the difference in that game.

And one other thing: As much difference as Aminu might make at the defensive end of the floor, he is a trainwreck as a ball handler and a very questionable three-point shooter. And by this point, I really don't blame Aminu. I believe this has become a coaching issue. Game after game we watch this man dribble the ball off his knee, bounce it off his head out of bounds, misfire on a pass or airball a three-point shot. Isn't there a limit to this stuff? At what point is Aminu told, rather than try to bring the ball up court on a frightening solo dash, just get the ball to a guard. Let someone else do it. And what about taking some of his three-point shots away? He's shooting 26.2 percent from three this season, which is awful, and his airball percentage must lead the league. Yes, I know he shot 36.1 last season, but his previous seasons were 27.4, 27.1, 21.1, 27.7 and 31.5. I think that's enough time to establish that he's really not a reliable three-point shooter, isn't it? If that isn't enough for you, just watch his shooting mechanics and that will convince you. There comes a time when all coaches have to rein a player in a bit. That time is now for Aminu.

[Shem]

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[monopoman]

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Yeah, it just blows my mind how underrated Lillard has become by those on RealGM in a short time. I think he has a shot as going down as the greatest Blazer of all time even if he doesn't win a championship in his NBA career. He will likely get at least the nod as greatest Blazer statistically though if he keeps this type of career up for another 10 years or so with Portland.

I assume part of this backlash against him was due to the tremendous hype around him after he hit that shot against Houston a few years back.

[DusterBuster]

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Yeah, it just blows my mind how underrated Lillard has become by those on RealGM in a short time. I think he has a shot as going down as the greatest Blazer of all time even if he doesn't win a championship in his NBA career. He will likely get at least the nod as greatest Blazer statistically though if he keeps this type of career up for another 10 years or so with Portland.

I assume part of this backlash against him was due to the tremendous hype around him after he hit that shot against Houston a few years back.

I think the backlash is mostly just the nature of fans to only focus on the negative. Everyone whips themselves into a frenzy over his weakness as a defender (something I find massively overrated in general when it comes to wanting a defensive stopper at PG) that they totally overlook what he's done in every other aspect of the game.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

... I assume part of this backlash against him was due to the tremendous hype around him after he hit that shot against Houston a few years back.

I remember sadly thinking, some time shortly after the excitement wore off, that that shot may very well be Dame's "biggest moment".

[monopoman]

Read on Twitter

Yeah, it just blows my mind how underrated Lillard has become by those on RealGM in a short time. I think he has a shot as going down as the greatest Blazer of all time even if he doesn't win a championship in his NBA career. He will likely get at least the nod as greatest Blazer statistically though if he keeps this type of career up for another 10 years or so with Portland.

I assume part of this backlash against him was due to the tremendous hype around him after he hit that shot against Houston a few years back.

I think the backlash is mostly just the nature of fans to only focus on the negative. Everyone whips themselves into a frenzy over his weakness as a defender (something I find massively overrated in general when it comes to wanting a defensive stopper at PG) that they totally overlook what he's done in every other aspect of the game.

Well this is especially true because teams have done a lot with a poor defender as the PG, I mean IT on the Celtics is actually an even worse defender, and Steve Nash was a net negative defensively it sure as heck didn't stop those teams from doing well. Houston is also able to cover for James Harden who while not a horrible defender definitely is nowhere near even average.

Team Defense >>> One great defender

Good defense takes a lot more than one player making great defensive plays.

[Wizenheimer]

Well this is especially true because teams have done a lot with a poor defender as the PG, I mean IT on the Celtics is actually an even worse defender, and Steve Nash was a net negative defensively it sure as heck didn't stop those teams from doing well. Houston is also able to cover for James Harden who while not a horrible defender definitely is nowhere near even average.

Team Defense >>> One great defender

Good defense takes a lot more than one player making great defensive plays.

of those guards you mentioned, It's worth pointing out their back court partners:

When Nash was on successful teams in Dallas and Phoenix, he was paired with Michael Finley & Raja Bell in Dallas, and then Joe Johnson and Raja Bell in Phoenix. Bell made all-NBA-defense a couple of times; in fact, after Phoenix signed Nash, they went out and signed Bell just for the purpose of pairing his defense with Nash.

Isaiah Thomas is paired with either Avery Bradley or Marcus Smart...two excellent perimeter defenders

Harden has Patrick Beverly, Corey Brewer, and Trevor Ariza to add perimeter defense. Even Eric Gordon, when healthy, is a decent defender.

but Lillard has CJ and Crabbe, two players just about as bad as he is on defense. Until that's addressed, all the chatter about improving Blazer defense will be just that, chatter. A rim protector would be nice, but he can't do a lot when the back court defense is a complete sieve. It's worth noting that in opponent FG% at the rim (0-3'), the Blazers actually rank 2nd in the NBA. They have been good at challenging shots at the rim. Outside of that 3' barrier is where Portland 'fails'. They rank 23rd in opponent FG% in the 3-10' zone; 25th in the 10-16' zone; 24th in the 16-23' zone; and 28th on three's. A rim protector might be able to impact that 3-10' zone, but maybe not nearly as much as we'd hope

I'm actually beginning to think that this almost unanimous wish among Blazer fans for a rim protecting C is significantly overrating the impact a player like that would have. As long as Portland has the 3-guard rotation of Dame-CJ-Crabbe, the defense will be a major weakness. That's 2 floor positions almost guaranteed to have league-worst defense. What other teams with those PG's you mentioned have been able to do is to hide those poor defenders on the other team's weakest offensive threats. That's rather easy to do when you only have to hide one defender. But Portland has to hide two, and that's next to impossible

[Pattycakes]

So I think it's safe to say Evan Turner should not be shooting 3s...

[zzaj]

The takeaway from this game for me was seeing how much better Turner is starting to play with both Lillard and CJ. You can tell that teams are having a little more trouble defending the Blazer sets when Turner brings the ball up and Lillard and CJ are effectively 2 SGs. I would doubt this Blazer offensive wrinkle is in opposing teams' scouting reports, yet.

I know you've been pushing for Turner starting for a while; I have to say, I didn't agree with it before, and now that I've seen it, I disagree with it even more.

I don't think it's a coincidence that Lillard's shooting percentages have tanked at about the same time that Turner has been starting. I think the mesh between Dame and Turner is not a good one for Dame. Bad synergy there. And any trade-off that might make Turner 'better' but Dame worse is not a good one IMO. Certainly, Lillard wasn't shooting well when he first came back from his injury, but I'm just seeing him somewhat unsure of his role when all three ball-handlers are in the game.

the whole point of getting a player like Turner was so that the Blazers would have two capable ball-handlers on the floor at all times. But with Turner starting, There's no way to maintain that 2-on-the-floor rotation. Turner and CJ get their rests at about the same time, But Dame is the one left holding the weakened ball-handling bag. Further, since Turner has been starting we're seeing a lot more of the ball-handling version of Aminu and that's a version we don't need or want, but with a ball-handling void, Aminu will step in....and stumble when he does

and then there's the Harkless factor. I think Mo is a better player then Turner. He also has a lot more upside. I'd hate to see his development held back because of some futile 'win-the-most-games-they-can' approach. Blazers aren't going to catch the 7th seed IMO, no matter who it is. The 'best' they can do is 8th seed with a date against the Warriors. That will very likely be a sweep, and the chances are that most of the games will be blow-outs.

Wiz, I agree with you on a lot of the points you bring up...

Harkless certainly has a lot more upside than Turner. I wouldn't necessarily call him a "better" player, currently...they just play very differently. Turner absolutely needs the ball in his hands to be effective (and even still isn't very good) and Harkless is the opposite of that, more of a hustle cleaning up garbage type player. No doubt, when Harkless has good games he looks like a future cornerstone of the franchise. I'm sure there are stats to back that up. Outside of backing up SPAM, I have no good sense of why Stotts has jerked him around in the rotation. It's pretty clear that when he has a clear role and minutes, he plays well.

Outside of that last GS game, I hadn't really seen Aminu step into his bumbling, one man fast breaking himself, self for a little while. I think everyone agrees that version of Aminu is a bad one. I still don't understand why Stotts lets him get away with that stuff instead of 'finding a guard' like they teach you in Elementary School basketball.

I think your opinion about Lillard, Harkless and Aminu looking a bit lost for a role is spot on. I understand it a bit with Lillard as he's been the primary ball handler pretty much since he picked up a basketball--I imagine it'd take a bit of adjustment. I think you agree with me though that having sets with Lillard getting more time off ball is a good thing. Vonleh's uptick in PT has affected the PF rotation a bit too.

My chemistry points about Turner are more about a balancing than an end result. It's pretty obvious based on the record and chemistry that Lillard doing his 'hero ball' thing like we've seen at the beginning of the year isn't going to work with this roster. It's also pretty obvious that the way the rotation is set CURRENTLY isn't going to work long term for the reasons we've all mentioned...even though the Blazers have won 3 in a row (which is saying a lot given what was happening before) and played pretty closely with an AS-studded GS team.

1) Lillard handles the ball pretty much exclusively which teams have scouted and was pretty ineffective with this roster in achieving wins.

2) Turner takes time initiating the offense, which trickles down and makes the roles of Lillard, Aminu, Harkless and even Plumlee a little less clear. Team is playing a bit better overall.

Neither one of those is a perfect scenario.

So there is a happy medium somewhere in the 'old way' and the 'new way' that Stotts has to find. One where everyone on the roster is playing to their strengths (and developing others in the case of young players), while also not losing offensive production, defensive production or team chemistry. That's basically his job. He has some real rotational question marks at the SG, SF and PF position. How to effectively use CJ, Crabbe, Turner, Aminu, Harkless and Vonleh (all players deserving minutes for various reasons) is IMO his 'nut to crack' as head coach, and will ultimately determine his effectiveness.

I'm also in the 'no need to win now' mindset. We should be playing Harkless, Vonleh, Crabbe and Layman. An 0-4 first round GS exit is about the worst outcome I can imagine for the team at this point.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I'm also in the 'no need to win now' mindset. We should be playing Harkless, Vonleh, Crabbe and Layman. An 0-4 first round GS exit is about the worst outcome I can imagine for the team at this point.

While I agree that there is no reason to bust our butts (such as selling off future assets) trying to make the post-season this year, there are plenty of benefits to making the post season. The only benefit to making the lottery is a slightly higher pick, when usually there isn't a huge drop-off in talent outside the top 10 anyways. It would be significant if we were discussing a top 5 pick versus the playoffs, but the 10th pick versus the 15th doesn't guarantee anything IMO.

Countered against that are several key benefits:
1. The distinction of being a playoff team. Players notice these kinds of things, it makes it easier to retain free agents who may be looking at better situations, it improves your image around the league. Yeah all that is intangible benefits, but being able to say this team made the playoffs X-number of years in a row does help maintain player relations and fan following.
2. Extra money, which is especially attractive for an expensive roster like our own. If Paul Allen has the 3rd highest payroll for a playoff team, that is a very different conversation (one with less harsh of consequences) than the 3rd highest payroll for a lottery team.
3. Anything can happen. Blazers could catch fire, Warriors could suffer a key injury. This is the NBA and crazier things have happened. Even if its not likely, there is zero chance of a miracle if you don't put yourself in a position to capitalize on fate.