Woj: Nurkic traded to the Blazers

[Wickzki]

Nurkic for Plumlee?

NEO, you're having a lend of me.

This is the price we pay for signing Meyers and Crabbe to stupid deals.

[Wizenheimer]

Well, I had a feeling this was coming. I agree that this is a good deal given the situation the Blazers were in with Plumlee.

However, for me being forced to move on from Plumlee should be the final nail in the coffin for Olshey's tenure. This pretty conclusively refutes the idea that Allen was willing to spend unlimited amounts of money on this team and instructed Olshey to deal with free agents accordingly and keep the team together at all costs. Or, at least it means that if he ever said this he's changed his mind. In either case, Olshey is not absolved of the basic general manager responsibility to spend wisely and manage the roster with one eye on the present and one on the future (including the expectations and owner satisfaction of the future).

Mason Plumlee is much, much better than Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe, and Meyers Leonard. He fit well with this team, had worked himself into a large role, and was still showing signs of growth. Matching him at whatever ungodly sum he's going to receive this summer would have been a risk, but if the Blazers could have afforded to retain him, I am reasonably confident in guessing that they would have done so. And this would have been better for the team than the current reality, where Crabbe and Turner each got that kind of money, and Meyers will be collecting $10 million annually for being quite literally one of the worst players in the NBA. I think several Blazers, especially Lillard, will miss Mason even more than fans will. I think he'll miss Portland, too, as he seeks a situation that enables him to thrive.

So, sure, good trade. I like Nurkic and had him in mind as a potential replacement or backup to Plumlee. There is a non-zero chance he really takes off here and makes Mason forgettable. But there's a greater chance, IMO, that he is and remains a downgrade to the terribly underrated Plumlee and that he and the draft pick never recoup the on-court value that Plumlee represented. If that happens, how can this be seen as anything but a negative consequence of the stupid spending spree of 2016?

good post Tim and I agree with almost everything you said

I especially agree with the notion that Lillard will miss Plumlee most of all. Plumlee did a lot of good things for Lillard and it showed in the stats. Absent any major change, the void in offensive facilitation from Plumlee's departure will probably be filled by Turner's ball-pounding-shot-clock-burning iso offense, and that hasn't been good for Lillard at all. But that's what happens with a bollixed roster

Plumlee was underrated, and his positive impact to Portland was underrated. He was the third best Blazer, and if you value defense, an argument could be made that Plumlee was as important to Portland as CJ

so Portland downgraded in talent and downgraded a position because of the mistakes of last summer. It's only because of the financial reality and that 1st round pick that it can be said this trade was a good one for Portland; the Plumlee/Nurkic swap wasn't

[DusterBuster]

Nurkic for Plumlee?

NEO, you're having a lend of me.

This is the price we pay for signing Meyers and Crabbe to stupid deals.

This may be a dumb question, but what's the meaning of this colloquialism? Never heard it before?

[Wickzki]

Nurkic for Plumlee?

NEO, you're having a lend of me.

This is the price we pay for signing Meyers and Crabbe to stupid deals.

This may be a dumb question, but what's the meaning of this colloquialism? Never heard it before?

It's an Aussie term meaning that someone is lying/joking with you for their own amusement.

I'm not a fan of Nurkic. Have read too many reports from people that I trust that he's a bit of a headcase.

[Dzon Dilindzer]

[Wizenheimer]

Nurkic's strength is his ability to run the pick and roll as well. That's much of his game, and a lot of what people said was the problem in Denver, since Malone doesn't run a pick and roll style offense. He's also has good mobility and very good lateral quickness. He's not going to jump out of the gym or anything, but hes not Roy Hibbert.

his PnR stats at NBA.com aren't great but they are above average and he's young, so there is some hope there, except of course that Stotts runs PnPop a lot more then PnR. Maybe with somebody strong enough to go inside there will be more PnR, but Dame is the only Blazer ball-handler that seems to look for PnR opportunities for the roll man, and he doesn't do it that often. Dame-CJ-Turner generally use the pick as a starting point for their iso-heavy offense

from what I've seen, he does seem to have decent mobility for a guy his size

a real downside is that Nurkic has a much higher usage rate then Plumlee and he's an absolute turnover machine. He has a 19% turnover rate this season (3.7 per36). So, if he keeps turning it over like that in PnR it won't be a strength

He certainly won't run a break like Plumlee does, but Robin Lopez didn't either, and our offense was just fine with him

oh c'mon...really?

do you think the presence of Aldridge, Matthews, and Batum had anything to do with that Blazer offense

I understand if people want to be enthusiastic about Nurkic; but to parlay that into diminishing the impact Plumlee had on the Blazers doesn't make much sense. He was Portland's 3rd most talented player, and the gap between him and 4th was huge. An already talent-short team in Portland just downgraded talent because of what happened last summer. Maybe Nurkic has a higher realistic ceiling, maybe not

the best near-term outcome from this trade, other then perhaps the Memphis pick, is that if you go by winshares, the downgrade from Plumlee to Nurkic would mean 2-3 fewer wins the rest of the way. That's good for the Blazer pick, although I still suspect that closing 12 game stretch for Portland will push them into the 8th seed. That's unfortunate as I'm all for tanking right now

[Fitz303]

Well, I had a feeling this was coming. I agree that this is a good deal given the situation the Blazers were in with Plumlee.

However, for me being forced to move on from Plumlee should be the final nail in the coffin for Olshey's tenure. This pretty conclusively refutes the idea that Allen was willing to spend unlimited amounts of money on this team and instructed Olshey to deal with free agents accordingly and keep the team together at all costs. Or, at least it means that if he ever said this he's changed his mind. In either case, Olshey is not absolved of the basic general manager responsibility to spend wisely and manage the roster with one eye on the present and one on the future (including the expectations and owner satisfaction of the future).

Mason Plumlee is much, much better than Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe, and Meyers Leonard. He fit well with this team, had worked himself into a large role, and was still showing signs of growth. Matching him at whatever ungodly sum he's going to receive this summer would have been a risk, but if the Blazers could have afforded to retain him, I am reasonably confident in guessing that they would have done so. And this would have been better for the team than the current reality, where Crabbe and Turner each got that kind of money, and Meyers will be collecting $10 million annually for being quite literally one of the worst players in the NBA. I think several Blazers, especially Lillard, will miss Mason even more than fans will. I think he'll miss Portland, too, as he seeks a situation that enables him to thrive.

So, sure, good trade. I like Nurkic and had him in mind as a potential replacement or backup to Plumlee. There is a non-zero chance he really takes off here and makes Mason forgettable. But there's a greater chance, IMO, that he is and remains a downgrade to the terribly underrated Plumlee and that he and the draft pick never recoup the on-court value that Plumlee represented. If that happens, how can this be seen as anything but a negative consequence of the stupid spending spree of 2016?

good post Tim and I agree with almost everything you said

I especially agree with the notion that Lillard will miss Plumlee most of all. Plumlee did a lot of good things for Lillard and it showed in the stats. Absent any major change, the void in offensive facilitation from Plumlee's departure will probably be filled by Turner's ball-pounding-shot-clock-burning iso offense, and that hasn't been good for Lillard at all. But that's what happens with a bollixed roster

Plumlee was underrated, and his positive impact to Portland was underrated. He was the third best Blazer, and if you value defense, an argument could be made that Plumlee was as important to Portland as CJ

so Portland downgraded in talent and downgraded a position because of the mistakes of last summer. It's only because of the financial reality and that 1st round pick that it can be said this trade was a good one for Portland; the Plumlee/Nurkic swap wasn't

How can you say that they downgraded in talent? Downgraded in production this season? Probably. But talent? Nurkic is only 22 years old. He was drafted higher than Plumlee. He's younger now than Plumlee was when he first came into the league. Go look at Nurkic's footwork on the low block (just one easy example). He's a talented player. The per minute numbers are pretty solid for Nurkic, and overall, are better than Plumlee's. As of this season, Plumlee is the better player, but that's not talent level. Nurkic has the talent. The question is, does he put it together in Stotts' system. We'll see.

I like Plumlee, and it's sad to see him go. But he was a limited player. You couldn't throw the ball down low, and let him go to work. He didn't scare anybody when they came down the lane. His playmaking is nothing to scoff at, but as I said earlier, Lillard did just fine when he had Robin Lopez down low. I don't think Plumlee's playmaking will be missed all that much. Lillard, McCollum, and Turner are plenty of playmakers. They need a BIG man down low. This is a risk, there's no doubt. But to get a young, talented player, along with a 1st rd pick, I don't see this as a trade because of the contracts that were signed this offseason. I see this as a chance at a longterm upgrade at Center and to gain a 1st rd pick in a loaded draft. That's a win, regardless of contracts.

[Fitz303]

Nurkic's strength is his ability to run the pick and roll as well. That's much of his game, and a lot of what people said was the problem in Denver, since Malone doesn't run a pick and roll style offense. He's also has good mobility and very good lateral quickness. He's not going to jump out of the gym or anything, but hes not Roy Hibbert.

his PnR stats at NBA.com aren't great but they are above average and he's young, so there is some hope there, except of course that Stotts runs PnPop a lot more then PnR. Maybe with somebody strong enough to go inside there will be more PnR, but Dame is the only Blazer ball-handler that seems to look for PnR opportunities for the roll man, and he doesn't do it that often. Dame-CJ-Turner generally use the pick as a starting point for their iso-heavy offense

from what I've seen, he does seem to have decent mobility for a guy his size

a real downside is that Nurkic has a much higher usage rate then Plumlee and he's an absolute turnover machine. He has a 19% turnover rate this season (3.7 per36). So, if he keeps turning it over like that in PnR it won't be a strength

He certainly won't run a break like Plumlee does, but Robin Lopez didn't either, and our offense was just fine with him

oh c'mon...really?

do you think the presence of Aldridge, Matthews, and Batum had anything to do with that Blazer offense

I understand if people want to be enthusiastic about Nurkic; but to parlay that into diminishing the impact Plumlee had on the Blazers doesn't make much sense. He was Portland's 3rd most talented player, and the gap between him and 4th was huge. An already talent-short team in Portland just downgraded talent because of what happened last summer. Maybe Nurkic has a higher realistic ceiling, maybe not

the best near-term outcome from this trade, other then perhaps the Memphis pick, is that if you go by winshares, the downgrade from Plumlee to Nurkic would mean 2-3 fewer wins the rest of the way. That's good for the Blazer pick, although I still suspect that closing 12 game stretch for Portland will push them into the 8th seed. That's unfortunate as I'm all for tanking right now

First, I agree on the turnovers. That's my biggest concern with him offensively. He's got some work to do, and is far from a finished product. He's gotta slow down on the low block at times.

Second, LMA, Matthews, and Batum had a lot to do with that offense. However, Aldridge and Matthews weren't playmakers. CJ and Turner can break down an offense, and find the open man. This is all I'm saying. Lillard didn't NEED the playmaker at Center. Don't take that as a slight on Plumlee. I've said before that I think he's criminally underrated here. However, Stotts worked an offensive system quite well without a big time playmaker in the middle, including last year. This team has seriously missed having a big man that they can throw the ball to down low, and get a bucket, or draw in the defense, for an open shot. This kid's got the talent to be able to be that guy. Whether or not he puts it together, (again) we'll see

[Dzon Dilindzer]

heres some Nurkics highlights against Trail Blazers

http://www.nba.com/blazers/video/021217-nurkic

[Wizenheimer]

How can you say that they downgraded in talent?

Fitz, I say it because it's true, and that's because I don't equate potential with talent. They aren't the same thing. And the reason I don't is because for a vast majority of players, potential is an eye-of-the-beholder thing

you can look at a young player like Lebron or Anthony Davis and see the realistic potential. For players like Nurkic, realistic is a lot closer to current. And I think that's especially true for big men

I had to endure 3 years of debate here from people saying how much talent Meyers Leonard had. The same was true, although on a shorter time frame, for TRob..."oh man, that guy is talented; he was just in a bad place in Sacramento". But it turns out all that potential talent was all a mirage. And that's what happens with a lot of big men, a majority actually

I'm actually a bit hopeful for Nurkic, contrary to how your perceive my post. He's young, he's big & physical, he's fairly mobile. That offers decent potential for development. But he also has flaws to his game and comes with some definite concerns about his attitude.

it's also worth pointing out that Nurkic will be in the same contract situation next year as Plumlee was this year. In other words, if nothing is done about the albatross contracts Portland is carrying, the Blazers will be right back to where they were when they made this trade

[Wizenheimer]

Blazer players, mainly Dame, react to the trade:

http://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/index.ssf/2017/02/portland_trail_blazers_players_stunned_by_trade_of.html#incart_2box

[krakdol]

As a neutral (utah jazz) fan, I'd say it's a great trade for your team. Nurkic is better than Plumlee. He'll bring you interior defense, which is something your team sorely needed. Then you get the pick as a bonus.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Man, I go out of town for a couple nights and this happens. Been watching the reactions, but it is surprising how far off we all were guessing Nurkic to Portland trades. The pick definitely went the opposite direction. I'm not wholly surprised though that GMs see more value in Plumlee than we do, as I have been saying he is underrated here.

[Blazinaway]

Man, I go out of town for a couple nights and this happens. Been watching the reactions, but it is surprising how far off we all were guessing Nurkic to Portland trades. The pick definitely went the opposite direction. I'm not wholly surprised though that GMs see more value in Plumlee than we do, as I have been saying he is underrated here.

Plumlee underrated yes, but after reading the Nuggets board it appears many thought Nurks lousy attitude and hence poor play the past several weeks really tanked his value, with his good/cheap contract AND getting a solid 1st rd pick its really a very low risk/high reward situation IMO and POR after last summers fiasco simply has to take some risks like this

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Man, I go out of town for a couple nights and this happens. Been watching the reactions, but it is surprising how far off we all were guessing Nurkic to Portland trades. The pick definitely went the opposite direction. I'm not wholly surprised though that GMs see more value in Plumlee than we do, as I have been saying he is underrated here.

Plumlee underrated yes, but after reading the Nuggets board it appears many thought Nurks lousy attitude and hence poor play the past several weeks really tanked his value, with his good/cheap contract AND getting a solid 1st rd pick its really a very low risk/high reward situation IMO and POR after last summers fiasco simply has to take some risks like this

Honestly that attitude problem is why I'm not jumping up and down about this trade. Portland has come to rely on Plumlee as an outlet when we see ball pressure, so Turner is really going to need to pick up some slack in that regard and with his inefficiencies I think overall it will hurt our offensive flow more than some people are probably expecting.

Anyways though, I don't really like players with a victim mentality. Physical talents only take you so far. Undoubtedly the situation is more complex than that, so I would really be interested in his work habits and other clues into his dedication level. I can understand if this is just a premeditated business attitude, using whatever means he can to get himself to a better situation (even if it appears whiny now, being in a bad situation these next two years could literally cost him 10's of millions of dollars) but if its just an emotional lashing out, than that would scare me.

[Blazinaway]

Man, I go out of town for a couple nights and this happens. Been watching the reactions, but it is surprising how far off we all were guessing Nurkic to Portland trades. The pick definitely went the opposite direction. I'm not wholly surprised though that GMs see more value in Plumlee than we do, as I have been saying he is underrated here.

Plumlee underrated yes, but after reading the Nuggets board it appears many thought Nurks lousy attitude and hence poor play the past several weeks really tanked his value, with his good/cheap contract AND getting a solid 1st rd pick its really a very low risk/high reward situation IMO and POR after last summers fiasco simply has to take some risks like this

Honestly that attitude problem is why I'm not jumping up and down about this trade. Portland has come to rely on Plumlee as an outlet when we see ball pressure, so Turner is really going to need to pick up some slack in that regard and with his inefficiencies I think overall it will hurt our offensive flow more than some people are probably expecting.

Anyways though, I don't really like players with a victim mentality. Physical talents only take you so far. Undoubtedly the situation is more complex than that, so I would really be interested in his work habits and other clues into his dedication level. I can understand if this is just a premeditated business attitude, using whatever means he can to get himself to a better situation (even if it appears whiny now, being in a bad situation these next two years could literally cost him 10's of millions of dollars) but if its just an emotional lashing out, than that would scare me.

we'll find out first hand about his tude and work effort. I have concerns as well but I will again repeat the low risk/high reward euation here and this IMO was exactly the kind of "risk" Por needed to take and we got a friggin 1st rdr in the deal as well! Nurk gets a new team with I think strong leadership and what will likely be all the minutes he needs to prove himself. It will be interesting

[zzaj]

Well, I had a feeling this was coming. I agree that this is a good deal given the situation the Blazers were in with Plumlee.

However, for me being forced to move on from Plumlee should be the final nail in the coffin for Olshey's tenure. This pretty conclusively refutes the idea that Allen was willing to spend unlimited amounts of money on this team and instructed Olshey to deal with free agents accordingly and keep the team together at all costs. Or, at least it means that if he ever said this he's changed his mind. In either case, Olshey is not absolved of the basic general manager responsibility to spend wisely and manage the roster with one eye on the present and one on the future (including the expectations and owner satisfaction of the future).

Mason Plumlee is much, much better than Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe, and Meyers Leonard. He fit well with this team, had worked himself into a large role, and was still showing signs of growth. Matching him at whatever ungodly sum he's going to receive this summer would have been a risk, but if the Blazers could have afforded to retain him, I am reasonably confident in guessing that they would have done so. And this would have been better for the team than the current reality, where Crabbe and Turner each got that kind of money, and Meyers will be collecting $10 million annually for being quite literally one of the worst players in the NBA. I think several Blazers, especially Lillard, will miss Mason even more than fans will. I think he'll miss Portland, too, as he seeks a situation that enables him to thrive.

So, sure, good trade. I like Nurkic and had him in mind as a potential replacement or backup to Plumlee. There is a non-zero chance he really takes off here and makes Mason forgettable. But there's a greater chance, IMO, that he is and remains a downgrade to the terribly underrated Plumlee and that he and the draft pick never recoup the on-court value that Plumlee represented. If that happens, how can this be seen as anything but a negative consequence of the stupid spending spree of 2016?

good post Tim and I agree with almost everything you said

I especially agree with the notion that Lillard will miss Plumlee most of all. Plumlee did a lot of good things for Lillard and it showed in the stats. Absent any major change, the void in offensive facilitation from Plumlee's departure will probably be filled by Turner's ball-pounding-shot-clock-burning iso offense, and that hasn't been good for Lillard at all. But that's what happens with a bollixed roster

Plumlee was underrated, and his positive impact to Portland was underrated. He was the third best Blazer, and if you value defense, an argument could be made that Plumlee was as important to Portland as CJ

so Portland downgraded in talent and downgraded a position because of the mistakes of last summer. It's only because of the financial reality and that 1st round pick that it can be said this trade was a good one for Portland; the Plumlee/Nurkic swap wasn't

I tend to think of this as one of those 'two steps backward, one step forward' type of players that we've been talking about in another thread--younger, cheaper, more upside. I don't think it's a slam dunk by Olshey because IMO his salary mismanagement created the situation to begin with.

Everyone has a different value set on Plumlee. If the Blazers would not have gone $$$ crazy this past summer, would Plumlee be the starting Center for years on end? Is he a building block worth the salary that the Blazers would have to had to gone all in for?

Plumlee's ball handling, passing and BBIQ are very, very good for his position. He's not ever going to compete with anybody for shots. But is he THE guy at Center over the next 4 years of Lillard's tenure?

I don't know the answers to any of these questions. I for one think of Plumlee as a step below starting quality for a very good team. He'd be ideal as a good backup C, but he'll likely get more money than that on the FA market. Ignoring Olshey's past summer, from a roster structure and salary standpoint, perhaps the Blazers dodged a bit of a bullet?

[Masterfully]

Portland has now moved into the top 5 of tankathon.com's draft value power rankings!

[Pdx4life]

I don't even get this debate. We wouldn't have been able to afford Plumlee anyways. It's a moot point. Blazers got the best young big they were going to be able to get their hands on plus a first round pick. Olshey is a genius.

[GreenRiddler]

:rockon: Portland has now moved into the top 5 of tankathon.com's draft value power rankings!

I still predict we make the playoffs.