Allen Crabbe Traded to Brooklyn

[Goldbum]

Now that Crabbe is gone what do you guys think of this sort of deal:
Aminu+ future 2nd
4
M.Herzonja, Marcus Georges-Hunt, Patricio Garino
???
From what I understand the last 2 guys are on non guaranteed deals. So we can waive Pat goodbye now and either cut the 2 right away or bring them into camp and see if one can make the team.
It looks to me like Orlando is trying really hard to build some sort of positive momentum and put together a respectable season. Aminu would help them win some games and they could use his positional versatility.
Portland is taking a low risk possible high reward type gamble here. The Magic have been pig-butt-awful at developing their young players, and the last 2 throw aways we've acquired from them have blossomed in our system (and neither was anywhere near as highly regarded coming into the league). If somehow Herzonja turns it around and becomes the player he was projected to be only a couple years ago this is a grand slam.
Also. I don't know if it's true but a poster on the general board wrote that Mario and Nurkic are best friends, would be nutz if he could have a similar reemergence in the Pacific Northwest.

Aminu makes: 7,319,035
Herzonja makes 3,909,840

So although this doesn't save us a Ton this year, it does knock us out of the tax completely, and that could be very important when you consider the possible Nurkic/Vonleh extensions and escalating penalties of the repeater tax.

[Billy]

I am pretty neutral on this deal.

On one hand, Crabbe was a bad contract that was never going to live up to the lofty money due to the fact he was always going to be behind CJ. While they do have to cope with some dead space for a number of years, they also obtained an asset in the 12.9ish million dollar TPE--something that letting him walk to Brooklyn last year would not have accomplished. They definitely freed up significant breathing room to avoid the tax which long term could be beneficial for a number of reasons.

On the other, Portland got worse. They don't really have a great option at backup SG (sorry Pat), and if they let that TPE expire for nothing it would essentially mean we ate a few million in dead space that we'll have to deal with for a number of years for a single year of under-performing Crabbe. It also pretty much kills Olshey's insistence that Portland wasn't going to make a cost-cutting move.

I imagine this is more of a precursor than anything, but right now this deal is a solid meh.

[Village Idiot]

Now that Crabbe is gone what do you guys think of this sort of deal:
Aminu+ future 2nd
4
M.Herzonja, Marcus Georges-Hunt, Patricio Garino
???
From what I understand the last 2 guys are on non guaranteed deals. So we can waive Pat goodbye now and either cut the 2 right away or bring them into camp and see if one can make the team.
It looks to me like Orlando is trying really hard to build some sort of positive momentum and put together a respectable season. Aminu would help them win some games and they could use his positional versatility.
Portland is taking a low risk possible high reward type gamble here. The Magic have been pig-butt-awful at developing their young players, and the last 2 throw aways we've acquired from them have blossomed in our system (and neither was anywhere near as highly regarded coming into the league). If somehow Herzonja turns it around and becomes the player he was projected to be only a couple years ago this is a grand slam.
Also. I don't know if it's true but a poster on the general board wrote that Mario and Nurkic are best friends, would be nutz if he could have a similar reemergence in the Pacific Northwest.

Aminu makes: 7,319,035
Herzonja makes 3,909,840

So although this doesn't save us a Ton this year, it does knock us out of the tax completely, and that could be very important when you consider the possible Nurkic/Vonleh extensions and escalating penalties of the repeater tax.

I've never been high on Aminu and has comments on gays irritated me. I also think Hezonja has a bunch of untapped potential. Orlando was a horrible fit for him with defensive minded coaches who needed to win immediately. As Harkless shows the Magic are not that good at nurturing and developing players. With the additional salary savings I say go for it.

On the other, Portland got worse. They don't really have a great option at backup SG (sorry Pat), and if they let that TPE expire for nothing it would essentially mean we ate a few million in dead space that we'll have to deal with for a number of years for a single year of under-performing Crabbe. It also pretty much kills Olshey's insistence that Portland wasn't going to make a cost-cutting move.

I imagine this is more of a precursor than anything, but right now this deal is a solid meh.

We still ET backing up the 2. He isn't the shooter Crabbe is but he has the "guard" part of shooting guard down better than most and create as well.

[zzaj]

For a host of reasons I would have much rather traded Turner, but Crabbe is too one dimensional for a team looking to improve.

I will say, barring any more moves I think that the Blazers are going to REALLY miss Crabbe's 3pt shooting and floor spacing gravity. Let's not forget that the Blazers traded away the second best 3pt % shooter in the NBA, and the #1 best, at home 3pt shooter in the NBA (51%)...that seems like a lot for Olshey to give up when you consider the trade was essentially to cover his own salary cap mistakes.

If Paul Allen decided he was going to fire Olshey over this move, I don't think I could really find a valid argument against it.

[BlazersBroncos]

I would definatley do an Aminu to Mario deal but with moving Crabbe for nothing, adding a deal of a vet for a unknown may really bother Lillard in his quest to play on a improved team.

I think Mario has a great amount of untapped potential though, and having his buddy on the team could really help.

[Dangeruss]

For a host of reasons I would have much rather traded Turner, but Crabbe is too one dimensional for a team looking to improve.

I will say, barring any more moves I think that the Blazers are going to REALLY miss Crabbe's 3pt shooting and floor spacing gravity. Let's not forget that the Blazers traded away the second best 3pt % shooter in the NBA, and the #1 best, at home 3pt shooter in the NBA (51%)...that seems like a lot for Olshey to give up when you consider the trade was essentially to cover his own salary cap mistakes.

If Paul Allen decided he was going to fire Olshey over this move, I don't think I could really find a valid argument against it.

Do you really think those starts were sustainable into this season? I don't. And what does it matter if he brings nothing else to the table. He didn't even develop into the 3D player he was supposed to be, so he wasn't worth the contract. 3 point shooting didn't make or break this team last season and it won't this season either.

[BlazersBroncos]

I definitely think Crabbe's 3PT shooting is sustainable. He should be a 42+% 3PT guy for his career. He would have been a great long term bench piece at 10-12M per season. But not at 19M. Not when he doesn't have great positional versatility and not when he is basically a one-way player.

[Wizenheimer]

On the other, Portland got worse. They don't really have a great option at backup SG (sorry Pat), and if they let that TPE expire for nothing it would essentially mean we ate a few million in dead space that we'll have to deal with for a number of years for a single year of under-performing Crabbe. It also pretty much kills Olshey's insistence that Portland wasn't going to make a cost-cutting move.

I imagine this is more of a precursor than anything, but right now this deal is a solid meh.

meh is probably an apt description for where it stands now...it will get worse then meh if nothing else happens; and might get better then meh if Portland can parlay the breathing room into another major trade

but at this point, the Blazers paid over 38M for a year of Crabbe and are still over the tax line; in fact, they are in the apron which in a couple of ways is worse then being over the apron. They just spent an entire season where they were right at the tax line and that restricted their flexibility

and: for the next 7 years, Portland will be competing at a disadvantage against the rest of NBA teams. For example, because of Nicholson's stretch, while other teams will operate under a 100M or a 102M salary cap, Portland will operate under a 97M or a 99M cap; while other teams will operate under a 120M or a 122M tax threshold, Portland's will be 117M or 119M. Yeah, that's not a huge difference but we've seen over and over how 3M more in cap-space or 3M less in tax margin can make a significant difference for a team's chances at upgrades

in a vacuum, dumping Crabbe without attaching assets looks like a decent deal. But the trade did cost Portland. And based on winshares, the Blazers got 4 wins worse yesterday while losing a floor-space. From what I've seen of the Stotts offense, Crabbe will be missed, especially if it's the brick-laying Turner taking his minutes

We still ET backing up the 2. He isn't the shooter Crabbe is but he has the "guard" part of shooting guard down better than most and create as well.

Turner is way too much of a ball-pounder though and from what I saw, he and Dame were a real poor fit last season when they shared the floor. Just didn't work and it looked like the same thing was happening with CJ in the latter part of the season. The big difference is that Crabbe was a catch & shoot player...the ball wouldn't stop in his hands; he'd either shoot or pass in a couple of seconds. That meshed well with Dame & CJ. Turner is a catch and dribble player; he stops the ball. Worse is that he's pathetically inefficient on offense. Look at Portland's TS% numbers fro last season:

Pat Connaughton .645
Allen Crabbe .602
Damian Lillard .586
C.J. McCollum .585
Maurice Harkless .570
Ed Davis .563
Mason Plumlee .552
Jusuf Nurkic .545
Shabazz Napier .533
Noah Vonleh .525
Tim Quarterman .511
Meyers Leonard .507
Al-Farouq Aminu .506
Evan Turner .491
Jake Layman .404

literally, everybody but Layman was a better offensive option. And I think Turner devalues his offensive-initiation role because he chews up so much shot clock. I also question how good his court vision is. His vision seems much better on the interior but Portland is a perimeter team

plus, I think his defense was overrated when he was signed. He's a solid defender against NBA size on the wings. He can push up against Lebron and Melo and be somewhat credible. But he's weak at defending NBA perimeter speed, and that's a problem if's he playing lots of SG. of course, at that skill, he'll be better then Crabbe

[HoopsFanAZ]

Village Idiot, if you're referring to Aminu's tweets from when he was 19 at college and early on in his pro career, this article from May of 2016 has him saying that at that period his account had been hacked, friends told him about odd posts, and he changed passwords and information.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/15477852/al-farouq-aminu-portland-trail-blazers-says-write-homophobic-tweets-surfaced-twitter-feed

I didn't remember hearing about any of this, so I did a quick search. If you're referring to other sources or anything more recent, then, again, I have no knowledge about those. And all of this is why I don't do Facebook, Twitter ... pretty much everything except a couple boards like this one. I try to keep my social media footprint "environmentally" green and clean.

[Village Idiot]

On the other, Portland got worse. They don't really have a great option at backup SG (sorry Pat), and if they let that TPE expire for nothing it would essentially mean we ate a few million in dead space that we'll have to deal with for a number of years for a single year of under-performing Crabbe. It also pretty much kills Olshey's insistence that Portland wasn't going to make a cost-cutting move.

I imagine this is more of a precursor than anything, but right now this deal is a solid meh.

meh is probably an apt description for where it stands now...it will get worse then meh if nothing else happens; and might get better then meh if Portland can parlay the breathing room into another major trade

but at this point, the Blazers paid over 38M for a year of Crabbe and are still over the tax line; in fact, they are in the apron which in a couple of ways is worse then being over the apron. They just spent an entire season where they were right at the tax line and that restricted their flexibility

and: for the next 7 years, Portland will be competing at a disadvantage against the rest of NBA teams. For example, because of Nicholson's stretch, while other teams will operate under a 100M or a 102M salary cap, Portland will operate under a 97M or a 99M cap; while other teams will operate under a 120M or a 122M tax threshold, Portland's will be 117M or 119M. Yeah, that's not a huge difference but we've seen over and over how 3M more in cap-space or 3M less in tax margin can make a significant difference for a team's chances at upgrades

in a vacuum, dumping Crabbe without attaching assets looks like a decent deal. But the trade did cost Portland. And based on winshares, the Blazers got 4 wins worse yesterday while losing a floor-space. From what I've seen of the Stotts offense, Crabbe will be missed, especially if it's the brick-laying Turner taking his minutes

We still ET backing up the 2. He isn't the shooter Crabbe is but he has the "guard" part of shooting guard down better than most and create as well.

Turner is way too much of a ball-pounder though and from what I saw, he and Dame were a real poor fit last season when they shared the floor. Just didn't work and it looked like the same thing was happening with CJ in the latter part of the season. The big difference is that Crabbe was a catch & shoot player...the ball wouldn't stop in his hands; he'd either shoot or pass in a couple of seconds. That meshed well with Dame & CJ. Turner is a catch and dribble player; he stops the ball. Worse is that he's pathetically inefficient on offense. Look at Portland's TS% numbers fro last season:

Pat Connaughton .645
Allen Crabbe .602
Damian Lillard .586
C.J. McCollum .585
Maurice Harkless .570
Ed Davis .563
Mason Plumlee .552
Jusuf Nurkic .545
Shabazz Napier .533
Noah Vonleh .525
Tim Quarterman .511
Meyers Leonard .507
Al-Farouq Aminu .506
Evan Turner .491
Jake Layman .404

literally, everybody but Layman was a better offensive option. And I think Turner devalues his offensive-initiation role because he chews up so much shot clock. I also question how good his court vision is. His vision seems much better on the interior but Portland is a perimeter team

plus, I think his defense was overrated when he was signed. He's a solid defender against NBA size on the wings. He can push up against Lebron and Melo and be somewhat credible. But he's weak at defending NBA perimeter speed, and that's a problem if's he playing lots of SG. of course, at that skill, he'll be better then Crabbe

Amen brother. You're preaching to the choir on this one. I wouldn't have minded Turner at the MLE last season but his current salary is grossly out of whack with his contribution. If we could give him away for nothing I would gladly do so. His style is not at all congruent with Stotts'. Really we don't even need his defense with Aminu and Harkless available. Lance Stephenson or Tyreke Evans are very similar players and each make about $3 million this upcoming season Jeff Green is another guy I'd rather have and he's also making less than $3 million.

[Magic_Johnny12]

Now that Crabbe is gone what do you guys think of this sort of deal:
Aminu+ future 2nd
4
M.Herzonja, Marcus Georges-Hunt, Patricio Garino
???
From what I understand the last 2 guys are on non guaranteed deals. So we can waive Pat goodbye now and either cut the 2 right away or bring them into camp and see if one can make the team.
It looks to me like Orlando is trying really hard to build some sort of positive momentum and put together a respectable season. Aminu would help them win some games and they could use his positional versatility.
Portland is taking a low risk possible high reward type gamble here. The Magic have been pig-butt-awful at developing their young players, and the last 2 throw aways we've acquired from them have blossomed in our system (and neither was anywhere near as highly regarded coming into the league). If somehow Herzonja turns it around and becomes the player he was projected to be only a couple years ago this is a grand slam.
Also. I don't know if it's true but a poster on the general board wrote that Mario and Nurkic are best friends, would be nutz if he could have a similar reemergence in the Pacific Northwest.

Aminu makes: 7,319,035
Herzonja makes 3,909,840

So although this doesn't save us a Ton this year, it does knock us out of the tax completely, and that could be very important when you consider the possible Nurkic/Vonleh extensions and escalating penalties of the repeater tax.

If we are dealing Hezonja we are either attaching a negative asset to him or getting better compensation than a low 2nd rd pick and acquiring yet another wing player. Could see a deal being made around Swanigan though.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Wiz,

Absolutely, Crabbe's shooting 3's and spacing the court will be missed if Turner's stroke is remotely part of the answer ... not that that is the plan or anything. And definitely the Crabbe rental/overpay is an admission it was a mistake/didn't work out ... add more spin ... It is costly, but the fix could be a lot worse.

Crabbe should have worked harder on his D. Like Jerryd Bayless should've worked harder on his handles and his D until it was too late with the Blazers. But players do address these weaknesses -- Przybilla and his aversion to free throws had him shying away from touching the ball unless he was within dunking distance; then, he did the work, stuck with it, and actually started looking for the ball in the paint on P&R. Layman, at least, is saying the right words at Summer League about working on his D as being his highest priority; hitting his 3's and developing his overall game matter, too.

Too bad Nicholson's contract had 2 yrs plus a player option. Or too bad that he wasn't good enough to keep and trade away Ed Davis for nothing (or waive Easy ED and take only a one-year hit on tax).

My guess ... is that the Blazers/Olshey decided to -- without admitting being wrong -- get beneath the apron this year and avoid the repeat tax offender status that would've happened with Nurkic getting the big bucks in 2018-2019 ... OR ... a deal is too good to pass up this summer/fall, they'll pay tax at the end of this coming season, and then deal with 2018-2019 tax implications when they come. I think I've covered some of the bases and eventualities ... but I could be wrong.

[DusterBuster]

Wiz,

Absolutely, Crabbe's shooting 3's and spacing the court will be missed if Turner's stroke is remotely part of the answer ... not that that is the plan or anything. And definitely the Crabbe rental/overpay is an admission it was a mistake/didn't work out ... add more spin ... It is costly, but the fix could be a lot worse.

Crabbe should have worked harder on his D. Like Jerryd Bayless should've worked harder on his handles and his D until it was too late with the Blazers. But players do address these weaknesses -- Przybilla and his aversion to free throws had him shying away from touching the ball unless he was within dunking distance; then, he did the work, stuck with it, and actually started looking for the ball in the paint on P&R. Layman, at least, is saying the right words at Summer League about working on his D as being his highest priority; hitting his 3's and developing his overall game matter, too.

Too bad Nicholson's contract had 2 yrs plus a player option. Or too bad that he wasn't good enough to keep and trade away Ed Davis for nothing (or waive Easy ED and take only a one-year hit on tax).

My guess ... is that the Blazers/Olshey decided to -- without admitting being wrong -- get beneath the apron this year and avoid the repeat tax offender status that would've happened with Nurkic getting the big bucks in 2018-2019 ... OR ... a deal is too good to pass up this summer/fall, they'll pay tax at the end of this coming season, and then deal with 2018-2019 tax implications when they come. I think I've covered some of the bases and eventualities ... but I could be wrong.

I do think Portland was - rightly so - disappointed by Crabbe's progress this past season. I don't think they were expecting him to set the world on fire with scoring, but defensively I think they expected him to put in a lot more work and show major progress on that end and it never came to be.

[Village Idiot]

Village Idiot, if you're referring to Aminu's tweets from when he was 19 at college and early on in his pro career, this article from May of 2016 has him saying that at that period his account had been hacked, friends told him about odd posts, and he changed passwords and information.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/15477852/al-farouq-aminu-portland-trail-blazers-says-write-homophobic-tweets-surfaced-twitter-feed

I didn't remember hearing about any of this, so I did a quick search. If you're referring to other sources or anything more recent, then, again, I have no knowledge about those. And all of this is why I don't do Facebook, Twitter ... pretty much everything except a couple boards like this one. I try to keep my social media footprint "environmentally" green and clean.

Thanks for enlightening me. I was not aware of the details.

[Village Idiot]

BTW, anyone know what's up with Blazersedge? The quality of the site has gone rapidly downhill the past year. It took them close to an hour to get anything up on the Crabbe trade and they still haven't done any good analysis.

[DusterBuster]

BTW, anyone know what's up with Blazersedge? The quality of the site has gone rapidly downhill the past year. It took them close to an hour to get anything up on the Crabbe trade and they still haven't done any good analysis.

I don't think they're fan run anymore. Some big corp bought them out I believe.

It'd be fun to have another real Blazer blog up and running again with good content like BE used to be. If anyone wants to get that rolling and writing content, I can help set up the site lol.

[Wizenheimer]

My guess ... is that the Blazers/Olshey decided to -- without admitting being wrong -- get beneath the apron this year and avoid the repeat tax offender status that would've happened with Nurkic getting the big bucks in 2018-2019 ... OR ... a deal is too good to pass up this summer/fall, they'll pay tax at the end of this coming season, and then deal with 2018-2019 tax implications when they come. I think I've covered some of the bases and eventualities ... but I could be wrong.

just so you know, and I'm not saying you don't, just that may people get this wrong...

the trigger for the repeater tax is when a team has been a taxpayer for any 3 of the 4 previous seasons.

Portland wasn't a taxpayer last season and they are less then a million away from dropping under the threshold next season. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Portland avoids being a taxpayer next season. They could drop under the threshold by waiving Connaughton. Or, they could look for trade options for Ed Davis. He is an expiring contract and it's very unlikely that Portland will re-sign him. Logic would indicate the Blazers should try and get an asset for him, even if it was no more then a decent 2nd round opportunity. And of course there should be other trade options that could knock a million off payroll

if that happens, the earliest that Portland could be assessed a repeater tax penalty is sometime in April, 2022. That will be after every single current contract has expired. The only 2 deals that could might be on the books are the QO's of Collins and Swanigan

in other words, Portland is in no danger at this point of paying any repeater tax

[Goldbum]

BTW, anyone know what's up with Blazersedge? The quality of the site has gone rapidly downhill the past year. It took them close to an hour to get anything up on the Crabbe trade and they still haven't done any good analysis.

I don't think they're fan run anymore. Some big corp bought them out I believe.

It'd be fun to have another real Blazer blog up and running again with good content like BE used to be. If anyone wants to get that rolling and writing content, I can help set up the site lol.

I still like BE a lot. Good podcasts and Dave is usually at least interesting. The comments section is amazingly active and relatively on point. I'm techmarcus on that site but read more than I post.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Wiz,
Thanks on the repeater tax. No, I didn't know, nor did I go tot he larrycoon site ... as I could have. Oh well.

And then there are sign and trade deals NOT allowed to tax teams 'over the apron' (originating and receiving), so not being a taxpayer is also about having the kind of flexibility you and others have mentioned. Again, thanks.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q20
and rule 92 are relevant.

[Khazim]

I think Dave, and probably others that work on the site, are on vacation, so stories are few and far between currently.

While I agree that it's gone down hill a bit the past couple years, I still like BE, but Dave has allowed his issues with Olshey to negatively impact his journalism, in my observation.